You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
1. Sigmund Bloom's Sleepers
When you've spent nearly 20 years studying and writing about football, there will come a time when you forget that most people play fantasy football for fun. It's an escape from the responsibilities of life, a chance to socialize with friends and family, and an opportunity to vent healthy emotion.
Even if many fans watch sports channels and listen to sports radio for an unsettling number of hours a day, most don't have the time to do all of the legwork required to be ahead of narratives they these outlets will likely broach only after a player emerges on the national stage. Sigmund Bloom's ability to meld storyline with player potential and project opportunity makes his Sleepers column a valuable resource to those who have normal lives—and if you're scoffing at sleeper lists, this is my chance to hold the mirror in front of your face and tell you that your life is no longer normal.
Now, that's ok, if that's your choice. If not, well, I wish you a productive wakeup call.
Here are some of his sleepers that caught my eye from Bloom's weekly feature:
Brian Hill, ATL (at Carolina) - Hill is in a good spot because the Falcons have re-dedicated themselves to the run just in time to face a defense that is strong against the pass and weak against a ground attack. Hill is a three-down back with functional passing game skills, and his no-nonsense downhill style will suit the game plan. The Panthers have given up 12 touchdowns to running backs in the last four games and no fewer than two in any of those games. They have kept opposing running backs from scoring only once this year.
Matt's Thoughts: Hill starred at Wyoming in a gap scheme. Dirk Koetter has implemented a lot more gap runs in his scheme than what we've seen in Atlanta under Kyle Shanahan and Steve Sarkisian. Hill was also the star of Falcons training camp prior to the preseason where his inconsistent play cost him a real shot at unseating Ito Smith for the No.2 job. Atlanta's like has played better in recent weeks, so Hill is worth priority consideration.
Miles Sanders, PHI (vs New England) - The Eagles have their work cut out for them on Sunday, but at least they have a pair of quality backs to hopefully frustrate Bill Belichick to compensate for a lack of quality receivers. Sanders has been a dangerous downfield receiver this year and the best matchups for the Eagles passing game will be when Sanders runs routes against a linebacker while the Patriots mediocre run defense has to contend with Jordan Howard.
Matt's Thoughts: I concur with the linebacker matchup as the primary reason to consider Sanders. I also like that Philadelphia implemented more gap schemes last week so Sanders had simpler decisions. Sanders produced between the tackles as a gap runner compared to his difficulty reading defenders and finding holes as a zone runner for much of the year.
Derek Carr, OAK (vs Cincinnati) - Carr gets a Bengals defense this week that has been rolling over and asking opposing quarterbacks to scratch their belly. Jared Goff and Mason Rudolph have had among their best days of the season against the Bengals even though they barely passed in the second half against them. Carr has a variety of pass-catchers and a good offensive architect in Jon Gruden to make this go well on Sunday.
Matt's Thoughts: Carr's play has been better than his fantasy production. Both should be strong this weekend and I would not expect much of a pass rush, either.
Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow, OAK (vs Cincinnati) - The Bengals defense has been generous to receivers lately with four scores allowed in the last three games, including a 220-yard game to Cooper Kupp in a blowout and at least 50 receiving yards to three different Jaguars receivers. Williams has been slowed down by Darius Slay and Casey Hayward in recent weeks, but the Bengals don’t have a #1 corner of that caliber. Renfrow has at least four catches and 40 receiving yards in each of the last three games, including scores in two games.
Matt's Thoughts: Renfrow has always been an excellent route runner and his acclimation has progressed to the point that we're seeing it happen on NFL fields.
Randall Cobb, DAL (at Detroit) - Cobb has stayed healthy this year and he is coming on as a fantasy factor. He has six catches in each of the last two games and reeled in a long score from Dak Prescott last week that was reminiscent of prime Cobb from his Packers days with Aaron Rodgers. The Lions will have Darius Slay trying to keep up with Amari Cooper and Rashaan Melvin on Michael Gallup, so Cobb could be a preferred target.
Matt's Thoughts: Dak Prescott has played well and his confidence in Cobb was strong during training camp and it's beginning to translate to the regular season. Cobb's target count is encouraging and Prescott's willingness to buy time and make throws downfield as a scrambler is a great match with Cobb, who worked in the same circumstances so well with Aaron Rodgers.
