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Colton Dodgson makes the case for AJ Brownas one of the most underrated players in the game.
And for the Dynasty crowd, Josh Fahlsing goes deep with Tight End Tiers that’ll help you build now and win sooner.
Plus, Bob Harris is back with the News and Notes to keep you sharp.
Let’s get to it.
J
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Draft Capital Matters: Rookie Quarterbacks – Jason Wood breaks down a decade of draft outcomes, making the case that unless rookie QBs are Day 1 picks, they belong on waivers, not your roster.
A.J. Brown: Underrated and Unshakable – Colton Dodgson profiles A.J. Brown as a high-ceiling WR1 whose big-play ability and route dominance outweigh Philadelphia’s run-first tendencies.
Dynasty Buckets, A Different Look at Tiers: Tight Ends – Josh Fahlsing groups dynasty tight ends into flexible buckets — not rankings — giving you a smarter blueprint for navigating depth, upside, and risk at the position.
Among the biggest movers this week: Lamar Jackson surged 6 spots, Jayden Daniels climbed 4, and Bo Nix jumped 8. But which of these rising QBs most deserves the boost?
So today, we ask you Footballguys:
🗳️ POLL: Which rising QB most deserves their recent NFFC ADP surge?
When you vote in the Poll below, you'll see the current standings, and we'll post the final results in the next edition of the Daily Update.
🗳️ POLL: Where Will A.J. Brown Finish In WR Scoring (PPR) This Year?
Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) told reporters on Tuesday, May 20, that he needed 'a good five months of real recovery and rehab' before the shoulder injury that ended his 2024 season felt right.
Our view: The consensus WR1 heading into 2024, Lamb went from averaging an NFL-best 23.8 fantasy points per game in 2023 to 17.6 points per game this past season. That was more due to QB issues than his shoulder. Lamb averaged 18.5 fantasy points in eight games with a healthy Dak Prescott last season. He was the WR4 during that time. In his final seven games, all played without Prescot, Lamb averaged 16.5 points. He dropped to WR11 before missing the final two games due to the shoulder. Lamb is currently the fifth player off the board on Underdog as the WR3.
Tennessee Titans RB Tony Pollard amassed 301 touches in his first season with the team in 2024, but coach Brian Callahan would like to see more of an 'even split' with Pollard, Tyjae Spears and a third back in 2025 in a 'perfect world.'
Our view: As SI.com recently noted, Pollard found success in his first season with the Titans, setting career highs in rushing attempts (260) and yards (1,079) while reaching the 300-touch mark for a second-consecutive season. He ran for over 100 yards three times and hit 100 combined yards in two other matchups. But Pollard also rushed for fewer than 50 yards in six games, and a late-season ankle issue sidelined him Week 17. To top it off, Pollard scored only five touchdowns, which was a factor in his RB22 finish. Assuming we see a more even split, Pollard might struggle to produce at the same level. He's currently being drafted as RB26 in early best-drafts with Spears going as RB42. As for that potential third back? Veteran Julius Chestnut and rookie Kalel Mullings, a sixth-round pick in last month's NFL Draft. The 6-foot, 226-pound Mullings converted from linebacker in 2022. We'll watch for more on this potential split as the season draws nearer. For now, Pollard and Spears are priced right.
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First Round Rookies or Bust
If you're reading this, there's a good chance you love football. And our collective fandom has an insatiable appetite for NFL-related content, which has turned the fantasy football industry into a 12-month, 365-day endeavor. The "offseason" is a misnomer, as we all watch free agency with feverish zeal, and then our attention turns to the NFL draft. We watch excitedly as teams use seven rounds of picks to bolster their rosters and further build training camp depth with undrafted free agent signings.
History tells us that there's no one formula for NFL success. Look no further than Tom Brady, considered by most the greatest of all time, drafted in the sixth round. Or more recently, Brock Purdy, 2022's Mr. Irrelevant, who is now entrenched as the 49ers' starter, armed with a new five-year, $265 million contract.
But here's the reality: Brady and Purdy were eventually successful, but neither was a must-start fantasy starter as a rookie. And the odds of a non-first-round rookie quarterback mattering in redraft leagues, particularly early in the season, is extremely low.
How low, you ask?
106 quarterbacks were drafted from 2015-2024 (10 Seasons)
19 of those quarterbacks (18%) finished in the top 24, which is the threshold for relevance in Superflex leagues
Only 7 (7%) finished as top-12 quarterbacks
Now let's look at those fantasy-relevant quarterbacks with draft capital added to the conversation.
16 of 19 (84%) relevant rookies were first-round picks
6 of 7 (86%) top-12 rookies were first-round picks
Dak Prescott is the only rookie non-first-rounder to finish as a fantasy starter in the last decade. As you may remember, Prescott was forced into the Cowboys' starting lineup when Tony Romo suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason.
For additional context, here are the 10-year hit rates for rookie quarterbacks, by round:
Cleveland Browns RB Quinshon Judkins will 'almost certainly' be the team's 'feature runner' during his rookie season, in the opinion of The Athletic's Zac Jackson, who notes the team is not expected to bring back RB Nick Chubb while RB Jerome Ford took a pay cut to remain. Jackson adds that Judkins could open the season as the main short-yardage back before becoming the primary runner at 'some point' in 2025.
Our view: As expected, Judkins was first in every line as the Browns' rookies went through the practice reps earlier this month, and fourth-round running back Dylan Sampson was close behind. Judkins should dominate the early-down carries for a Browns offense that will look to establish a strong rushing attack as they try to sort out their convoluted future at quarterback. Judkins' initial Footballguys projection calls for an RB25 finish with 210 carries and over 900 yards rushing. Expect him to be a factor at the goal line as well.
