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If You're Not (A) First, You're (Probably) Last

If you're drafting a rookie tight end who wasn't a first-round NFL draft pick, you're probably burning a roster spot. For decades, the rule of thumb was simple: ignore rookie tight ends entirely while they spend a year or two learning how to block. But the last few seasons have shattered that script. From Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers hitting overall TE1 finishes to a massive 2025 rookie class anchored by Harold Fannin Jr. and Tyler Warren, first-year tight ends are suddenly league-winners. The good news? Cracking the rookie tight end code is actually incredibly simple, and the math screams exactly where you should place your bets.

Historically, it was easy to ignore rookie tight ends. The positional demands of learning blocking schemes and route-running meant a prolonged adjustment process. Many of the NFL's all-time best tight ends struggled to make their mark as rookies:

• Antonio Gates (TE20)
• Tony Gonzalez (TE19)
• Jimmy Graham (TE23)
• Shannon Sharpe (TE34)
• Jason Witten (TE23)

But something strange has happened over the last few seasons. Rookie tight ends started making a real impact, including producing the No. 1 overall player at the position in both 2023 and 2024:

• Brock Bowers, TE1 (2024)
• Sam LaPorta, TE1 (2023)

Last year's rookie crop didn't reach those same heights, but one might argue it was the deepest group of contributors we've seen in some time:

• Harold Fannin Jr., TE8
• Tyler Warren, TE9
• Colston Loveland, TE12
• Oronde Gadsden, TE16

Here's the good news: Unlike the other fantasy skill positions, cracking the rookie tight end code is easy. If they weren't a first-round draft pick, you can probably ignore them.

Numbers Don't Lie

• 141 tight ends were drafted from 2016 to 2025 (10 seasons).
• 19 of those (13%) finished in the Top 24, which is the threshold for full-season fantasy relevance in 12-team leagues that start one tight end plus at least one flex spot.
• Only 8 (6%) finished as top-12 fantasy tight ends.

Now let's look at those 19 fantasy-caliber rookie tight ends with draft capital added to the conversation.

Top-24 Rookie Fantasy Tight Ends (2016-2025), Sorted by Fantasy Points

• 9 of 19 (47%) were first-round picks.
• 4 (21%) were drafted in the second round.
• 2 (11%) were third-rounders.
• 2 (11%) were fourth-round picks.
• 2 (11%) were taken in the fifth round.
• 0 (0%) sixth-rounders ranked.
• 0 (0%) seventh-rounders ranked.
• 0 (0%) undrafted rookie free agents ranked.

For further context, here are the 10-year hit rates for rookie tight ends, by round:

Top-24 Hit Rate by NFL Draft Round (2016-2025)

And here are the 10-year hit rates for rookie tight ends, by draft day:

Top-24 Hit Rate (%) by NFL Draft Day (2016-2025)

Day 1 (Round 1): In the last 10 years, 11 tight ends were drafted in the first round, and nine (81.8%) finished as top-24 fantasy players. Impressively, six (54.5%) of them finished as starting-caliber (Top 12) assets.

Day 2 (Rounds 2 and 3): 43 tight ends heard their names called on Day 2 over the last decade, and only six (14.0%) finished as top-24 players. Harold Fannin Jr. (3rd round) joined Sam LaPorta as the only Day 2 picks to crack the Top 12 in their first seasons.

Day 3 (Rounds 4 through 7): Only four (4.6%) Day 3 rookies have logged top-24 finishes, out of 87 drafted players. None finished in the Top 12.

Why It Matters, aka, Don't Forget About Kenyon Sadiq