Gerald Everett, LAR (vs Chicago) - The logic that makes Woods a nice sleeper this week also makes Everett a preferred tight end option if you don’t have one of the obvious TE1s. Everett is coming off of a good performance (8-68) that saw him function as an outlet when the Steelers were getting pressure on Jared Goff and taking away Cooper Kupp. The Bears have been vulnerable against the tight end lately, allowing Zach Ertz to break out of a slump, giving up a score to Josh Hill, and surrendering 10 catches for over 100 yards to Raiders' tight ends.
Matt's Thoughts: Everett is a hot commodity and I would roll with him based on his hot streak alone. However, the football side of the equation is compelling to support this notion. Everett has Goff's trust, he wins downfield as both an outside and inside option, and he's a tough runner after the catch. Stylistically, he's similar to Titans reserve tight end Jonnu Smith but even better.
2. Roundtable: Hot-Cold Running Backs
One of my weekly roles at Footballguys is to moderate our season-long roundtable. I pose questions to our crack staff of writers that attempt to cover the gamut of topics that pertain to a wide variety of season-long formats.
This week, I picked backs who have been on a four-week hot streak or four-week cold streak relative to their overall production. I asked the writers to pick the players from these lists whose hot and cold streaks would end:
Waldman: These players have been hotter or cooler for the past four weeks compared to the season-long performance.
Hot RBs (Past four weeks vs. the entire season)--Gordon and his decision to hold out doesn't count despite his top-10 production since returning. Murray's injury-generated role due to Alvin Kamara's missed time also doesn't count.
- Jamaal Williams No.6 PPR (No.25 season-long)
- Saquon Barkley No.11 PPR (No.18 season-long)
- Tevin Coleman No.15 PPR (No.35 season-long prior to MNF)
Cold RBs (Past four weeks vs. the entire season)
- Mark Ingram II II No.31 PPR (No.11 season-long)
- Phillip Lindsay No.32 PPR (No.13 season-long)
- Jordan Howard No.34 PPR (No.20 season-long)
Which player in the Hot Category is most likely to cool off? Which player in the Cold Category is most likely to heat up?
Simpkins: As much as it pains me to say it, it’s likely to be Jamaal Williams. Matt Breida got dinged up yet again on Monday Night Football and if he misses significant time, that will mean that most of the touches in the offense go to Coleman.
Saquon Barkley is dealing with an undisclosed minor injury himself, but it appears he’s in no danger of missing games. I expect that he’ll remain his usual productive self. That leaves Williams. He’s the only one on the list who’s going to have to play in a true committee, and while it’s a productive one, it’s obvious that Aaron Jones is the more valuable part of that pairing.
Mark Ingram II II is the most likely to heat back up because of the quality of the offense. Lamar Jackson has been scooting into the end zone himself and throwing for touchdowns, not leaving many red-zone looks for Ingram.
Earlier in the year, Ingram had been benefiting from having and converting some short-yardage opportunities. While I don’t think Ingram gets back to finishing the number 11 back in PPR, I do think he’ll finish much higher than 31st as scoring opportunities normalize.
Hicks: Without a doubt, the player to heat up should be Phillip Lindsay. Denver has a nice run home and it is clear that Lindsay is the preferred option in this backfield.
It is also evident that his recent decline is due to a lack of production as a receiver for some reason. He is too good not to be utilized by the Broncos and as defenses start to tire he is the perfect back to take advantage.
The hot player to cool down award has to go to Jamaal Williams. Five touchdowns in the last four games is a clear anomaly, especially with four as a receiver. Williams does not see enough of the ball to remain a consistent option with only three games above seven carries a game. He is a nice borderline RB2/flex option, which is where his season-long stats tell the truer picture.
Wood: HOT to COLD will be Jamaal Williams, clearly, because he's not the lead back for Green Bay. Aaron Jones continues to dominate, and Williams' value is going to be far more game-specific.
COLD to HOT will be Mark Ingram II II remains the top back in Baltimore, and the Ravens have put the league on notice in the last two weeks. While he's going to share touches and goal-line runs with Lamar Jackson and, to a lesser extent, Gus Edwards, Ingram remains a proven grinder and short-yardage asset.
