MISSION
The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis.
The goal of this feature is to provide you with actionable recommendations that will help you get results. The fundamental mission is to get the process right.
While it's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls, doing so without a sustainable process makes success ephemeral.
The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).
My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.
The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that have made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what Atlanta Falcons Area Scout and former SEC recruiter Alex Brown has told me over the past 8-10 years.
Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, available every Monday night during the season, is a viable source of information to kick-start your week as a fantasy GM.
The theme this week...Details aren't nitpicking, but the difference between the players considered the best in the world.
STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 13'S CLIFF'S NOTES
- Jalen Coker was the most impactful Panthers receiver in an upset of the mighty Rams. His work against man-to-man coverage is why we should expect more.
- Chris Godwin Jr. is back, and the Buccaneers made him a priority that should generate consistent fantasy return down the stretch.
- Christian Watson has been a big-play consideration since his return to the field, but his hands and tracking of the ball hold him back from becoming a true primary receiver and a fantasy WR1.
- Has A.J. Brown slowed down? Not from what I've seen. Even if he has, his game should age slowly.
- George Pickens is in for a big payday, but will he be worth it? His history suggests that he will.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. is back, and if I were a conspiracy theorist, I'd say the Cardinals wanted to inflate Harrison's statistical value as soon as possible to make people forget about Michael Wilson.
- It's not news that Jahmyr Gibbs is an awesome fantasy runner, but if you're seeking smaller backs in the NFL Draft or on NFL benches who can potentially deliver at a high level, note Gibbs' contact balance.
- One of those backs with impressive contact balance is Blake Corum. He's a must-have reserve with contributor value in any format.
- Lamar Jackson's injuries have dulled the edge of his game, but he's still, by far, the best quarterback on the Ravens' roster and capable of helping them win.
- Shedeur Sanders is not capable of helping the Browns become a stretch-run spoiler, but there is reason for hope.
1. Mr. Conversion: Jalen Coker
All Coker did on Sunday was convert third- and fourth-down targets.
Jalen Coker solid break on the out on 3rd and 7. Good transition downhill for more.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 1, 2025
Nice throw by Bryce Young#Panthers pic.twitter.com/LPy0jydw6J
Another 3rd down conversion for Jalen Coker. Good, friendly target on a low throw here. #Panthers pic.twitter.com/H3s7Yrg6AC
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 1, 2025
Jalen Coker's third late-down conversion in this game.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 1, 2025
4th and 3 vs C1 and isolated to the wide side... Jalen Coker wins off the line and scores the TD to take the lead in the mid-3rd QTR
Quick read step inside and violent wipe to get by the CB. #Panthers pic.twitter.com/5jXtTLbG65
Jalen Coker #Panthers
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 1, 2025
Fourth late-down conversion of the game. This one to seal the game.
Good job getting low to focus solely on the catch. pic.twitter.com/OYeP3QW4KH
Coker lacks the high-end athletic ability of a primary option. He's a better fit as a possession receiver, but he's the best all-around option Bryce Young has at this time, not Tetairoa McMillan.
McMillan is the future, but Coker is the best shot for Bryce Young to have a better present. For weeks, I've highlighted McMillan's usage in Carolina. Football and fantasy media tout McMillan as a legitimate primary receiver based on his rookie production.
The process underscoring McMillan's value hasn't been that of a true WR1:
- Heavily-schemed play designs with McMillan as the only option.
- McMillan's most successful targets are against zone or off-man coverage.
- McMillan's least successful plays have been against press-man coverage.
Steve Smith Sr. noted during the NFL Draft that McMillan was just the latest version of receiver type the Panthers have been drafting for years. Based on what I saw on tape at Arizona and his rookie year in Carolina, I'm inclined to agree with Smith's criticism until we see improved work against tight coverage at the line of scrimmage.
Bryce Young's career has been volatile at this point. We've seen Young look like an overwhelmed prospect who looked like he had one foot in the XFL. We've also seen Young take good defenses to the limit with his play.
Coker gives Young a receiver who doesn't need the scheme to get him open. If you're seeking a cheap addition to bolster your bench as a potential darkhorse fantasy value, Coker is a good bet.
2. Priority Looks: Chris Godwin Jr.
I had way too much confidence in Godwin's rehab this year and leaned on him as an extreme value. It didn't remotely happen.
Godwin returned this weekend, and the Buccaneers made the veteran an immediate priority. They schemed him open with favorable alignments and matchups. They sneaked Godwin through the teeth of the defense into wide-open zones.
