We got to share yet another of maybe the most joyous holiday on the football calendar, the first round of the draft. Just like the Super Bowl, where and with who you celebrate is important. It’s probably a much more football-obsessed subset of your typical Super Bowl party, with just as many drunk fans cursing their team at the end of the night. We laughed, we cried, and if you are a Texans fan, you might have laughed and cried before the draft was out of the driveway.
First, let’s get to the bottom line, what actually mattered for fantasy football?
Fantasy Football Winners
Anthony Richardson (QB-IND) - The Colts love Richardson and didn’t hesitate to spend the #4 overall pick on him. New head coach Shane Steichen did wonders with Jalen Hurts, and Richardson gives him a lot more to work with in terms of arm strength, speed, and running ability. Arguably, Richardson has shown more advanced ability to adapt within a game and a season at Florida than Hurts did in college. This will be good; we just don’t know how good. Richardson is going to learn on the job and there will be growing pains, but the peaks for fantasy are going to be majestic.
Dalton Kincaid (TE-BUF) - The Utah product went only one pick after the wide receiver run, and the Bills were willing to trade up for him. His primary value is as a pass-catcher, and he’ll get paired up with a good quarterback in a good offense. Most expected multiple tight ends to hear their name called tonight. That Kincaid was the only one shows how much the Bills like him. On our show, Matt Waldman said his dynasty value might be higher than Kyle Pitts. Kincaid doesn’t have the redraft appeal that Richardson does, but his dynasty ceiling got a boost.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB-DET) - The Lions were thrilled to land Gibbs. Ignore any shock from the football media that the Lions would take the Crimson Tide running back so high. Gibbs' pass-catching and big play ability were already amplified by fantasy football scoring. Add in a multiplier of a team smitten with his skillset that already has a highly efficient, productive offense, and Gibbs' night was pretty much a best-case scenario for his short- and long-term ranges of values.
Lamar Jackson (QB-BAL) - He got paid, and then he added a very useful weapon in wide receiver Zay Flowers from Boston College. Between the contract, the hiring of pass-happy Todd Monken to run the offense, the signing of Odell Beckham Jr, and now the drafting of Flowers, it sure looks like the Ravens are going to showcase Jackson’s passing ability. A fantasy football renaissance is coming for Jackson as long as he can stay healthy.
Adam Thielen (WR-CAR) - The Panthers made the safe choice in Bryce Young at #1. Pairing the Alabama quarterback with Thielen should create a lot of layup receptions for the veteran receiver if he isn’t washed up, and Carolina certainly doesn’t think he is. D.J. Chark remains intriguing, but he’ll be returning from ankle surgery, so monitor reports about Young and Thielen’s chemistry out of OTAs and camp. A hundred catches isn’t an outlandish number for Thielen this year. Hayden Hurst gains a notch or two as a sleeper tight end, too.
Rashaad Penny (RB-PHI) - The Falcons ensured that the Eagles didn’t get Texas running back Bijan Robinson, although Philadelphia might have preferred to move up to #9 to take Jalen Carter anyway. Robinson made only two pre-draft official visits - to Philadelphia and Tampa Bay - and there was a lot of speculation linking the Eagles to him, even if it didn’t happen at the 10th pick. Penny’s lack of durability is well-known, but he’ll likely lead a very productive backfield in touches as long as he is on the field unless Philadelphia takes a back in the second or third round. With no fourth-round pick and the team already missing their fifth because of the Chauncey Gardner-Johnson trade, they might not feel inclined to use one of their few remaining picks on a position that they seem to be willing to invest so little cap space in. Don’t forget Matt Waldman-favorite Trey Sermon is still in Philadelphia, too.
Kenny Pickett (QB-PIT) - The Steelers were decisive, moving up from 17 to 14 to get Georgia tackle Broderick Jones, who hopefully can be a solid starting tackle from day one. The interior offensive line is firmed up with the signing of Isaac Seumalo to go with 2022’s successful signings of Mason Cole and James Daniels, and now the team has wisely focused on tackle. Pickett is surrounded by solid to great offensive skill talent, perhaps the line can give him a chance to make more use of it this season.
