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Howdy Reader,
Welcome back
Hope the long weekend treated you right. Maybe a little rest, a little family time, and just enough fantasy chatter to keep your edge sharp. We’re recharged and right back in the mix with fresh content to help you pull away from the pack
Today, Clayton Gray breaks down the latest shifts in Best Ball ADP. It's the kind of movement that separates sharp drafters from the herd. And Gary Davenport keeps the Strategy Guide series rolling with a deep dive into Team Defenses. Yes, the underrated pieces that win close weeks and playoff matchups.
And of course, Cecil Lammey has your News and Notes to keep you locked in
Let’s get after it
J
PS. Keep an eye on your inbox today. We’re about to unveil one of the best projects we've undertaken in a long time. We’ve been pouring ourselves into it since February, and I can’t wait to share it with you. As the world moves further and faster into digital technology, this product is a bit of a throwback, with a ton of heart, and I think you're going to love it. Keep an eye out today.
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📺 Trivia Night LIVE - The Muppets!
📅 Tuesday, Aug. 5 at 8:00 PM ET on YouTube
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Join us this Tuesday, Aug. 5 at 8 PM ET for a whimsical edition of TRIVIA NIGHT LIVE - The Muppets! This will be our summer finale episode featuring special guest Jake Ceily of The Athletic!
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What's New At Footballguys
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2025 Fantasy Draft Strategy Guide: Team Defenses
By Gary Davenport - Exclusive to Footballguys
The following feature is a free preview of our content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys Premium Subscriptions, and you'll get all of our content. We're so sure you'll love it that we have an industry-leading 30-day MoneyBack Guarantee, so there's zero risk.
Team Defense Draft Strategies
Door No. 1: Aim High
Some fantasy managers yearn for a "set and forget" fantasy defense. A consistently productive weekly starter they can roll out without having to bother with matchup research and the ups-and-downs that sometimes come with the other draft strategies at the position.
The upside is obvious. Not only should elite defenses (in theory) be among the highest scorers in a given season, but they should be more consistent and less matchup-dependent. Hit, and you have an edge at the position. One that could be a lot wider than two points if a league's scoring actually gives defenses some weight.
Yes, I'm an IDP guy. But if you just gotta play with team defenses, at least make them matter. Juice the scoring.
The problem is that it doesn't work, largely because the first defense drafted is almost never the top one at the end of the season.
I could go farther back. But trust me - it doesn't get better.
Over the past five seasons, two defenses came close to their lofty price tags--the 2022 Buffalo Bills and the 2020 Steelers. Three of the defenses drafted first at the position finished 16th or worse. And two of the actual top defenses at season's end were selected 20th or later at that spot.
The edge fantasy managers hope to gain by taking a high-end defense is more likely than not an illusion. And even 13th-round picks matter--hitting on a sleeper wideout or having a running back's handcuff rostered means a lot more than a big bag of nothing defensively....
CONTINUED...
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Houston Texans WR Christian Kirk looked like a 'safety blanket' for QB C.J. Stroud during minicamp, according to DJ Bien-Aime II of ESPN.com.
Our view: Kirk has been a forgotten man even though the Texans are paying him over $15 million to play for this year. He was going to be released, but the team was willing to give a seventh round pick for him. Second round pick Jayden Higgins has been the talk of OTAs, but Kirk could easily reproduce Stefon Diggs pre-injury numbers last year, but he's a lot cheaper than Diggs was in 2024 drafts. The Texans offense could be improved after they made a lot of changes on the coaching staff in the offense, but they also traded away their best offensive lineman when they sent Laremy Tunsil to Washington in the offseason.
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Chicago Bears WR Rome Odunze's three receiving touchdowns were the fewest in the NFL among players who received at least 13 end zone targets in 2024.
Our view: Odunze, and really the whole Bears pass offense this year, is a riddle for fantasy drafts. He and Caleb Williams had one of the most inefficient connections in the league last year, but offensive whiz Ben Johnson chose this head coaching staff and knew Williams would be his quarterback, so he must like the potential of the 2024 #1 overall pick. Odunze has also gotten a lot of early praise from Johnson, so he could emerge as the #1 in a passing game stocked with weapons. Odunze costs basically the same as he did last year in drafts, which shows optimism, since he and the Bears pass offense was such a disappointment last year.
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3. NYG: Malik Nabers productive in final quarter
Source: ESPN.com
New York Giants WR Malik Nabers caught 39 passes for 472 yards and three touchdowns during the fourth quarter of games during the 2024 season.
Our view: It's not clear if going from Drew Lock to Russell Wilson will be an upgrade for Nabers, but we shouldn't be surprised if Nabers transcends his quarterback play again this year. You'll need to take him in the mid first round if you want him this year.
