DraftKings GPP Domination Week 1

Slate Overview

Week 1 is Awesome

Welcome to Week 1 of the NFL season, where the only certainty is uncertainty. Responsible bankroll management should always be foundational to your approach, but Week 1 is overflowing with opportunity if you're willing to embrace volatility and lean into your strongest convictions.

In my experience, there isn't a better week to play NFL DFS all season:

• The contests are softer and bigger - The fantasy football community has been waiting nine months for action. Week 1 brings more casual money into prize pools while DraftKings rolls out some of its largest guarantees of the season. More opponents making mistakes and more money available to win is a fun combination we don't see often.
  
  
• Pricing is less efficient - Week 1 salaries were released before depth charts, injuries, and preseason developments fully settled. Roles have changed, rookies have emerged, and some assumptions DraftKings baked into their player salaries are already outdated. We'll rarely have as many inefficiencies to exploit.
  
  
• Ownership is less reliable - With so much still unknown, the field will lean too heavily on last year's stats and a bunch of flimsy preseason narratives. The resulting false confidence around certain players and game environments will create favorable ownership opportunities.

Bottom line: By next week, we'll know more. DraftKings will know more. Our opponents will know more. Week 1 gives us our best chance to take advantage before everyone catches up.

Top Game Environments

Targeting games where multiple players can hit their ceilings together is the foundation of building winning GPP lineups.

Games in bold indicate low projected ownership despite favorable scoring conditions.

Identifying Common Roster Construction

Identifying the most common roster construction helps us find ways to gain leverage without sacrificing ceiling.

QB: The New Orleans at Detroit game will have the highest collective ownership on the slate, yet Jared Goff ($6,000) and Tyler Shough ($5,600) shouldn't exceed middling popularity because quarterback pricing is tightly clustered. At only $100 more than Goff and $500 more than Shough, the field will gravitate to Justin Herbert ($6,100), whose Chargers host the Cardinals as this week's largest home favorites. Those looking for additional savings will likely land on Kyler Murray ($5,500), who provides a rushing floor and is priced as though he hadn't decisively beaten J.J. McCarthy for the starting job in training camp.

RB: Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000) is the mega-chalk. Vegas has his odds of scoring an anytime touchdown at a massively juiced -330, and we should expect him to approach 50% tournament ownership. Without the need to spend heavily at quarterback, tight end, and defense, we should see more spending at RB2 and Flex. Bijan Robinson ($7,700) will show up alongside Gibbs in plenty of lineups. The miraculously healthy Ashton Jeanty ($6,600) is also a standout play in a plus matchup against Miami, especially with the Raiders' only other established target earner, Brock Bowers, suddenly sidelined due to knee surgery.

WR: The crowd won't have trouble rostering Ja'Marr Chase ($7,800) in a potential shootout against Tampa Bay, despite the heavy running back spending. Stars-and-scrubs builds that include Gibbs, Robinson, and Chase will require punting at least one wide receiver slot. Don't be surprised to see Tre Tucker ($4,000) show up frequently as a salary-saver with Bowers' absence opening up additional targets. More balanced lineups that forgo Chase (or Amon-Ra St. Brown) will look to Chris Olave ($6,700) and a deep group of WR2 options in the $6K range, headlined by Ladd McConkey ($5,900) and Garrett Wilson ($5,800).

TE: Juwan Johnson ($3,700) was the only show in town before the Bowers injury was revealed. Now, it appears Michael Mayer ($2,900) may triple his GPP ownership. In four games without Bowers last year, Mayer averaged 10.9 DraftKings points per game, making him an easy click at a near-minimum salary that helps fit Gibbs, Robinson, and Chase into the same lineup.

Flip the Common Build: Spending all the way up to Trey McBride ($6,800) at tight end is the easiest way to force yourself into a unique build. McBride may have been a questionable pick in redraft leagues, but the concerns tied to his season-long outlook don't apply this week. The Cardinals are visiting LA as 9.5-point underdogs. Mike LeFleur and Nathaniel Hackett want to run the ball a lot more than Arizona did last year, but those plans won't survive long if the Chargers build an early lead. McBride outscored the next-closest tight end by 110 DraftKings points in 2025, and with Bowers off the slate, a pass-heavy game script, and only 5-7% projected ownership, he gives you a realistic shot at being one of the two or three players you need to win this week. 

Core Targets

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson ($6,800) - If the field pays up from Herbert, Joe Burrow ($6,900) is the more likely choice, leaving Jackson lightly owned. His 2025 season quickly unraveled after a Week 4 hamstring injury was followed by knee, ankle, toe, and back issues. Before that, he was doing what Lamar Jackson does, leading all quarterbacks in DraftKings scoring through three weeks.  Now healthy, playing for his next contract, and working with a 29-year-old offensive coordinator from the Ben Johnson tree, Jackson is positioned for a return to form against Indianapolis. He has a long history of torching Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo's scheme, averaging 31.2 DraftKings points over their last four meetings, dating back to Anarumo's tenure with Cincinnati.

