Sleepers to Draft: The Gut Check No. 648

Sleepers are the foundation of a winning endgame. Matt Waldman profiles 10 to draft with a shot to hit.

Matt Waldman's Sleepers to Draft: The Gut Check No. 648 Matt Waldman Published 07/10/2025

© Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images Sleepers

Sleepers Are the Foundation of A Winning Endgame

Here's a list of sleepers who hit last year. All of them had summer ADPs (in parenthesis) in the 16th round or later. Players in bold were weekly starters in most formats: 

50 percent of the sleepers on this list delivered starter production in 12-team PPR formats with at least three spots for receivers and/or backs. The rest delivered at least strong flex production for no less than 5 consecutive weeks.

The same was true in 2023 with late-round producers after Round 16. You'll likely find a healthy presence of influential sleepers if you look back at any draft.

Landing 1-2 strong performers in the late rounds of fantasy drafts not only erases early-round mistakes, but it also provides depth that limits your need to make trades or scour the waiver wire.  At best, hitting on sleepers doubles your firepower at a position.

What Are Sleepers?

When considering the players listed above, most in the fantasy community only touted a few of them as worthwhile draft picks. Most of these options earned labels that made them unappealing. 

That's the essence of true sleepers: Players that most have overlooked, written off, and underrated. 

Sleepers come from the final quarter of your draft. They are the players the average GM in your league will greet with condemnation -- sometimes to mask their insecurity about their knowledge base.  

  • Didn't he retire? He's playing like he's collecting social security.
  • Who? At least pick someone on the active roster. 
  • C'mon, at least pick someone that's on my list. Here's mine, you can save face. 

Most sleepers are rookies, unproven vets, backups most don't think will inherit the volume slated for the injured starter ahead of them, or aging talents. Most quarterbacks aren't sleepers, because you don't draft late-round backups in most formats.

Still, if you knew these dupes were high on Justin Fields, Russell Wilson made a great waiver-wire sleeper you took as a preemptive pick before he ever hit the field. 

If you don't covet the player enough to draft him or consider as a preemptive free agent addition, then you don't think people are sleeping on him. 

10 Sleepers to Draft in '25 Training Camps 

Below are 10 sleepers --  receivers and running backs with ADPs no higher than the 16th round as of early July -- that you should be considering for your fantasy drafts. These are players its best to take because  the risk of massive value inflation is high when there's additional good news about them in August or early in the season.

Next week, I'll be profiling late-round sleepers you should be monitoring. I'll highlight what you should seek from the news to pull the trigger. 

The sleepers listed below are in order of their early-July ADP. It means 25-40 percent of this list sneaks its way into the consciousness of the wannabe sideline reporter crowd by month's end. 

QB Anthony Richardson Sr.: Pariah Sleepers

Bryce Young's fantasy value was nonexistent after a difficult rookie year. Fast-forward to the following September, and most of the football-watching public concluded Young's career was over. 

The narratives were some version of these two: Young couldn't handle the pressure of starting in the NFL or he was a fraud finally found out after great surrounding talent at Alabama. Maybe a combination of both. 

Most people don't understand the nature of the quarterback position. Even when they do, it's still difficult to ascertain the problem. 

Quarterbacking isn't hard science as much as it is a craft. Specifically, quarterbacks are stage performers who improvise. Even designed plays have built-in options that accomodate necessary improvisation. 

With so much new to process when going from college to the NFL, even an experienced collegiate star like Young can get too bogged down in details and overthink. It made Young -- and now Richardson -- fit the Pariah-Sleepers archetype.

There are a lot of things that happen when you overthink on stage (the field): 

  • Your reactions are too slow. 
  • Slow reactions lead to extreme behaviors: 
    • Blanking out and freezing at the next step. 
    • Attempting to compensate for the slow reaction with the first step and going too fast with the next step.
  • Overcompensating and/or blanking out after a slow reaction leads to more mistakes.
    • Executing out of rhythm.
    • Lack of precision with movement.
    • Loss of focus and skipping steps in the process or movement.
    • Loss of accuracy.
    • Careless mistakes with decisions and execution you had previously mastered.
    • Erratic decision-making.

There are so many facets to quarterbacking that integrating these into one cohesive process with accurate execution at the speed of instinct is the most difficult part of playing the most difficult position in sports. 

