The entire purpose of this series is to react to new information. In theory, that sounds simple. Player A is doing well? Move him up. Player B is doing poorly? Move him down.
In practice, it is much more difficult.
I ranked two quarterbacks aggressively this preseason. Two guys inside the top-12 quarterbacks who I expected to return value. And through Week 3, they were QB24 and QB31 in fantasy.
In last week's series, I wrote, "I'm not entirely sure why Drake Maye and Justin Herbert have been so bad, but we can't ignore it."
Both quarterbacks are on the right side of the age curve. Both quarterbacks have proven they can deliver elite fantasy production. They seemed to be two of the best values you could target at the position this preseason. But for whatever reason, they weren't producing through the first three weeks, so I had to move them down.
Maye responded with his best fantasy outing of the season. He led all quarterbacks in Week 4 fantasy scoring, and could have had an even bigger day if not for a few close calls. A well-placed ball was popped up for a fluky interception. Maye's big run ended at the pylon, just short of a touchdown. To put it bluntly, I was a fool for knocking Maye down in my rankings last week.
Herbert, however, had a different day. On his first dropback, he rifled a ball directly into a defender's chest. He had another atrocious interception later. He finished the day with four sacks and a lost fumble. He passed for just 189 scoreless yards. Good on me for having the foresight to move him down in my rankings last week, huh?
This is all part of the game we play. We build up our assumptions in the preseason, and Week 1 quickly shows us how right or wrong we were. Week 2 makes us rethink everything. Week 3 tricks us into thinking we've identified trends. And Week 4 can make us even more entrenched in could-be traps.
It's difficult not to react to every little thing that happens. It's equally hard to maintain composure and stick to a process.
A week ago, I treated Maye and Herbert as the same problem. One week later, they look like completely different players, and I'm trying not to make the same mistake twice by overreacting in the other direction.
So here's how I'm approaching it this week: four weeks of data matter more than three, but they don't erase everything we believed in August. A player who's been bad for a month gets moved. A player who's been bad for one game gets a closer look before he gets moved. I won't get every call right (see: Maye, Drake), but I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right by accident (see: Herbert, Justin).
As a reminder, all movers will be noted with a "+" or "-" showing the change from last week's rankings. Significant movers will have a write-up explaining the change. New additions to the rankings will be marked as "New." Use these rankings to guide waiver wire moves and trade decisions. Target risers, cut fallers, and try to improve your roster where you can.
Let's dive in.
Rest-Of-Season Fantasy Football Rankings
Rest-Of-Season Quarterback Rankings
These rankings, preseason ADP, and the current fantasy leaders only have one thing in common: Josh Allen. Aside from that, this year has been a wild departure from everyone's expectations. Bryce Young and Kirk Cousins are top-eight in scoring. Justin Herbert and Drake Maye are both outside the top 20. Four of the top-12 quarterbacks in preseason ADP are currently injured. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels got a start in Week 4, and seventh-rounder Athan Kaliakmanis attempted 33 passes in London. Just like we all expected.
- QB1 - Josh Allen
- QB2 - Lamar Jackson
- QB3 - Brock Purdy
- QB4 - Joe Burrow
- QB5 - Patrick Mahomes II (+2)
- QB6 - Dak Prescott (+2)
- QB7 - Trevor Lawrence (-2)
- QB8 - Caleb Williams (+1)
- QB9 - Drake Maye (+4) - A week after finally docking Maye after a rough three-game stretch to start the season, Maye reminded us of his upside as a fantasy asset in Week 4. Maye led all quarterbacks in scoring, passing for 269 yards and three touchdowns while adding 54 yards on the ground and coming up just short of a rushing score. His day was even better than the box score shows. Maye started the season in Seattle, at home against Pittsburgh, then in Jacksonville, all difficult matchups. Buffalo's softer defense offered a get-right opportunity, and Maye took it. The Patriots schedule softens after this: Raiders, Jets, Bears, Dolphins, Packers, Lions, Chargers, Bills. Maye was fantasy's QB2 last year, showing an elite blend of passing and rushing. While his early-season slump will keep us on watch, Maye can quickly move back up the rest-of-season rankings and is a top-ten quarterback this week against the Raiders.
- QB10 - Jalen Hurts (-4)
- QB11 - Bo Nix (-1)
- QB12 - Tyler Shough (+2)
- QB13 - Jared Goff (-1)
- QB14 - Matthew Stafford (-3)
- QB15 - Bryce Young (+1)
- QB16 - Jayden Daniels (+6) - Daniels surprisingly returned to practice last week. Although he was ultimately inactive for the London game against the Colts, he practiced every day, albeit in a limited capacity. Still, he appears motivated to return soon. Furthermore, Marcus Mariota suffered what appeared to be a bad knee injury and is likely to be out for an extended period. Unthinkable when he went down, a Week 5 return for Daniels is possible. The risk of reinjury makes him a shaky start when he's back, but his upside will keep him firmly in the weekly QB1 conversation.
- QB17 - Justin Herbert (-2)
- QB18 - Jordan Love (+2)
- QB19 - Kyler Murray (-2)
- QB20 - Daniel Jones (-2)
- QB21 - Geno Smith
- QB22 - Deshaun Watson (+4) - Currently the QB12 in fantasy scoring, Watson is back on the fantasy radar. He's rushing for the most yards per game since 2018 and averaging his most fantasy points since 2020. The Browns are 3-1 right now, shockingly sitting at first place in the AFC North. The Browns schedule gets harder late in the season, but this team is punchy. Watson is rushing well and getting the ball to the team's young corps of talented playmakers. Watson is a quality streamer heading into a Week 5 matchup against the Jets.
- QB23 - Michael Penix Jr. (+1)
- QB24 - C.J. Stroud (-1)
- QB25 - Kirk Cousins (+2)
- QB26 - Sam Darnold (-1)
- QB27 - Malik Willis (-8) - No one really expected the Dolphins to be a good football team this year, but there was an expectation that Willis' rushing would at least make him a viable fantasy asset. He's the per-game QB35 through Week 4. He's averaging just 4.8 carries for 28 rushing yards per game. And while modest rushing could bump a decent passer into elite fantasy tiers, Willis' passing numbers have been horrendous. His passing EPA ranks 45th of 49 qualifying quarterbacks. No quarterback with over 200 snaps has a lower passing success rate. He's passed for just one touchdown all year. Willis could have the occasional boom game given his skill set, but he's not startable right now.
- QB28 - Aaron Rodgers
- QB29 - Cam Ward
- QB30 - Jameis Winston (+2)
- QB31 - Baker Mayfield (-1)
- QB32 - Jacoby Brissett (-1)
- QB33 - Carson Wentz (+1)
- QB34 - Jalon Daniels (+1)
- QB35 - Tyson Bagent (+12)
- QB36 - J.J. McCarthy
- QB37 - Shedeur Sanders
- QB38 - Fernando Mendoza
- QB39 - Justin Fields
- QB40 - Mac Jones
- QB41 - Drew Lock
- QB42 - Tyler Huntley (New)
- QB43 - Tua Tagovailoa (-1)
- QB44 - Ty Simpson (-1)
- QB45 - Carson Beck (-1)
- QB46 - Marcus Mariota (-13)
- QB47 - Riley Leonard (-2)
- QB48 - Cooper Rush (-2)
- QB49 - Case Keenum (-1)
- QB50 - Will Howard (-1)
- QB51 - Gardner Minshew II (-1)
- QB52 - Joe Flacco (-1)
- QB53 - Athan Kaliakmanis (New)