Photo: Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports

In past weeks, we have started off talking about big-picture strategies that are key to winning large FanDuel tournaments. We are going to switch it up this week and instead open by looking at the biggest strategy decision on this week’s slate before breaking things down by position.

What are we doing with the Cowboys-Giants game?

The winning strategy each of the last three weeks ended up being pretty straight forward: roster a bunch of Cowboys and whoever was playing the Cowboys. Let’s review the recent numbers before trying to decide what to do this week.

The Last 3 Weeks

Week 2: Matt Ryan threw for 279 yards and 4 touchdowns. Calvin Ridley had 109 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Dak Prescott threw for 450 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 3 touchdowns. Dalton Schultz was the answer at tight end (9-88-1), while both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper topped 100 receiving yards.

Week 3: The Seahawks stack came out on top. Russell Wilson threw for 315 yards and 5 touchdowns. Tyler Locket had 100 yards and 3 touchdowns while DK Metcalf had 110 yards and a touchdown (plus, he should have had another).

Dak Prescott threw for 472 yards and 3 touchdowns while Michael Gallup (6-138-1) and Cedrick Wilson (5-107-2) had big receiving games.

Week 4: The Browns scored 49 points and you had to have Odell Beckham, who gained 153 yards and scored 3 touchdowns.

On the Cowboys side, Dak Prescott threw for 502 yards and 4 touchdowns. Amari Cooper caught 12 passes for 134 yards and 1 touchdown. CeeDee Lamb had 79 yards and 2 touchdowns. On a down week for tight ends, Dalton Schultz had 62 yards and a touchdown.

Week 5 Tournament Strategy

With that background in mind, the starting point for your Week 5 GPP strategy almost has to start with a decision on how you want to approach this Cowboys-Giants game.

Dak Prescott has averaged 475 passing yards and 3.7 touchdowns over the last three games. His pass catchers are affordable. The top Giants are all super inexpensive against this Dallas defense that has been getting smashed.

The problem is not just that nearly every player from this game is going to be popular, but the fact that game stacks are going to be wildly popular. There is not going to be a combination of the main players from this game that is not also rostered by a sizable chunk of the field. If you are mass multi-entering, you need to to have some game stacks. However, my gut feeling is that these are going to be negative expected value plays given how much of the advice this week seems to be about stacking this game up. The lean is towards sprinkling in some guys from this game in while concentrating on stacks from other games that will carry only a fraction of the popularity.

Position-by-position breakdowns

Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Dallas ($8,700 — 22%)

How do you not just play the quarterback who has averaged 474.7 passing yards and 3.7 total touchdowns per game over his last three games?

Prescott is especially hard to fade when he is only the third-most expensive quarterback on the slate, facing the 24th-ranked DVOA pass defense, and easy to fit into your starting lineup. It does not help matters that the other three quarterbacks who have been putting up silly numbers (Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, and Aaron Rodgers) are all off of the main slate.

We are going to see Prescott on 20-25% of rosters this Sunday. The advice here is to come in under the field on those numbers but there is no denying that Prescott is a strong play. Given his rushing upside, deep corps of pass catchers, and the expected popularity of every possible combination of stacks, this is a rare spot where it may make sense to just play Prescott unstacked.

Deshaun Watson, Houston ($7,900 — 8%)

We have to start with the “narrative street” angle here. Bill O’Brien has been fired and the player reaction seems to be a combination of relief and joy. From the outside, it appears O’Brien was the type of boss who made it miserable to come into work everyday. Reading between the lines on some of the offensive player’s comments this week, it seems like the team is excited to see what this offense can do with some scheme changes and more creative play calling.

I am 100% convinced based on reports, convos with others and his candid press conferences that Randall Cobb thinks Bill O'Brien is the dumbest offensive coach he has ever been around.

— Landry Locker (@LandryLocker) October 8, 2020

The case for Watson this week is not just narrative based, however. Houston has the fourth-highest implied team Toal of the week (30.25), just 1.5 points lower than the mega-popular Cowboys. Jacksonville’s defense ranks dead last in both overall defensive DVOA and pass defense DVOA. The Jaguars have given up big fantasy numbers to each of the four quarterbacks they have faced to date and it has not exactly been a murderer’s row of quarterbacks.

