Cracking DraftKings Week 16

Photo: Isaiah J. Downing, USA Today Sports

Favorite Games

• Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 48.5
• Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys - Over/Under 47.5
• New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings - Over/Under 47.5

Favorite Additional Spots

• Bills on the road against the Bears - Implied Team Total 24.5
• 49ers at home vs. the Commanders - Implied Team Total 22.25
• Lions on the road against the Panthers - Implied Team Total 23
• Bengals on the road against the Patriots - Implied Team Total 22.25
• Titans at home vs. the Texans - Implied Team Total 19.5

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow is in the MVP conversation and has defeated Patrick Mahomes II, who is the clear favorite to win the award, three times in a row. Burrow ranks sixth in passing yards per game (277.5) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.2) and leads a Bengals offense that ranks fifth in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), sixth in Success Rate, second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and third in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). Burrow is listed as a cash option instead of a tournament option this week because his upside is likely capped against a tough Patriots defense that ranks fourth in EPA/Play Allowed, fourth in Dropback EPA Allowed, and fourth in Success Rate.

Dak Prescott is surprisingly priced affordably at just $6,100. It's understandable since he has a difficult matchup against an Eagles defense that ranks first in EPA/Play Allowed, first in Dropback EPA Allowed, and sixth in Success Rate. Still, Prescott gets to play at home and the Over/Under (47.5) is tied for the third highest of the entire week. Prescott has been an efficient quarterback as he ranks fifth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9) and leads a Cowboys offense that ranks seventh in EPA/Play and fourth in Success Rate.

Gardner Minshew has proven he's capable of playing quarterback in the NFL. He'll get yet another chance on Sunday with Jalen Hurts out due to a shoulder injury. Minshew threw two touchdowns in each of his two starts last season for the Eagles and is priced at just $4,800. Minshew provides salary savings in cash that can be used to roster studs at running back and wide receiver. The matchup isn't easy on the road against a Cowboys defense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play Allowed, seventh in Dropback EPA Allowed, and fourth in Success Rate. Yet, their passing defense hasn't been the same since cornerback Anthony Brown was lost for the season a few weeks ago. That provides a vulnerable area in the secondary that Minshew can attack with his plethora of weapons.

Jared Goff doesn't have an ideal matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks 11th in EPA/Play Allowed, 11th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 14th in Success Rate. But he's priced at just $5,400 and he's been better than most realize. Goff ranks 11th in passing yards per game (257.4) and tenth in pass touchdowns per game (1.6) and leads a surging Lions offense and team that shockingly looks primed to grab a playoff spot despite a 1-6 start to the season.

Running Backs

The Vikings are 3.5-point home favorites and Dalvin Cook has a favorable matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed, 26th in Rush EPA Allowed, and 17th in Success Rate. Cook ranks ninth in the NFL in opportunities per game (19.9).

Joe Mixon ranks sixth in opportunities per game (20.3) and the Bengals are three-point favorites against the Patriots. New England has a good defense and they're better against the pass (4th in Dropback EPA Allowed) than the run (12th in Rush EPA Allowed). Look for a balanced attack from Cincinnati this week.