Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame member Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts, with three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
After a month of free agency, the landscape of both the NFL and fantasy football has changed dramatically. Scores of players have changed teams this year, and literally billions of dollars have been spent on contracts.
The focus of many in the fantasy community has already turned to the 2026 NFL Draft, but before we go all-in toward Pittsburgh, Harris and Davenport have gathered to put a bow on free agency's fantasy impact.
Quarterback Carousel
With the signing of Kirk Cousins by the Las Vegas Raiders, the free agent cupboard at quarterback is officially bare. Among the signal-callers on new teams, do any have the potential to be viable weekly fantasy starters in 2026?
Harris: I'd really like to be super-edgy and go with Malik Willis in Miami. While one could argue that a wide receiving corps bereft of high-end talent after Jaylen Waddle was traded to Denver might force him to run more -- a development that would be a fantasy delight -- one could more easily argue that the lack of passing upside would be an issue.
That won't be the case for Kyler Murray in Minnesota, assuming he is the Vikings' starter.
The presence of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. Also, Kevin O'Connell calling the shots in Minnesota instills more confidence than Bobby Slowik doing it in Miami.
On top of that, Murray's dual-threat ability -- five seasons of 400 or more rushing yards -- shouldn't be overlooked.
The first overall pick of the 2019 draft, Murray is one of five players in NFL history, along with Buffalo's Josh Allen, Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, New York's Russell Wilson, and former Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, to throw for more than 20,000 yards and run for more than 3,000 yards in their seven seasons.
Murray has thrown for 121 touchdowns and 60 interceptions in seven seasons. He also has 32 rushing touchdowns.
While he's averaged just over 456 rushing yards and 4.5 touchdowns on the ground per season, his QB2 2020 campaign (he ran for 891 yards and 11 touchdowns) demonstrates how high his rushing ceiling could be.
Davenport: How did I know that Harris was going to take Murray? Have a feeling that's going to be something of a theme here.
I'm with Harris in having doubts about Willis in Miami—at least as things stand today. Yes, Willis looked good in a limited sample size in Green Bay. Yes, his rushing ability is appealing to fantasy managers in a vacuum. But the problem is that the pass-catchers in Miami are a vacuum, too—in that they suck. That could change somewhat in the days and weeks to come, but right now it's next to impossible to get excited about the Dolphins' offense.
While speaking to reporters, new Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski said that he and Tua Tagovailoa both have something in common—they want to embark on a revenge tour.
"There's something to be said when you're fired," Stefanski said. "I can attest to that. You want to prove people wrong. You have a chip on your shoulder. I think where I'm coming into this, where Tua's coming into this is, listen, this is not exactly how you thought it would go, but guess what, that's the reality, and how are we gonna respond? I think that's what he's made of. You look back at his career, you look back at his college career, he's responded."
Yes, Tagovailoa has limitations, not the least of which is his durability issues. He also has to beat out Michael Penix Jr. for the starting job, although Tagovailoa will have a chance to stake his claim as Penix works back from an ACL tear. But Tagovailoa led the league with 4,624 passing yards in 2023 and led the league in completion percentage two years ago. If Stefanski can scheme Tagovailoa quick, one-read throws, and he can stay healthy, the offensive weapons are there in Atlanta—enough so for Tagovailoa to potentially sneak into the back end of QB1 territory.
Backfield Bedouins
It was a quiet year of free agency at running back—quite a few backs returned to their teams, although the MVP of Super Bowl LX found a new home. Of this year's free agent class in the backfield, who will see the biggest change in value this year—for better or worse?
Harris: As always, I like the moves that weren't made as much as the moves that were. Javonte Williams remaining with Dallas and J.K. Dobbins re-signing with the Broncos are both players I like. Expecting finishes similar to last year is reasonable for both.
But if we're looking at new faces in new places, I'll pick the low-hanging fruit: Ken Walker III in Kansas City.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid hasn't hesitated to lean on a featured back when he's had one on the roster, and Walker's contract (three years, $43 million) screams big workload. So does the supporting cast. While fellow newcomer Emari Demercado is a better pass blocker, he's not a threat to cut as significantly into Walker's workload as Zach Charbonnet was in Seattle.
It's reasonable to believe that Walker's tendency to get nicked up and miss time with injury was a factor in last year's split workload. We'll see if he can avoid health issues as we go through training camp this summer, but if we believe he won't be in the 50-50 timeshare we saw last year, it's safe to assume his production will rise.
His price already has.
Walker is RB10 on our current Average Draft Position (ADP) Rankings. He was RB15 before signing with the Chiefs.
His Footballguys projection, RB13, also feels solid. We've seen Walker produce at that level. He was RB12 on a points-per-game basis over the 11 games he played in 2024. He finished last season as RB22 in total points and 29th in points per game (with 11.3).
I'm expecting Walker to deliver closer to his high end this year.
Davenport: Yep. It's going to be a theme here. Guess that's what happens when one of us is an FSWA Hall of Famer and the other is, well, me.