This looks like a “get right” spot for the Texans offense. If the expectations of more creative offensive play calling include more designed runs for Watson, we know he is capable of tournament-winning fantasy production. Will Fuller is the obvious stacking option and the one pass catcher capable of a slate-breaking fantasy game. Randall Cobb may also be worth considering given his low price and strong matchup.

Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City ($9,000 — 12%)

The Chiefs have an implied team total just shy of 35 points. The Raiders defense is without starting cornerback Damon Arnette and have a number of key defenders listed as questionable. Plus, this is a matchup Mahomes has dominated to date in his career. He is averaging 298 passing yards, 3.0 total touchdowns, and 19 rushing yards against the Raiders.

Mahomes is on pace for 4,500+ passing yards, 400+, and 48 total touchdowns but it feels like he is capable of even more. Kansas City has faced a string of top defenses (Patriots, Ravens, and Chargers). This week, Mahomes gets the 30th-ranked Raiders pass defense and it could be his turn to put up video games numbers. The stacking options are numerous and it makes sense to use a double stack given how big of a game we will need from Mahomes to make good on his slate-high salary. Pairing Tyreek Hill with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tavis Kelce, or Sammy Watkins is a high-upside build. Consider running it back with Darren Waller or Hunter Renfrow.

Other Quarterbacks to Consider

Running Back

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Las Vegas ($7,900 — 31%)

Edwards-Helaire looks like he should be “good chalk” this week. The Chiefs are 13-point home favorites with a team total of 34 points. He has shown a strong floor to date, posting at least 70 total yards every game but he has not yet shown a monster ceiling. The question is whether that ceiling exists and we just haven’t seen it or if Edwards-Helaire will remain a solid but unspectacular fantasy performer. The prediction here is that Edwards-Helaire is due for a breakout game sooner than later. He is getting the snaps, targets, and red zone usage in an elite offense and it seems just a matter of time before he has a multi-touchdown game.

Edwards-Helaire has faced three-straight stout rushing defenses. The Raiders defense ranks ranks 30th in DVOA against the run and the last time Edwards-Helaire faced a bad run defense (Houston (29th)), Edwards-Helaire rushed for 138 yards. No team is giving up more FanDuel points to opposing running backs than the Raiders (34.2 per game).

Mike Davis, Carolina ($6,800 — 32%)

Davis is the last man standing in the Panthers backfield. Christian McCaffrey is out at least one more week and backup Reggie Bonnafon was placed on injured reserve this week. Davis was already receiving well over 70% of the snaps with McCaffrey out and could see that number rise slightly this week due to the Bonnafon injury. Davis is getting usage that is not that far off of what we would expect from Christian McCaffrey. In two and a half games without McCaffrey, Davis has caught 21 passes. He has scored a touchdown and logged 21 total touches in each of his two starts. He has also looked good doing it.

With McCaffrey out, the Panthers have won 2 straight gms against Chargers/Cardinals & have found success w backup RB Mike Davis

Davis leads the NFL in missed tkls forced/att (min 25 atts)

He also has been productive through the air:

21 rec in 3 gms
91.3% comp% when tgted

— Mike Tannenbaum (@RealTannenbaum) October 6, 2020

In Week 5, he gets a strong matchup against a Falcons defense that is giving up 24.9 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs. The Falcons have been especially vulnerable to opposing backs through the air. No team has given up more receiving production to running backs (34-257-3).

Other Running Backs to Consider

Wide Receiver

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati ($6,000 — 2%)

Over the last three weeks, Boyd has caught 24 passes for 287 yards and a touchdown. He has become the clear go-to guy for impressive rookie Joe Burrow. The Ravens pass defense is tough but not a matchup we have to avoid (14th in pass defense DVOA). Plus, with slot cornerback Tavon Young lost for the season due to an ACL injury, the team has had to turn to Anthony Averett in that role in recent weeks.

Ravens DC Wink Martindale joked that with Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters as the team's top two cornerbacks, even "Stevie Wonder can see" who teams are going after.

But with Anthony Averett's growth this season, he's not worried at all.

— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) October 8, 2020

With all of the big team totals on the board, Boyd is likely to go way overlooked despite his hot streak, as evidenced by Footballguys’ Devin Knotts projection of a 2.0% rostered percentage. Is Darius Slayton (24% projected at almost the same price) 12 times more likely to have a big game than Boyd? From a game-theory perspective, we have to take advantage of these types of opportunities to gain leverage on the field.