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4. JAX: Coach excited about Dyami Brown
Source: ESPN.com - Michael DiRocco
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen said he is excited that WR Dyami Brown is on the roster because he can be productive in all types of routes in the passing game. 'You look at somebody that's able to attack the field at all three levels,' Coen said. 'He can go down the field on the post, in the go, in the pylons and be the top shelf, but also you can throw him a screen and he can go and do something with it. I can't coach that. I can't coach you to go and make three people miss after you've caught the ball. ... That's what he can do.'
Our view: This has been a consistent yet somewhat under-the-radar drum beat this offseason. The team is excited about Brown in this dynamic offense, and that means Fantasy GMs can look to Brown as a late-round flier. His 'easy speed' means Brown could take the top off the defense while Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter get plenty of targets. If Brown plays up to his potential, and this offense performs like it could, Brown is a 'what the heck' flex.
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5. CIN: Joe Burrow's right wrist not fully healed
Source: Sports Illustrated - Jay Morrison
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow (wrist) said during the club's mandatory minicamp last month that he hasn't fully recovered from season-ending surgery performed on his right wrist in November 2023. '(In 2024), I still wasn't quite back to throwing it the way that I expect,' he said. 'It's improved this year and it will continue to improve. As long as I keep making those reps, taking the extra time to get that rhythm back, it will continue to improve.'
Our view: Burrow was nearly an elite fantasy quarterback last year, and that was with some offensive line problems and Tee Higgins missing five games. If the line improves, Higgins stays healthy, and Burrow's wrist feels better, he could be even better, but fantasy drafters are onto him, as Burrow is going closer to the elite tier headed by Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson than he has before. He could end up being the #1 fantasy quarterback in 6 point per pass touchdown leagues.
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6. DEN: Marvin Mims gaining confidence
Source: ESPN.com - Jeff Legwold
Denver Broncos WR Marvin Mims has been gaining confidence since he became more involved in the offense last season, according to offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. Mims may receive more playing time on offense this upcoming season and will still be used as a returner.
Our view: Mims came on at the end of the season and could be a breakout player this season. The Broncos wide receiver group is deep and varied, so Mims is most valuable in a best ball league where inconsistency isn't as damaging to your weekly outcome. We'll be listening and watching to see if Mims is taking big steps forward in his third training camp as he competes with Troy Franklin, Devaughn Vele, and third round pick Pat Bryant for targets.
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7. CAR: Hunter Renfrow getting back into playing shape
Source: Panthers.com - Darin Gantt
After taking a year off from football, Carolina Panthers WR Hunter Renfrow said that he is still getting into playing shape but is pleased with how his body has responded to football movements through offseason workouts. Renfrow had battled the autoimmune condition ulcerative colitis, which caused severe bouts of fatigue and led to him dropping down to 150 pounds. 'I struggled my last two (seasons) with the Raiders and last year just struggled with fatigue but this is by far the best I've felt since 2021,' he said.
Our view: The Panthers have an interesting group of receivers at the top of the depth chart in Tetairoa McMillan, Adam Thielen, and Xavier Leggette. Renfrow is working for a spot on the depth chart behind those three. He'll compete against guys like sixth-round pick Jimmy Horn Jr and 2024 UDFA Jalen Coker to establish a pecking order. A Pro Bowler in 2021, Renfrow is just trying to stick in a more-talented-than-some-think room in Carolina.
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8. MIA: Changes Coming if QB Can't Stay Healthy?
Source: Rich Eisen Show - Tom Pelissero
On a recent episode of "The Rich Eisen Show" NFL Network's Tom Pelissero said there will be decisions for everybody to make if Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa can't stay healthy in 2025.
Our view: No surprise here. Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat this year, and there could be a front office/coaching staff reset if the team doesn't make a run to the playoffs. That relies on the health of Tagovailoa as McDaniel's team doesn't perform the same without their starting quarterback. Zach Wilson is there to fill in if/when Tagovailoa is banged up.
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9. NFL: Chase Claypool completely healthy
Source: Instagram - Chase Claypool
Updating a previous report, free-agent WR Chase Claypool (Bills) said in a post on his Instagram account that he is fully healthy after spending the last year rehabbing from a torn ligament and tendon in the second toe on his left foot.
Our view: Claypool is sending the message via social networking that he's ready to play, and we're sure his agent is working the phones behind the scenes. If the veteran receiver is going to find a team, it's likely during training camp or the preseason if/when someone gets hurt. His size/speed combination should get him some interest now that he's healthy, but a move doesn't seem imminent.
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10. JAX: Brian Thomas outstanding in December
Source: ESPN.com
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. caught 38 passes for 490 yards and five touchdowns in December during the 2024 season.
Our view: With Mac Jones at quarterback and a lame duck coaching staff, may we add. Thomas could and should be even better with Trevor Lawrence throwing to him and Liam Coen calling the shots. He's available in the second half of the first round, which might seem like a value in hindsight.
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That’ll do it for today, Friends.
Thanks for reading. And for letting us be a part of your Fantasy Football world. We’re always working to bring you the best, and later today, we get to share something we’ve been pouring our hearts into.
Keep an eye out, as I think you'll want one.
Peace, Love, and Fantasy Football,
J
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Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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