Week 2 of the DFS season is always a challenge. We are balancing what we just saw in Week 1 with what we believed coming into the year. Was last week the start of a new trend, or just noise from a small sample? How much should preseason expectations and 2024 performance still matter?
As the season progresses, this article will lean more heavily on numbers. Once we have larger sample sizes, success in DFS often comes down to digging into the stats. Early in the year, though, it is more about blending data with context. The goal is to avoid overreacting to one game while also not ignoring real signs that something has changed.
That means I will keep the data deep dives and word counts a bit lighter in September. The focus here is more on strategy, contest dynamics, and the thought process behind the lineups I am actually building. I will lean heavily on the Footballguys FanDuel projections and the Percent Rostered projections from Devin Knotts as key pieces of the puzzle.
For Week 2, we will start with a look at the matchups before going position by position through some favorite plays. Each section will be split into two categories: “Good Chalk,” where we highlight popular plays worth following, and “Under the Radar,” where we target players I like who are projected to draw less attention.
Matchups and Slate Overview
One way to spot potential value is to compare each team’s implied total from oddsmakers to how many points per game they average. With only one week under our belts in 2025, this metric is less useful than it is later in the season. However, we can compare Week 2 Team Totals to how each team performed in 2024. This gives us an early sense of which offenses are expected to exceed or fall short of their 2024 scoring pace. The tables below highlight the best matchups (teams projected to score above last year’s average) and the worst matchups (teams projected below it).
Best Matchups
Here are the teams expected to outperform versus their 2024 scoring averages in Week 2. This will be due to a combination of offseason changes for the offense and the defense they will face in Week 2.
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The Patriots have a team total of 21.0, which would be a big jump from last year’s average and their 13-point showing in Week 1. Drake Maye has flashed talent but has only one win in 11 games with extended snaps. He heads to Miami as a road underdog in a game with sneaky shootout potential, needing to turn encouraging stats into actual points and wins.
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The Jaguars face a favorable spot against the Bengals. Cincinnati held the Browns to modest scoring in Week 1, but that included two fluky interceptions off tipped passes. Cleveland still moved the ball with ease, which could spell trouble against Jacksonville’s dangerous young offense.
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The Eagles defense looked vulnerable at times in the opener against Dallas. It is possible last year’s dominant unit has slipped with key personnel losses, or perhaps the Cowboys offense is simply that good. Week 2 should provide more clarity on whether Philadelphia’s defense remains elite.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams expected to underperform versus their 2024 scoring averages in Week 2. This will be due to a combination of offseason changes for the offense and the defense they will face in Week 2.
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It is no surprise to see the three offenses that averaged over 30 points per game last season come in with lower Week 2 team totals. The key takeaway is that Buffalo and Baltimore are still projected close to last year’s lofty averages, which makes their top players strong DFS options again this week.
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The Lions are trickier to evaluate. Their offense looked stagnant against the Packers in Week 1, but it may say more about Green Bay’s defense than Detroit’s attack. After the Packers shut down another strong offense in Week 2, there is more reason to believe Detroit’s opening-week struggles were just an outlier.
Quarterback
Josh Allen
Divisional history suggests a solid floor with a slightly muted ceiling. In two games against the Jets last season, Allen failed to top 215 passing yards or 20 rushing yards, but he still found the end zone three times in each matchup (two passing, one rushing). The new coaching setup and a more man-heavy approach could shift the calculus. Allen has traditionally punished man coverage, and when he faced Aaron Glenn’s Detroit defense last year he erupted for 41.3 FanDuel points.
Favorite stack: Keon Coleman
Joe Burrow
Burrow came out hot against the Browns with two early touchdown drives, then the offense disappeared, producing only seven yards after halftime. We have seen slow Week 1 starts from him before. He has averaged 11.4 FanDuel points in Week 1 and roughly double that the rest of the season. Back home against a Jaguars defense that allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points to quarterbacks (20.4) last year, this sets up as a clean bounce-back spot for Burrow and the Bengals.