With a massive first-round bust rate at the position, do you think the NFL understands how to coach the position, much less consistently know how to identify what can and can't be taught? 

Richardson and Young before him are the sleepers many will cringe at the idea of drafting. He joined a team that lacked a quality offensive line, had limited refined talent at receiver, and thrust the player into the lineup too early. Richardson averaged 22.1 fantasy points per game (4th among QBs to that point) in four starts. 

In 2 of those games, Richardson played only 40 snaps. In an 18-snap outing against the Texans, Richardson delivered 15 fantasy points just as a ball carrier. 

When Richardson returned for Year Two, the Colts didn't make progress with their surrounding talent the way we saw with Young's offense in Carolina. Because Richardson entered the league with less experience than Young, his accuracy data is bad, and the NFL gossip circle condemned him for tapping out of a play, Richardson is the easy target for those to proclaim as a bust. 

We've seen sleepers emerge from this corner before. In addition to Young, Geno Smith and Sam Darnold have fit the description in recent years. 

As a high-upside QB3 or boom-bust QB2 who you can always exchange for a better performer during the season from the waiver wire, Richardson offers the highest ceiling of any player in the draft pool. In addition to his speed, size, running ability, and big-play mentality as a thrower, Richardson does things in the pocket and reading the field under pressure that are difficult to teach -- things only the best NFL passers do. 

Sleepers have outlier-caliber skills. Richardson has them in massive supply. 

The biggest question is whether Richardson can learn to integrate what he can do that most can't with what every successful quarterback must do consistently. If he can avoid the vicious cycle that most prospects fall into because of the foolish way the NFL handles young quarterbacks, Richardson has the skills to become a perennial top-five quarterback in the NFL. 

Because there's no real developmental process in the league, we're at the mercy of discovering if Richardson has done the right kind of work with the right kind of people and had the best type of experiences for it to click into place. If it sounds unlikely, you're right.

At this stage of a draft, a player with Richardson's ceiling is a low-cost stab at excellence than can change the outlook of your squad. That's the definition of good sleepers. 

TE Mason Taylor: Sleepers with Underrated Scheme and Personnel Fits

Justin Fields supported TE8 fantasy production from Cole Kmet in 2022 and 2023. Fields didn't support a fantasy-worthy receiver in 2022. While D.J. Moore was WR6 in 2023, the next-best fantasy WR for the Bears was WR83 Darnell Mooney, who was WR32 with a broken Kirk Cousins in 2024. 

Guess who was fantasy TE8 last year during Justin Fields' six-week tenure as the Steelers' starter? Pat Freiermuth. Fields' highest-ranked wide receiver was WR36, George Pickens. 

Whether you believe Fields can support Garrett Wilson is up for debate, but best believe that Fields will find his starting tight end. That option is likely the rookie Taylor. Opportunity, scheme, and talent are three strong ingredients for a sleeper. 

A smooth route runner with contested-catch skills and underrated skill as an in-line blocker from the role of a move TE, Taylor has impressed in camp and has the Jets thinking he could be the team's opening-day starter. 

Taylor fits the archetype of sleepers who lack a track record but are the best match for a high-volume role. Monitor Taylor's work in training camp. If he gets the gig, then top-12 production at the position is likely thanks to Fields' penchant for checking to the tight end. 

WR Calvin Austin III: Overlooked Emerging Talent Sleepers

The fantasy community prefers sleepers who earned production that might as well be equivalent to a breakout, but just shy of every-week starter value in two-receiver leagues. We don't lay up on the green here -- take that Insta-sleepers' trash to the dump. 

Austin is one of those sleepers who hasn't done enough to get on the popular kids' radar. He's the young and emerging talent who has continued to outperform veterans who were supposed to beat him. 

Last year, Van Jefferson was considered the starter alongside George Pickens. Jefferson is gone, thanks to Austin.  

Roman Wilson was the most popular sleeper at this time last year. A year later, there's little talk of Wilson beyond the May "Attaboy" fluff pieces that tell you to keep an eye on him because he "should" be more comfortable this year.

Overlooked due to past injury, Austin proved more athletic, skilled, and more capable of big plays. Austin reminded Russell Wilson of a young Tyler Lockett. I saw him more like Doug Baldwin, pre-draft. 

