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Favorite Games
- Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 49.5
- Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders - Over/Under 50
Favorite Additional Spots
- Buccaneers on the road against the Falcons - Implied Team Total 30.5
- Rams at home vs. the Jaguars - Implied Team Total 30.25
- Colts at home vs. the Texans - Implied Team Total 27
- Vikings on the road against the Lions - Implied Team Total 27
- Cardinals on the road against the Bears - Implied Team Total 25.25
- 49ers on the road against the Seahawks - Implied Team Total 24.25
- Eagles on the road against the Jets - Implied Team Total 25.75
- Ravens on the road against the Steelers - Implied Team Total 24.25
- Dolphins at home vs. the Giants - Implied Team Total 22.75
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Matthew Stafford | vs. Jaguars | $7,300 |
2 | Jimmy Garoppolo | at Seahawks | $5,700 |
3 | Derek Carr | vs. Washington | $6,000 |
4 | Taylor Heinicke | at Raiders | $5,600 |
Even in a loss, Matthew Stafford got back on track last week throwing for 302 yards and three touchdowns. Stafford ranks second in pass touchdowns per game (2.5) and third in pass yards per game (301.5). He plays at home against a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and dead last in pass DVOA.
In a shocking twist, Deebo Samuel's absence might actually end up being a slight positive for Jimmy Garoppolo's fantasy value. Samuel only posted two catches for 27 receiving yards on six total targets over the past two games. Over that same stretch, Samuel carried the ball 14 times for 145 rush yards and three rush touchdowns. Samuel has always been a hybrid receiver and rusher but Kyle Shanahan had recently been putting a major emphasis on that rushing component. Without that element this week, Garoppolo possibly takes to the air a bit more against a bad Seahawks defense that ranks 22nd in overall DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA.
I've got to hand it to Derek Carr. He's had a really solid season, especially considering all the distractions the Raiders have had to deal with. Carr leads the league in pass yards per game (310.4) and ranks a respectable tied for 14th in pass touchdowns per game (1.5). I'm highly intrigued by this Washington at Raiders game and Vegas agrees as the 50 point Over/Under is the second-highest of the entire week. Carr gets to play at home and will take aim at a Washington defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA.
Taylor Heinicke will also benefit from playing in this favorable fantasy contest and like Derek Carr, has a similarly favorable matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 24th in overall DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA. Priced at only $5,600 and with solid weapons in Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, and Antonio Gibson to work with, Heinicke will likely do enough to hit that cash line if the rest of your studs deliver.
Running Backs
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Jonathan Taylor | at Texans | $9,200 |
2 | Joe Mixon | vs. Chargers | $8,100 |
3 | Elijah Mitchell | at Seahawks | $6,000 |
4 | Alexander Mattison | at Lions | $7,600 |
5 | Leonard Fournette | at Falcons | $7,300 |
Jonathan Taylor ranks sixth in opportunities per game (21) and his production with one of the best workloads in the league has been incredible. The Colts are ten-point favorites against the Texans and Houston ranks 25th in run DVOA.
Joe Mixon ranks fifth in opportunities per game (21.6), has scored in eight straight games, and will play at home against the Chargers defense ranked dead last in run DVOA.
It's truly remarkable Elijah Mitchell's price tag is only $6,000. Mitchell ranks eighth in opportunities per game (19.8) and just posted 168 total yards and a touchdown last week on 33 opportunities. The 49ers are three-point favorites against the Seahawks and Seattle's defense ranks 22nd in overall DVOA. Plus, the Seahawks' offense has been unable to sustain drives all season. Look for San Francisco to dominate the time of possession.
In two games without Dalvin Cook this year, Alexander Mattison put up 171 total yards on 34 opportunities in Week 3 against the Seahawks and 153 total yards and a touchdown on 32 opportunities in Week 5 against the Lions. Mattison just so happens to be playing Detroit again this week. The Vikings are 7.5 point favorites and the Lions defense ranks 28th in overall DVOA and 21st in run DVOA.
Leonard Fournette ranks 12th in opportunities per game (18.3) and is tied with Austin Ekeler for the third-most receptions (51) at the Running Back position behind only D'Andre Swift and Najee Harris. The Buccaneers are 10.5 point favorites against the Falcons and Atlanta's defense ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 23rd in run DVOA.
