Dynasty Rankings Movement, Week 5

Week 4 is complete, and dynasty movement continues. Injuries have created new opportunities or raised long-term questions about players. The star-studded 2021 quarterback class continues its journey to establish a foothold in the league. Elsewhere young players are solidifying their opportunity for playing time and fantasy production. Weekly the Footballguys staff will share their thoughts on the dynasty ranking movement and answer a critical question you may face.

Quarterbacks

Kevin Coleman

Jared Goff - Detroit

Goff’s fantasy value was hanging on by a thread before the start of the 2022 season, but he sits as QB5 in the overall rankings through five weeks. Goff is averaging just over twenty-two points per game, and based on the quarterback play around the NFL looks like he could be an option for teams moving forward if the Lions decided to move on from him after the season. The Lions have a tough stretch of upcoming games, but Goff has proven he can still play quarterback in the league and be fantasy relevant.

Justin Fields - Chicago

As much as I believe in Fields' talent, there is something wrong with the Chicago offense right now. It's not all on him, but for the first time this season, Fields completed more than ten passes. There were flashes of his arm strength with deep attempts to Darnell Mooney, and he has rushing upside with his legs rushing for fifty-two yards. The talent could be there, but until Bears management proves they believe in fields and provides him with the weapons to succeed on the football field, dynasty managers need to be cautious.

Christian Williams

Justin Fields - Chicago

Effective dynasty managers practice patience through difficult times, but Chicago's inability to surround their sophomore quarterback with NFL talent has made retaining optimism for Justin Fields a challenge. The flashes of brilliance are still there, but a lack of trust in his protection and pass catchers has made Fields' start to the 2022 campaign as bad as anyone could have imagined. Fields still possesses upside, often showing his rushing ability as he scrambles out of broken pockets. Still, Chicago must hope Fields survives the 2022 season unscathed and not mentally broken. Confidence is critical, and Fields lacks his usual amount through four weeks this season. For his long-term dynasty value, that could prove detrimental.

Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay

Father Time is undefeated, and while Tom Brady has successfully fended him off well into his forties, Aaron Rodgers may not be as lucky. Rodgers has looked pedestrian in 2022, turning in exclusively disappointing weeks through the first four weeks. Rodgers' 14.1 fantasy points per game rank 22nd behind players like Joe Flacco, Jacoby Brissett, and Marcus Mariota. Poor offensive line play and the absence of Davante Adams as a reliable pass catcher have contributed to the early-season struggles, but Rodgers has also earned blame for himself. Errant throws and questionable decisions, two things Rodgers has mostly avoided over his storied career, have been prevalent. Rodgers' age, combined with his poor play, leaves no choice but to move Rodgers down in dynasty rankings.

Jordan McNamara

Justin Fields, Chicago

We can have a really hard time processing NFL coaching decisions. If each game is about four hours, a 17-game season reveals 0.8% of a player's life. We lack the information a coach has about the development of a player, and we are left to infer a lot of information. What is the NFL does not have the view of Justin Fields the dynasty community does. This is clear from the pre-draft process is the NFL, including a continuous drip of information before the draft and Fields's slip to 11 overall. Likewise, two different coaches have shown no trust in Fields during his time in Chicago. It was easy to dismiss Matt Nagy as the cause of Fields's rookie season struggles, but every signal points to the fact that Fields is not the player the dynasty community hoped for.

Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City

It turns out the demise of Patrick Mahomes II was greatly exaggerated. Many thought the loss of Tyreek Hill would cause Mahomes to struggle in 2022. He is currently sitting at QB4 and is tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns (11). Elite quarterbacks stay elite for a long time, and Mahomes is another example of that.

Jeff Bell

Zach Wilson, New York Jets

Wilson's return to the starting role in Week 4 started disastrously, beginning 8 for 24. But into the fourth quarter, he found his groove, going 10 for 12 for 128 yards, throwing one touchdown, and leading a game-winning drive on the other. He struggled his rookie season, which led many to write him off entering year two, but the Jets receiving talent, led by Garrett Wilson, has stood out. Also, Breece Hall has started to seize control and show the ability that made him the consensus top rookie back, and free-agent tight end Tyler Conklin has been a revelation. Given the injuries to Trey Lance and Mac Jones and the struggles of Justin Fields, Wilson looks capable of delivering on his placement as the second quarterback picked in 2021. Suppose he continues his play from the fourth quarter, and the Jets show the willingness that led to Joe Flacco averaging 51 passes per game. In that case, Wilson could catapult past a slew of veteran quarterback options nearing retirement.