Each year, Austin has taken a statistical step forward. This is what emerging sleepers do.

Similar in physical dimensions to his NFL Draft classmate, Wan'Dale Robinson, Austin wasn't as touted despite being quicker, faster, and capable of beating man-to-man coverage and winning the ball as an outside receiver.  

If Pittsburgh doesn't add another receiver to the mix this summer, Austin is the favorite over Robert Woods to earn the No. 2 receiver on an offense that will employ a lot of alignments with two tight ends. This could lead to even better production than last year. 

So much has been made about Jonnu Smith's arrival, folks are ditching the idea that Austin can deliver in this offense. A closer look reveals that Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, has already given us a statistical blueprint of his offense in 2022. 

Atlanta's offense delivered an even split in TE production between Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts -- both earning between 600-700 yards and 3 scores. Jonnu Smith had an excellent season in Miami last year, but that was the result of injuries to the passing game.

Jonnu Smith was the healthiest and easiest target for young quarterbacks. It was a career year he won't likely match again. He won't be that option in Pittsburgh. 

Arthur Smith wanted Jonnu Smith because the tight end knows the offense and delivers excellent value after the catch. Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth are complementary receiving options who can both block in-line. 

We'll see Jonnu Smith featured in play-action game and the low red zone. Pat Freiermuth will deliver excellent value at the catch point against tight coverage up the seam and in the end zone. 

Pittsburgh wants to use 12 personnel (2 TEs) because it is the most difficult alignment for defenses to handle. The versatility of run/pass options from it creates a lot of personnel mismatches. Detroit and Baltimore are two good examples from recent years. 

Even in offenses with heavy use of 12 personnel, there must be field-stretchers who can create healthy passing lanes and make opposing defenses pay. DK Metcalf and Austin are those two players and Austin is the most sudden of the two.

With Metcalf slated to earn a lot of quick-hitting routes because he's inconsistent with contested-catch scenarios, the option with the most legitimate big-game upside in this offense is Austin. Sleepers aren't the obvious options on the surface, but have logical means to fulfill productive roles.

Aaron Rodgers was 103 yards and 2 TDs shy of a 4,000-yard and 30-TD campaign with the Jets. There's enough talent among the starting skill players to account for roughly 3,300 yards and 28 TDs of the 4,100 yards and 32 touchdowns I'm projecting for Rodgers.

If the other 10 contributors contribute an average of 82 yards and half of a touchdown for the year, Rodgers hits my projected mark. What that means for Austin in the WR2 role is 75-85 targets, 45-55 catches, 700-800 yards, and 5 scores. Add another 40-50 yards on the ground and a rushing TD into the mix, and Austin is a fantasy WR4. 

Keep in mind that Austin was doing this with YOLO-Ball King, Russell Wilson. Rodgers will be the first full-field, field general of value throwing to Austin. 

If Rodgers confounds the social haters who have let his media persona influence them, we could see Rodgers' yardage climb to 4,300-4,400 and reach 35-37 TDs. Austin could find himself with 65 catches, 900 yards, and 7 TDs -- that's WR3 production flirting with low-end WR2 value.

This will be Austin's third year on the field, and he has improved every year. Don't count him out because you hate Rodgers, you're a Steeler drama queen, or you gloss over Arthur Smith based on social media.

RB Kyle Monangai: The Low-Draft Capital/Skills-Over-Speed Sleepers

Speed is an overrated commodity with running back talent. Processing speed, contact balance, short-area quickness, and wise game management within the play design are all underrated commodities. 

Late-round sleepers at RB who can only be touted for their speed miss more often than sleepers at RB who possess the skills listed above and lack the eye-popping breakaway athletic ability.  

Monangai lacks speed, but has everything else I mentioned. He picked up the offense fast enough that he's firmly in the mix as a potential No. 2 option on the Bears' depth chart. 

David Montgomery was Ben Johnson's No. 2 option on the Lions' RB depth chart. Montgomery had no speed, but loads of contact balance, short-area quickness, and wise game management within the play design. 

After seeing Montgomery in Chicago, the fantasy community slept on him. Why? They're fixated on sleepers with speed.

Chicago didn't go for Nick Chubb or J.K. Dobbins. If Monangai plays to his ability, he could deliver fantasy RB3 value for an offense that should be better than last year, but lacking the offensive line to match what Johnson got from the Lions during the past 2-3 seasons. 