Tennessee Titans QBs Cam Ward and Will Levis continue to split reps through the second phase of the team's offseason program.
Our view: The Titans begin Phase 3 of the offseason next week when the offense will compete against the defense in practices for the first time. The team is currently in Phase 2, which wraps up on Thursday. Will the team start ramping up Ward's workload then? We'll see. Either way, it's all but a foregone conclusion that Ward will be the Week 1 starter. The rookie is QB26 on the current Footballguys Projections.
Dallas Cowboys WR George Pickens is 'a guy (who is) maturing,' according to head coach Brian Schottenheimer.
Our view: Pickens has said all the right things since he arrived in Dallas. Most recently, the newcomer told reporters he would accept any role that came his way. He also claims to pay little attention to labeling receivers as Nos. 1a and 1b or No. 2. He realizes, however, that CeeDee Lamb put up more than 100 catches in three straight seasons and has four straight 1,000-yard seasons. Still, Pickens gives the Cowboys the boundary X they've been missing -- and, as Athlon's Landon Holifield suggests, "balances Lamb's versatility inside and out." While Dallas hasn't had a wide receiver other than Lamb reach 700 receiving yards since 2021, that should change this year. Pickens' Footballguys Projection has him at WR41, with 64 catches, 935 yards, and six touchdowns.
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (hamstring) will do most of the first-team work during voluntary organized team activities, head coach Brian Schottenheimer said on Tuesday, May 20.
Our view: A healthy Prescott should be on our fantasy radars heading into the 2024 season. After all, he's finished as a QB1 six times in his career -- every year, he's played a full 16- or 17-game season. He led the NFL with 36 touchdown passes and finished as QB3 as recently as 2023. That's a lot of upside for a quarterback with a flashy new weapon (George Pickens) to go with his even flashier holdover weapon (CeeDee Lamb). It's all even more appealing with Prescott going as QB16 -- up two spots since the NFL Draft and the Pickens trade -- in the 11th round of early best-ball drafts.
Los Angeles Rams RB Kyren Williams recently noted that he is 'feeling good' about his chances of receiving a long-term contract extension, according to Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times. Per Klein, the two sides exchanged proposed contract terms in April, but progress has stalled from that point. 'Whether it happens now or I play out the season, I know it's going to happen eventually,' Williams said.
Our view: We'd all love to see Williams locked into his spot in the Rams offense for the long haul. He broke out over the past two seasons and became one of the best at his position, thanks to the heavy volume that goes with the role. Accounting for nearly 81 percent of the Rams' rushing attempts by running backs last year, Williams ran the ball 316 times for 1,299 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2024. Those numbers were new career highs, surpassing the 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns he compiled in 12 games during the 2023 campaign. He added 66 receptions for 388 yards and six more touchdowns over those two years. As for his immediate future, we know Williams will be a Ram this year, and his RB8 spot on the Footballguys Projections reflects his role and past success.
Cleveland Browns RB Dylan Sampson does not have a clear role heading into 2025, in the opinion of The Athletic's Zac Jackson, who writes that he could 'potentially' win a job as the team's third-down back.
Our view: As noted in the Footballguys Rookie Draft Guide Version 3.0, Sampson is undersized at 5-11 and 201 pounds. Even though he excelled in the open field, he was rarely deployed as a receiver, raising questions about his abilities there. Still, given his limitations, Sampson playing a complementary role rather than the three-down back workload he handled in college makes sense.
Detroit Lions third-round draft choice WR Isaac TeSlaa (Arkansas) signed his four-year rookie contract worth a reported $6.6 million - including a signing bonus of $1.48 million - on Tuesday, May 20.
Our view: TeSlaa brings a unique size/speed combination to Detroit. His physical skills will make him a big-play threat from the get-go. Because of that, the Footballguys Rookie Draft Guide 3.0 contends TeSlaa has an immediate "better in best ball" profile. For long-term investors, TeSlaa is WR16 on the Footballguys 2025 Rookie Rankings.
Cincinnati Bengals first-round draft choice DE Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M) remains sidelined for Phase Two of the team's offseason workouts due to a disagreement over contract language in his rookie deal.
Our view: Kelsey Conway of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported earlier on Tuesday that Stewart wants his contract to look like Cincinnati's last two first-round picks, both of whom were taken after No. 17 overall. As has been the case, Stewart is not planning to practice until the dispute is resolved. While he isn't working on the field, HC Zac Taylor noted that Stewart has "done a great job in the meetings." We'll continue to monitor.
Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson (Achilles) is out of a walking boot and throwing to WRs Jerry Jeudy and David Bell at the team's facility.
Our view: While the world focuses on the four-way quarterback competition in Cleveland, Watson continues to make excellent progress in his comeback bid after suffering a pair of Achilles injuries. News of the second tear was expected to sideline Watson for most or all of the 2025 season, and the Browns responded by trading for a passer (Kenny Pickett), signing another (Joe Flacco), and then drafting two more (Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders). Watson is not part of the derby among Pickett, Gabriel, Flacco, and Sanders. As Profootballrumors.com suggests, Watson will likely begin the season on the Browns' reserve/PUP list, but if he receives clearance during the season, seeing how the team handles it will become a front-burner matter.
Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of the Footballguys family. We don’t take it for granted, and we’re grateful to be on this fantasy journey with you.
We’ll be back tomorrow with more insight, strategy, and everything you need to stay ahead.
Peace, Love and Fantasy Football,
J
Joe Bryant
Guide
Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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