Davis Mills, Houston

Mills flashed to end his rookie season and created buzz coming into year two as a young player with a firm grasp on the starting role. But his game is unlikely to ever translate into meaningful fantasy impact, and he currently sits at 12.58 points per game, at the bottom of full-time starting quarterbacks. But more concerning for his dynasty status is the team's 0-3-1 record and positioning for the top pick in the 2023 draft. In reality, Mills is cast as a backup-level player and should be viewed similarly to Gardner Minshew with the 2020 Jaguars. He created Superflex value due to proximity to a starting job that Trevor Lawrence replaced. The 2023 draft has two quarterbacks at the top in C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young and assuming the Texans lock up position to grab one, Mills is not the type of player that will force the team to pass on an upgrade. Get out while you can.

Running Backs

Christian Williams

Nick Chubb - Cleveland

The delineation between the best running back in the NFL and the best fantasy running back is always unclear, but Nick Chubb is solving that problem through the first four weeks of 2022. Chubb is operating as the top fantasy back despite being on a Jacoby Brissett-led offense, scoring more than a touchdown per game and remaining incredibly efficient on the ground. The Browns have consistently managed Chubb's workload in hopes of extending his career, and this season has shown dynasty managers that running backs can last past 26 years of age. Chubb's value will only increase with the introduction of Deshaun Watson, giving him a massive touchdown upside and appeal as a top-12 dynasty running back.

Dameon Pierce - Houston

Despite being a day-three draft selection, Dameon Pierce looks like he'll retain value past the 2022 season. Averaging more than 14 points per game and a yards-per-carry mark above 5.0, Pierce is succeeding behind a mediocre offensive line in Houston. Through four weeks, he has been the heartbeat of the offense, with his physical running style encapsulating everything the Texans aspire to be. The Texans may still add a second, more reliable running back into the mix following this season, but similar to James Robinson and Chris Carson, the skill is immediately apparent, and dynasty managers should view Pierce as a top-30 running back moving forward.

Cam Akers - La Rams

Through four weeks in 2022, Cam Akers is being out-snapped by Darrell Henderson 158-91. Despite running efficiently against the Cardinals, Akers returned to inefficient running, lacking vision, patience, and contact balance and averaging less than two yards per carry in Week 4 against San Francisco. While many dynasty managers hoped Akers would become the second coming of Todd Gurley, his value consistently slides. While returning from significant injuries is difficult, it's fair to wonder if the best version of Akers is in the past. Akers should be teetering on the edge of the Top 50 for the running back position, but his consensus value currently sits inside the Top 30.

Jordan McNamara

Josh Jacobs - Las Vegas

Josh Jacobs has been undervalued since he entered the league, but he currently sits at RB7 and is on pace for his fourth straight top-24 seasonal finish to start his career. The first-round running backs that have accomplished this since 2008 include only Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ronnie Brown, and LaDanian Tomlinson. On average, these players produced another 2.5 top-24 seasonal finishes after year four. Over the course of their career, they average 5.2 top-12 seasonal finishes. Historically, Jacobs is in the middle of his prime, and seeing him perform and get praise from his new coaching staff is an encouraging sign.

Javonte Williams - Denver

The injury to Javonte Williams is not a good sign. He will see a dip in value before rebounding in the offseason. The key is not to take a loss in a top-30 asset he was in Superflex formats entering the season. You would rather add to Williams to get a high-end talent to just take a future first-round pick.

Chase Edmonds - Miami

Chase Edmonds went to Miami with the hope of a starting job in a Shanahan-style offense. Instead, after four weeks, he has lost his job to Raheem Mostert. Edmonds is nothing better than an injury-away player at present.