Honestly, at cost, I don't know that I love either of this year's biggest running back signings in 2026. As Harris already mentioned, Ken Walker III has something of a history of getting nicked up, and Travis Etienne Jr. could be hard-pressed to back up last year's RB10 finish in PPR points playing for a New Orleans Saints team that was 28th in the league last year in rushing at just 94.3 yards per game—especially if Alvin Kamara is still lurking around to poach touches.
It's going to be interesting to see what the Pittsburgh Steelers have in mind for Rico Dowdle this year. Mike McCarthy coached Dowdle back in 2024, when Dowdle posted his first of two straight 1,000-yard seasons on the ground on the way to RB2 fantasy numbers. Jaylen Warren is still in Pittsburgh, but whether it's what's left of Aaron Rodgers or someone else under center in the Steel City, Pittsburgh is going to have to lean on the run. Frankly, we may see a switch in roles, with Dowdle playing the role Warren did in 2025 while Warren assumes Kenneth Gainwell's passing-down role. Regardless, we just saw both Steelers backs finish inside the top-20 in PPR points.
It can happen again.
This idiot is also curious to see what's in store for Tyler Allgeier in Arizona after he signed a two-year, $12.25 million pact to join the Redbirds. James Conner is admittedly still in the desert, but he's an aging back who played just three games last year. As a rookie back in 2022, Allgeier topped 1,000 rushing yards and averaged 4.9 yards per carry. If/when Conner falters, it's going to be Allgeier's time to shine, and the best season of his career is incoming.
Book it!
Receiver Roulette
There was more movement at wide receiver than at any fantasy-relevant position in free agency this year, with quite a few moves that could impact fantasy managers this year. What was your favorite? Which fit did you find most questionable?
Harris: If I didn't think A.J. Brown was going to wind up being traded to New England, this might be a different answer. But I do think Brown will end up being a limiting factor for Romeo Doubs in his new home, so I'm going with Wan'Dale Robinson in Tennessee.
The presence of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll -- who coached Robinson with the Giants -- will work in the wideout's favor. The four-year, $70 million contract the Titans gave Robinson suggests they also see his potential after last year's breakout season and believe there's room for growth.
The Titans got promising play out of rookies Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor last season, and re-signed Calvin Ridley this past week. But adding a dynamic playmaker makes sense.
The incoming staff needs Cameron Ward to take a big step in Year 2 so they can capitalize on having a quarterback on a rookie contract.
For that to happen, Robinson, who has averaged more than 90 receptions over the past two seasons, must continue to serve as a high-volume target capable of working across multiple levels of the field.
Even with Ridley back, I expect Robinson to be the team's most targeted receiver.
While he's still the first Titans wideout off the board, Robinson's ADP hasn't yet reflected this move; he's currently going as WR43.
Getting a player who finished last season as WR13 at WR4 prices feels like a very safe bet.
DJ Moore being traded to Buffalo makes sense for both Chicago and the Bills. With Moore, the Bills will now have a top-caliber receiving weapon for quarterback Josh Allen -- a role the team has not had over the last couple of seasons.
But does that guarantee a big fantasy finish?
There are things to like here. Moore will reunite with Joe Brady, who served as the receiver's offensive coordinator in Carolina from 2020 to 2021. In his first season under Brady, Moore had 1,193 receiving yards and a career-high 18.1 yards per catch.
But it's worth noting that Brady also helped Allen lower his interception rate by using a spread-the-wealth approach. The message to Allen is: Don't feel like anyone needs to get fed. In 2024, Brady's first full season as the Bills' offensive coordinator, Allen's interception rate fell to a career low of 1.2 percent.
"[Allen]'s extremely mindful, understanding that when he plays good football, sound football -- when he's checking the ball down and progressing through -- we're tough to beat," Brady said early last year.
Unfortunately, if we're talking fewer big plays, spreading the ball around to more weapons, and not focusing on any one target, it's going to be hard for Moore to be more than a WR3 with WR2 upside on a week-to-week basis.
Davenport: I'm a little surprised by Harris' excitement level about Robinson and his reluctance about Moore, although it's hard to argue with the former's price tag in middling WR4 territory. Of course, if I disagree with Harris, there's a 146 percent chance that he will be right, so that's worth bearing in mind.
See, the thing is, I'm dumb.
The 2025 season was a downer for Mike Evans—after 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons to open his career (an NFL record), Evans missed over half the season and caught just 30 passes. Evans will admittedly be 33 years old when his first season with the San Francisco 49ers in 2026, but he's also going to be far and away the No. 1 option in the Niners passing attack—especially early in the season. Two years ago in Tampa, Evans posted a 74/1,004/11 stat line on 110 targets and was WR11 in PPR points. He'll at least match that finish in 2026.
Book it again, baby!
Alec Pierce didn't move, unless you count moving up several tax brackets after getting $28.5 million a season to stay with the Indianapolis Colts. Pierce eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards last year for the first time and has led the league in yards per catch each of the past two years, but Pierce also caught just 47 passes and finished outside the top-25 receivers in PPR points. Given the uncertainty at quarterback in Indianapolis and the added attention Pierce is going to see from opposing defenses, it's hard to see where a big jump is going to come from.