Justin Herbert (QB-LAC), Geno Smith (QB-SEA) - The Chargers and Seahawks didn’t have glaring needs at wide receiver, so you couldn’t have been confident that either team would take one, but both did. TCU product Quentin Johnston gives Herbert a big, fast target that can make things happen after the catch with room to grow as a player, while Ohio State receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba gives Smith the player most had as the top wide receiver on the board. The Seahawks offense is run by Shane Waldron, who knows a thing or two about using three wide receiver sets from his time as passing game coordinator with the Rams.
Fantasy Football Losers
Jordan Love (QB-GB) - In hindsight, it might have seemed cruel to Aaron Rodgers for the Packers to take a pass-catcher with their first pick after neglecting the position in the draft for stretches of his tenure, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Packers took an edge rusher who wasn’t even a starter at Iowa in Lukas Van Ness (Van Ness could pay off on the pick, many had him going that high). The Packers do have two picks in the first half of the second round (#42 and #45) - and they did pay up to get Christian Watson at the top of the second last year - so we could revise this if they come away with someone like Cedric Tillman or Josh Downs on Day 2.
Tyler Allgeier (RB-ATL) - It was a nice starting run for Allgeier, whose performance late last year should tell you more about the quality of the Falcons' offensive line than Allgeier himself. Bijan Robinson will be the instant three-down back in Atlanta, with Allgeier relegated to backup. In addition to Allgeier, Rashaad Penny, Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman, Brian Robinson, and Rachaad White, all could have seen their values cut down by their team taking the first back off of the board. We’ll see if any of them are joined by a second or third-day rookie from this deep running back class.
D’Andre Swift, David Montgomery (RB-DET) - It’s hard to see the Lions using the #12 pick on Gibbs and giving him only a small share of the backfield. Swift seems to be as good as gone, but the team shouldn’t release him with a cheap $1.77 million price tag on the fourth year of his rookie deal - and who knows if anyone will want to trade a pick for Swift instead of just taking their favorite prospect from this class? Montgomery’s short- and long-term value was already hurt by the Lions taking a back that will do more than D’Andre Swift did to cut into Jamaal Williams’ value. If Swift is still on the roster this season, Montgomery’s value will take another short-term hit.
T.J. Hockenson (TE-MIN) - Hockenson’s volume-based production spike last year may have been short-lived, as the Vikings took an advanced route runner who should be the Robin to Justin Jefferson’s Batman in USC’s Jordan Addison. Addison will be an attractive target on short and intermediate routes, and he will get more consistent separation and contribute more after the catch than Hockenson.
Biggest Stories
Ignore Everything Between the Combine and Draft - If you would have said Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud go 1-2, Anthony Richardson the Colts at #4, and Kentucky’s Will Levis falls out of the first round back in February, you would have had company, and more importantly, you would have been right. Since then, even the waters who would go #1 got muddied, and there was even a late bolt out of the blue that Levis could go to Houston at #2. For the second straight year, a quarterback in most first-round mocks fell out of the first - last year, it was eventual Titan third-round pick Malik Willis. Hendon Hooker (Tennessee) also appeared in some mock first rounds this year but didn’t hear his name called. We will find out how much (or little) quarterback-needy teams such as Minnesota, Tennessee, and Tampa Bay like Levis and Hooker on the second day.