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Additional Targets

Jalen Hurts ($6,600) - We don't yet know if the Commanders were successful in overhauling a defense that surrendered a league-leading 6,533 total yards last season, but we do know they'll be working in eight new starters and adjusting to a new scheme. The Eagles should also control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, setting Hurts up for long drives and favorable field position. Washington has no one on the roster who can stay with Devonta Smith downfield, giving Hurts the explosive-play upside we're looking for in tournaments, to go along with his trustworthy role at the goal line. 

Baker Mayfield ($5,900) - The field is eager to play the Bengals side of a potential shootout, but not many will access the game with the highest implied total on the slate through Tampa Bay. Like Jackson, Mayfield is coming off an injury-plagued, disappointing season. But he’ll never be healthier than he is in Week 1, and over his first three season openers with Tampa Bay, he has posted a 114.5 passer rating with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. Stack him with Chris Godwin Jr. ($5,200), who should spend most of the game away from D.J. Turner's coverage while working from the slot.

Malik Willis ($5,300) - How Willis' efficient spot-duty performances in Green Bay will translate to a starting role in Miami remains an open question. We can at least be confident that Willis can pad his floor with rushing production; defenses still don't have much tape on him, and this matchup might reveal his ceiling. The Raiders finished 27th in pressure rate last year and 25th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They were also vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, allowing the fourth-most rushing yards on designed quarterback runs and six rushing touchdowns, tied for third-most. At this price and 2-3% ownership, it's worth betting the flashes Willis showed as a Packer were real. As Jeff Bell noted on this week's DFS Show, both of the Dolphins' top receivers are priced at or near the site minimum, allowing you to spend freely at every other position. 

Running Back

Omarion Hampton ($6,800) - Speaking of flimsy preseason narratives driving Week 1 ownership, Hampton is Exhibit A. One out-of-context Mike McDaniel quote from early August was enough to cut his projected ownership in half. The matchup sets up perfectly for a Chargers running back, and if LA is protecting a second-half lead, Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal aren't the backs we should expect to close it out. If you believe Hampton is the best runner on this roster, you'll never make more money being right on that conviction than you will this week. Jahmyr Gibbs is roughly three times as likely to make the optimal lineup, but he'll be about five times as rostered. It's not to say Gibbs is a bad tournament play, but the contrast makes it clear Hampton is being rostered way less often than his upside warrants. 

Additional Targets

D'Andre Swift ($6,100) - Fresh off signing a new contract that pays him $27.5 million guaranteed, Swift could be in for a busy day in Carolina. Backup Kyle Monangai is off the injury report, but he's coming off a hyperextended knee that cost him nearly all of training camp. Regardless of Monangai's readiness, Swift is Chicago's lead back in a matchup that sets up nicely for rushing production. The additions of linebackers Devin Lloyd and Bobby Okereke should help a Panthers run defense that allowed 4.4 yards per carry, surrendered 20 rushing touchdowns, and ranked 27th in EPA per rush last season. But even a sizable improvement may not be enough to contain Swift, whose 13.5% explosive run rate ranked sixth among qualifying running backs. 

Jaylen Warren ($5,400) - Warren's 60% share of Pittsburgh's rush attempts may decline with the addition of Mike McCarthy favorite Rico Dowdle, but he's better suited than Dowdle to inherit the receiving role left behind by Kenny Gainwell's departure. Gainwell ranked fourth among running backs with 73 receptions, which should shock no one who has watched Aaron Rodgers since he left Green Bay. Rodgers loathes getting hit at this stage of his career and is a lock to once again finish near the top of the league in running back target percentage. Warren is relatively cheap and too boring a name to attract the Week 1 crowd, but with DraftKings' full PPR scoring, one touchdown may be all he needs to reach 25 DraftKings points.

Chase Brown ($7,100) - The field is chasing Cincinnati's 27-point implied team total with Burrow/Chase stacks, but Brown topped 30 DraftKings points in two of his last three games to close out 2025. His $7,100 salary sits in an awkward range, with most entrants more likely to pay up for Jonathan Taylor ($7,300) or Bijan Robinson ($7,700), or drop down to Ashton Jeanty ($6,600). That should leave Brown lightly owned both as a one-off and in Burrow stacks. Remember, Brown has four receiving touchdowns over his last five games with Burrow.

Wide Receiver

Devonta Smith ($6,600) - It was a toss-up between Smith and Hampton as this week's cover boy, but Smith takes it by a narrow margin. With A.J. Brown currently on IR in New England, Philadelphia's target distribution should consolidate considerably. Smith's competition comes from rookie slot receiver Makai Lemon, who barely saw the field this offseason because of a hamstring injury, and Dontayvion Wicks, an intriguing talent who wouldn't be considered a reliable No. 2 receiver on most NFL rosters. Against Washington, Smith should see plenty of Mike Sainristil, who allowed 67 catches and nine touchdowns in coverage last year, good for the second-most fantasy points allowed per route defended. Smith's projected ownership is around half of where it should be.