Jeff Bell

Javonte Williams - Denver

First, the ACL injury that will cost Williams the rest of his season is the major flag in this value. But before the injury, there are long-term concerns, primarily in usage. The Broncos split backfield usage three ways between Williams, Melvin Gordon, and Mike Boone, with Williams limited to 55% of snaps. In the long term, the hope was Gordon aging out and freeing up Williams for bellcow usage, but Boone's entrance into the rotation was unexpected and colored Williams long term. Williams' rookie contract will be half over before we see him on the field again. If the recovery of J.K. Dobbins is any indication, we could be into the 2023 season before he is fully effective. The 2023 draft class is full of running back talent, and supplementing him with a rookie back is within realistic outcomes. If someone is willing to give up an early 2023 1st round rookie pick, it is worth making to reset the window on a young asset.

Josh Jacobs - Las Vegas

Through the first three weeks, Josh McDaniels experimented with fitting Brandon Bolden, Ameer Abdullah, and Zamir White into a committee backfield similar to his time with the Patriots. The Raiders went 0-3 to start the season. In Week 4, the team put everything back on Jacobs, and he responded with a career-level 144 yards and two touchdowns. Running backs have disappointing fantasy production to start in 2022, but this usage will rocket Jacobs into RB1 status. At 24 years old and potentially approaching free agency and the ability to choose the best situation for him, Jacobs should be moved even or ahead of backs like Joe Mixon, who are showing their age to start the season.

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs - Pacheco has two double-digit carry games over 60 yards through four games. And in two games, he saw three or fewer carries and failed to hit ten yards. But the game scripts of these games are the actual reveal. In the weeks he topped 60 yards, the Chiefs led throughout and were comfortable using him to control the game on the ground. In the weeks he saw no involvement, the team played from behind. The team is committed to a three-headed backfield, with Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire seeing usage. Still, surprisingly Edwards-Helaire has led in passing game usage, with 14 targets to 8 for McKinnon. Since Week 1, Pacheco has not seen significant production for fantasy purposes, but he is a rare case where positive game scripts or an injury to either Edwards-Helaire or McKinnon spikes him into utility. An excellent buy low for a rebuilding team.

Kevin Coleman

Dameon Pierce - Houston

I thought about putting Pierce as my answer for the deep sleeper who has gained the most value question, but Pierce was everyone’s favorite breakout candidate before the season started. He’s beginning to prove them right. After a lackluster start to the season, Pierce has scored 18.1 and 25.9 fantasy points in back-to-back games in PPR formats. He has been the lone bright spot for a Texans offense that has struggled this season. Pierce has already returned that value through his play this season for a player that many were getting in the second and third rounds of their rookie drafts. The future looks bright for the rookie as he has clearly taken over the RB1 role from Rex Burkhead, logging 68% of the offensive snaps this weekend.

Rachaad White - Tampa Bay

White has had a slow start to the season due to his pass protection issues, but on Sunday, he had season highs in snap share, targets, and receiving yards. White was efficient against the Cheifs, catching all five targets for fifty yards and scoring a rushing touchdown on the ground. While White’s ceiling is capped with Leonard Fournette on the field, his usage in the passing game is what should excite fantasy managers moving forward. White's dynasty value will continue to rise if he can secure that role and slowly get more carries in this Tampa offense.

Michael Carter - New York

The writing on the wall in New York seems to suggest trouble for Michael Carter. Carter and rookie Breece Hall were receiving mostly a 50/50 split of the usage at the beginning of the season; however, that seems to be shifting toward Breece Hall. Hall played 66% of the snaps on Sunday while earning six targets to Carter’s two. Those are significant differences in each player’s usage and would point to Carter being phased out of the offense and relegated to an injury-dependent fantasy option.

What early-season deep sleeper has caught your eye for a long-term value shift?

Kevin Coleman

WR Romeo Doubs, Green Bay

Doubs was an afterthought heading into the season, with many thinking the breakout rookie receiver that managers would want on this roster was Christian Watson. However, Doubs is currently leading the team with twenty-four targets and has consecutive games of eight targets, including two touchdowns. He was a drop away from having a 40-yard touchdown against New England and has slowly become a trusted target of Aaron Rodgers. Doubs could easily ascend to a must-start each week with the lack of weapons on the Packers roster, and his long-term value has improved. Managers should use this new value and leverage when deciding to throw in Doubs into any trade offers.

