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The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Here are the players who received the most votes:
And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City
Sigmund Bloom: There's no way that losing Tyreek Hill can make the Chiefs offense better, and it might make it a lot worse. The Chiefs struggled with Hill in the lineup last year for a month before "taking what the defense gave them" and finding their form at times in the playoffs. Without Hill, they will need to reinvent themselves, and there's no guarantee that Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Mecole Hardman will force defenses to give as much they gave with Hill on the field last year. Mahomes isn't worth a premium pick with that uncertainty attached to his outlook.
Alex Caruso: Since finishing as the QB1 in 2018, Mahomes has finished as the QB4, QB3, and QB5 in PPG. Now he has lost one of the most dynamic weapons in the NFL (Tyreek Hill) and he has been replaced by a second-round pick (Skyy Moore), a field stretcher (Marquez Valdes-Scantling), and a wide receiver whose efficiency has declined in four straight seasons (JuJu Smith-Schuster). The Chiefs boast a great offensive line but no one to trust in the run game to keep defenses honest. This is not going to be the same dynamic offense of years past, and frankly, Mahomes may not put up the fantasy numbers that we are used to.
Drew Davenport: It's not that Mahomes is a bad pick now that Tyreek Hill is gone, it's just that his QB2 draft slot means he's got to shake whatever was limiting the offense over the latter part of 2021. Through six weeks he averaged three touchdowns per game and was over 270 yards passing in five of those six games. The storyline after that point was well circulated in fantasy and NFL circles. The narrative was that opponents had figured out how to limit the formerly unstoppable Kansas City offense. That narrative may have been closer to the truth than most thought at the time. In the final 10 weeks of the fantasy season (Weeks 7-17), Mahomes hit 270 yards passing only two times, and he had two or fewer touchdowns in seven of ten games. He still managed to have two huge games during that stretch and was far from a poor producer, but it seems more reasonable to expect Mahomes to take a small step back without his star wide receiver instead of seeing a resurgence to push him up to QB2. Mahomes should still produce 30 touchdowns, but that won't justify the current price tag.
Ryan Weisse: Like Drew, I don't think losing Tyreek Hill destroys Patrick Mahomes II as a fantasy quarterback, but QB2 is a stretch. Drew did a great job explaining, so I'll just add this: Over the last three seasons, the dropoff from QB2 to QB5 was 1-2 fantasy points. From QB2 to QB10 were 2-4 points lost. So while the loss isn't terrible, it illustrates two things. First, why pay a premium for Mahomes when a 4-point fantasy drop is firmly on the table? And second, don't pay a draft premium for any quarterback when the gap that separates them is so small.
Jeff Bell: Staff members have already addressed all the environmental concerns about Patrick Mahomes II. The departure of Tyreek Hill and the ceilings of rushing quarterbacks are legitimate. The primary concern is the league seems to have caught up with him for the first time in his career. His last game was a complete breakdown against the Bengals; a first-half QBR of 98 dropped to a second-half 1.4. Mahomes set career highs in interceptions (13) and sacks (28), and despite seeing fewer blitzes, his pocket time of 2.3 was a career-low. The Chiefs need to show a counterpunch to combat coverage shifts that see teams dropping more defenders and Mahomes forcing throws, as his 18.8 bad throw percentage from ProFootballReference was a career-high. AFC West competition could put him into shootouts, but ignoring concerns and placing him QB2 off a QB5 finish is aggressive.
Player Receiving 3 Votes
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis
Anthony Amico: A bit of low-hanging fruit here since he is QB20 on our ADP list, but Ryan is probably not even draftable in single-quarterback formats right now. He has shown a decline in skills -- posting the lowest yards per attempt in 2021 since 2013 -- and offers no rushing upside. Now he goes to a Colts team that loves to pound the rock and lacks meaningful weapons in the offense behind Michael Pittman. Ryan seems like a poor bet for both opportunity and efficiency in 2022.