If D'Andre Swift falters, Monangai could deliver fantasy RB2 value. 

WR Tyler Lockett: Aging Sleepers with Exaggerated Demises

Age and a new team. Lockett will be 33 this year, and he's now a Titan after a decade in Seattle. He's also playing with a rookie quarterback. 

Age is going to be the big factor for most letting Lockett drop, because they'll point to consecutive years where Lockett failed to earn 1,000 receiving yards after four consecutive campaigns of topping that mark. Age is not the factor for this decline in receiving production. 

When you can discern age isn't the issue with an aging player, you're going to find viable sleepers like Lockett. 

DK Metcalf told the media after signing with the Steelers that Seattle's new offense and coaching staff -- which lasted all of one year before getting canned -- was an ineffective regime. Metcalf told a story about how Lockett and Metcalf would deliver scouting notes from their weekly film study to Pete Carroll's staff, and Carroll's staff would incorporate these findings into their game plan. 

Not Ryan Grubb's staff. For several weeks, Lockett and Metcalf took notes to the staff that revealed how easy route adjustments against specific coverage alignments could lead to successful outcomes.

When those situations arose in the game, the staff never used the suggested adjustments. Once it became clear the staff didn't value the receiving corps' scouting, they just ran the routes as dictated -- as poorly conceived as they were. 

Lockett also told NFL.com that "he sacrificed a lot of stuff last year for the betterment of the team," because the staff was focused on giving more looks to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and keeping Metcalf happy. 

Lockett's 894-yard season in 2023 wasn't far off his peak campaigns from the four seasons prior. If you're seeking an Adam Thielen-like resurgence with a new team, Lockett is a great candidate because he's still explosive, runs good routes, and can play all three receiver positions. 

Don't be surprised if he leads the Titans in receptions and is in the top two in receiving yards. 

RB Jordan James: Buried Talent on Depth Chart Sleepers

Kyle Shanahan plays musical chairs with running backs. This alone creates sleepers for fantasy GMs. 

Why does Shanahan do this? Setting depth charts for running backs in training camp without legitimate live action is a fool's errand. Shanahan has been wise enough to admit to the media that the best way to determine how a running back is performing is to see him in game action. 

Running backs get injured a lot in the NFL. It's why many running backs that appear buried on a depth chart are legitimate sleepers with in-season value.

Isaac Guerendo was no better than the RB3 on the 49ers' depth chart to begin the year. He had enough good moments that onlookers expect him to solidify his role as the heir apparent to Christian McCaffrey.

Guerendo has that type of ceiling, but flaws to address. Remember this because we've also seen fans and media clamoring to get Leonard Fournette off the field for Rachaad White in Tampa.

Now they're clamoring for Bucky Irving to be the bell-cow. If Irving struggles, make way for Sean Tucker (see below).

Meanwhile, the 49ers added James, a big enough scatback with patience and contact balance between the tackles who could develop into a lead runner for an NFL scheme. James is one of the two best pass protectors or studied at the position in the rookie class. 

Christian McCaffrey is working without limitations. I believe he'll rebound this year, but we know running back is a punishing position. Talented depth on teams with excellent schemes and supporting talent are worth adding late in drafts or as preemptive stashes off waivers. 

Jordan is one of the best rookie sleepers at the position on a good offense that can make his acclimation smoother than most. 

RB Sean Tucker: Drum Beat Sleepers

A cutback runner with physical dimensions and rushing skills that make him the best combination of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, Tucker also has breakaway speed that both backs ahead of him lack. 

Tucker might not be behind White for long. There are drum beats to follow.

Buccaneers' GM Jason Licht told the media this spring that he believes Tucker has starter talent. Head coach Todd Bowles said the offense needs to give Tucker more opportunities.

White has been on social media telling fans that this will be his last season in Tampa. These are three ddrum beats in addition to Tucker's play last year that could lead to Tucker working his way into the No. 2 role in Tampa sooner than we think. 

Tucker's big-play speed could propel him into a surprising timeshare with Bucky Irving that disappoints fantasy GMs all-in on last year's rookie darling. If there's one player I'm targeting in the late rounds, it's Tucker. He has the skills and the drum beats to become one of the best sleepers-made-good this year.

