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Howdy Reader,​
Welcome in.
New day, new fire. We’re loading you up with fresh fantasy content that’ll keep you ahead of the pack. Because winning season starts now.
And of course, Cecil Lammey is back with the News and Notes — the intel your league mates wish they had.
​
Let’s roll,
J
PS. If you want to walk into your draft more prepared than anyone else, grab Matt Waldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Matt’s not just a longtime Footballguys Staffer — he’s the best in the business at breaking down offensive rookies. It’s the most comprehensive and insightful guide out there, and a true difference-maker for serious GMs. ​Get it HERE 👉​
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Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio
Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey took fantasy GMs deep into the playoffs last year – earning 82 catches for 1,149 yards and 7 TDs. ​The Rookie Scouting Portfolio​ has been helping fantasy managers go deep with rookies like McConkey since 2006. A 2-in-1 fantasy-focused draft guide and football scouting reference, Matt Waldman's RSP ​covers over 150 rookies at the skill positions​.
- Post-Draft Rankings Cheatsheet w/Tiers
- Post-Draft ADP Analysis w/Sweet Spot Analysis
- Combined 3-Yr Pre-Draft Rankings
- Updated 3-Yr Rankings Throughout the Year
- Positional Skill Analysis
- The Most In-Depth Player Profiles Available
With analysis that has touted early, middle, and late-round gems like ​LaPorta​, ​Patrick Mahomes​, ​Lamar Jackson​, ​Jayden Reed​, ​Nick Chubb​, ​Isiah Pacheco​, ​Justin Jefferson​, ​A.J. Brown​, ​Cooper Kupp​, ​Ja’Marr Chase​, ​Brock Purdy​, and ​Chris Olave​, the RSP has the depth you need. ​Download the 2025 RSP​, and you too can go deep on your league.
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What's New At Footballguys
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📣 Voice Of The Footballguy 🎤
đź“Š POLL RESULTS: In our last issue of the Daily Update, we asked you Footballguys:
Which rookie RB takes control of his backfield first?
And the Footballguy says: I trust TreVeyon Henderson more than the Patriots do.
TODAY: Clayton Gray’s deep dive into how player values are shifting in high-stakes NFFC drafts reveals one clear trend — quarterbacks are climbing.
Among the biggest movers this week: Lamar Jackson surged 6 spots, Jayden Daniels climbed 4, and Bo Nix jumped 8. But which of these rising QBs most deserves the boost?
So today, we ask you Footballguys:
🗳️ POLL: Which rising QB most deserves their recent NFFC ADP surge?
When you vote in the Poll below, you'll see the current standings, and we'll post the final results in the next edition of the Daily Update.
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| 🗳️ POLL: What Year Did You Start Playing Fantasy Football? |
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Free-agent QB Aaron Rodgers (Jets) remains undecided about his playing future as of Thursday, May 22, but the Pittsburgh Steelers remain open to signing him, according to team president Art Rooney II, who repeated the team will wait 'a little while longer.'
Our view: It seems like a matter of 'when' and not 'if' with the Steelers and Rodgers. The team is open to signing him, and the Steelers might be the best (and only?) remaining landing spot for the veteran. Rodgers throwing to DK Metcalf with the support of a strong rushing attack sounds like a recipe for success. We'll continue to wait for something most everyone thinks is going to happen.
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Los Angeles Chargers WR Tre Harris 'fits the mold' of what LA needs from its outside wide receivers, in the opinion of The Athletic's Daniel Popper, who writes that Harris' ability to 'attack defenses outside the numbers' should make opposing secondaries 'divide their attention' instead of focusing solely on stopping WR Ladd McConkey out of the slot.
Our view: Harris can work all three levels of the field. He's got the run-after-the-catch ability to take short passes and turn them into long gains. He's got the fearlessness to work over the middle on intermediate routes. He's even got the late hands/ball-tracking to work as a downfield threat. With a nose for the end zone, Harris will be an interesting no.3 receiver for the Chargers...and a deep flex play for Fantasy GMs in deep leagues.
