One peculiar instance can be written off as a blip. Two cases can be considered coincidental. But three times? Now we're starting to recognize a trend.
Whether it be my own hubris or trepidation of being wrong, I didn't want to take too many huge swings in these rest-of-season rankings through the first couple of weeks. This week's series will have the most significant changes by far.
First, we had some impactful injuries this week. Nothing reshapes a depth chart faster than injuries, creating opportunities for players who were buried just a week ago. CeeDee Lamb is expected to miss time. Najee Harris suffered what's assumed to be a season-ending Achilles injury. James Conner might be done for that year.
Second, we're starting to get a better read on some of these rookies. In the spring and summer, we view every prospect through rose-colored glasses, expecting every player to hit their high-end range of outcomes. But once the season kicks off, we're quickly reminded that not everyone is cut out for the NFL. That guy you drafted with off-the-charts size-adjusted speed might not know how to play running back at the next level.
Finally, we have more information on some teams. A handful of units running hot early maintained their momentum. (Thank you, Daniel Jones, for not Derek Carr-ing us.) And other teams blossomed into what we expected in the preseason. (Please tell me Week 3 was what Bears fans will see more of going forward.) Some teams that looked great early were exposed. ("Exposed" is harsh, but the Packers ran into a buzzsaw of a defense in Cleveland.) And unfortunately, some disappointing teams put another sad game on tape in Week 3. (Props to the Dolphins for hanging in there, but a moral victory doesn't help their 0-3 record.)
Let me paint a picture: A sunny September afternoon in Soldier Field. The Bears have some buzz. Their highly drafted quarterback showed flashes as a rookie, but consistency was an issue. In the offseason, they hired a hotshot offensive coordinator as their new coach, known for his creative game planning and quarterback development. Heading into a tough matchup, the young quarterback delivered the game of his life. 354 yards and six touchdowns.
"Wait, Dave. Caleb Williams only threw for 298 yards and four touchdowns on Sunday?"
I'm talking about Mitch Trubisky in his 48-10 win over the Buccaneers in Week 4, 2018. The parallels are uncanny, and the reminder is clear: Don't crown a quarterback after one game, no matter how good it looks.
This week's set of rankings will undergo a big shakeup, with a new name emerging at the top of the wide receiver list. As always, this is just the opinion of one staffer. For Rest-Of-Season projections, please check out Bob Henry's here.
Let's dive in, starting with the quarterbacks, who admittedly didn't have a ton of huge swings after Week 3.
Quarterbacks
After the quarterback position was rocked by injuries last week, this week is a bit calmer. The biggest changes every week will be between the low-end QB1s and middling QB2s. Those players are all bunched tightly together. So while the numbers next to the names might seem drastic, these guys are mostly sliding around with a relatively flat tier of streamable options.
- QB1 - Lamar Jackson
- QB2 - Josh Allen
- QB3 - Jalen Hurts (+1) - Hurts finally had to step on the gas when the run game was sputtering, and reminded us of his ceiling with a vintage performance.
- QB4 - Jayden Daniels (-1)
- QB5 - Patrick Mahomes II
- QB6 - Justin Herbert (+1) - The Chargers are looking unstoppable right now. Herbert is settling into Year 2 with Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman. He has a great trio of receivers, a stout offensive line, and a strong run game. Herbert's shortcomings have often been followed by an asterisk, but he's putting it together this year.
- QB7 - Kyler Murray (-1)
- QB8 - Baker Mayfield (+1)
- QB9 - Caleb Williams (+5) - Despite the tongue-in-cheek intro, Williams has a better arm and supporting cast than Mitch Trubisky ever did. I'm cautiously moving Williams up the ranks because of the breakout performance. However, the desirable rushing we saw from the first couple of games vanished in Week 3's beatdown. Still, as fantasy's QB2 for the first three weeks, he's already in the plug-and-play QB1 discussion.
- QB10 - Daniel Jones (+6) - I wrote about Jones in last week's intro, and had this week's matchup circled as one to watch. Jones and the Colts looked formidable against a good Denver defense in Week 2. They followed it up by hanging 41 on a strong Tennessee defense in Week 3. Those who are waiting for Jones and the Colts to come crashing back down to earth may be disappointed. He's the QB3 in fantasy. His +0.36 EPA/dropback leads the NFL. A league-high 41.4% play-action rate and a strong run game allow him to play extremely efficiently behind a good offensive line. One more good game on the road in Week 4 against the Rams, and we'll really start to wonder how it all went wrong in New York.