Howie Roseman Won the First-Round Grade Olympics - Last year, the Eagles moved up slightly to take a freakish Georgia defensive lineman (Jordan Davis) and had a Georgia linebacker (Nakobe Dean) fall into their laps a bit later than most draft experts projected him to go. In this year's first round, the Eagles moved up slightly to take a freakish Georgia defensive lineman (Jalen Carter) and had a Georgia linebacker (Nolan Smith) fall into their laps a bit later than most draft experts projected him to go. The Georgia defense has been one of the most dominant forces in college football, so who can blame Roseman for wanting to reproduce it? Darnell Wright might be a good right tackle, but if Carter plays up to his college tape in the pros, the Bears might regret trading out of the opportunity to take him. The Jets took Will McDonald (Iowa State) over Smith. Honorable first-round grade Olympics mention to the Patriots, who traded down from 14 to 17 and still got many draft experts #1 corner in Christian Gonzalez (Oregon)
The Biggest Surprise Was How Few Surprises There Were - We knew the Texans could take a quarterback and trade back up to #3 for Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. after NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah projected just that scenario in his final mock. We didn’t know or even contemplate that they would give up the #33 pick, a 2024 first (theirs, not Cleveland’s!), and a third-round pick to move up to #12 to do it. That’s what you pay to move up to #1 for a franchise quarterback. Then the Cardinals gave up the #34 pick to move back up for Ohio State offensive tackle Paris Johnson, which wasn’t too shocking since some had him going to Arizona at #3 if they didn’t trade out of the pick. What no one could have projected was the Lions taking Jahmyr Gibbs at #12 after trading down with the Cardinals. We always have a few adrenaline rushes where the room starts spinning moments in the first round, and the Texans, Cardinals, and Lions came through for us on an otherwise quiet night for trades, which included only moves of three pick slots or fewer in the other four trades (and surprisingly after last year, zero player trades).
Offensive Linemen Pushed Up the Board, Tight Ends Pushed Down - In a statement about the view of the classes after the first tier, we saw the top four offensive tackles go between picks 6 and 14, with the Bears taking Tennessee’s Darnell Wright earlier than some expected, and the Steelers taking the last in the tier (good fantasy drafting strategy!) when they moved up from 17 to 14 for Georgia’s Broderick Jones. That early run plus a looming PED suspension for Jaguars starting tackle Cam Robinson helps push Oklahoma OT Anton Harrison into the first round, but only after Jacksonville GM Trent Baalke traded down twice. Dalton Kincaid was the only tight end taken in the first round, even though most expected at least two to go. Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer was one of the two unexpected first-round snubs (other than Levis) along with Penn State cornerback Joey Porter Jr Jr., but a strong class of tight ends might have convinced teams to pass on the position in the first round knowing they would like the prospects available in the second and third rounds. Georgia tight end Darnell Washington was also in a lot of first-round mock drafts. Look for Mayer, Washington, and Oregon State’s Luke Musgrave to go off the board quickly on Day 2.
Historic Wide Receiver Run - For the first time in draft history, wide receivers were selected with four consecutive picks in the first round. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quintin Johnson, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison will go in the record books, at least for that. Smith-Njigba was projected as high as 12 or 13, but the others were drafted in their expected range. Expect a pair of Tennessee receivers (Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman) to go off of the board early on a second day that could see as many as 10-12 wideouts get selected.
Butterfly Wings - Many mocks had the Detroit Lions taking Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon at #6. When Seattle took him at #5, the Lions traded down to #12 with Arizona. If Witherspoon is there, does Detroit stay put? Would Arizona have had to wait until later to trade up for Paris Johnson? Would Johnson being on the board have changed another team’s pick? The inclusion of the Packers and Jets swapping #13 and #15 didn’t raise many eyebrows when the trade was announced, but it opened the door for the Steelers to jump the Jets to #14 and take Broderick Jones, who most thought would be a consideration for the Jets with their injury-prone tackles. Do the Jets take Iowa State edge rusher Will McDonald if they were still at #13? Who would the Steelers have then taken at #17? We can never know the whole ripple effect of draft decisions, but these had the feel of being consequential for more than just the teams involved.
Who's Laughing Now? - The Raiders had talented edge rusher Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech) fall to them at #7 when some had him as high at #2. He could be what teammate Chandler Jones used to be. The Giants gave some couch cushion change to the Jaguars to move up for Maryland cornerback Deonte Banks, who was probably the most athletic corner in the draft and a good fit for Wink Martindale’s system. Speaking of the Jaguars, they added a fourth-, fifth-, and seventh-round pick by trading down twice and still got the player they probably would have taken at #24. The Bengals took a high-floor, high-ceiling edge rusher in Clemson’s Myles Murphy to give them a very strong foursome at the position with Trey Hendrickson, Sam Hubbard, and Joseph Ossai. The Jaguars, Bengals, and Giants have the look of good organizations, and the Raiders played the first round like one.
