Running Back Tiers, Targets, and Players to Avoid

Photo: Kim Klement, USA Today Sports

No position sees as much change in August as running back, so no position is more important to be open to rethinking your rankings, tiers, and approach to drafting. There has been a lot of news to absorb and adjustments to make, so let's get to it.

THE BIG TWO

Christian McCaffrey, SF
Austin Ekeler, LAC

CONSIDER AT ADP: McCaffrey, Ekeler

Training camp has been quiet other than a report that the 49ers were emphasizing passing to running backs in practice, but that's what we want. No other running backs offer 100+ receptions and 12+ touchdowns as a reasonable expectation. Yes, both are probably on the back nine of their careers, but neither has shown any sign of impending decline. If they avoid major injury, you'll be happy you took them over a wide receiver in the early-mid first. Combining them with a WR/WR or WR/Andrews combination in the second and third is a very sound build.

STRONG RB1

Nick Chubb, CLE
Bijan Robinson, ATL
Saquon Barkley, NYG
Tony Pollard, DAL

TARGET AT ADP: Chubb, Pollard
CONSIDER AT ADP: Robinson, Barkley

There hasn't been any major news in camp/preseason from this tier. Choosing between Chubb and Robinson in the second half of the first is tough. All observers say Robinson has looked as good as advertised, and the Falcons running game is primed for running back production. Chubb, like the big two, is probably on the back nine of his career but will get true workhorse opportunity for the first time in his career. Both are worthy picks over a second-tier WR1 in the first. Barkley and Pollard have leveled off in the second, but they are arguably first-round values. The Giants offense's arrow is pointing up coming out of camp/preseason, but Pollard has the allure of unknown upside. Whether you go running back in the first or not, both Barkley and Pollard are tough to pass on, but then again, so is Mark Andrews and your favorite second-tier WR1, but taking them as your RB2 could preclude taking advantage of running back value later.

BOOM/BUST RB1

Derrick Henry, TEN
Josh Jacobs, LV
Jonathan Taylor, IND
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET

TARGET AT ADP: Gibbs
CONSIDER AT ADP: Henry, Jacobs, Taylor

Gibbs is as good a pick as any if you're stumped in the second half of the third round or if he falls to the fourth. Everything this summer has been as good as advertised. Tennessee's offense hasn't rallied to give us more faith in Henry, and third-round pick Tyjae Spears looks ready for a significant role, but Henry in the third is still intriguing. Jacobs shot down a report that he was ending his holdout, but a half million plus a game should get him there sooner than later and make taking him in the third still a worthy risk/reward proposition. We just got news that Taylor can seek his own trade, which means that maybe his ankle is in better shape than his stay on the PUP list indicates, but there's still more risk than reward here. It's still impossible to deny that Taylor in the third could work out well for teams that take the plunge.

HIGH CEILING RB2

Dameon Pierce, HOU
Alexander Mattison, MIN
James Cook, BUF

TARGET AT ADP: Pierce, Mattison, Cook

This could just as easily be the "biggest winners of the preseason" tier. We've learned that Pierce is primed to be a true everydown workhorse now. A formidable veteran didn't join Mattison, and there have been reports that he's going to be used more in the passing game this year. Cook looks like the unquestioned RB1 in a good offense, and his team is saying the right things about him. It's possible that Damien Harris's knee issues have elevated expectations for Cook higher than the reality of his situation, but his ADP is still a value even as a 60% of the backfield work play. All three of these backs could have a lot less competition for touches

HIGH FLOOR RB2

David Montgomery, DET
Joe Mixon, CIN
Aaron Jones, GB
James Conner, ARI
Rachaad White, TB

TARGET AT ADP: Montgomery, Conner, White
CONSIDER AT ADP: Mixon, Jones

Montgomery remains one of the best values at any position. Even if he doesn't equal Jamaal Williams' 17 touchdowns, he should be a more efficient runner, and he offers more as a receiver. Mixon is the RB1 for Cincinnati by default, which isn't a great look coming off of a season that might have been the start of a decline, but it's also possible that the three-headed replacement for Samaje Perine might not get as much work as Perine did. Mixon is worth a look in the fourth, especially if you haven't drafted a running back yet. Jones is a good player, but will Jordan Love target him as much as Aaron Rodgers did? Will this offense give him chances for week-winning upside? The reports out of Green Bay are that Jordan Love is good enough, but that doesn't mean that he's actually good and will help Jones deliver on ADP. If Jones is there in the fifth, he's still worth consideration, but not over the likes of Pierce and Mattison. Conner and White are mostly unchanged, but their teams, who are clearly punting 2023, haven't brought in better competition, so they are shoo-ins to lead their backfields in touches, which is worth more than it a month ago because of rising uncertainty in backfields around the league.