All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.
Know Your Enemies
To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:
The crowd will want to pay up to Deshaun Watson ($6,900), Dak Prescott ($7,400), Patrick Mahomes II ($7,700), and Lamar Jackson ($7,900), but it’s difficult to build viable lineups around them unless more obvious running back and wide receiver value opens up by the weekend. While each of the aforementioned studs will be popular, the common roster construction is more likely to include lower-priced quarterbacks such as Matt Ryan ($6,100) and Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900), who face each other in a potential shootout (55-point over/under), or Daniel Jones ($5,400), who gets a Cowboys defense that has allowed at least 38 points in each of their last three games.
Pivot Points: With so many entrants either splurging at quarterback or paying down to Ryan or Jones, the entire tier of signal-callers from $6,000 to $6,600 should go lightly rostered, though it will probably be more beneficial to seek out uniqueness elsewhere in your lineups.
If Darrell Henderson got up to 23% rostered in last week’s Milly Maker thanks primarily to his matchup against the Giants defense, it’s a safe bet Ezekiel Elliott ($7,800) will be the crowd’s favorite luxury purchase at running back. Those who pay up to an elite quarterback will have a hard time rostering a high-end RB2 next to Elliott, which should concentrate roster percentages on the middle pricing tier, where David Johnson ($5,200), Jerick McKinnon ($5,800), and Mike Davis ($6,400) stand out with plus matchups. Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,800) profiles as the crowd’s preferred RB1 in Prescott/Mahomes/Jackson lineups.
Pivot Points: Elliott and Edwards-Helaire merit high-priority in your player pool, but a balanced approach to running back should get you building lineups in a different direction than the field. Some non-chalky players who fit balanced rosters this week include Antonio Gibson ($5,000), Todd Gurley ($5,700), Jonathan Taylor ($6,200), and Josh Jacobs ($6,300).
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