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Draft Capital Matters: Rookie Wide Receivers
By Jason Wood - Exclusive to Footballguys
The following feature is a free preview of our content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys Premium Subscriptions, and you'll get all of our content. We're so sure you'll love it that we have an industry-leading 30-day MoneyBack Guarantee, so there's zero risk.
It's Hard Out Here for a Rookie
If you're reading this, there's a good chance you love football. And our collective fandom has an insatiable appetite for NFL-related content, which has turned the fantasy football industry into a 12-month, 365-day endeavor. The "offseason" is a misnomer, as we all watch free agency with feverish zeal, and then our attention turns to the NFL draft. We watch excitedly as teams use seven rounds of picks to bolster their rosters and further build training camp depth with undrafted free agent signings.
RELATED: See a look at Quarterback Draft Capital here.
RELATED: See a look at Running Back Draft Capital here.
History tells us there's no one formula for NFL success. Amon-Ra St. Brown was a fourth-round pick and the 17th receiver drafted in 2021 but finished as WR24. Even more impressive was Puka Nacua finishing as WR5 after being the 20th receiver off the board in the fifth round. If you've been playing fantasy football long enough, you probably have a later-round success story or two in your history.
But here's the truth: the industry massively overstates the value of rookie receivers, particularly beyond the first round. For every Nacua or St. Brown, there are dozens of rookies who have little to no impact. Yet, a quick Google search right now will yield a never-ending series of articles touting almost every rookie receiver who "can really surprise" or is "poised to make an immediate impact."
Numbers Don't Lie
- 326 wide receivers were drafted from 2015 to 2024 (10 seasons).
- 49 of those (15%) finished in the Top 48, which is the threshold for full-season fantasy relevance in 12-team leagues that start three receivers plus at least one flex spot.
- 30 rookie receivers (9%) ranked in the Top 36, meaning they performed like full-time starters in most redraft leagues.
- 19 receivers (6%) finished in the Top 24.
- Only 6 (2%) finished as top-12 fantasy receivers.
Now let's look at those fantasy-relevant receivers with draft capital added to the conversation.
- 23 of 50 (46%) were first-round picks.
- 14 (28%) were second-round picks
- 6 (12%) were drafted in the third round.
- 2 (4%) were fourth-rounders.
- 4 (8%) were fifth-round picks.
- 0 (0%) sixth-rounders ranked.
- 0 (0%) seventh-rounders ranked.
- 1 (2%) was an undrafted rookie free agent.
If you've read our companion rookie running back article, you'll note that receiver draft capital is far more predictive. Nearly 50% of all fantasy-relevant rookie receivers over the last decade were drafted in the first round.
For further context, here are the 10-year hit rates for rookie wide receivers, by round:
CONTINUED...
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3. NYJ: Garrett Wilson to be busy
Source: NewYorkJets.com
New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson will be targeted 'as much as possible' next season, according to head coach Aaron Glenn.
Our view: We love that idea for the Jets and for Fantasy GMs out there. We'll see QB Justin Fields target Wilson early and often this year, and the strength of the connection will tell us how many fantasy points can be earned. Wilson is a WR2 with upside, but those numbers could push for WR1 range if he's getting targeted as much as possible.
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4. MIA: Tyreek Hill making a good impression on WRs coach
Source: The Miami Herald - C. Isaiah Smalls II
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill 'has been great,' according to wide receivers coach Robert Prince.'Tyreek's been great. If I text him, he texts me back. If I call him, he calls me back. He says I'm going to be here, he's been here. And it's been great. I've had nothing but positive experiences with Tyreek, and he's a great leader in the room,' Prince recently told the Miami Herald.
Our view: Good news for the Dolphins here. Hill hinted about wanting to be traded away earlier this year, but things seem to have smoothed over. He underwent a second, pre-planned surgery to remove screws placed in his wrist during the first offseason surgery. Now, Hill seems to be doing great on his road to recovery. Hill should push for low-end WR1 numbers in 2025.
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5. GB: MarShawn Lloyd could play significant role in 2025
Source: The Athletic - Matt Schneidman
Green Bay Packers RB MarShawn Lloyd offers 'intriguing speed' and a 'pass-catching element' that 'could do wonders for the Packers' offense,' in the opinion of The Athletic's Matt Schneidman, who notes that Lloyd is working without restrictions this offseason after missing all but one game as a rookie due to injury.