Wide Receivers
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Cooper Kupp | vs. Jaguars | $9,000 |
2 | Keenan Allen | at Bengals | $7,500 |
3 | Diontae Johnson | vs. Ravens | $6,800 |
4 | Brandon Aiyuk | at Seahawks | $5,600 |
5 | Jaylen Waddle | vs. Giants | $6,400 |
6 | Darnell Mooney | vs. Cardinals | $5,600 |
7 | Hunter Renfrow | vs. Washington | $5,800 |
Cooper Kupp continues to smash and now gets to play at home against a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and dead last in pass DVOA. Robert Woods is out for the year and Odell Beckham will likely be playing at less than 100% this week due to a hip issue.
Keenan Allen has been "Mr. Consistent" all season and volume has played a big role as he ranks tied for fourth in targets per game (10.5). I'm extremely excited about this Chargers at Bengals game as I expect it to shoot out. If so, Allen should be in for another solid outing.
Diontae Johnson ranks third in targets per game (10.9) yet is priced at only $6,800. The Steelers are 4.5 point underdogs so they'll need Johnson and this is a matchup where he should be able to get things done against a Ravens defense that ranks 24th in pass DVOA.
Deebo Samuel's absence is humongous and provides an enormous upgrade for Brandon Aiyuk in a favorable matchup against a bad Seahawks defense that ranks 22nd in overall DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA. Aiyuk has been fully removed from Kyle Shanahan's doghouse for months now and has posted at least 85 receiving yards in three of his past four games.
Jaylen Waddle ranks tied for 13th in the league in targets per game (8.6) and fifth in receptions (77) as he's benefited mightily from the absence of Will Fuller and DeVante Parker yet has also put his talent on display and should be commended for that. Waddle appears in line for another solid game with Miami projecting to dominate time of possession since Mike Glennon will be the starting Quarterback for the Giants.
Darnell Mooney has seen 24 targets over his past two games and Allen Robinson is Doubtful for Week 13. The Bears are 7.5 point underdogs. Andy Dalton will be throwing a lot and many of those targets will be in the direction of the very talented Mooney.
Henry Ruggs is long gone and Darren Waller will miss Week 13 due to injury. Hunter Renfrow has seen nine targets in three of his past four games. I'm highly intrigued by this Washington at Raiders game and Vegas agrees as the 50 point Over/Under is the second-highest of the entire week. Renfrow should have a solid day against a Washington defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA.
Tight Ends
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Rob Gronkowski | at Falcons | $5,300 |
2 | Mark Andrews | at Steelers | $6,000 |
After playing on 59% of the offensive snaps in his return in Week 11, Rob Gronkowski shot up to 82% of the offensive snaps last week. Gronkowski has seen 17 targets, caught 13 balls, and totaled 194 receiving yards over this two-game stretch. Gronk is fully back and now gets to destroy a Falcons defense that ranks 29th in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA.
Mark Andrews has seen 38 targets over his past four games and has a favorable matchup against a Steelers defense that ranks 27th in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA.
Team Defenses
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Miami Dolphins | vs. Giants | $3,300 |
2 | Philadelphia Eagles | at Jets | $3,600 |
The Dolphins defense is playing great football as of late and get to play at home in this one against Mike Glennon. The Dolphins are six-point home favorites and the Giants have the lowest Implied Team Total (16.75) of the entire week.