Jeff Bell: There are tiers in the quarterback rankings: dual-threat players who could finish as the overall QB1 ending at Jalen Hurts, followed by veterans sure to see passing value to close out the top 12 ending with Aaron Rodgers, and lastly, a group of uncertain players with high ceilings ending at Deshaun Watson. Ryan’s ranking is fair because you are likely to see a cluster of quarterbacks scoring similarly, and he could lead that group. But his inclusion as an overvalued player is a game theory concern. Ryan is a competent veteran, but he led the NFL in completions in 2019 and 2020 and was barely a fringe QB1. He will be tasked with a ball-control offense in Indianapolis that leans on Jonathan Taylor. Quarterbacks at this level should not be rostered in shallow bench leagues as their production is easily replicated.
Kevin Coleman: The concern with Matt Ryan’s fantasy outlook in 2022 lies more within the Colts' offensive scheme than the player. Last year, the Colts were 27th in team passing attempts, and the team had effectively transitioned to a run-heavy system behind All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor. Ryan scored a career-low 13.8 FPTS/G in 2021 and has taken a beating behind poor offensive lines the past three seasons in Atlanta. Ryan also has no rushing upside. Based on his current ADP and his limited upside, there are better options to draft in your redraft leagues.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Josh Allen, Buffalo
Gary Davenport: This isn't an indictment of Allen as a player. Or even really about Allen at all. It's about using an early pick on a quarterback—any quarterback. As more young signal-callers come into their own, the position is deeper than ever. And yet fantasy managers continue wasting valuable draft capital chasing the quarterback. The reality is that unless you hit on mid-round values at running back or wide receiver, the edge gained by rostering the top quarterback isn't worth the hole dug in the backfield or at wide receiver. Never mind that the last time to top QB in terms of ADP and the top QB in terms of fantasy points were the same guy was well over a decade ago. Superflex and two-QB formats are (of course) another story, but in standard fantasy formats, the keyword under center is patience.
Jason Wood: I have Allen rated quite high, but this is about challenging the idea of his status as the near-consensus No. 1 quarterback. Few quarterbacks in league history have finished QB1 for three consecutive seasons. Brian Daboll and Allen were a match made in heaven and to think Daboll’s departure is meaningless is a risky proposition. Even if you don’t think Daboll is irreplaceable, we have to consider Allen is likely to ratchet back his rushing attempts. He’s very lucky a QB1, but taking him first at the position is risky and comes with opportunity cost elsewhere.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay
Alex Caruso: When Tom Brady steps on the field in Week 1 of this season, he will be the first 45-year-old quarterback to start an NFL game. Brady also just lost future Hall of Fame tight end Rob Gronkowski, perennial wide receiver stud Antonio Brown, along with two of his starting five offensive linemen from last year in Alex Cappa (Cincinnati) and Ali Marpet (retirement) not to mention that his head coach Bruce Arians is al gone. Brady will also be without WR Chris Godwin for at least the first month of the season. This will not help his fantasy point totals as he also provides almost zero value on the ground with his rushing. Brady will still be a fantastic real-life quarterback, but the cards are stacked against him to put up big fantasy numbers once again.
Jordan McNamara: Off the 2021 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tom Brady lost Rob Gronkowski to retirement and Antonio Brown to a cut while Chris Godwin will be returning from a torn ACL (we project him to miss three games in 2022). Brady also lost two-fifths of his offensive line in Ali Marpet (retirement) and Alex Cappa (Cincinnati) along with his head coach, Bruce Arians. The biggest beneficiary of Tom Brady's return in 2022 is Mike Evans, but there are quarterbacks with better combinations of ceiling and floor than Brady.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati
Jordan McNamara: Joe Burrow was QB15 in passing attempts in 2021 (520) but was able to hold a top 12 seasonal finish based on a high touchdown rate in 2021 (6.5%). Burrow led the league in touchdowns longer than 40 (ten touchdowns) and 50 yards (eight touchdowns) while his 34 touchdowns were eight over expectation. Burrow lived on the high side of variance in 2021 and is valued too highly in 2022.