Haseley: Likely to cool off? Jamaal Williams. As many have indicated, Williams' presence among the top backs is due to his affinity for scoring touchdowns - 5 in the last five games. Once those touchdowns subside, Williams will return to a flex option, at best. Only one of those five games did he surpass 65 total yards. Scoring alone can't justify consistency in fantasy terms. It should be an indicator to consider trading him if you have him.
Likely to heat up? Mark Ingram II II. The Ravens offense is clicking on all cylinders. Ingram has 8 touchdowns in nine games with two multi-score games. He also has three 100-yard rushing games and he consistently sees double-digit carries per game. The scoring should continue and expect him to roll for 100 yards every three games.
Settle: Looking at this list of hot running backs it is easy to see how Jamaal Williams will cool down over time and return to his mean. He has played very well as a receiver and those numbers should not continue. With Davante Adams coming back healthy the Packers will look like a totally different team. Five touchdowns in dour weeks is a great stretch, but he will not come anywhere close to that for the rest of the season.
Mark Ingram II II is the back that will get things going down the stretch for the Ravens. They simply have not needed him so far this season and that has caused the lack of production. There is no point wearing down your lead back when the team is up by multiple touchdowns and that has caused the dip in usage. As the games get closer and the Ravens are truly playing for something, expect Ingram to put up solid numbers the rest of the way.
Parsons: In a firm committee, Jamaal Williams is likely to cool off outside of an Aaron Jones injury. The schedule of rushing defenses also is tough for Green Bay through the end of the season outside of Week 14 against Washington.
I will buy Phillip Lindsay as a riser from the past month. Denver's schedule turns optimistic with Buffalo, Kansas City, and Detroit left with strong projections for opposing backs and the Chargers another positive matchup.
Schofield: I think the player likely to cool off is Barkley.
Waldman: Look at you with the answer many wouldn't expect!
Schofield: That be me...
The Jets did a good job of bottling him up as a runner last week and turned him basically into a receiving option. However, when you study him in the Giants' offense, his ability in pass protection is impressive. That might mean fewer and fewer opportunities for him as a receiver since he will be tasked with pass protection responsibilities. Add to that his recent injury, and there is a recipe for regression.
Now I may very well be an outlier here again, but I'll go with Jordan Howard as a player with a chance to heat up. Obviously the Eagles have a huge stretch of games coming up, as they play New England and Seattle over the next few weeks.
Coaches from the Andy Reid tree (including Doug Pederson) have enjoyed success against Belichick, and I expect that to continue this week. The Eagles have also been using more and more of Howard and Miles Sanders in the backfield at the same time, so I think Howard's usage is going to increase as well over the next few games.
Matt's Thoughts: I like Mark's thoughts on Barkley as an unlikely candidate to cool off. I also think Wood's pick of Ingram to heat up is an obvious and sound choice. Jamaal Williams as the most likely cool-off candidate seems dictated more by data trends than by context of the film so I'm less inclined to agree with them. Williams pounded the rock well last week.
3. Chad Parson's New Reality Tackles 2020 Free AGent Quarterbacks
Parson's weekly dynasty feature delivers a tiered ranking of potential 2020 free agent passers and his thoughts about them and potential landing spots for free agents. Since Parson's top tier consists of "odd-on favorites to return to their current team," let's focus on his second tier and his projection for best landing spots:
Winston and Mariota represent the top-2 of the 2015 NFL Draft. Winston survived as the starter in Tampa Bay longer than Mariota in Tennessee, but Ryan Tannehill is a far superior option than anything Tampa Bay could pivot to after losing Ryan Fitzpatrick of note from their 2018 depth chart. Both are sub-.500 options in 60+ starts. Winston is leading the NFL in interceptions and sacks through Week 10 and below 60% completion rate for the first time since his rookie season. Mariota's near-69% completion rate from 2018 eroded to a career-low 59% this year and he took more than four sacks per game and Mariota's Bad Throw Rate is in the same zone as Winston, who has been a long-discussed too big of a risk-taker with his decisions and accuracy over the years.
Bridgewater excelled with his first significant starting stint since his 2016 injury. Bridgewater went 5-0 with 68% completion rate and 9-2 TD-INT ratio, including two game-winning drives along the way. Bridgewater is earmarked to garner starting interest in the offseason and could be the top option if the three top tier quarterbacks all return to their present teams.