Zach Wilson has been atrocious this season, throwing only four touchdowns to ten interceptions in seven games. The Eagles are 6.5 point favorites in this one and the Jets have the sixth-lowest Implied Team Total (19.25) of the week.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Joe Burrow | vs. Chargers | $6,300 |
2 | Justin Herbert | at Bengals | $6,700 |
3 | Tom Brady | at Falcons | $7,200 |
4 | Lamar Jackson | at Steelers | $7,800 |
I'm extremely excited about this Chargers at Bengals game and am shocked Vegas doesn't have it listed with the highest Over/Under of the week. Instead, the 49.5 point Over/Under ranks third behind Buccaneers at Falcons and Washington at Raiders. That perhaps creates a bit of leverage here but we already have a ton of built-in leverage when rostering Joe Burrow since Joe Mixon projects to be one of the highest owned players on the entire slate. The Chargers run defense has been putrid all season and ranks dead last in run DVOA. Mixon is on a heater and has scored in eight straight games. The masses won't be able to resist and I don't blame them. But from a tournament perspective where we're playing for first, the huge payout, and all the bragging rights, we have to remember we have no idea how this game will play out between two very competitive teams. Football is a weird sport and the small sample sizes are a huge reason why. Mixon only has 26 receptions in 11 games, a respectable number but certainly not one to write home about (Samaje Perine, Mixon's backup, has 16 catches). If the Chargers get out to a fast start in this game, something they've proven they can do when they decide to show up, the Bengals offense could fall on Joe Burrow's shoulders in a game script developing into a shoot out. If Burrow delivers and Cincinnati's passing game is what goes off, tournament faders of Mixon and rosterers of Burrow could be in for a nice day.
As you can tell by my Joe Burrow write-up, I'm pumped about this Chargers at Bengals games. Justin Herbert leads a Chargers offense that ranks second in overall DVOA and eighth in pass DVOA and himself ranks fourth in pass yards per game (293.6) and tied for fifth in pass touchdowns per game (2.2). Herbert has been hot and cold this seaosn but this game has shoot out potential written all over it, meaning Herbert would hit an upper percentile outcome against a Bengals defense that ranks 19th in pass DVOA.
Last week was a Leonard Fournette week but Week 13 could easily boomerang back to a Tom Brady week against a Falcons defense that ranks 29th in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. Brady leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks first in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA and himself ranks first in pass touchdowns per game (2.7) and second in pass yards per game (309.4).
The Ravens will go on the road to play the Steelers in Pittsburgh in a late-season divisional clash. This will definitely be a low-scoring game right? Not so fast. The Steelers defense ranks 27th in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA. They simply haven't been any good this year. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson ranks 11th in pass yards per game (261.2) and seventh in the entire league in rush yards per game (70.7). This could be a dual-threat Lamar game and if so, both three-point bonuses could be within reach.
Running Backs
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Antonio Gibson | at Raiders | $5,700 |
2 | James Conner | at Bears | $5,900 |
3 | Austin Ekeler | at Bengals | $8,300 |
4 | Najee Harris | vs. Ravens | $7,700 |
5 | Myles Gaskin | vs. Giants | $5,800 |
Antonio Gibson ranks ninth in opportunities per game (19.4), just saw 36 opportunities last week, and J.D. McKissic has been ruled out for Week 13. Gibson projects for a huge workload in both the rushing and receiving games against a Raiders defense that ranks 24th in overall DVOA and in a contest with a 50 point Over/Under. Priced at only $5,700, Gibson's upside is worth chasing.
Chase Edmonds remains out but since Edmonds' injury is old news and the Cardinals were on bye last week, James Conner isn't the shiny new toy the DFS world wants to play with. That's fine for us rostering Conner in tournaments at depressed ownership percentages. Conner has averaged 22.3 opportunities over his past three games, which would rank fifth in the league over the full season. The Cardinals are 7.5 point favorites against the Bears and Chicago's defense ranks 19th in overall DVOA and 19th in run DVOA.
I professed my love for this Chargers at Bengals game in my Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert write-ups. If this game does shoot out, Ekeler could once again reach his ceiling. Ekeler ranks 12th in opportunities per game (18.3), ranks tied for the third-most receptions (51) at the Running Back position, and second in the entire league in touchdowns (14).
The Steelers just got blown out by the Bengals and Najee Harris only put up 6.7 DraftKings points. I'm not excited to play Harris, especially with all the other exciting Running Back options on this slate. But that likely means most everyone else is thinking similarly. So it's important to point out Harris still ranks second in opportunities per game (23.9) and second in receptions (52) at the Running Back position. Harris can't get game scripted out no matter how this game goes, meaning he has multiple paths to posting 20+ DraftKings points.