Ryan Weisse: First and foremost, I love Burrow and the Bengals offense this year, but one major issue is his ADP. At QB7, he is going ahead of Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady. Burrow was the QB8 last year, behind all of them. Yes, Burrow had some monster games towards the end of the season last year. But, when you look at the season in its totality, he was hit-or-miss, with more games below 20 fantasy points than games where he scored 30 or more. Again, this is more about draft cost. I like nine quarterbacks more than or roughly the same as Burrow, but three of which will cost less in a fantasy draft.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
Chad Parsons: After a flourishing breakout season in 2019, Jackson has swooned to QB11 and QB12 adjusted points-per-game finishes the past two years. While one of the elite rushing options at the position, Jackson loses his WR1 from 2021 in Marquise Brown and the assumption is Rashod Bateman, last year's first-round selection, will seamlessly bridge the gap among the wide receiver corps. Jackson has faded in touchdown rate and zoomed up in interception rate for two years running and the weapons are worse than a year ago. All of this assumes Jackson largely stays healthy with his brash running back-like style on the ground.
Jason Wood: Jackson has finished 10th and 15th in the last two seasons despite being treated as an elite option among many fantasy analysts. It’s time to consider the combination of wear and tear from his playing style and defensive adjustments having a long-term impact on Jackson’s ceiling. Losing his favorite receiver to the Cardinals and the lack of improvement as a passer under Greg Roman put the finishing touches on why drafting Jackson that high is a fool’s errand.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville
Drew Davenport: It's hard to argue that the QB19 is a bad draft price because Lawrence can be had in the 13th round, but he was absolutely dreadful in 2021. He threw three touchdowns in his NFL debut and then only managed to throw seven more the rest of the season. By any metric Lawrence was bad. His PFF passer grade, his average net yards per attempt, his big-time throw rate, and virtually any other advanced metric says that Lawrence struggled mightily in his rookie campaign. The Urban Meyer excuse only goes so far, and the additions of Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, while important, aren't likely to transform Lawrence into a fantasy powerhouse. Instead, why not take a shot on one of the half-dozen guys being drafted behind him that have demonstrated that they have a fantasy ceiling?
Christian Williams: Trevor Lawrence's play in 2021 was oft-concerning, and his 15.2 FPTS/G ranked worst among quarterbacks with at least 14 games started. The heightened expectations placed on a player who had real flaws mixed with the awful situation with Urban Meyer at head coach virtually sealed that outcome prior to the season. 2022 offers more hope. The offense added competent pass catchers in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. Lawrence is getting his running mate from college (Travis Etienne) in the backfield once again. Doug Pederson is running the show. And yet, Trevor Lawrence would need to make massive leaps forward to justify his ADP of QB19. Year 3 Trevor Lawrence at QB19 sounds great, but there are better options than Year 2 Trevor Lawrence for fantasy.
Kyler Murray, Arizona
Gary Davenport: Murray is a talented young quarterback whose rushing ability offers additional appeal to fantasy managers. But he's also being drafted much closer to his fantasy ceiling than his floor. Over the first half of the 2021 season, Murray lived up to this rather lofty price tag, albeit narrowly. But from Week 9 on last season, Murray barely managed to crack the top-20 fantasy quarterbacks—and the same managers who cheered him in October cursed him in December. Yes, the Cardinals traded for Marquise Brown to bolster the aerial attack and help offset DeAndre Hopkins' six-game suspension, but Murray's potential issues go beyond not having D-Hop to start the year.
Chad Parsons: Murray has been an average-at-best NFL passer to date in his career. Putting an early-mid QB1 price point on Murray mandates elite rushing numbers to offer any upside compared to the downside scenarios. Add DeAndre Hopkins projected out with a suspension and Christian Kirk is gone and Murray is dealing with a depleted deck through the air compared to a year ago.