Favorite stack: Ja’Marr Chase
Patrick Mahomes II
The Eagles ranked as the fourth-toughest defense for opposing quarterbacks last season (15.2 FanDuel PPG), which helps explain the muted interest in Mahomes. Philadelphia lost multiple starters from that group, so it is not clear this is still a unit to avoid. Mahomes’ recent rushing adds ceiling: he ran for 57 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 and has averaged 7.5 carries over his last four games dating back to the playoffs.
Favorite stack: Travis Kelce
Jared Goff
There was plenty of hand-wringing after the Lions sputtered in Week 1 against the Packers. It may say more about Green Bay’s defense than Detroit’s offense. If the Lions are fine, Goff is live for a spike game. He threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns against the Bears in Week 16 last season and hit 300 yards with three scores in five games, roughly 30% of his outings. He should come in under-rostered this week.
Favorite stack: Jameson Williams
Drake Maye
It is time for results. Maye is 1–10 in games where he has played at least half the snaps, but the matchup is friendly after Miami was shredded by Indianapolis. Daniel Jones just posted 29.5 FanDuel points against this defense, and Maye brings a similar dual-threat profile. If New England is going to make a push, this sets up as a get-right spot.
Favorite stack: TreVeyon Henderson
Running Back
Derrick Henry
Henry posted 151 total yards and two touchdowns the last time Baltimore hosted Cleveland. He should be plenty motivated after the trash talk from Grant Delpit and the costly fumble against Buffalo. That mistake overshadowed an otherwise excellent 2025 debut in which he racked up 182 total yards and two scores. This sets up as another heavy-volume spot.
Christian McCaffrey
I debated whether he belongs here or in the under-the-radar section. He is currently projected for single-digit roster rates, but I expect that to climb into the teens by kickoff given his projection (about 20 FanDuel points). Injuries around him may ding efficiency, but the workload is the draw. He handled 22 carries and 10 targets in Week 1, and the 49ers should lean on him again as favorites over the Saints in a game that could play slow.
Chase Brown
No back dominated his team’s backfield more in Week 1. Brown handled every carry for Cincinnati, including the goal line role, and he’s tied to an offense with one of the highest team totals on the slate. The matchup is friendly, too. The Jaguars allowed the second-most FanDuel points to running backs last season (24.1), keeping Brown firmly in the good-chalk mix.
James Cook
Stop me if you have heard this one before: Cook scored a red-zone touchdown in Week 1. Everyone expects touchdown regression after he led the NFL with 16 rushing scores last season, but what if it does not come? He has a touchdown in 13 of his last 16 games (playoffs included). With how potent the Bills offense is and his grip on goal line work, there is no clear reason to project a major drop-off. He also saw five targets last week, which hints at a slightly bigger receiving role. At a sub-$7K salary and single-digit roster projections, there is a lot to like.
Travis Etienne Jr.
Offseason questions about Jacksonville’s backfield rotation were answered quickly. It was the Etienne show in Week 1. He played 61% of the snaps and ripped 143 rushing yards on 16 carries. That performance allowed the Jaguars to move Tank Bigsby, leaving rookies Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen Jr. for spot work. Expect Etienne to handle roughly two-thirds of the touches going forward. He draws a strong game environment against Cincinnati. The Bengals allowed 20.0 FanDuel PPG to running backs last season and 20.6 to Cleveland’s backs last week.
TreVeyon Henderson
If the Patriots want to unlock the offense, they need Henderson on the field more. He played just 25 of 71 snaps in Week 1, and it is hard not to wonder if the 13-point output would have been higher with him featured. Rhamondre Stevenson averaged only 3.0 yards per touch and 2.1 per carry. If Henderson gets to a 50% snap share, watch out. He was targeted on 33% of his routes in Week 1 and flashed big-play juice all summer. At a bargain salary and around 2% projected rostered, this is a smart leverage play on an early breakout.
