#Trendspotting: Week 2

Photo: USA Today Sports

READER'S GUIDE

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2021 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Offensive Overhauls
• Newcomer Analysis

With just one week of data at our disposal for this season, please exercise caution. At this point in the season, the trends identified below are mostly trends to keep an eye on and monitor for a short while before acting on them a few weeks down the line when the signal begins to separate from the noise.

Best of luck and as always feel free to reach out to me here on Twitter with any comments regarding this article or questions regarding anything related to fantasy football!

Tweets of the Week

TEs with the highest routes runs as a percentage of team dropbacks

Tyler Higbee - 96%
Logan Thomas - 92%
Travis Kelce - 85%
T.J. Hockenson - 84%
Kyle Pitts - 80%

— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) September 13, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• The tight end position has had two or three top producers in a tier far above the rest of the league in recent seasons, while the rest of the league typically lagged far behind in a wasteland featuring very little separation. However, the 2021 season may have the potential for a new tier of quality fantasy producers to emerge close behind the league's headliners at the position like Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller.
• Without Gerald Everett in the picture in Los Angeles, Tyler Higbee featured heavily in the Rams' passing attack. As Kevin Cole notes above, Higbee ran a route on a stunning 96-percent of the team's total dropbacks on Sunday night. Higbee seamlessly converted this increased playing time into production, as he compiled 5 catches for 68 yards on 6 targets against the Chicago Bears. Keep an eye on Higbee in the coming weeks as a potential trade target or undervalued DFS asset.
• Unsurprisingly, Logan Thomas played a large role in the Washington passing game during Week 1. Without Curtis Samuel in the fold for the next few weeks, Logan Thomas should stay involved in the Football Team's offense. Although Thomas's raw numbers don't jump off the page, with 3 receptions for 30 yards and 1 touchdown on 3 targets, they are encouraging when contextualized. The Washington Football Team only threw 21 passes on Sunday afternoon, and in higher-volume environments after more practice to build chemistry with Taylor Heinicke, Thomas should thrive.
• T.J. Hockenson and Kyle Pitts round out this newly-forming tier of secondary fantasy producers. Hockenson has league-winning potential this season, as Detroit's group of pass-catchers is lackluster aside from him and D'Andre Swift. in the 2021 season opener, Hockenson registered 8 receptions for 97 yards and a score on 10 targets. Down in Atlanta, despite an underwhelming NFL debut, Kyle Pitts's role in the Falcons offense should lead to impressive production down the line. Philadelphia's defense did a great job putting pressure on Matt Ryan and forcing him into bad throws last weekend. However, Kyle Pitts has the talent and role that could break rookie receiving records at the tight end position in better passing conditions, and expectations are rightfully high for the former Florida Gator.

D'Andre Swift ran a route on 65% of Jared Goff's dropbacks vs. the 49ers, which is a massive upgrade in his rookie role (48%).

What this means is Swift is on the Kamara / Ekeler spectrum of passing-down usage. Kamara runs a route on ~80% of pass plays while Ekeler is at ~60%.

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) September 13, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• DAndre Swift is one of just four players since 2017 to command a target on at least 23-percent of his routes at age 21 or younger. The other three on this list are Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley-- impressive company, to say the least.
  • Thank you to Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23 on Twitter) for pointing out this stat over the offseason.
• Swift's Week 1 usage is more of the same on this front, as he commanded 11 targets, which he converted into 8 receptions for 65 yards and a score against the San Francisco 49ers. As Graham Barfield noted, DAndre Swift's Week 1 mark of 65-percent routes-run ranks amongst the league's best pass-catching backs. There is no reason to expect the second-year back's role in this offense to change now, as this is an obvious strength of his game. Look for Swift to continue to perform as a top-end fantasy option in PPR scoring formats.

Longest ongoing consecutive games played with 20+ PPR points...