Tannehill has a better career profile than Winston and Mariota with a near-.500 record and 131-79 TD-INT ratio and posting one of his best career stretches in 2019. Tannehill has an 8-4 TD-INT ratio, 71% completion rate, 3-1 record, two fourth-down comebacks, and career-best 8.5 YPA and TD rate. Tannehill still offers rushing upside with more than three rushes per game and nearly 14 yards per contest.
- JaguarsThe Buccaneers, Titans, and Bengals are projected to have starting opening for next season. All have some cornerstone offensive weapons with Tampa Bay being the best of the trio to build around with a quarterback. Kyle Allen is an exclusive rights free agent in Carolina with minimal pedigree and Cam Newton has minimal dead cap remaining as Carolina could save $19 million if moving on. The Dolphins and Jaguars have veterans and young quarterbacks on the roster but little stability to point to ignoring options via the draft and/or free agency in 2020. The Bears make the list with Mitchell Trubisky in the crosshairs of weekly criticism and holding back an otherwise strong roster through 10 weeks in 2019, failing to make any progress from 2018.
Matt's Thoughts: I think it would be a major shock if Winston or Mariota remains with his original team. I'm rooting for Bridgewater to stay in New Orleans because I think it's a golden opportunity for him to have a strong career as a starter there—even if it begins in his late 20's/early 30's due to Brees' longevity.
Bridgewater is not a great vertical passer and it's not necessary for him to be in New Orleans. I think he'd be mismatched in other schemes that are mentioned above. He could do solid work for the Bears and Panthers but I think his lack of vertical accuracy might hold back the development of offenses that would like to attack downfield in Chicago and Carolina.
Unless Will Grier's development has hit a major roadblock, I can see the Panthers opting for a free agent as a placeholder if they don't move on from Newton. Although this will sound odd to most fans and what you read in the media, most teams bake-in the potential for rookie quarterbacks to need a year of development time and coaching staff's usually get an idea of a player's readiness—or lack thereof—by early summer before training camp. I expect Grier to be ready to compete next year.
I would bet on the Buccaneers to draft a quarterback and sign a veteran to aid in the transition from Winston to a new hopeful franchise option. The Bengals may do the same considering they are renowned for being cheap and signing a free agent quarterback that was a former starter hoping to revitalize his career might be expensive (Thinkik Winston and Mariota).
I think Winston could wind up on a team like the Texans and Mariota on the 49ers or Rams.
4. The Gut Check on Josh Gordon's next journey
Our fantasy audience is on a spectrum. On one end, there are the readers who want the answers to the test and a simple explanation of available options ranging from safe to high-risk.
On the other, there are veteran players who have the time and inclination to do research and consider every possible edge—even the ones where fantasy writers will tell you aren't wise.
Josh Gordon is one of those players and I devote this week's Gut Check to supplying the optimistic potential for Gordon—if you're not writing him off for his addiction, which honestly, is a perfectly good reason to so.
The arguments in favor of Gordon highlight the blindspots we often have as fans and football writers if we're not studying the game on a deeper level. I explain why Gordon performed well in a Patriots offense that is more demanding on receivers than any scheme in the NFL. I also argue that the reason for moving on from Gordon wasn't his declining play but Tom Brady's game no longer making Gordon a good fit for the offense:
Based on the film portfolios of Gordon and the other receivers listed, we can't conclude that these players were all past their prime. However, this is what happens when receivers fail out of New England.
The truth lies with Randy Moss. Considered past his prime before arriving in New England, Moss teamed with Brady to blow the lid off the league and earn Bill Belichick's praise as the smartest receiver that the coach has been around.
Moss' trajectory confirms what the Patriots are saying: Performing well in the New England offense requires skills that aren't as in demand to be successful elsewhere. Unfortunately, we like simple answers to our football conundrums. Josh Gordon didn't have the success to match his promise? He's not good anymore...
Despite not delivering as Randy Moss II, Gordon was more successful than most of the receivers listed above. NFL.Com's Mike Giardi assessed Gordon's impact on the Patriots offense during the 2018 season, and it's clear that Gordon was a difference-maker despite not having Moss's supporting talents in their primes such as Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker, and Aaron Hernandez:
The difference in New England's offensive output with and without Gordon, who played for the Patriots from Weeks 4-15, is a reminder of just how gifted the 28-year-old is. The Pats' production was better when Gordon was active, as they threw for slightly more than 60 yards per game and scored 2.5 points more per contest. Gordon's 18 yards per catch placed him second in the entire league, trailing only then-Bucs receiver DeSean Jackson (now with the Eagles). And Tom Brady averaged 11.3 yards per attempt to Gordon, which is the best mark of any Brady-to-receiver combo since 2006, according to Pro Football Focus. The sample size is small, but that's better than Brady to Randy Moss (9.2) and Brady to Rob Gronkowski (10.3).
