Monday Dynasty Roundup, Week 8

Photo: Matt Kryger, USA Today Sports

Next man up. The Not For Long League. Whatever catchy hook you want to use, injuries defined Week 7. Previous injuries entering the week with uncertainty or injuries coming out of the week cost fantasy stars and alter the seasons' course for playoff-hopeful teams.

The biggest fantasy story of the day is the likely ACL that should sideline the Jets' breakout rookie RB Breece Hall. Hall was off to a fast start, with a 62-yard touchdown early in the game before suffering the injury. The Jets and fantasy players had built teams around Hall, and his ADP made him one of the biggest hits of the 2022 season. That is gone, and the fall-off is precipitous, as the team likely reverts to a subpar 2021 variation of the offensive unit that finished bottom five in points per game. Michael Carter will have to step up, and if the team composition must change, the team could make quick amends with WR Elijah Moore, restructuring their offense around him and rookie WR Garrett Wilson. They were able to extend their winning streak to four games after Brett Rypien somehow threw 46 passes and scored only 9 points, but things will heat up quickly with three divisional games coming up with the Patriots twice and the Bills. The Jets' hot start could be at a turning point, along with fantasy teams that had enjoyed top 7 running back production at an RB20 ADP.

The Seahawks have their rookie running back and their offense-shifting injury. The team continued their surprising start to 2022, sitting alone in first place in the NFC West after beating the Chargers. But star WR DK Metcalf was carted off, and the fear is a knee injury will cost him his 2022, but the team saw the actual emergence of RB Ken Walker, with 168 yards. Geno Smith dropped back to 210 yards and two touchdowns, and his high tide following three stellar games in Week 5 may be pulling back if Metcalf is out for an extended time. We could see a return of a conservative Seattle offense that relies on Walker to load up deep shots, with Week 7's hero Marquise Goodwin's speed playing well in that structure. Goodwin was not seeing consistent enough volume to be a fantasy play but ran as the clear WR3; he would be a boom/bust option but has the skills to have boom weeks.

The Chargers have their concerns, losing Mike Williams to an injury late in the game. The team does have some much-needed time off, a bye in Week 8 followed by a game against the Falcons, who struggled badly to contain the Bengals and Joe Burrow. But the Chargers need WR Keenan Allen to finally clear medically and WR Josh Palmer's return from a concussion; otherwise, QB Justin Herbert is stuck with some of the most pedestrian weapons in the league.

Conversely, the Lions have been as affected by injury as any team. First RB DAndre Swift could not make his return in Week 7 after sitting since Week 3. Second, the team lost WR Amon-Ra St. Brown early to a head injury. The Cowboys have a solid defense and a Lions team that was an early season talking point struggled badly, pulling away in the race for the number one overall pick with the Raiders and Panthers grabbing their second wins. The Texans are partners in misery with the Lions at one win, but an opening week tie serves as the de facto tiebreaker.

What is that important?

This draft class features two top quarterbacks, Ohio St.'s CJ Stroud and Alabama's Bryce Young. These players have separated at the top of this class, and while eight teams sit at just two wins, three (the Browns, Broncos, and Saints) have traded their first-rounder. Quarterbacks define drafts, and both Stroud and Young are positioned to capture the draft conversation as centerpieces of the Heisman Trophy and National Championship races. Teams would never openly tank, but these teams have to start to recognize the foundational shift potentially offered. Dynasty players need to monitor this as well, as both Jared Goff and Davis Mills could lose significant value heading into the offseason.

The NFL trade deadline is approaching, and there has been buzz that teams will be more active. Separation is starting to occur; the NFC features just five teams with winning records with seven playoff spots to fill; meanwhile, the AFC could end the week with nine pending the result of Patriots - Bears on Monday Night. However, ten NFC teams have two or three wins, with two playoff spots earmarked for that group. The number of teams who talk themselves into potential playoff contention could cut down the willing sellers.

Remember, we are hunting volume. As team situations change, be quick to grab pieces despite preconceived notions about teams. Sometimes a team can trade one of their top players and backfill with shocking production, like Carolina getting 181 yards rushing from DOnta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. The same can work for dynasty teams as well.

Time to dive through some interesting numbers that frame the week and prepare to turn the page to Week 8, where the Chiefs and Chargers will be on a bye.

Blind Resume

Revenge! A Dish Best Served On The Field

Week 7

• TE Hayden Hurst, Cincinnati vs Atlanta, Win 35-17, 6 catches - 48 yards
• TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville vs NY Giants, Lost 23-17, 4 catches - 67 yards
• TE Gerald Everett, LA Chargers vs Seattle, Lost 37-23, 5 catches - 63 yards
• RB Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City vs San Francisco, Win 44-23, 4 touches - 48 yards

Week 8

• WR DeSean Jackson, Baltimore vs Tampa Bay
• QB Geno Smith, Seattle vs NY Giants

Deep Dynasty Watch List

TE Harrison Bryant, Cleveland - David Njoku continued his strong season with seven catches for 71 yards, but he left the game late with an injury. This offense features the tight end, and Bryant had a stretch of three consecutive games to end 2021 with touchdowns. He has 200 more snaps on the season than the third-highest tight end, Pharaoh Brown, and would stand to rarely leave the field if Njoku missed time. The Browns play the Bengals in Week 8, who rank in the top half of points allowed to the tight end.

WR Marquise Goodwin, Seattle - While Goodwin can not be expected to duplicate his two-touchdown performance, he should see a much larger opportunity if DK Metcalf misses time after being carted off. Goodwin has run as the Seahawk’s WR3 all season, and the team has heavily focused on two receivers, shifting him into a prime opportunity. Goodwin is a name long-time fantasy players should remember; in 2017, he finished WR31 when he totaled 962 yards.