Travis Kelce, Christian McCaffrey - 8

Sterling Shepard - 3

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) September 13, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Early in the season, look for Sterling Shepard to thrive as the number-one wide receiver for the New York Giants. This week, Rich Hribar pointed out that in Week 1, Sterling Shepard posted his third straight 20+ point game in PPR scoring formats, the third-longest streak in the NFL.
• Currently, without Evan Engram suiting up due to injury, Kenny Golladay playing in his first games for the Giants, and Saquon Barkley returning to action after a torn ACL took him out of action early last year, Sterling Shepard is the undeniable alpha in the team's passing game. Last weekend, Shepard played 95-percent of the team's offensive snaps, a mark that he only matched once all year in 2020. Across the three game-streak scoring at least 20 PPR points, Shepard's playing time has been consistently high, as they are the only three games he played at least 84-percent of snaps since the start of last season.
• As the season wears on and Evan Engram gets onto the field, Kenny Golladay meshes with Daniel Jones, and Saquon Barkley reaches 100-percent health, Shepard's fantasy value will decrease moderately. Still, consider the slot receiver from the University of Oklahoma an elite early-season receiving option in the meantime.

Offensive Overhauls

Bengals found ways to protect Joe Burrow that don't require offensive line investment pic.twitter.com/YWQgwV4Z3X

— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) September 13, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Here, Kevin Cole contextualizes Cincinnati's play-action rate, analyzing only snaps with Joe Burrow under-center while excluding all "obvious passing downs." This spike in play-action rate will provide a massive boost to Burrow's passing efficiency in his 2nd year, especially given the strengthened receiving corps he has at his disposal this year. The former LSU Tiger popped as a potential breakout candidate this offseason, according to my Quarterback Projection Model. However, the primary concern was whether or not his offensive line would allow him to thrive. Thankfully, after the Bengals opted to select another pass-catcher instead of an offensive lineman with the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, they appear intent on keeping Burrow upright in the pocket through other means: schematic deception. While we must still exercise caution drawing conclusions after just 60-minutes of football this season, there is massive potential for improvement for this Cincinnati passing game if they keep this up and utilize play-action more often this year.

Biggest Play-Action Rate Increases

1. 1. Pittsburgh Steelers | 2020-21 change: +20.35%
   2. Washington Football Team | 2020-21 change: +18.29%
   3. New Orleans Saints | 2020-21 change: +15.71%
   4. Denver Broncos | 2020-21 change: +15.61%
   5. Miami Dolphins | 2020-21 change: +14.50%

Commentary and Action Items:

• Elsewhere, Pittsburgh's play-action rate in Week 1 increased the most in the league compared to the mark they posted last season. Last season, Pittsburgh utilized play-action on a league-low 7.77-percent of passing plays, while the next-lowest tally was approximately twice as high at 15.42-percent for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Pittsburgh's offense is equipped with all of the requisite weapons on the outside to succeed, with Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Chase Claypool all showing massive potential as they enter their respective primes. The reason for this schematic change is up for debate. There is no catch-all explanation like a coaching change or anything similar in this case. Perhaps the most likely explanation is the introduction of their new bell-cow running back, Najee Harris, which has led them to believe that play-action is more effective now than last year. Overall, this is a situation to keep an eye on because an increased play-action rate could help boost the efficiency of the Steelers passing attack, which features arguably the best receiving corps in the NFL.
• The Miami Dolphins are the other most notable team to appear in the league's top-five in year-over-year play-action rate increase. In Week 1, the Dolphins utilized play-action on 37.04-percent of their pass plays overall, the fourth-highest clip in the NFL. In the team's season opener, Miami's offensive totals were mediocre, thanks to an impressive showing from the New England defense. However, do not let Tua Tagovailoa's modest 16-27, 202 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception stat line have too harsh of an impact on projections moving forward, as the underlying traits of this offense are extremely encouraging. The Dolphins likely have one of the sharpest coaching staffs in the NFL, and it makes perfect sense that they are gaining an edge in one of the simplest ways possible: a high play-action rate. Expect Tagovailoa's passing efficiency to pick up next week when Miami's receiving corps fields an improved unit with Will Fuller returning to action after serving a one-game suspension to start the season.

Biggest Play-Action Rate Decreases

1. 1. Tennessee Titans | 2020-21 change: -30.32%
   2. New England Patriots | 2020-21 change: -21.72%
   3. Chicago Bears | 2020-21 change: -19.21%
   4. Buffalo Bills | 2020-21 change: -14.68%
   5. Las Vegas Raiders | 2020-21 change: -12.97%

Commentary and Action Items:

• At the opposite end of the spectrum, the most notable decrease in play-action usage from last year to this year took place in Tennessee. The Titans have fielded one of the league's most efficient offenses in recent seasons under the guidance of Arthur Smith. However, Smith left town to become the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons this offseason, leaving Todd Downing in charge of calling the plays in Nashville. Do not overreact to just one week of data, as this decrease in play-action usage may be a product of game script, since the Titans played from behind for about 90-percent of the game in Week 1. Still, this remains a situation to keep a close eye on, as the fantasy value of Ryan Tannehill, Julio Jones, and A.J. Brown may depend upon Todd Downing returning to what buttered Tennessee's bread in recent seasons: the play-action pass.

