FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 5

Some weeks are tougher than others when it comes to writing a DFS article with a Saturday morning deadline, and this week may be one of the most difficult of the 2026 season. The biggest decisions hinge on injury information we will not get until Sunday morning, and that news will change not only my projections in several spots but also our final percent rostered projections from Devin Knotts. So instead of pretending to have all the answers on who will be in and who will be out, I want to start by ranking the biggest moving parts of the week through the lens of the players they affect.

1. Mike Washington Jr., Raiders, $4,900

When you consider just how cheap Washington is, the biggest question on the slate is whether Ashton Jeanty plays. Jeanty is questionable with ankle and foot injuries after he was limited on Thursday and did not practice on Friday, and if he sits, Washington is going to have a huge workload. I would project him for more than 20 touches (about 21 carries and three catches). Washington is a talented back in a pretty good offense, and at $4,900 he would be massively underpriced for that role. He projects for 18 FanDuel points if he starts, while the next-best projection on the slate under $5,000 is 8.2 points. That changes the whole slate, because while there is decent value this week, almost all of it sits in the $6,000 range (Jaylen Warren at $6,700, D'Andre Swift at $6,500, Aaron Jones Sr. at $6,200 and Braelon Allen at $5,900) rather than below $5,000. A starting Washington frees up enough salary to pair Jahmyr Gibbs with the expensive receivers, and he lands in 23 percent of the optimal lineups in my current projections, second only to Gibbs among running backs. If Jeanty plays, Washington goes back to the backup role in which he has handled just 24 carries through four games. My gut feeling is that Jeanty gets the week off and Washington has a nice game against the Patriots.

2. The Bengals' receivers

Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (groin) are both questionable for a game in which Cincinnati has the second-highest implied total on the slate as a 7-point favorite in Miami. Chase is still in the concussion protocol despite a full practice on Friday, and Higgins, who got hurt late in Week 4 after catching 11 of 16 targets for 157 yards, practiced for the first time all week on Friday and is expected to test his groin in pregame warmups. Zac Taylor said there is more he needs to see before clearing either one. If both play, Chase is one of the best leverage plays on the slate at 8.5 percent rostered. If only one of them plays, the other becomes one of the best values on the board. With Chase out, my projection has Higgins at about 10 targets and 18.8 FanDuel points, the best points per dollar of any receiver on the slate at $7,500, and with Higgins out, Chase jumps to 12 targets and 21.8 points. If both Chase and Higgins are out, Dohnte Meyers ($5,400) becomes one of the best value plays of the week.

3. Jaylen Warren, Steelers, $6,700

Rico Dowdle is questionable with a toe injury after limited practices all week, the same designation that kept him out last week. I am projecting him to sit, which means Warren projects as a workhorse with 18 or more carries and about seven targets against an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs, and he is projected to be one of the more popular plays on the slate. If Dowdle plays, Warren likely goes back to sharing the backfield, and one of the most obvious value plays on the slate becomes a much tougher call.

4. The Chargers' receivers

Quentin Johnston and Brenen Thompson are both out, and Ladd McConkey is questionable after not practicing on Thursday or Friday with a foot injury, so his status could go either way. The Chargers will also be without both starting offensive tackles, but their receivers get a depleted Denver secondary, with starting cornerbacks Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss both ruled out. If McConkey sits, Tre' Harris ($5,500) and Oronde Gadsden ($5,000) are in line for a big share of Justin Herbert's targets. I don't feel great about either one, but the projected volume at those price points is impossible to ignore.

5. The Vikings' receivers

Justin Jefferson (ankle) and Jordan Addison (hamstring) are both questionable after limited practices on Friday, and their availability could decide whether Odell Beckham Jr. makes his Vikings debut. Aaron Jones Sr. is my good chalk pick at running back either way, but if either receiver sits, Jones and T.J. Hockenson should see even more work. If one of the two sits and the other plays, the one who plays moves up the list to become one of the better GPP options on the slate.

A few other questionable players are worth tracking before lock. Terry McLaurin was limited on Friday after missing last week, Alvin Kamara was limited with a back injury, Rhamondre Stevenson says he is ready to go despite a knee injury, and George Holani (ribs) would be the Seahawks' No. 2 back with Zach Charbonnet out.

Fortunately, we do have some of the answers to the test. Breece Hall is out, so Braelon Allen has the Jets' backfield to himself, and Kyle Monangai has been ruled out, so D’Andre Swift should handle a full workload. Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman Jr and Adonai Mitchell are all out, which concentrates targets on McLaurin, DK Metcalf and Garrett Wilson, and with Jayden Reed and Savion Williams both out in Green Bay, Matthew Golden is a nice target.

My fantasy point projections are built on a simulation of every game on the slate run ten thousand times. The simulation also solves the best possible FanDuel lineup in each of those ten thousand worlds, and how often a player lands in that best lineup is his optimal percentage. For tournaments, what matters is how that number compares to our percent rostered projections. When the field is on a player far more often than he shows up in the optimal lineups, he is over-rostered relative to what the numbers say and not a great play, and when the reverse is true, he is a leverage play and someone I want in my GPP lineups.