It took a few games and a bye week to establish an efficient connection between the pair. Once it did, the production took off. What's most interesting about the Gordon and Brady on-field relationship is the routes that succeeded and failed during their time together.
Gordon's insertion into the lineup wasn't an instant success, though -- he averaged just three catches for 41.3 yards through his first three games -- and it took some trial and error to figure out what worked best between he and Brady. For instance, Brady had a completion rate of 50 percent or less when targeting Gordon on go, back-shoulder, post, out and corner routes, per PFF. He was just 2-of-7 on the back-shoulder routes and 2-of-5 on the go routes, although two of Gordon's four touchdowns did come via those routes...
Much of Gordon's production came courtesy of slants and in-routes, which highlight the wideout's massive 6-foot-3, 225-pound frame and willingness to play physically. With New England combining Gordon's size with Brady's accuracy, the opposition's smaller, lighter defensive backs often found themselves in situations where they couldn't win, unable to go through Gordon or to work around him. The numbers don't lie: Brady was 11-of-15 for 145 yards when targeting Gordon on slants, and 8-of-9 for 198 yards and a TD on in-routes.
While Gordon is a beast on slants and in-breaking routes, he's as dangerous on the deeper routes that Brady could not deliver to him as consistently. These deeper routes also require more time in the pocket and this year, the Patriots' offensive line has been the offense's greatest weakness.
If Brady doesn't earn time for deeper routes, he's not going to be as effective in this phase of the game and that capped Gordon's upside. We credit the Patriots and other winning organizations for making difficult choices with talented players. Our community devotes a lot of air time to the idea that Gordon is no longer good. It's possible that the Patriots determined that Gordon was no longer a match for the surrounding talent and the direction of the scheme.
This leads to the next subject: Brady's skill set.
TOM BRADY IS STILL GOOD BUT HIS QUARTERBACKING STYLE WAS NEVER AN ISLAND
Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes II II, (prime) Cam Newton, and Aaron Rodgers possess the combination of skills to force opponents to respect the vertical game without a strong offensive line. Brady has never been that quarterback.
The losses to the Patriots offensive line between last year and this have been substantial enough to hurt Brady's downfield passing this year. However, even with a better offensive line and Gordon, Brady was 30th in average accuracy percentage in the vertical game.
There was a brief renaissance with the deep game in 2017 but overall, Brady's accuracy has been on the decline since 2007. Let's not get simplistic here, Brady can still connect with the deep ball but it's no longer the weapon in his arsenal that it once was. Sure, Moss is a superior vertical receiver to Gordon but not by such a drastic margin that Gordon is massively responsible for Brady's inaccuracies in this range of the field.
Wilson, Mahomes, and Rodgers are also islands onto themselves as tight-window passers. Brady is not. Last year, Pro Football Focus broke down Brady's game and discovered that while he remains one of the four most accurate quarterbacks in the league throwing to open targets—two steps or more of separation as well as targets with "up to two steps of separation." In other words, if the receiver is wide open, or what I call "college open" Brady remains among the best.
Tight throws where a defender is within arm's reach of the target or a tight passing window? Brady was in the middle of the pack.
When you look at the scheme it's clear that the Patriots thrive off pre-snap assessments of coverage to create wide-open looks. This is a conceptually-demanding offense on receivers because they want to leverage Brady's strengths to read the defense while minimizing his worst traits as a tight-window thrower. A middle-of-the-back thrower in this area isn't bad, but it's not going to make this offense as unstoppable as putting the onus on the receivers to get wide-open.
This is the genius of the Patriots coaching staff. And it's also why Gordon wasn't as much of an asset as a vertical threat who thrives in tight windows.
Even when Gordon was dominating in Cleveland, he often made tight-window catches than the pulled away from the defense. If Gordon has lost any athletic ability during that unbelievable year in Cleveland, it wasn't a huge loss. Brady's skills aren't good enough in those specific areas to make the most of Gordon and it's better for the offense to have another excellent option-route receiver with YAC skills like Mohamed Sanu.