It was Welcome Back Chris Godwin Jr. Day at the big pirate ship...
Chris Godwin Jr. #Buccaneers
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 1, 2025
Nice to see him back. All Targets.
- Good work to get open vs S on first.
- Secondary didn't keep track on second option.
- Missed throw by Baker on third.
- Dropped TD on 4th.
- Decent day as a schemed/check-down/scramble option. pic.twitter.com/ck9CMiS0NR
Godwin was the Buccaneers' leading receiver despite dropping a touchdown. I can't say Godwin looked especially explosive, but the usage appears sustainable and with room for high totals ahead.
Godwin is probably a safer bet than Jalen Coker if you're seeking a receiver to bolster your depth down the stretch, but it's more likely that Coker is available on the street.
3. Volatile: Christian Watson
Since returning to the Packers' lineup in Week 8, Watson has been WR13 in PPR formats. He has been paying his rent on fantasy rosters with his big-play ability, averaging 17.3 yards per catch.
Watson's wheelhouse as a big-play option is gaining targets where he can outrun the coverage and run under the ball.
Christian Watson TD
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 1, 2025
Get the ball in front of Watson in the vertical game and that's his wheelhouse.
Good late extension for ball placed too far inside. #Packers pic.twitter.com/dwGbk02nYt
In theory, Watson could become so much more for the Packers. Green Bay lacks a true primary option.
Romeo Doubs runs strong routes, and he's a true vertical threat, but his hands are volatile. Dontayvion Wicks is a possession-plus receiver with skill after the catch who has moments as a contested-catch option.
This week against the Lions was one of them. Wicks was the best receiver for the Packers on Sunday.
Dontayvion Wicks #Packers
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 1, 2025
3rd and 5 back shoulder placement from Love (not sure needed with that S so far to boundary).
Good stem and setup by Wicks. Good adjustment. pic.twitter.com/l8On6WbXcv
Jordan Love to Dontayvion Wicks 4th and 3 TD vs C1
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 1, 2025
Wicks with excellent focus working past CB and into S.
Wicks really leans into that CB through the wipe to avoid getting pinned to boundary and losing his line too much.#Packers pic.twitter.com/XP3bfeQ9MR
Dontavyion Wicks 4th down vs Brian Branch for the game-sealing catch.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 1, 2025
Good feet-switch release at line to get inside.
Strong high point. #Packers pic.twitter.com/WYYyhHokfd
The problem is streaky hands. Jayden Reed has the best hands on the team, but he's still rehabbing and the Packers don't see him as a true primary threat. I think they're wrong, but that has no bearing.
Matthew Golden looked like the potential heir apparent to what the Packers hoped to get from Watson, but it hasn't manifested in Year One. It brings us -- and the Packers -- back to Watson -- who had multiple opportunities to deliver a dominant performance, but his hands and body positioning to the ball aren't good enough to make it happen.
Christian Watson - Two fades...
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 1, 2025
1st: Tries turning back but contact from DB forces Watson off-balance and he never has a good position to attack the ball. Also tipped off turn a bit.
2nd: Slow turn here and tips it off. Then the clap-attack.
Positioning can be better by WR pic.twitter.com/e9vTEA9L4p
Not ideal placement from Jordan Love here, but definitely should have been caught by Christian Watson.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 1, 2025
Watson uses underhand attack above his beltline and tries trapping it into his frame.
Watson's attack choices would be a great offseason priority for him.#Packers pic.twitter.com/z2TgOkzB7f
Chrisitan Watson clap-attack drop vs Brian Branch late in game on 3rd down. pic.twitter.com/0l1ydwjLhU
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 1, 2025
Even when Watson caught the ball, there was clapping involved -- even if it wasn't easy to avoid...
Christian Watson
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 1, 2025
Excellent extension at boundary and good boundary work.
Again, clap attack form, but a difficult placement to get both hands together without clapping.
Good coordination there. #Packers pic.twitter.com/hAJERgUAqN
Watson could have doubled his output in this game with better positioning and attack. He has missed a lot of time to improve his game because of injuries and rehab.
If I could make one wish for Watson, it would be that he has a receiver coach who makes it the top priority to improve Watson's positioning of his body and his attack of the ball. I doubt it happens, but it could turn Watson into a superstar.
Continue to roll with Watson this year. Just hope he catches 1-2 targets he typically doesn't each week, and you could see him surpass 100 yards and earn multiple scores.