Myles Gaskin is averaging 21.8 opportunities over his past four games, which would rank fifth in the league over the full season. And he has 43 receptions on the year which we love to see. Daniel Jones has been ruled out for the Giants, meaning Mike Glennon will start in his place. That's not great timing since Miami's defense is playing lights out right now. The Dolphins are six-point home favorites in this one and New York's defense ranks 31st in run DVOA.
Wide Receivers
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Justin Jefferson | at Lions | $8,200 |
2 | JaMarr Chase | vs. Chargers | $7,000 |
3 | Mike Williams | at Bengals | $5,700 |
4 | Tee Higgins | vs. Chargers | $5,800 |
5 | Chris Godwin | at Falcons | $6,600 |
6 | Mike Evans | at Falcons | $6,700 |
7 | Terry McLaurin | at Raiders | $7,400 |
8 | Michael Pittman | at Texans | $5,700 |
9 | Josh Reynolds | vs. Vikings | $3,400 |
Dalvin Cook is out which could shift the offense a bit to more of a passing attack, Justin Jefferson is one of the best Wide Receivers in the game, Jefferson has seen 30 targets over the past three weeks, and the matchup is fantastic against a Lions defense that ranks 28th in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA.
As I discussed in the Joe Burrow section, moving off of the chalky Joe Mixon and onto the Bengals passing attack is my favorite leverage spot of the week. If this game shoots out and Burrow has a good day, JaMarr Chase is likely to produce. What's great is Chase hasn't posted a ceiling game in over a month so the masses likely won't play him. But we know the kind of receiver Chase is and it's the exact kind that can go nuclear in a fun fantasy shoot-out.
Mike Williams has only posted one solid game since Week 5 and it was not on the main slate. People are tired of trying to predict when Williams will show up. That's our cue since daily fantasy only requires a one-time performance. Williams is the exact kind of boom or bust receiver tournament players should love since 30+ point upside can not only be had but be had at a low ownership percentage as well. My love for this Chargers at Bengals game is well documented and if it does shoot out, Williams is likely to come along for the ride.
One more receiver in this game for good measure. Tee Higgins went off last week catching six of eight targets for 114 yards and a touchdown. That doesn't necessarily mean the tournament leverage window is closed. Higgins averages a respectable 7.6 targets per game, which is a higher average than his teammate, JaMarr Chase.
Last week was a Leonard Fournette week but Week 13 could easily boomerang back to a Tom Brady week against a Falcons defense that ranks 29th in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. If so, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will both be in great position since Antonio Brown is out once again. The Buccaneers offense ranks first in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA and it's not often you can try to leverage the best passing offense in the league in tournaments after a down week.
The 50 point Over/Under in this game is the second-highest of the entire week and Terry McLaurin gets to attack a Raiders defense that ranks 24th in overall DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA. McLaurin provides leverage off of the likely to be chalky Antonio Gibson and offers elite upside on DraftKings since he's the clear-cut #1 option in the passing game for Washington.
Jonathan Taylor is the best fantasy play of the week and the best fantasy player in the game moving forward. He has an incredible matchup on tap so a fun way to gain leverage off of Taylor is pivoting to the Colts' clear #1 WR, Michael Pittman. The Texans appear like a solid pass defense on paper as they rank sixth in pass DVOA but I'm not buying this one. Carson Wentz should be able to get it done when called upon and Pittman offers high target and touchdown upside should the game break his way.
Josh Reynolds was a priority add for the Lions off waivers and if not for Detroit, it has been widely reported the Rams would've claimed their former Wide Receiver as well. Reynolds has talent and just because Tennessee didn't see that doesn't make him a JAG. Instantly, the Lions inserted Reynolds into their starting lineup two weeks ago and he's played on 90% and 88% of their offensive snaps in those two games, respectively. Reynolds has seen eight targets over this two-game span and finished with three catches for 70 yards and a touchdown on Thanksgiving. He's priced at only $3,400.