Christian Williams

WR Noah Brown, Dallas

Noah Brown is a player whose long-term value has drastically increased over the season's first four weeks. While it's true that Michael Gallup was missing from the offense for most of that stretch, the talent Brown has displayed looks sustainable. He has shown a unique ability to high-point balls, pulling down contested catches and becoming a reliable stick-mover for the Cowboys. Brown is just 26 years old and, while the Cowboys should be interested in bringing him back past 2022, is operating within a contract year. Brown is a dynasty stash once everyone is healthy. Still, Dallas has regularly supported more than two pass catchers under Kellen Moore's guidance, and there's a chance Brown continues to provide flex value.

Jordan McNamara

QB Geno Smith, Seattle

Geno Smith has really changed the arc of his career through four weeks. His underlying metrics last year and this year are legit, and he is playing himself out of direct competition in the draft in 2023. Smith's arc looks like the beginning of Ryan Tannehill's time in Tennessee and changes the potential arc of his dynasty value.

Jeff Bell

WR Josh Reynolds, Detroit

Josh Reynolds and Jared Goff have an evident rapport. Reynolds joined the Lions midseason in 2021, reconnecting with Goff after four seasons together on the Rams. Since Week 12 last year, Reynolds has posted a 36-549-4 line in ten games. That line extrapolated to a 17-game season is 61-933-7. Reynolds has topped 12.8 PPR points in half of those ten games, placing Reynolds on the edge of WR3 status. The additions of D.J. Chark and Jameson Williams drew conversation, but injuries have knocked both out of the lineup, a recurring issue for Chark throughout his career. Williams faces questions about what level of effectiveness he can return to his year while Chark is on a one-year deal. Reynolds has an opportunity to make himself a vital member of this offense, and at 27, he has a window of effectiveness moving forward. A great find who sat on many deep dynasty waiver wires two weeks ago.

Wide Receivers

Jordan McNamara

Marquise Brown - Arizona

Marquise Brown has been nothing but productive in his career. He's 25 years old and ranked at WR6. His quarterbacks in his career have been Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, two quarterbacks the dynasty community has questioned as passers. Yet, this has not held Brown back. He is a consistently undervalued player at the wide receiver position.

Christian Kirk - Jacksonville

Christian Kirk did not have the resume I projected to become a WR1 on his second team, but Kirk has done just that. Kirk is WR10 on the season, despite playing a bad weather game and having and some struggles from his young quarterback. Kirk has changed his expectations for his career more than almost anyone through four weeks.

Jerry Jeudy - Denver

Jerry Jeudy has never lived up to the hype in his career. He has only 11 catches through four weeks and is WR46 in seasonal points. Courtland Sutton is the WR1 in the new Russell Wilson-led offense, leaving Jeudy as an ancillary option in the offense.

Jeff Bell

Gabe Davis - Buffalo

In Week 1, Davis carried his postseason momentum into a primetime matchup and delivered 88 receiving yards and a touchdown. However, Davis left that game with an injury that cost him Week 2 against Tennessee. In Week 3 and Week 4, he was back to his expected snap usage, topping 96% in both games, but the productivity was sapped out. His drop in ADOT, from 17.4 in Week 1 to 10.8 to 7.7, is concerning. So what is happening? Largely, pressure on Josh Allen. The Bills have been decimated with injuries, and center Mitch Morse has been a significant loss. Allen's pressure rate has steadily climbed to 18% in Week 4; teams are getting to him, which has robbed the Bills of Davis's ability to win deep. Davis has not seized the opportunity to see usage in different parts of the field like many hoped to enter the season. The team will likely need to add a receiver in the offseason, and for the second year in a row, it looks like Davis's big breakout is hitting the shelf.

