2025 NFL Draft - First Round Fantasy Winners and Losers
By Sigmund Bloom - Exclusive to Footballguys
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The NFL draft is like an oasis in the middle of the desert. We renew acquaintances with old friends and set our brains abuzz with the heady and heavy ripples of many possible futures collapsing into one reality via names written on cards. The draft is the best part of fantasy football, and some would say the best part of being an NFL fan. How did the first round change the fantasy landscape? Who won and lost on Thursday night?
Fantasy Football Winners
Travis Hunter (WR-JAX), Trevor Lawrence (QB-JAX) - Before the draft, it felt like a near certainty that Hunter was going to the Browns, and if not Cleveland, then he would be headed to the Giants. Neither team is known for its offensive exploits, especially at quarterback. Enter the Jaguars, with a newly minted Sean McVay tree head coach, Liam Coen, a newly minted general manager who came up with the Rams, James Gladstone, and a former #1 overall pick quarterback who has suffered through the turbulence that follows poor management. Coen's offense has the ability to support two WR1s, so even though Hunter won't be a true alpha with Brian Thomas Jr. already holding that job down, he still has a quicker path to the top end of his range of outcomes that he would have had in Cleveland or New York, and a better chance of sustained success. Lawrence can also hit ceiling scenarios for fantasy like Baker Mayfield did under Coen after the duo revived his career in Los Angeles. Don't think that this makes Thomas a "loser", either. Hunter can keep defenses from focusing attention on Thomas, and again, Coen's Bucs offense produced two WR1s. The Jaguars adding an impact offensive player and clarity in the price they were willing to pay should only increase optimism that this offseason of hiring and alignment between front office and coaching staff will be a slump buster and tune up an underachieving offense. Be ready to invest in whatever running back they pick on the second or third day after Coen favorite Bucky Irving's breakout rookie year in 2024.
Ashton Jeanty (RB-LV) - Pete Carroll has his next Marshawn Lynch. It's hard to say that Las Vegas is decisively a better destination for Jeanty's fantasy prospects than playing for Ben Johnson in Chicago, the team most frequently linked to him before the draft, or Jacksonville, the team that was expected to take him by the indication of most draft day mocks, but this feels too good to leave out of a winners/losers piece. Jeanty should be able to get 25+ carries when the game script calls for it, and the additions of Chip Kelly as coordinator and Geno Smith as quarterback should improve the offense right away. It's wheels up for the dynasty 1.01 pick.
Bryce Young (QB-CAR) - Young gets a top wide receiver who fills a hole in the Panthers' offensive blueprint. Tetairoa McMillan gives Young a big target downfield who can be dangerous after the catch and helps Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker get in their more natural roles, as Dave Kluge pointed out on our first-round stream. Young pulled off a stunning midseason career u-turn, and GM Dan Morgan/HC Dave Canales are building around him now. This pick was a small surprise, as mocks had the Panthers taking Georgia EDGE/LB Jalon Walker, who fell to the Falcons at pick #15.
Colston Loveland (TE-CHI), Caleb Williams (QB-CHI) - Loveland lands on a team with a rising star offensive mind at head coach and a talented #1 overall pick at quarterback. We saw what Ben Johnson did with Sam LaPorta from day one in Detroit. Cole Kmet is good enough to make two tight end sets the default for this team, but as Matt Waldman, Alfredo Brown, and Jeff Bell both pointed out on the first-round stream, Loveland can also line up in the slot, replacing Keenan Allen. Loveland is also a good blocking tight end and should elevate both phases of the offense. We should be bullish on the Bears offense and Williams after the offensive line got a lot of attention earlier in the offseason and the addition of a player who upgrades both their blocking and their passing game. Adding Jeanty would have also helped Williams, but perhaps not as directly on the stat sheet as Loveland will.
