This article comes with a disclaimer. Every week, I look at statistical trends, historic record chases, and matchups to target. I love the work and the end product.
This week is not that. Welcome to unfiltered, "Things I think."
I think I am incredibly grateful to have this opportunity to contribute to a company I believe in to my core. The subscribers I have been able to interact with have been beyond rewarding. It is because of you that I get a chance to share all the things I think, have observed, and researched weekly. Thank you.
The Target Report
I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty". Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below categorizes these offenses.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share
| Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % | Snaps | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit | 38 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 13 | 9-149-1 | 34.21% | 66 | 97% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12 | 11-45-1 | 31.58% | 50 | 74% | ||
| Brock Wright | 4 | 3-29-0 | 10.53% | 60 | 88% |
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I think lost in the Jameson Williams breakout was breaking St. Brown. His Week 11 performance against Philadelphia was brutal. Sometimes you need your star to have a star game to knock the entire offense on track. Williams was the victim of that this week. I missed it, calling Williams my start of the week. I do not think one week of recognizing St. Brown needing to see the ball go through the hoop diminishes the second-half breakout potential of Williams. If someone is ready to panic despite the strong stretch we have seen recently, buy him.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share
| Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % | Snaps | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | 30 | Rome Odunze | 9 | 3-53-0 | 30.00% | 51 | 78% |
| DJ Moore | 7 | 5-64-2 | 23.33% | 50 | 77% | ||
| Colston Loveland | 5 | 4-49-1 | 16.67% | 42 | 65% | ||
| Dallas | 35 | CeeDee Lamb | 11 | 4-75-0 | 31.43% | 63 | 85% |
| George Pickens | 9 | 9-146-1 | 25.71% | 58 | 78% | ||
| Jake Ferguson | 6 | 5-60-0 | 17.14% | 51 | 69% | ||
| Minnesota | 18 | Justin Jefferson | 6 | 4-48-0 | 33.33% | 44 | 100% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 4-19-0 | 22.22% | 30 | 68% | ||
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 4 | 3-16-0 | 22.22% | 29 | 66% | ||
| NY Giants | 34 | Wan'Dale Robinson | 14 | 9-156-1 | 41.18% | 68 | 83% |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 6 | 2-42-1 | 17.65% | 54 | 66% | ||
| Theo Johnson | 5 | 3-77-0 | 14.71% | 64 | 78% | ||
| NY Jets | 27 | John Metchie III | 7 | 6-65-1 | 25.93% | 51 | 86% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 7 | 2-42-0 | 25.93% | 50 | 85% | ||
| Mason Taylor | 5 | 3-21-0 | 18.52% | 52 | 88% | ||
| Philadelphia | 36 | DeVonta Smith | 11 | 6-89-0 | 30.56% | 60 | 95% |
| A.J. Brown | 10 | 8-110-1 | 27.78% | 59 | 94% | ||
| Saquon Barkley | 8 | 7-52-0 | 22.22% | 52 | 83% | ||
| San Francisco | 32 | George Kittle | 10 | 6-78-0 | 31.25% | 64 | 91% |
| Jauan Jennings | 7 | 5-41-1 | 21.88% | 63 | 90% | ||
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 7-53-0 | 21.88% | 58 | 83% | ||
| Seattle | 25 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 10 | 8-167-2 | 40.00% | 38 | 79% |
| AJ Barner | 4 | 2-18-0 | 16.00% | 38 | 79% | ||
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 2-24-0 | 16.00% | 37 | 77% |
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The tepid reception to Odunze is strange. He is WR14 on the season, WR19 in PPG. Understandably, there have been some peaks and valleys, but he has largely delivered what we would hope as a second-year player with Top 10 capital. Perhaps it is the drops. Or the belief that Luther Burden III will be the top receiver. Or the collective decision that Odunze was bad, allowing him to fall to WR37 ADP.
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Pickens' performance raises questions about which tandem is better: Dallas or Cincinnati. Dallas will surely tag Pickens if no long-term deal is reached. They will likely tag him, allow every possible wide receiver deal to be signed, and cost themselves in the process. The trade for Pickens was a stroke of genius.
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Jefferson is one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy. His raw volume is not horrible, though not near his peak. The lack of touchdowns drives him to his knees. Max Brosmer looks to get the next chance to salvage this season.
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Robinson is WR38 in Keeptradecut Dynasty value. He is WR11 in fantasy points. He is still "just" 24, turning 25 in January. Buying young-ish players in Dynasty who are dramatically outperforming their Dynasty value is a good practice.
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The Jets will give the young Metchie and Mitchell every chance to prove themselves in a lost season. The early returns in Metchie have been very strong, with touchdowns in consecutive weeks.
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Other than stalling with a 21-0 lead, the Eagles did what we wanted to see from a passing offense for fantasy. I am a sucker, but I will continue to bet on players who have shown the ceiling Brown has throughout his career. This was the type of performance that stemmed the bleeding on his value loss. Smith could post the best season of his career. That feels very under the radar, especially given the narratives around the team.
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Rinse and repeat. The 49ers have their top three targets and have engineered the offense around utilizing them evenly. Ricky Pearsall is still ramping up his involvement, though the more significant concern may be Brock Purdy's ability to hit him on vertical plays. Purdy was horrible, especially down the field, underthrowing multiple alls into coverage. Another performance like this may not create outright quarterback controversy with Mac Jones, but it would start a conversation.
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I'm thankful for Dave Kluge. For a great many reasons, but one of them was Dave turning me on to Smith-Njigba this offseason to a high degree. It was a great call as Smith-Njigba is mathematically on pace to become the first wide receiver to top 2,000 yards. Also, trading for Rashid Shaheed and then not using him at all feels wasteful.
Offenses with Top 1 Option > 25% and Top 3 < 70% Target Share