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase
Chase brings the highest ceiling on the slate. He posted three games of 36-plus FanDuel points last season, each in a shootout against a high-powered offense. Bengals–Jaguars carries the most shootout potential on the main slate with a total near 50, and Jacksonville allowed the third-most FanDuel points to wide receivers last year (30.3). This is an ideal spot to chase his top-end range.
Zay Flowers
Flowers jumped from 858 receiving yards as a rookie to 1,059 in Year 2, and Week 1 hinted at another leap. His 143 yards in a tight loss to Buffalo led the NFL for the week, yet his salary barely moved. At $6,300, he is tough to pass up against a Browns defense that allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points to wide receivers last season.
Keon Coleman
Coleman looks underpriced at $5,300, likely because his Sunday night eruption was not fully baked into salaries. He turned 11 targets into 8 catches, 112 yards, and a touchdown. The Bills draw a Jets defense that just gave up 244 passing yards and four touchdowns in Week 1, setting up Josh Allen and Coleman to keep rolling. It may feel like point-chasing, but Coleman just turned 22 and a genuine second-year leap is in play.
Ricky Pearsall
Over his last three games, Pearsall has averaged 6.0 catches for 106 yards and 0.7 touchdowns. With Brock Purdy out, Mac Jones has shown he can support big receiver weeks, as Brian Thomas’ breakout last year illustrated. With George Kittle sidelined and Jauan Jennings banged up, Pearsall is the clear top target in this passing game and should see enough volume to build on the momentum from late last season, camp, and Week 1.
Jameson Williams
The last time he faced the Bears, Williams posted 150 total yards and a touchdown. He delivered 23 or more FanDuel points in 28% of his starts last season and has true take-it-to-the-house speed. That big-play upside makes him exactly the type of lower-rostered tournament play to prioritize.
Travis Hunter
Hunter played 64% of the snaps and drew eight targets in Week 1. A recent No. 2 overall pick with eight targets in his debut, priced in the mid-5Ks and tied to a possible shootout, would usually be popular. Liam Cohen saying he wants Hunter to grab a few more defensive snaps should keep the field away. With Cincinnati’s corner play looking shaky in Week 1, he is a worthy flier in tournaments.
Kayshon Boutte
Boutte is very affordable and likely to come in under the radar despite a standout Week 1. He has 343 receiving yards over his last four games, an 85.8 per game average. Dolphins cornerbacks Jack Jones and Rasul Douglas struggled in Week 1, each posting coverage grades in the 40s. His teammates are buzzing, with Demario Douglas saying, “Just his mindset, it switched on, and he’s unstoppable. He’s been balling since camp.”
Tight End
Trey McBride
McBride picked up where he left off after last year’s breakout. He opened with six catches for 61 yards on nine targets and no tight end on this slate projects for more volume. The question, as always, is touchdowns. His scoring has lagged behind the targets, but the role is elite. In tournaments, betting on that volume to finally convert in the red zone makes sense.
Travis Kelce
Kelce was relatively quiet in Week 1, though he did haul in a 37-yard touchdown. It is fair to wonder about age-related decline, but this is still a spot to lean on his chemistry with Mahomes. With Rashee Rice suspended and Xavier Worthy trending doubtful, Kelce should be one of the focal points in a high-profile matchup with the Eagles. He remains a strong ceiling play at tight end.
Tyler Warren
Warren opened his rookie year with seven catches for 76 yards on nine targets and even moved the chains on a carry. He already looks like the go-to receiving option in the Colts offense. With Michael Pittman Jr. likely to see plenty of Patrick Surtain II, Warren could take on an even bigger role against the Broncos in Week 2. He is my favorite sub-$6K tight end on the slate.
Hunter Henry
If you are paying up for Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, and Ja’Marr Chase, you will need salary relief. At a sub-$5K price, Henry fits. He drew eight targets for 66 yards in Week 1 and should remain one of Drake Maye’s primary reads against the Dolphins. He is a strong value play that keeps lineup builds flexible.