DFS First Look: Week 4

DFS First Look is back for Week 4. As a reminder, every projection in this article is my own, and those projections come from a simulation of every game on the slate run 10,000 times. The optimal column in each table shows how often a player landed in the best possible lineup under the salary cap across those sims, and when a player's chance of playing is below 95 percent, it shows under his name. For GPPs, comparing these optimal percentages to our percent rostered projections (assembled by Devin Knotts) is the best way to find the players who are overvalued or undervalued for the week.

We now have three games of defensive data for every team, so this is the first week the slate overview includes my Matchup Rating for every position (more on it below). A three-game sample is still noisy, which is why the rating leans on last season and the betting lines this early in the year.

Keep in mind, this article is a snapshot taken on Wednesday morning, before the first official practice reports of the week. Injury news that comes out after this goes live will change the projections, which changes the sims and can shuffle the top plays for both cash and GPP. The injury assumptions that matter most for this week's early projections are Nico Collins (hamstring), Justin Jefferson (ankle), and Puka Nacua (hip) playing, and Breece Hall (thigh) sitting. I have Collins at 65 percent to play after Adam Schefter reported he has a decent chance for Week 4, Jefferson at 75 percent, Nacua at 70 percent, and Hall at only 15 percent. Tyjae Spears (ankle) is at 40 percent, and with Caleb Williams out, the Bears are still a split between Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent until a starter is named.

Hall and Collins are the two calls with the biggest impact on the slate. With Hall out, Braelon Allen projects for 17.4 DraftKings points at $5,200 and lands in more optimal lineups than all but two running backs. If Collins sits, Dalton Schultz goes from 10.2 projected points to 15.6 at $4,800, and Xavier Hutchinson goes from 5.9 to 10.1 at $4,300, which would make both of them strong values.

Slate Overview

The slate overview is still built around implied team totals and how each one compares to that team's average implied total for the full season (based on my estimated lines for future weeks). New this week, the table also includes my Matchup Rating for each position, which is my best guess at how much this week's opponent will help or hurt that position. A rating of +10% means players at that position should score about 10 percent more than usual. It blends this season's games, judged against what those offenses usually score, with last season, the betting lines, and injuries on defense, and it trusts this season's results a little more each week. Touchdowns swing a lot from week to week, so they count for less than yards and catches. The DST column works the same way, except it rates the offense each defense is facing. For example, this week the Vikings defense has a great matchup (+29%) against the Dolphins offense, and the Patriots defense has a very tough matchup (-25%) against the Bills offense.

The Week 4 main slate is 12 games, since the London game (Colts at Commanders) kicks off at 9:30 a.m. and isn't included. Three teams have an implied total of 27 or more, and Cincinnati versus Jacksonville has the highest total on the slate at 51.5.

Buffalo tops the board at 27.75 as a 7-point home favorite over New England. Josh Allen has six rushing touchdowns through three games, two in each game, and James Cook III ran 24 times for 154 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. The Patriots have been tough on quarterbacks and tight ends so far, allowing just 13.5 and 6.2 DraftKings points per game to those positions. They have been about average against running backs this season, but they were tough on the position last season, so my Matchup Rating has this as a slightly below-average matchup for Cook (5 percent tougher than usual).

Baltimore is right behind at 27.5 as an 11.5-point home favorite over Tennessee. Derrick Henry ran 26 times for 89 yards and two touchdowns last week and has six rushing touchdowns on the season. This is a better spot for Henry than for Lamar Jackson, since the Titans have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Cincinnati (27.0) vs. Jacksonville (24.5) is the game to stack. Joe Burrow threw for 282 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3, with Ja'Marr Chase catching nine of his 12 targets for 98 yards and a touchdown and Tee Higgins adding 90 yards and a score. Jacksonville's defense has been tough on quarterbacks so far, but this game has shootout potential, since the Bengals defense gave up 30 points to the Steelers last week after holding Houston to six in Week 2. My Matchup Rating agrees, with the Jaguars' quarterback (7 percent easier than usual) and tight ends (12 percent easier) drawing two of the better matchups on the slate.

Kansas City (26.0) is a 4.5-point road favorite in Las Vegas. The Raiders have allowed the third-most points to tight ends so far, but they were tougher than average against the position last season, and three games is a small sample for tight ends, so my Matchup Rating has Travis Kelce's matchup as neutral. The more exciting matchup on this side is Ken Walker III (4 percent easier than usual), who still played 73 percent of the snaps last week despite the coaching staff talking about lessening his load.

Minnesota at 24.5 implied points is 13 percent above its average as a 10.5-point favorite over Miami, and the Dolphins have allowed more points to running backs than any defense in the league (33.9 per game, 12.5 above average). The matchup puts Aaron Jones Sr. on the radar after he received heavy usage (23 opportunities) for the second straight week.

DraftKings

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud at $5,700 is the top tournament quarterback on DraftKings at 9.1 percent of optimal lineups, and he also has the best points-per-dollar projection at the position. He threw for only 167 yards without Collins last week, but the matchup against a Dallas defense that has allowed the fourth-most points to quarterbacks is a strong one, and Houston's implied total is well above its average. The hope would be that a soft matchup and the return of Collins spark the Houston offense.

Josh Allen at $7,700 is second at 8.8 percent with the highest quarterback projection on the slate at 23.4 points. His rushing touchdowns keep carrying him, and the Bills have the highest implied total of the week. Last week, when touting James Cook III, I said Allen couldn't keep rushing for multiple touchdowns every week, but he's now done it in three straight games to start the year.

Joe Burrow at $6,800 is third at 8.1 percent in the highest-total game on the slate. The Jacksonville defense has been tough on quarterbacks, but Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are a much bigger challenge than the Browns, Broncos, and Patriots offenses the Jags have faced so far.

Running Backs

Chase Brown at $6,100 is a nice tournament play on DraftKings, landing in 17.1 percent of the optimal lineups in my early-week sims. He has 49 carries and 13 targets through three games. He's been a bit unlucky in terms of fantasy points, and this matchup isn't great (3 percent tougher than usual), but the price tag is hard to ignore for a true workhorse back on an offense with a 27-point implied total.

Ken Walker III at $8,200 ranks second at 15.6 percent optimal with the highest running back projection at 22.9 points. He scored twice in Week 3, once as a runner and once as a receiver, and the Chiefs are 4.5-point favorites. With Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson off the main slate, Walker will be an even more popular option than normal.

Braelon Allen at $5,200 is third at 14.4 percent, and it feels safe to assume Breece Hall will miss at least one week. With Hall out, Allen projects as the Jets' lead back against a Chicago defense that has been about average against the position (with a whole lot of variance). These underpriced injury fill-ins at running back typically end up being rostered at a very high rate.

James Cook III at $7,400 (14.1 percent) and Christian McCaffrey at $7,700 (13.2 percent) are both strong tournament plays. Cook is coming off his best game of the season. McCaffrey gets a Denver defense that has allowed plenty of points to running backs so far, but the Broncos were tough on the position last season, so my Matchup Rating calls it a neutral matchup, and his projection rests on his role in the offense.

Aaron Jones Sr. at $6,000 is a strong matchup play. He had 17 carries and six targets in Week 3, and Miami has been the most generous defense in the league against running backs.

Wide Receivers