RB Ty Johnson, New York Jets - Postgame Robert Saleh delivered the disappointing news that Breece Hall looks to have suffered an ACL tear. Michael Carter is shifting here and should be added in every format. But often, deep dynasty leagues are about grabbing the next up to be the next up, and Johnson is the only other Jets’ back to have seen snaps.

RB Gus Edwards, Baltimore - Wide netting, but there is a chance Edwards is available in your league. He will lead this Baltimore backfield for the foreseeable future. It is a real shame the two touchdowns announced his presence loudly, as an excellent buying window snapped shut the moment clarity was received

Stats Of The Week

QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati - 481 passing yards - Burrow posted the 26th game hitting 481 passing yards since 1995. His second career game hit that number (Week 16 vs. Baltimore in 2021), and he is the only player to hit that number in 2021 and 2022 combined.

QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati - 217 passing attempts - Joe Burrow threw four interceptions in Week 1, and much was made over his turnovers. In the six weeks after, he has thrown 217 passes and only one interception.

RB Ken Walker, Seattle - 168 rush yards / 0 receiving yards - Walker delivered a “Derrick Henry Special,” topping 168 rushing yards without recording a receiving yard. Since 2016 there have been eight of these games, four of which Henry posted. The NFL saw two of these games in 2021, from Jonathan Taylor and Rashaad Penny.

RB Josh Jacobs, Las Angeles - 143 yards / 3 rushing touchdowns - Another “Henry” there have been ten games where players hit these two numbers since 2017. Henry has half of those games. Jacobs has now topped 143 in three straight weeks. The only other Raider to top that number since 2011 was Rashad Jennings in 2013.

QB Andy Dalton, New Orleans, 361 yards / 4 passing touchdowns - Dalton posted the 20th game by a Saints quarterback hitting both of these numbers since 1995. It was the third time in Dalton’s career he hit those numbers. The other 19 games belonged to Drew Brees.

The Target Report

• Campbell posted 23 targets over the past two games, becoming a must-roster in all formats. In dynasty, he may still be a buy low given the infatuation with Alec Pierce within the hive mind.
• The Buccaneers again struggled to obtain any rhythm. Evans saw 15 targets for the first time since 2019. He missed a huge day when he dropped a long wide-open touchdown.
• Jones saw ten targets for the second time in his career. Allen Lazard left this game with an injury, potentially forcing the team to use their best weapon in the receiving game finally.
• Moore saw ten targets for the second time in 2022. In 2021, he hit that number ten times. With Christian McCaffrey gone, the team will likely be forced to use him as their primary playmaker. He is a great buy option, as concern about him has been vocal.
• Pressure is mounting on the 49ers to right the ship. For the second straight week, Aiyuk and Kittle were the focal points of the passing game, seeing a combined 44% target share. The addition of Christian McCaffrey dominated the news, but the game script forced them to play from behind.
• The Chiefs' offense was in top form. For the second straight week, Smith-Schuster topped 113 yards. All the Chiefs receiving options played their part in this matchup, with three touchdowns from Mecole Hardman and 111 yards for Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
• The Texans played this entire game from behind, yet Cooks was quiet again, failing to top 50 yards in three of his past four games. It is time to panic on Cooks for redraft purposes as the offense relied heavily on short passes, with Davis Mills as the second-lowest pocket time in the league. Dameon Pierce is the only reliable piece of this offense in shallower leagues.
• Dulcich was heavily involved, spiking onto the radar in his second NFL game. Dulcich was the first rookie tight end to see nine targets in a game in 2022.
• The Bengals' primary targets (JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, Hayden Hurst, and Boyd) were heavily involved in the passing game, seeing between 7 - 11 targets each. The Bengals' offense is crystalizing, with all four playable in most formats.

Prospect Of The Week

QB Jayden Daniels, LSU

Daniels was a name to watch coming into 2021 with Arizona St. That season went sideways, with ten interceptions matching his ten touchdowns on an 8-5 team. With the turmoil surrounding the program, Daniels decided to transfer, joining a crowded LSU quarterback room that featured long-tenured Myles Brennan, 2021’s QB14 in Garrett Nussmeier, and 2022’s QB5 Walker Howard. Daniels topped them all in the preseason and gave a career-best performance to gain 369 all-purpose yards and account for five touchdowns to knock off previously unbeaten Ole Miss. On the season, Daniels features a 70% completion and a 12-1 TD / INT ratio with nine rushing touchdowns. He is a plus athlete who has shown growth in the passing game but lingers as an NFL longshot. Still, if he continues his current performance, he has a package that would interest fantasy players if he made an NFL roster.

Blind Resume Answer

A changing of the guard has occurred, with Robinson and Edwards now leading up backfields and granting some clarity. Robinson outrushed Antonio Gibson 2 to 1, and the Commanders pulled off their second win in a row. Anyone watching can see that Gibson is the more explosive player, but Robinson has Ron Rivera's trust, which is an emotional story for this team. Meanwhile, Edwards returned some familiarity to the Ravens' offense loudly. His lack of passing game involvement is unlikely to change, and this is a ceiling game without that, but in a potent offense, he will get opportunities to score.

Deep Player To Watch On Monday Night Football

WR Tyquan Thornton, New England - Thornton is no longer an under-the-radar performer with his two touchdowns in Week 6, but his encore must be monitored. Thornton is the most explosive player on the team and adds a needed element to the offense; if he is allowed to see frequent involvement, he enters lineup conversations. Jakobi Meyers looked like the team's clear receiving leader until that Week 6 performance.

Thank you for reading! Please follow and ask any questions on Twitter @4WhomJBellTolls.