At each position, I will show you which players are expected to be the most popular (the chalk), with the ones I think are worth going heavy on at that elevated percent rostered marked as good chalk, and then a list of other targets who are flying a little further under the radar and whom my process likes more than the field does.

ROADBLOCK

Slate Overview

The table below gives a big-picture view of the slate. It shows each team's implied total and how it compares to my season projection for that offense, along with two numbers that frame everything that follows. The first is how often that team's players show up in the optimal lineups across the ten thousand simulations, and the second is how often we project them to show up on the field's rosters. When a team's players fill more of the optimal lineups than the field is projected to roster them, our competition is probably overlooking that offense, and when the reverse is true, the field is probably overplaying it.

This week's main slate has 11 games, and the Lions-Cardinals game stands apart from the rest. Cincinnati has the second-highest implied total at 25.25, while Tennessee has the lowest at 15.25 against Houston.

Detroit Lions, 30.0, at Arizona Cardinals, 24.5

Detroit is a 5.5-point road favorite in a game with a 54.5 total, nine points higher than any other game on the slate. The Lions' 30-point implied total is the highest on the board and 13 percent above my season number for Detroit, and Arizona's 24.5 is 17 percent above my season number for the Cardinals. This could be one of the most popular games of the season. Lions players fill about 106 percent of the field's projected roster spots (more than one Lion per lineup on average) against 81 percent of the optimal lineups, a 25-point gap that is about 9 points wider than any other team's, and Cardinals players fill about 72 percent of the field's roster spots against 65 percent of the optimal lineups. Put together, the field is projected to roster about two players from this game in the average lineup.

The matchup data explains why the simulation is more excited about Arizona's side than the field is. Detroit's defense has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and tight ends this season and the second-most to wide receivers, and it will be without safety Brian Branch, whom Dan Campbell called a "tall order" to play this week as he works back from his Achilles injury. That sets up well for Jacoby Brissett, Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, who are all near the top of the optimal lineups at their positions, and the news that Marvin Harrison Jr.. will not play this weekend amid reports that he is being traded only helps. With Harrison's targets off the board, my projection moves McBride (to 18.1 FanDuel points) and Wilson (to 17.1) up by about three-quarters of a target and a point and a half apiece. On the other side, Arizona has been much tougher against the run (the third-fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs) than against the pass (the fourth-most allowed to quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends), which is part of why the field is a little ahead of the simulation on Gibbs (41.4 percent rostered against 33.3 percent optimal), even though he still lands in more optimal lineups than any other player on the slate.

If you are building around this game, I'm a bit wary of playing Jared Goff with Amon-Ra St. Brown or Gibbs, since Goff is projected to be 18.5 percent rostered against just 8.2 percent optimal. I prefer starting with Brissett, McBride and/or Wilson and running it back with Gibbs, who is the most common bring-back in Brissett's optimal lineups.

Las Vegas Raiders, 21.0

As mentioned in the introduction, there is a lot up in the air with the Raiders' projections. Las Vegas players fill 56 percent of the optimal lineups against 42 percent of the field's projected roster spots, and a big part of that gap comes from my projecting Jeanty to sit, which puts Washington in 23 percent of the optimal lineups, while our percent rostered projections still have Jeanty at 11.3 percent and do not include Washington yet. Beyond the running backs, I also like Brock Bowers, who lands in 19.4 percent of the optimal lineups against 11.3 percent rostered.

Houston Texans, 22.25

Houston is an offense the field is overlooking, with Texans players filling 44 percent of the optimal lineups in the simulations against 32 percent of the field's projected roster spots. Nico Collins (19.4 percent optimal against 15.2 percent rostered) and C.J. Stroud (5.8 against 2.8) account for most of the gap.

Denver Broncos, 22.5

Denver is the other offense the field is underweight on, with Broncos players filling 35 percent of the optimal lineups against 24 percent of the field's projected roster spots. The defense accounts for a big part of that gap (6.8 percent optimal against 2.6 percent rostered), because the Chargers will be without Johnston, Thompson and both starting offensive tackles, and Herbert has thrown six interceptions and taken 12 sacks through four games. The one thing working against Denver's defense is its own secondary, which will be without Surtain and Moss. On offense, Sean Payton has taken back play-calling duties, which adds some upside to the Broncos' skill players.

Quarterbacks

Goff is projected to be the most popular quarterback by a wide margin at 18.5 percent rostered, but he lands in only 8.2 percent of the optimal lineups. He has been excellent this season, with 1,214 passing yards and nine touchdowns through four games, but Detroit's offense runs through Gibbs, whom my projection has at 22 carries and more than a touchdown on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers (7.3 percent rostered against 3 percent optimal) and Sam Darnold (6.8 against 3.4) are the other quarterbacks I would go under the field on, while Jordan Love is priced about right at 4.7 percent rostered and 4.5 percent optimal.