This may sound nutty, but if you reconsider the argument above, the logic is there. Watson isn't a bad quarterback because he lacks the velocity and accuracy on perimeter timing routes. The Texans scheme around it and pick players who maximize his talents.
Brady is aging and his game has changed. It doesn't make him bad, just weaker in some areas than he once was. They accepted it and moved on from Gordon. Why can't we?
Tyler Lockett is at his best in the slot and as good as D.K. Metcalf has been as a rookie, he's still a limited young player. Gordon is a more refined weapon with the potential to beat any cornerback matched against him. His play has not declined as much as Tom Brady's ability to hit tight-windows in the vertical game has. With Russell Wilson at the top of his game and Gordon proving that he acclimated to a far more complex offense on receivers within 3-4 weeks, expect Gordon to have a real shot a good stretch run.
5. Steve Buzzard's GPP Domination
FanDuel Million and WFFC winner Steve Buzzard explains his GPP strategies in this weekly feature. This week, he discusses the strategy behind the single game, "showdown" contests. If you don't know what this is, Buzzard explains the rules at the top of the piece.
He also recommends players to use or bench for this week's slates—the easiest choices as well as some contrarian options. Here's a hot player that Buzzard recommends you not to use:
HOW TO PLAY THE CHALK
One of the biggest decisions each week is how to handle the chalk on the slate. The chalkiest players are typically the ‘best’ plays on the slate if you are trying to maximize your total points produced. However, if you are looking to win a big tournament you can gain a lot of ground on your competition if you choose a player that outperforms there. If that player is in a lot of lineups you can pass a lot at one time. Balancing scoring the most points and playing against your competition is the toughest part of DFS. In this section, we talk about how to handle the toughest decision of the week. What to do with the chalk:
One of my favorite plays all year has been D.J. Moore. He has been cheap, under-owned, and for his price done quite well. He has surpassed 100 yards in two straight weeks and has had 8+ targets in every game but two. What Moore has failed to do is to have a huge slate breaking week as he only has one touchdown on the year. This is largely due to Christian McCaffrey’s awe-inspiring season as well as being attached to Kyle Allen at quarterback.
This week Moore has risen to one of his higher prices of the season, is still straddled with McCaffrey and Allen and is going to be one of the highest owned players on the slate. Is this just recency bias from two straight 100-yard games? Yes, that is partially correct but the biggest driver is a friendly matchup against the Falcons whom we have talked about a lot throughout the year. In case you have forgotten the Falcons rank 4th in passing yards allowed per attempt as well as points allowed per game. How’d that work out for the Saints last week though? I think Moore is one of the better values on the slate but his price tag and ownership are a bit high for me. For the first time in months, I would go underweight.
Here's a contrarian play that he recommends for your lineups:
If you play too many chalky players you will be competing against too many people to win first place and the odds will be stacked against you. If you play too many contrarian players you won’t score enough points. Remember, the plays are contrarian because most likely there is something wrong with that player. In general, the public is very smart. Finding that right mix is the second hardest thing to do in DFS. In this section, I will try to point you to some of the most contrarian options on the slate with ownership projection below 5%.
Tom Brady hasn’t been very good this year. He has only surpassed 300 yards 4 times despite facing one of the easier schedules. But that has allowed him to be priced all the way down to the 9th most expensive quarterback, getting ownership under 5%, and playing the Eagles who has been a plus matchup all year. The Eagles have been playing well of late and should force the Patriots to keep their foot on the gas for the full game. This is a game that Brady should be able to put up a big score and push you up to the top of the leaderboard.
Matt'sThoughts: I get Steve's rationale for bypassing Moore this week based on the strategy he outlined. As for Moore's on-field performance projection, he's so skilled in the middle of the field where Atlanta is weakest that I expect a good performance. However, I agree with Steve that Moore is not likely to earn a massive day that you have to have Moore to stay in the contest.
Brady is an interesting contrarian pick because there's not much of a deep game in his offense after Gordon leaving. Still, Phillip Dorsett has come through enough—and the Eagles struggle with giving up easy vertical plays—that the combination of quick passing to stave off the Philadelphia front and the heightened potential for a big play or two makes Brady worth ownership when considering the ownership data Steve shared.
Good luck this week!