- QB11 - Jordan Love (-3) - Going on the road against Cleveland's pass rush is going to slow down almost any quarterback. Love looked great through the first few weeks, but the game plan against this defense didn't work. Going into Week 3, Love led the NFL in intended air yards per pass attempt with 12.5. The 1.6 he averaged in Week 3 was the lowest of any quarterback. A porous Cowboys' pass defense in Week 4 should help him get back on track, but this team isn't as unstoppable as they appeared.
- QB12 - Dak Prescott (-2)
- QB13 - Justin Fields (-2)
- QB14 - Drake Maye (-1)
- QB15 - Jared Goff
- QB16 - Bo Nix (-4) - Nix was drafted inside the top ten for fantasy purposes this year, but he's currently the QB19 through Week 3. He's rushing more, but his efficiency there is down. More concerning, he's passing less, and his efficiency is also dipping there. Nix is playing safer this season by not pushing the ball downfield. Contrary to what you'd expect, it's resulting in more interceptions. Much of Nix's rookie-season production was built on a sand foundation of unsustainable efficiency. And now some of that expected regression is rearing its head early in Year 2.
- QB17 - Brock Purdy
- QB18 - Cameron Ward (+1)
- QB19 - Trevor Lawrence (-1)
- QB20 - C.J. Stroud
- QB21 - Bryce Young (+1)
- QB22 - Michael Penix Jr. (-1)
- QB23 - Matthew Stafford (+2)
- QB24 - Sam Darnold (+2)
- QB25 - Aaron Rodgers (-1)
- QB26 - J.J. McCarthy (-3) - Kevin O'Connell's post-game choice of words regarding Carson Wentz shouldn't be ignored. He said Wentz deserves "another opportunity." To me, this is more about what Wentz did on Sunday rather than McCarthy's injury. Without even seeing how McCarthy's ankle responds in practice this week, they're trotting out Wentz again in Week 4. This is a team with aspirations of winning a Super Bowl, and they'll start whoever gives them the best opportunity. Beating up the Joe Burrow-less Bengals isn't anything to get too excited about. Luckily for Wentz, they'll face a relatively soft Steelers defense next week. If Wentz gets the nod going into Week 5 against the Browns and pulls out a win, we could be looking at a potential quarterback competition. That would severely dampen McCarthy's outlook. No need to panic yet, but this is a situation worth monitoring.
- QB27 - Jaxson Dart (+7) - Russell Wilson looked atrocious in Week 3 as the New York home crowd erupted into "We want Dart" chants on multiple occasions. Currently sitting at 0-3, Dart will probably be starting sooner rather than later. The first-round rookie's rushing upside and the supporting cast will likely push him into starting fantasy conversation, even in single-quarterback leagues.
- QB28 - Geno Smith (-1)
- QB29 - Spencer Rattler
- QB30 - Joe Burrow (-2)
- QB31 - Tua Tagovailoa (-1)
- QB32 - Carson Wentz (New) - Against all odds, Kevin O'Connell resuscitated Sam Darnold last year. It's too early to say he's done the same with Wentz, but this is a proven system that has helped multiple quarterbacks excel. Many people picked up Wentz in anticipation of a spot start in superflex leagues. But he's in the driver's seat now and could retain the role if he keeps winning, even if it's unlikely.
- QB33 - Russell Wilson (-2)
- QB34 - Jake Browning (-1)
Running Backs
This weekend delivered a wave of injuries that will cause massive swings in the rankings. Running back is, by nature, the most volatile position in fantasy. Outside of the elite few, you should treat them as short-term plays rather than season-long anchors. For example, Cam Skattebo might cede touches to Tracy when he returns. Until then? He'll be a plug-and-play option with RB1 upside. And what if Tracy misses more time than expected? What if Skattebo is so good that he fully secures a workhorse role? The upside is immense, and the immediate production will be flush. Javonte Williams also comes to mind. What if Miles Sanders carves out a bigger workload? What if Jaydon Blue surfaces later? Those are real issues, but they aren't impactful now. In the immediate future, these players will provide production, and that is valuable in fantasy. The long-term concerns are tomorrow's problem. Enjoy what you have while you have it.