Additional Targets

Luther Burden III ($5,500) - Our roster percentage projections, along with most around the industry, have Burden in the 8-10% range. Given the steam he gained this offseason in season-long leagues, it wouldn't be surprising if that number lands closer to 15-18% once the cards are flipped, but the value still looks too strong to pass up. Burden recorded an impressive 2.83 yards per route run as a rookie, ranking third among all wide receivers who ran at least 200 routes. We can't project the same efficiency now that he's in a full-time role, but his chances of being mispriced by roughly $1,000 are strong enough to live with even the high end of his possible ownership range.

Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5,000) - The case for Harrison is essentially the same as the one above for Trey McBride. We're going to see a ton of Justin Herbert stacks, but none of the Cardinals' run-back options are gaining much popularity. Harrison is a distressed asset across all fantasy football formats. His ceiling may not be what we once imagined, but he's still plenty capable of returning 3.5x at this salary in a trailing game script. At $500 less than his Week 1 cost last year and only 5% projected ownership, Harrison can help your lineup separate.

DJ Moore ($5,600) - The Texans defense has made Bills players radioactive to the field. While Josh Allen has historically struggled against Houston, everything we've seen from Buffalo this offseason points to Moore operating as Allen's unquestioned WR1. The matchup against elite cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter gives Moore a low floor, but who cares? We're chasing first place in tournaments, not safety. Moore may not exceed three percent rostered, which is too low for Allen's top target, regardless of opponent. 

Tight End

Mark Andrews ($3,900) - Zay Flowers is a fine correlation play with Lamar Jackson, but if we're looking to capture Baltimore's passing touchdowns, Andrews is the better bet. He's also cheaper and more contrarian. Even in a down year, Andrews led Baltimore with 28% of the team's targets inside the 20 and 36% inside the 10. The Colts allowed the second-most receiving yards to tight ends in 2025, along with the third-most red-zone targets and seventh-most fantasy points to the position.

Additional Targets

Tucker Kraft ($4,500) - Our resident sports medicine guru, Adam Hutchison, laid out the risks of underestimating how Kraft's recovery from a torn ACL can hamper his early-season production. Still, we know he is capable of leading all tight ends in scoring in any given week, and if any Packers pass-catcher can give Brian Flores' defense fits, Kraft is the guy. Minnesota's defense under Flores relies heavily on zone-match concepts rather than straight man-to-man coverage. Kraft excels at finding the soft spots in zones and turning short receptions into explosive plays, leading all tight ends in yards after catch per game by a wide margin last season. If his YAC ability is already back, we'll regret passing on Kraft over concerns about the knee.

Charlie Kolar ($2,500) - Kolar makes sense as a low-owned pivot off Michael Mayer. He signed a big-money deal in the offseason, sits atop the Chargers' tight end depth chart, and by all accounts will lead the position in snaps this week. Kolar works as a one-off leverage play or as a cheap way to make otherwise popular Herbert stacks less chalky. At the site minimum, a couple of catches and a touchdown would be enough to pay off his salary. 

Stack of the Week

Stacking lets one correct prediction about a game environment pay off across multiple spots in your lineup.

Jalen Hurts + Devonta Smith

• Combined projected ownership ~18%
• Projected fantasy points ~36
• Projected median points per dollar  ~2.8
• Where to use it - Tournaments of all sizes
• How it pays off - A healthy offensive line and still-pitiful Washington defense make Sean Mannion's offense an easy transition for Hurts. Smith soaks up targets with A.J. Brown gone and burns Sainristil and the rest of Washington's secondary downfield. Hurts adds at least one goal-line touchdown and the Eagles roll to a blowout win. Adding Dallas Goedert or Saquon Barkley in a full Philadelphia onslaught is also in play.

Contrarian Value Play of the Week

The best cheap plays combine low ownership with enough ceiling to separate your lineup while unlocking salary for higher-priced core plays.

Vikings Defense $2,800 - We don't usually talk DST here in GPP Domination, but Minnesota is worth highlighting. In tournaments, you often need only one or two sub-5% rostered plays to separate from the field, and DST is a good place to find that kind of volatility. While Kraft could give Minnesota problems, the rest of this matchup favors the Vikings, especially in the trenches. Green Bay is relying on a young and shaky interior offensive line to handle the complex stunts and delayed blitzes Brian Flores can dial up with Dallas Turner and Andrew Van Ginkel. Multiple sacks and turnovers are in play, giving Minnesota a path to swing tournaments with a defensive touchdown.