Dak Prescott, Dallas
Sigmund Bloom: After a massive opening stretch of games abruptly ended by a dislocated ankle, Prescott was a more pedestrian fantasy quarterback last year despite having a terrific supporting cast. The 2021 Cowboys looked more like the painfully conservative Mike McCarthy Packers and Prescott's fantasy numbers suffered from the development. A competent defense kept the team in lower-scoring games that didn't force McCarthy, Kellen Moore, or Prescott out of their comfort zones. Now, Amari Cooper and La'el Collins are gone and Michael Gallup won't be healthy to start the season. Prescott's numbers last year don't justify his ADP, and his fantasy outlook is only getting dimmer.
Sam Wagman: Prescott can definitely match his ADP in 2022, but I do think there’s a better chance he doesn’t. He lost his most tenured WR in Amari Cooper, late-season standout Cedrick Wilson left in free agency, and Ezekiel Elliott is presumably back to full health from his PCL injury last season. Whether Prescott’s rushing output will increase enough to make up for a rookie starting on the outside across from Ceedee Lamb and these issues remains to be seen. He should not be going ahead of mainstays like Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford though.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Justin Fields, Chicago
Andy Hicks: For young quarterbacks to succeed, they need excellent coaching, strong targets, and development of their skills. Chicago decided to change head coaches and let Allan Robinson go. Justin Fields had a troublesome rookie season with only seven touchdowns and ten interceptions. His pass completion percentage was lower than that of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Drew Lock. At the receiver, the Bears replaced Robinson with the fifth-string receiver from Kansas City and a rookie that was surprisingly selected several rounds ahead of expectations in Velus Jones. Justin Fields does have elite rushing potential, but learning a second offense in two years is usually not the recipe for young quarterbacks to thrive.
Trey Lance, San Francisco
Matt Waldman: Lance has talent, but Jimmy Garoppolo remains a 49er. Garoppolo's presence matters because the locker room believes in the veteran, the 49ers see themselves as legitimate contenders, and Kyle Shanahan fits the "scheme over player to a fault" characterization for coaches who specialize in West Coast Offenses. The longer Garoppolo remains on the team and/or the staff doesn't proclaim Lance the starter, the more likely Garoppolo begins the season as the starter. Considering the talent of the team, Garoppolo could remain the starter all year. Lance has the skills to deliver QB1 production during the second half of the season, but banking on that at his current value is a bigger gamble than necessary.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
Kevin Coleman: The biggest question mark heading into 2022 for Aaron Rodgers is how much of an impact DaVante Adams' departure will have on his fantasy ceiling. Rodgers has leaned on Adams throughout his career, and from 2019-2021 Adams’ 27.6% target share was the second-highest in the league. He’ll no longer have his safety blanket and touchdown-scoring receiver, which limits his upside on the field. Once you take that into account and the fact they did very little to upgrade their wide receiver position this off-season, his 2022 outlook gets even murkier. Fantasy managers should also expect the Packers to rely on their rushing attack more this season with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. With the lack of rushing upside, Rodgers is being overdrafted in fantasy leagues.
Russell Wilson, Denver
Andy Hicks: After 10 years in Seattle, the last with a seeming desire to move on, Russell Wilson got his wish by being traded to Denver. His career with the Seahawks is hall-of-fame worthy, but that means nothing for his Broncos career. One of his fantasy strengths was in noticeable decline last year with his lowest ever rushing numbers. At his age, you would not expect much from this crucial area for fantasy success. That leaves him as almost a pure passer, almost anachronistic in today's NFL. With Denver likely to lean on Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, Wilson will have time to learn a new offense and develop rapport with a good group of receivers. Wilson could push QB1 numbers, but I would be careful expecting this automatically.