RB A.J. Dillon: Forgotten Veteran Sleepers

Will Shipley is the hot young hope as the heir apparent to Saquon Barkley. We've even seen fluff pieces this summer about Shipley based on Barkley telling the media that retirement may come for him suddenly much like Barry Sanders. 

Why Shipley? He's a second-year player with receiving talent and skill in space who is likely to inherit more time because he's the only holdover among the reserve backs behind Barkley. 

Profiling Shipley as a potential heir apparent is easy summer work while a writer is at the beach house with his sad beige family in tow. The heir apparent effective can bury veteran sleepers in the public eye.

An excellent pass catcher, Shipley has the skills to become a contributor, if not a lead option in a committee when Barkley leaves. The problem is that I can say this about a dozen running backs entering the league every year. 

It's why sleepers like Shipley are often fool's gold. 

Even when Shipley is supposed to get his shot, the Eagles will likely have another option in their sights with similar skills but a bigger frame and even more speed. Shipley would have to be Marshall Faulk or Christian McCaffrey to meet lead back expectations at his size. 

It means if Shipley earns extensive playing time this year due to a Barkley injury, we shouldn't forget about A.J. Dillon. A large bowling ball of a back with good skill between the tackles, who would have been Jim Harbaugh's running back fantasy if the timing were different, Dillon was a second-round pick for a Packers team that had Aaron Jones playing at his peak. 

Dillon has 86 catches for 763 yards and 2 scores in three seasons of significant playing time. Thinking Shipley is the slam-dunk receiving option may be premature. 

Shipley is younger and the leftover on the Eagles' depth chart. Dillon has better draft capital, but that has been forgotten. Sleepers are forgotten commodities.

Dillon is returning from a neck injury that derailed an otherwise excellent preseason in 2023. If Barkley falters, Dillon will not only have a significant role, but he could become the touch leader of the duo with the most fantasy value.

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Sleepers by Way of Logo-Scouting

A well-traveled college player, Croskey-Merritt had multiple stops that led to him only having a small amount of college eligibility last year. His athletic ability and football skills make him comparable to an Aaron Jones Starter Kit that includes many of the advanced upgrades available at his disposal, but we'll see if he can figure out how to implement them early in his career. 

Croskey-Merritt is a creative runner with excellent stop-start agility and acceleration. 

Sleepers like Croskey-Merritt exist because they have the talent to become NFL starters, but they lacked the high-profile college programs as a starting point. Expect Croskey-Merritt to emerge within the next 2-3 seasons, but it could happen this year. It depends on how fast he acclimates and the opportunity ahead of him. 

If you listen to a healthy dose of Washington Commanders fans, they're skeptical about Brian Robinson Jr, but fans always favor speed ahead of refined skills that Robinson has shown. Austin Ekeler is closer to retirement than his peak, and it's the potential for Washington to show Ekeler the door later this summer that has the fantasy public clamoring for Croskey-Merritt. 

If injuries strike and/or Croskey-Merritt proves ready, we could see a change that makes the rookie a household fantasy name this year. A safer expectation is that Croskey-Merritt delivers promising value as a situational option and not the next Bucky Irving rookie surprise. 

WR Jermaine Burton: Sleepers Written Off Too Soon

Considered the underrated option capable of delivering big as a rookie last year, Burton lacked the maturity, work ethic, and professionalism to leverage his excellent talent. His speed and man-to-man route skills were apparent during the infrequent moments he earned playing time and targets. What was absent was being on time, attentive, and putting in the daily work that's demanded from pros.

Burton could have made Tee Higgins expendable last year. Instead, Tee Higgins owes Burton a debt of thanks for his new contract. Players who rise from the ashes are also viable sleepers.

So far, Burton is saying and doing all the right things. His teammates and coaches have taken notice, and they've been public about praising him. 

Immaturity is a common issue with young talent. The maturation can come quickly, or a player could backslide a couple of times before they truly get it. 

It's unlikely the Bengals will give Burton another chance. If he can make the most of camp, he could land a contributing role. If Ja'Marr Chase gets hurt, Burton could deliver fantasy starter value and is likely the only receiver on the depth chart with the skills to replicate the roles Chase plays -- even if it's only a productive approximation of what Chase offers. 

Good Luck

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