Tight Ends
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | George Kittle | at Seahawks | $5,900 |
2 | Foster Moreau | vs. Washington | $2,700 |
3 | James OShaughnessy | at Rams | $2,600 |
4 | Logan Thomas | at Raiders | $4,000 |
Deebo Samuel's absence is big news for George Kittle's fantasy outlook since removing Samuel means only Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk remain when looking for reliable receiving weapons in San Francisco's offense. The Seahawks likely don't put up a big enough fight in this one for Kittle to reach his ceiling but if they do, Kittle could be a huge win at a low ownership percentage since the masses will look to pay down at the position.
Darren Waller is out this week, meaning Foster Moreau is the TE1 for the Raiders in a favorable matchup against a Washington defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. Moreau played on 89% of the offensive snaps on Thanksgiving and in his lone start earlier this season with Waller out, Moreau played on 100% of the offensive snaps and caught all six of his targets for 60 yards and a touchdown.
James OShaughnessy began the year as Jacksonville's TE1, playing 80% of the offensive snaps and catching six of eight targets for 48 yards in Week 1. He quickly got hurt, Urban Meyer traded for Dan Arnold, and then it was Arnold who produced for a portion of the season. However, Arnold is now out with injury and Oshaughnessy has stepped right back into that valuable Tight End role in the Jaguars offense. Oshaughnessy played on 81% of the offensive snaps and caught three of five targets for 29 yards last week.
Logan Thomas returned last week to play on 79% of the offensive snaps, catching three of six targets for 31 yards and having a touchdown catch overturned via replay. Thomas will likely return to his near every-down role this week in a favorable fantasy game and matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 24th in overall DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA.
Team Defenses
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Indianapolis Colts | at Texans | $3,700 |
2 | Minnesota Vikings | at Lions | $3,200 |
3 | Arizona Cardinals | at Bears | $3,400 |
The Colts are 10 point favorites and the Texans have the third-lowest Implied Team Total (17.5) of the week.
The Vikings are 7.5 point favorites and the Lions have the seventh-lowest Implied Team Total (19.5) of the week.
The Cardinals defense ranks third in overall DVOA and gets to play against Andy Dalton and a banged-up Bears offense in this one. The Cardinals are 7.5 point favorites and the Bears have the fourth-lowest Implied Team Total (17.75) of the week.
Key Injuries and Suspensions
- Dalvin Cook OUT - Upgrade Alexander Mattison and the Vikings passing attack
- Deebo Samuel OUT - Upgrade Elijah Mitchell, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings
- D'Andre Swift OUT - Upgrade Jamaal Williams
- Darren Waller Doubtful - Upgrade Foster Moreau, Hunter Renfrow, DeSean Jackson, and Bryan Edwards
- Chase Edmonds OUT - Upgrade James Conner
- Jalen Hurts Questionable - Upgrade Miles Sanders
- J.D. McKissic OUT - Upgrade Antonio Gibson
- Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins Game Time Decisions - Upgrade Cardinals Offense if either are active
- Daniel Jones OUT - Upgrade Dolphins D/ST
- Phillip Lindsay Doubtful - Upgrade Myles Gaskin
- Jordan Howard OUT and Boston Scott legitimately Questionable - Upgrade Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell
- Justin Fields OUT - Upgrade Andy Dalton
- Allen Robinson Doubtful - Upgrade Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet
- Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney Doubtful - Upgrade Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, and Evan Engram
- Antonio Brown OUT - Upgrade Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski
- Calvin Ridley OUT - Upgrade Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Russell Gage
- Eric Ebron OUT - Upgrade Pat Freiermuth
- Michael Carter OUT - Upgrade Ty Johnson, Tevin Coleman, and Austin Walter
- Jamal Agnew and Dan Arnold OUT - Upgrade Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, Laquon Treadwell, and James O'Shaughnesy
- Will Fuller OUT and DeVante Parker's status up in the air - Upgrade Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, and Albert Wilson
- Corey Davis Game Time Decision and Keelan Cole OUT - Upgrade Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder, and Denzel Mims
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase, and Mike Williams
- Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Tee Higgins
- Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski
- Taylor Heinicke, Terry McLaurin, and Hunter Renfrow
- Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, and Antonio Gibson
Flag Plant Plays
- Joe Burrow
- Antonio Gibson
- Elijah Mitchell
- JaMarr Chase
- Mike Williams
- Justin Jefferson
- James OShaughnessy