Baker Mayfield (QB-TB), Bucky Irving (RB-TB) - Mayfield has to be loving Jason Licht for adding another offensive piece. It might seem gratuitous, but it shouldn't have been too big of a surprise, as the idea that the Bucs were open to taking another wide receiver in the first was out there for a while. Mayfield's value should be better able to persist through wide receiver injuries after it got bogged down for a bit last year when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin missed time. Irving will enjoy this pick when he sees Egbuka putting a hat on a hat in the running game and helping him spring even more long runs. Making strengths stronger is the way.
Jordan Love (QB-GB) - Ah, the irony as the Packers' first first-round wide receiver since Javon Walker in 2002 did not come during the Aaron Rodgers era. This might not greatly enhance Love's value, but it was on thin ice after Christian Watson suffered a knee injury that could take two years for him to come back from fully. #23 pick Texas WR Matthew Golden provides the same field-stretching speed that Watson did to keep defenses stretched out and hopefully will keep the pass offense viable after it bogged down after Watson's injury.
Patrick Mahomes II (QB-KC) - The last time we saw Mahomes, he was getting pummeled behind an offensive line that had a hole at guard because it had a hole at left tackle. At #32, after trading down one spot to add pick #164 from Philadelphia, they got Ohio State OT Josh Simmons, who many had as the top tackle in this class before he tore a patellar tendon in his knee last year. The Chiefs may not have Simmons at the beginning of the season, but long-term, this could be a big plus for Mahomes as he continues to express a desire to rekindle downfield passing fireworks in a sometimes morose offense. Both Super Bowl teams wisely used their first-round picks to add players who could have been top 10 picks if they hadn't come into the draft injured. Philadelphia took Alabama LB/EDGE Jihaad Campbell at #31. He may start the season on the PUP list after offseason shoulder surgery.
Fantasy Football Losers
Tyler Warren (TE-IND) - Shane Steichen called his shot. He declared his desire to add a three-down tight end and got one, but we shouldn't expect big fantasy results from this marriage. The Colts have a pair of middling to poor passing quarterbacks, a great running back who makes Warren's short-yardage running prowess less relevant, and a generally poor track record of creating value in young passing game pieces, such as Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr., over the past few years. Warren going off the board as TE2 also might have hurt the perception of his ceiling and dynasty value, although it's probably the correct order.
Jalen McMillan (WR-TB) - McMillan played well as a rookie, and before Chris Godwin was signed, he was potentially on his way to being a WR2 in a top-end pass offense. Godwin came back, and then the team took Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka at #19. McMillan is going to have trouble getting enough consistent targets to matter in redraft leagues without an injury to Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, which happened to each of them last year. Egbuka's presence probably lowers McMillan's long-term ceiling as well. That being said, dynasty players will probably overreact, so he's a buy-low candidate.
Najee Harris (RB-LAC) - Harris had a chance to parlay his one-year contract into a second, more lucrative deal with a big year behind a solid line on a team that likes to run. Now with Omarion Hampton added via the #22 pick, Harris will have much better competition for carries than Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins represent, and teams generally err on the side of getting first-round picks on the field. Harris is going to take a big hit in best-ball drafts and is probably available for a song in dynasty leagues if you've been coveting him from afar.
Jaxson Dart (QB-NYG), Malik Nabers (WR-NYG) - More than one mock had the Giants trading back into the first round for Dart, and they were right. Dart is the kind of quarterback prospect you want to sit for a redshirt year before starting him in the NFL, but the problem is that head coach Brian Daboll, who stumped for Dart, might not be on the staff next year. Dart could be inherited by a regime that didn't pick him, and the Giants appear to be stuck in a stretch of terrible management that creates inherent instability and more floor than ceiling outcomes for players. This is hell compared to the heaven that landing with the Rams would have been. Nabers is going to have trouble climbing to his peak with Dart, who is a poor passer more than 25 yards downfield, per Matt Waldman. Dart's presence probably means that he'll either be the best quarterback Nabers plays with on his rookie deal or that Brian Daboll will be fired in the next year or two, and Nabers will have to endure more instability. The Giants were reportedly willing to give up their 2026 first-round pick and more to the Titans so they could take Cam Ward #1, which would have been much better for Nabers (and possibly the Titans).
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