Our view: Lloyd's rookie season was cut short by a hamstring injury and appendicitis in 2024. He's got speed, and he wastes little motion as a runner. If healthy, Lloyd is a player we like (especially in deep dynasty formats) and can win the no.2 job behind Josh Jacobs in 2025.
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Tell Us About Your Home League
At Footballguys, we know that fantasy football is more than just a game — it’s about the stories, rivalries, and traditions that make your league one-of-a-kind.
We’re collecting stories from our community about home leagues across the globe— and we’d love to hear about yours. Whether it's a 20-year rivalry, a ridiculous draft-day ritual, or the punishment no one wants to earn, we want to know what makes your league special.
Your story might even be featured in an upcoming article, newsletter, or podcast.
Thanks for being part of the Footballguys community!
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6. NE: Efton Chism III making strong early impression
Source: PatriotsWire - Jordy McElroy
New England Patriots WR Efton Chism III - whose undrafted free-agent contract contains more guarantees than any of the team's seventh-round draft picks - stood out in a big way during organized team activities on Tuesday, May 20, according to NBC Sports Boston's Phil Perry. One particular stop-and-go move had Perry reminiscing about Julian Edelman.'The guy who stood out to me today was Efton Chism, and it wasn't because he had this amazing connection with Drake Maye. I don't think Drake Maye threw him a pass in competitive periods. He looked really quick to me. This is the undrafted rookie out of Eastern Washington. He decelerates at a very rapid rate. He'll be running a crosser, catch it and stop on a dime and create separation for himself in that kind of way,' Perry told Tom Curran on 'Patriots Talk Podcast'.
Our view: Chism has some Danny Amendola to his game (he's not Cooper Kupp - a fellow Eastern Washington alum). He was impressive at the Shrine Bowl earlier this year, and he can get open in a phone booth. Chism is a player we appreciate in super deep dynasty formats.
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7. CHI: Chicago pleased with Rome Odunze's professionalism
Source: ProFootballTalk.com - Myles Simmons
Chicago Bears WR Rome Odunze is 'very much like a seasoned pro' and someone head coach Ben Johnson has been 'extremely impressed' with so far.'To be a second-year guy, you would expect a little bit more inconsistency. And yet, the way he approaches the meeting room, the walk-throughs, the on-field, the drill work, it's very much like a seasoned pro, some of the best that I've been around. ... I think we're going to see a lot of growth from him, not just in the springtime, but once we get to camp,' Johnson said during his press conference on Wednesday, May 21.
Our view: Good news for the second-year receiver. Odunze had a disappointing rookie season with all the hype that was generated during the draft last year for the first-round receiver. He finished with 54 catches for 734 yards and three touchdowns. Now, with Johnson running the offense, Odunze is seen as a WR3/flex option with plenty of upside.
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8. CIN: Jermaine Burton turning over a new leaf?
Source: Sports Illustrated - Jay Morrison
Cincinnati Bengals WR Jermaine Burton has 'attacked practice the right way (this offseason),' according to head coach Zac Taylor.'All he can handle is the present at this point. I think he's done a good job of that this offseason. He's been in the building. He's in the building outside of work hours, doing his own thing, prehabbing to get his body right. He has attacked practice the right way and that is what you can control right now so I appreciate that much,' Taylor told SI.com's Jay Morrison.
Our view: Burton has a ton of talent, and that's why the Bengals took a chance on him last year coming out of Alabama. As a rookie, Burton barely saw the field and only finished with four catches for 107 yards. If motivated properly, Burton could be a playmaker on one of the league's best offenses. Fantasy GMs in deep dynasty leagues who believe that can happen could pick up Burton on the cheap.
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That’s a wrap for today, folks.
The NBA Playoffs are getting wild, Lilo & Stitch is hitting theaters, and summer’s creeping in. But around here, it’s always football season.
Thanks for riding with us. You stay sharp, we’ll keep the intel flowing.
See you tomorrow with the Update.
Peace, Love and Fantasy Football,
J
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Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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