Newcomer Analysis

There is a massive amount of hype surrounding this 2021 class of rookies. Here, we will identify and analyze the most notable fantasy producers, or non-producers, of the bunch every week.

Najee Harris

• Despite mediocre fantasy production in his NFL debut, the underlying metrics of Najee Harris's first game in the black and gold are extremely encouraging.
• Harris was the only running back in the NFL to play 100-percent of his team's snaps in Week 1. Overall, the former Alabama running back had 19 scoring opportunities (defined as carries + targets), but his poor rushing efficiency limited his production, as he only gained 2.81 yards-per-carry. Down the line, Harris's yards-per-carry total is sure to increase-- inferior talents in Pittsburgh's backfield averaged approximately 3.6 yards-per-carry last year, a mark that Harris is a heavy favorite to surpass this year. As long as he continues to play the bulk of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps, Harris has the potential to finish the season as a top-12 fantasy running back.

Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon

• San Francisco's starting running back, Raheem Mostert, went down for the season on Sunday against the Detroit Lions. Originally, Trey Sermon was expected to be the number-two option in the 49ers backfield. However, after he was inactive as a healthy scratch in the team's season opener, Trey Sermon may have worked his way down the depth chart. In the absence of Mostert and Sermon, Elijah Mitchell, a 6th-round running back from Louisiana, assumed the starting job last weekend. Mitchell impressed in his first taste of NFL action, as he recorded 19 carries for 104 rushing yards and a score. The pecking order in this backfield is uncertain moving forward, so be sure to keep an eye on news coming out of San Francisco ahead of the team's Week 2 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. The starting running back in a Kyle Shannahan offense is always a strong fantasy asset, and this may be a situation to target in DFS this weekend.

JaMarr Chase

• Unsurprisingly, the best wide receiver in recent college football history did not suddenly forget how to play football during his year off when he opted out and began preparing for the NFL Draft. A handful of preseason drops sent many fans and analysts into a frenzy as everyone attempted to crack the code and figure out why JaMarr Chase wasn't good at football anymore--spoiler alert: he is still very very good. Reporters were not immune to overreaction on this front, either, as some began asking leading and speculative questions throughout the preseason. These questions and press conferences led to juicy off-the-cuff soundbites from Chase about how the size of the NFL football and the lack of white stripes were the cause for his drop issues during meaningless football games. However, many took his comments and ran with them, and his stock plummeted in the final weeks before the season-- his Average Draft Position in best-ball drafts dropped approximately two rounds. Chase quieted the doubters in his NFL debut when he posted 5 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown on 7 targets against the Minnesota Vikings. The outlook for Chase is as bright as ever right now, especially given the aforementioned uptick in play-action usage in Cincinnati's offense. Expect Chase to maintain a similar level of play and production throughout this season, which could feasibly get his name into discussions about who the NFL's best young wide receiver is.

Javonte Williams

• Javonte Williams, the Denver Broncos' 2nd-round selection in the 2021 NFL Draft, played exactly 50-percent of the team's total offensive snaps in the season opener against the New York Giants. While his rushing efficiency left much to be desired (3.21 yards-per-carry,) Williams' involvement in Denver's attack is an encouraging sign for his long-term fantasy viability this year. Currently, Williams is splitting time and carries in the Broncos' backfield with Melvin Gordon. Last season, with less talent competing for his carries, Gordon played 60-percent of the team's offensive snaps or less in 9 out of 16 games. The Broncos are obviously comfortable with a two-back system in place while both Gordon and Williams are healthy. However, if Gordon misses any time due to injury throughout the season-- which he has done every year since 2017-- Javonte Williams instantly becomes an RB1 candidate. Consider Williams's involvement in Denver's early-season offense an extremely encouraging sign for his fantasy outlook this year. His expected snap share and carry share should increase as time wears on, and Williams gains critical experience alongside Teddy Bridgewater to refine his game and learn the finer details of being a three-down running back in the NFL.