Sunday Morning Update
This week will be a bit weird, as I unfortunately have a flight from 8-9:30 AM EST. I will post any updates before that flight if there are any, and then when I land, I will either try to update this mid-air or as soon as I land if there are any updates.
Sunday Morning Update #1 5:41 AM EST
A couple of big updates:
Kyler Murray is out. This is a downgrade for Trey McBride, as historically Brissett has not used his tight ends nearly at a rate of other backup/fringe level quarterbacks.
Quentin Johnston is doubtful. This is a huge upgrade for Ladd McConkey who becomes a top wide receiver on this slate at just $6,400. Keenan Allen also sees an upgrade, although it has been McConkey who has been the most negatively impacted by Johnston's emergence, so if he can get back to his 2024 form, he'll have more upside than Allen this week.
Primary Cash Lineup:
I've gone back and forth on this one quite a bit. I created some confusion by saying I was fading Javonte Williams at $7,800, and then had him included in the Primary Cash Lineup. That was due to my original Primary Cash Lineup being what ended up as the Cash Plus Lineup.
Here's where I'm landing. I don't love going down to Lawrence, but the upgrade to have a player like Taylor in the lineup is reassuring. Taylor is an astounding -300 to score a touchdown this week, which is the highest that we've seen since peak Derrick Henry. With no Kyler Murray it makes it a bit more challenging to play McBride at $6,400, and at this point, if we can get just enough from Mayer at $4,300, it allows
- QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX, $6,700
- RB Rico Dowdle, CAR, $6,600
- RB Rachaad White, TB, $6,800
- WR Ladd McConkey, LAC, $6,400
- WR Puka Nacua, LAR, $9,800
- WR Stefon Diggs, NE, $5,900
- TE Michael Mayer, LV, $4,300
- Flex RB Jonathan Taylor, $10,200
- TD Miami Dolphins, $3,000
Week 5 Recap- Win, Season Record 2-3
Week 5 was a very strange week. The cash lines were all over the place, and I realized that this lineup may not have cashed in 100% of 50/50’s, but the average 50/50 cut line was around 160, and this snuck through at 163.82. It was an extremely chalky week, driven by Rachaad White and Rico Dowdle’s popularity.
It was a bit surprising to see Justin Fields at 75% rostered. It seemed like he would be a little bit lower than that, given all of the love that Justin Herbert was getting ahead of this game.
- QB Justin Fields, NYJ, $7,700
- RB De'Von Achane, MIA, $8,100
- RB Rico Dowdle, CAR, $4,800
- WR Jakobi Meyers, LV, $6,000
- WR George Pickens, DAL, $7,100
- WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA, $5,800
- TE Tyler Warren, IND, $6,100
- Flex RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $9,500
- TD Arizona Cardinals, $4,400
This season has just been strange. Every week, it seems that the chalk is hitting, particularly at the running back position, where in Week 4 it was Omarion Hampton, and in Week 3 it was Jordan Mason. The only week where it wasn’t the case was Week 2, where Chase Brown failed to reach value at around 74% rostered.
This is largely abnormal compared to most years. Most years, while there are very chalky lineups, it hasn’t been this concentrated. Bad pricing certainly hasn’t helped things. This week should be somewhat better as it does not seem like there is a quick optimal roster that people can easily turn towards.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
Bucky Irving is out once again this week. Rachaad White will get the start and is an excellent cash game play once again.
Chris Godwin will miss for the Buccaneers. With Mike Evans already out, Tampa Bay is incredibly thin at wide receiver, although Tez Johnson is intriguing this week after his 4 reception performance in limited playing time last week.
Chuba Hubbard is likely to miss this week after not practicing on Wednesday and Thursday. Rico Dowdle will once again see the full workload for the Panthers this week. Dowdle is an excellent play this week.
Baltimore’s entire defense continues to be injured, but do look to be improving. They should get Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton back this week barring any injuries, but will still be without Roquan Smith and their starting defensive linemen.This should setup well for Los Angeles similar to what we saw last week.
Lamar Jackson will miss this week for Baltimore once again, which just continues to b ea massive problem for the Ravens this week.
Kyler Murray may miss this week with a foot injury. If he’s unable to go, Jacoby Brissett will get the start.
Omarion Hampton was placed on Injured Reserve this week. This likely creates a scenario where Kimani Vidal/Hassan Haskins cannibalize each other to the point of neither having great value.
Brock Bowers will likely miss this week with a knee injury. Tight end Michael Mayer and Jakobi Meyers should see the workload with Bowers out. Mayer has not played since Week 3 as he is returning from injury.
Week 6 Thoughts: No Simple Path
This is where it gets fun. There’s really no clear path to the optimal lineup build when it comes to Week 6. There are a number of options that you can approach this week, while stil some core players that will be in most lineups. Expect to see Rico Dowdle, Rachaad White, and Puka Nacua in a lot of lineups this week. From there, it gets a little bit more fun, especially at the quarterback position and tight end positions that will drive the rest of your roster. You could go extremely cheap at the tight end position with a player like Michael Mayer, or could go cheap at quarterback with Trevor Lawrence which is likely the route that most people are going to go with the recent Monday Night performance against Kansas City.