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All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.
KNOW YOUR ENEMIES
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
The Week 1 DraftKings $5M Fantasy Football Millionaire saw nine quarterbacks check-in with roster percentages between 6-10%. With six games on this week’s main slate implied to reach or exceed a 50-point total, we should expect a similarly flat roster distribution this week. Kyler Murray ($8,200), Russell Wilson ($7,500), Josh Allen ($7,200), Tom Brady ($6,900), Dak Prescott ($6,800), and Justin Herbert ($6,700) will cannibalize each other’s popularity in the top pricing tier. It’s a near-lock one of these quarterbacks (most likely Prescott or Brady) appears in the most common roster construction.
Flip the Build: Matthew Stafford ($6,400), along with the rest of the Rams skill players appear underpriced on the road in Indianapolis. Assuming the crowd gravitates towards Stafford stacks by the weekend, the best price pivot off the top quarterbacks could be Jalen Hurts ($6,400). We’ll see how much of his Week 1 passing prowess (264-3-0, 77% completions) can be attributed to the Falcons defense, but Hurts’ rushing ability puts him in the overall QB1 regardless of matchup. Baker Mayfield ($6,000) and Ben Roethlisberger ($5,900) put the crowd to sleep most weeks, but both are easily stackable heavy home favorites with high implied team totals.
Najee Harris ($6,300) put up only 5.9 DraftKings points in his NFL debut, but will probably end up the chalkiest player on the slate in his second career game. The crowd will chase Harris’ matchup, workload, and modest price, which fits in nicely alongside expensive quarterbacks and wide receivers. Alvin Kamara ($8,800) and Austin Ekeler ($7,300) are the most likely luxury purchases at RB1, but the desire to stack expensive quarterbacks with their top receivers and run-back options should keep high-end RB1s in relatively modest demand. RB2s alongside Harris in common builds will most often be mid-priced options, such as Chris Carson ($6,100), Darrell Henderson ($5,700), and Damien Harris ($5,400).
Flip the Build: It could be a rare week in which Christian McCaffrey comes in at 10% rostered or less. His $9,900 salary is one way to start your builds differently while maintaining upside. Ezekiel Elliott ($6,200) is a near-perfect price pivot off Harris at RB1. If Elliott has a big game at the expense of Prescott, Amari Cooper, and/or CeeDee Lamb, you’ll gain massive leverage on your opponents. And keep your eye on the news out of San Francisco. If we don’t have much clarity on their backfield hierarchy by the weekend, it’s better to be a week early than a week late on Elijah Mitchell ($5,000).
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