Sunday Morning Update
There's a lot to unpack on this Sunday Morning Update.
First, injuries. The easy one is that Deebo Samuel Sr. is out this week, which pushes Zach Ertz into a top tier tight end play. He’s a priority in that range of Mason Taylor and Michael Mayer to fit into my lineup with both Deebo and Terry McLaurin out this week.
The second injury is a massive one, but a bit more complicated. Josh Jacobs is a true game-time decision as he's dealing with an illness for the second-straight week as well as a calf injury. The team did promote Pierre Strong Jr from the practice squad indicating that there is a real chance that he misses this game.
The problem is that this is a 4:30PM EST game, and the only player that I have in my 4PM slate window is Jacory Croskey-Merritt. If Jacobs does not play, Emanuel Wilson becomes an excellent value play at $4,400. If I had to guess, I would put it at 60% that he does not play, which is why this matters. It can create a unique late swap scenario if done right.
The way that I’m approaching this is that I’m building the lineup as if Emmanuel Wilson will get the start for the Packers because I believe he will be that great of a value. The sportsbooks who are well connected with the league have Wilson as a -160 to score a touchdown which indicates that they believe he will have a significant role if not the entire role for this week.
The Packers also sat on the tarmac for 5 hours yesterday, which could not have helped the issue.
Disclaimer: If there's a chance that you will not be around for the 4PM late swap, you should either play a lineup to the original Primary Cash Lineup, or consider taking this week off.
Primary Cash Lineup-
- QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $8,000
- RB Quinshon Judkins, CLE, $7,400
- RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $10,000
- WR Chris Olave, NO, $6,200
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $9,000
- WR Stefon Diggs, NE, $5,800
- TE Zach Ertz, WAS, $5,100
- Flex RB Emanuel Wilson, GB, $4,400
- TD Cleveland, $3,900
Pivot if Jacobs is in the lineup
- QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $8,000
- RB Quinshon Judkins, CLE, $7,400
- RB Javonte Williams, DAL, $7,500
- WR Chris Olave, NO, $6,200
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $9,000
- WR Stefon Diggs, NE, $5,800
- TE Zach Ertz, WAS, $5,100
- Flex RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WAS, $6,600
- TD Cleveland Browns, $3,900
I wanted to dive a little bit deeper into the decision-making between Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb, because it is a critical decision, a deviation from what likely will be a popular play by the opponents. First of all, Lamb is a fine play. There’s nothing wrong with him; it’s just in my opinion that comparing him and Jefferson this week is not particularly close.
With Lamb, you have a player who has not played in over a month with an ankle injury. That alone is a bit scary, as to what shape he will be after not being able to practice for over a month? As a fantasy industry, there have not been enough studies on the impacts of injuries and the first game back. Often it is on a case-by-case basis, and in season-long, if you have a player like Lamb, you’re immediately starting him, especially on a small slate this week. These are humans, and missing an entire month is ultimately going to lead to a diminishing of being in-game shape. If it’s something other than a leg or ankle you can typically do other things to remain in shape, but it’s really hard to do something even like aquatic workouts with a bad ankle.
The counter argument is that the Cowboys are going to game plan a touchdown for Lamb. And while that could happen, these narratives are easy stories to tell, but rarely have any data behind them.
Week 6 Recap- Loss, Season Record 2-4
Week 6 was another frustrating week. The margins just continue to be so thin on FanDuel this year. For example, if Jonathan Taylor gets the touchdown instead of Daniel Jones running it in from inside the five, it changes the day. Or if Rachaad White gets the opportunity to punch it in instead of Sean Tucker after White drove the team down the field to get them in position to score it also would have changed the course of the day.
One of the things I like to do is look back and say to myself if I could have done this over again, would I have changed anything? The only thing I would have changed would have been Trevor Lawrence. While he wasn’t bad by any means, Drake Maye was the clear number one guy on that slate, and by forcing myself to go with Maye it would have landed on a downgrade from Jonathan Taylor to Josh Jacobs.
My overall thoughts are that this was an extremely competitive lineup, and if it’s run back tomorrow, I would still be confident in playing it. Fading Javonte Williams was completely the right call.
The key reason this lineup lost was at defense, which has been a trend this year. Multiple times, defenses have put up huge games, which have just been crushing when you don’t have them. My stance on this is pretty simple. I try to find the most sacks at the cheapest price when it comes to defense. Maybe I’m doing it incorrectly, as others are simply just playing whoever is facing Cam Ward. Even still, defense is completely random at times, which, if that’s a primary reason that I’m losing, it’s better than just not having the right individual players in the lineup. It reminds me a little bit of when FanDuel had kickers. If you lost because of a kicker, you just throw your hands up, and there’s nothing you can do. With defensive scoring so heavily weighted on turnovers, touchdowns, and with all of those being high-variance categories, it’s tough to truly project on a week-to-week basis.
But, this is a results-oriented article, and no one is more frustrated with the results than I am. Admittedly, it’s difficult to evaluate whether to completely change your process or whether to continue course based on a 2-4 start to the season. For me, it is a risk as I’ve had success with this process for a while particularly when it comes to picking defenses. I’ve looked over the last five years, and on a points-per-dollar basis, paying down for defenses has historically been the key to winning, so changing that after just six weeks seems a bit tricky. With that said, I’ll be taking either Denver or Cleveland’s defense this week, as despite the mid-range price tag, they’re still priced lower than they should be.
Week 6 Lineup
- QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX, $6,700- 19.2
- RB Rico Dowdle, CAR, $6,600- 34.9
- RB Rachaad White, TB, $6,800- 16.1
- WR Ladd McConkey, LAC, $6,400- 22.5
- WR Puka Nacua, LAR, $9,800- 3.8
- WR Stefon Diggs, NE, $5,900- 4.3
- TE Michael Mayer, LV, $4,300- 13.5
- Flex RB Jonathan Taylor, $10,200- 24.7
- TD Miami Dolphins, $3,000- 2
Injuries Create Opportunity:
David Njoku will miss this week with a knee injury. This should open up the door for Harold Fannin Jr. to have an opportunity to be fantasy relevant. It also should force Cleveland to run the ball more than what they did last week, as with only Jerry Jeudy and Fannin as the Browns primary pass catchers, it becomes extremely limited for Dillon Gabriel.
Brock Bowers is out this week with a knee injury. Michael Mayer will once again be an excellent play at the tight end position.
Jakobi Meyers will also likely miss for the Raiders. This will provide a boost to both Mayer as well as Tre Tucker who should see a boost because of this injury. Tucker is firmly in cash game consideration this week.