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh ($5,800 — 12%)

The Steelers are 7-point home favorites against the Eagles in a matchup where we should expect Ben Roethlsiberger to have plenty of success. Over the last two weeks, Philadelphia allowed 338 passing yards to San Francisco’s duo of Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard and gave up 312 yards to Joe Burrow. Pittsburgh has had a couple weeks to get healthy after last week’s Titans game ended up being rescheduled for later in the year. No player has benefitted more from the scheduling change than Johnson, who had an extra week to recover after suffering a concussion early in Week 3. Before the injury, Johnson was off to a strong start and looked like he was emerging as one of the league’s better wide receivers. Over the first two weeks, he was targeted a whopping 23 times. He looks like he is the Steelers #1 wide receiver, which makes his pricing this week (WR25 on the main slate and $1,500 cheaper than teammate JuJu Smith-Schuster) standout as a mistake we can take advantage of.

The #Steelers have a budding star, and his name is Diontae Johnson.

Read more 👇https://t.co/GtWovhkh8F pic.twitter.com/ccWXuAmkTZ

— SteelerNation (@SteeIerNation) October 8, 2020

Robby Anderson, Carolina ($6,200 — 18%)

Both Anderson and D.J. Moore are in a great position for Week 5 success. Either is a strong option for your lineups. Based upon reputation, Moore would seem to be the better play at just $400 more but Anderson has been the better performer to date. He has developed into more than just a dangerous deep ball threat. Anderson has also proven adept at taking short passes and turning them into big gains, showing a more well-rounded skill set than he has been credited for having.

Robby Anderson receiving this season (rank among WRs):

🔹 193 yards after catch (2nd)
🔹 97 yards after contact (1st) pic.twitter.com/n3yZCnxSbc

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 8, 2020

The matchup is one of the best on the slate. The Falcons have given up 1,415 yards and 13 touchdowns through the air this season. The Falcons are allowing 32.9 FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers and that number might not fully reflect the reality of how vulnerable this pass defense is. The Packers were without their top two wide receivers last week. Had that not been the case, most of Aaron Rodgers 327 passing yards and 4 touchdowns likely would have been thrown to wide receivers and Atlanta’s numbers would look even worse.

Other Wide Receivers to Consider

Tight End

George Kittle, San Francisco ($7,100 — 21%) The lack of must-play expensive options at running back and wide receiver makes it much easier than normal to pay up for tight end this week. Given how many of the top tight ends on the slate are in good spots, it is not a week to punt the position. At the top of the list is Kittle. He is the fantasy TE7 despite only playing a game and a half. There is not another tight end in the game right now capable of the type of performance Kittle delivered last week (15-183-1 on 15 targets). On paper, the Dolphins have been good against opposing tight ends, which may help Kittle’s popularity from getting too out of control. However, to date, Miami has faced Greg Olsen, James O’Shaugnessy, Dawson Knox, and Ryan Izzo. Defending Kittle is a whole different ball of wax. Kittle is the first player I am locking into my lineup in most tournament entries this week given his pricing, floor, and ceiling.

Darren Waller, Las Vegas ($6,800 — 9%)

In the same game, Travis Kelce is likely to be almost twice as popular but Waller is in the better spot and comes at a $1,000 discount. Kelce has way more competition for targets and has game script worries to boot (Chiefs favored by 13). Waller, on the other hand, has almost no competition for targets and should see a monster number of targets for the third time in four weeks. Part of the reason Waller is not generating more headlines is the fact the Patriots took him away in their Week 3 primetime matchup. However, that is just what Bill Belichick always does when another team has only one elite weapon.

If you take away the Patriots matchup as an obvious outlier, in Waller’s two most recent games he has: 28 targets, 21 receptions, 191 receiving yards and a touchdown. The two most likely outcomes of this Chiefs-Raiders matchup are 1) a blowout where the Raiders are playing in desperation mode the entire second half and 2) a shootout where the Raiders mostly keep pace with Kansas City. Either of those scenarios would be conducive to Waller having a huge game.

Other Tight Ends to Consider

Defense