Elijah Moore - New York Jets

Everyone's favorite stat entering 2022 was Moore's extended run as a top-12 wide receiver. But the worst-laid fears of the team drafting Garret Wilson in the top 10 have come true as Wilson has looked dynamic early. There are two primary concerns on Moore; first, the willingness to involve Wilson, Corey Davis, Tyler Conklin, Breece Hall, and Michael Carter all in the passing game at near equal levels leaves small pieces of the pie for all. And second, the team was on pace for record-high volume through the first three weeks, and Moore still struggled to have a meaningful game. Moore is a good receiver. But he is primarily a possession receiver who has only seen two red zone targets on the season; touchdowns are likely few and far between. There does not appear to be the passing volume or splash plays necessary to put Moore into lineups, raising questions about his long-term value.

Adam Thielen - Minnesota

Will he or won't he? That has become an annual dynasty question with Thielen. Few receivers can produce into their thirties, so caution is wholly understood. But after a quiet Week 1, Thielen has shown he still has it, producing as WR26 with 14.2 PPR points per game. He is an excellent target for a contender if the team in your league who has him has gotten off to a slow start, as there is pressure to capitalize on his value before the bottom falls out.

Kevin Coleman

Chris Olave - New Orleans

Olave has had a strong start to his rookie season. He has at least four receptions in the last three games and, with Michael Thomas out, has assumed the role of WR1 on this Saints offense. He leads the team with thirty-six targets, earning thirty-three of those in the last three weeks. While many were drafting Treylon Burks and Skyy Moore over the Ohio State receiver, it looks like Olave should have been the draft choice. Of all the rookie wide receivers this year, Olave has done more for his dynasty value than any of them.

JuJu Smith-Schuster - Kansas City

There was hope that Smith-Schuster would increase his dynasty value this season while playing in the high-powered Chiefs offense. That hope just hasn't become a reality. He hasn’t been bad this season, earning twenty-seven targets in four games, but those targets have not come with production. He has failed to eclipse one hundred yards on the season and has not scored a touchdown. Through four weeks, he is WR47, and he should be dropping in dynasty rankings everywhere.

George Pickens - Pittsburgh

George Pickens' dynasty value got a bit of an uptick this weekend, with the Steelers announcing that Kenny Pickett will be starting for the remainder of the season. According to PFF, Kenny Pickett targeted Pickens on 33.3% of his routes which was an improvement of almost 20% with Trubisky, which led to his best stat line of the season six receptions on eight targets for 102 yards. Pickett should also push the ball vertically, playing into Pickens' strengths.

Christian Williams

Chris Olave - New Orleans

The last three weeks have given dynasty managers a glimpse of what could be ahead for Chris Olave. Since Week 2, Olave is the WR13 in points per game, raking in 18 receptions for 294 yards and ranking third in the NFL in targets with 33. Olave's route-running prowess made him the most pro-ready rookie receiver. While Michael Thomas' availability and future outlook were murky through most of the offseason, it has not mattered. Olave wins at all three field levels, and despite declaring for the NFL Draft a year later than some would have preferred, he looks like a Top 24 dynasty wide receiver moving forward.

D.J. Moore - Carolina

Through four weeks, D.J. Moore is the WR57 on a points-per-game basis. The Panthers' lack of proper directions at the quarterback and head coach positions has made Moore a quickly fading dynasty asset. Moore will be at least 26 years old the next time managers feel comfortable with the player getting him the football. While receivers have longer lifespans than the running back position, he probably won't be attached to a good quarterback until it's too late. Once viewed as a top-ten receiver in dynasty formats, Moore must overcome far too much to reach the ceiling that he possesses. With each draft class comes higher upside players without such obstacles, and Moore should quickly fall on dynasty rankings lists.

George Pickens - Pittsburgh

With the introduction of Kenny Pickett into the offense, George Pickens emerged. His eight targets led all Pittsburgh wideouts and were second only to Pat Freiermuth. He led the team in receiving, and while Diontae Johnson will be more involved when Pickett has the opportunity to work with the first-team offense for an entire week, Pickens' value is inherently higher. His ability to win balls at the catch point is a better fit for a quarterback that will test corners, and Pickens is gaining ground on Chase Claypool to become the No. 2 receiver. Pickens looked like a superstar during training camp, and dynasty managers should be excited about his forward outlook.

Tight Ends

Jeff Bell

Trey McBride - Arizona

McBride has been a steady climb since a healthy inactive Week 1. His snap counts from Week 2 to four: 1-5-32. The increase in Week 4 snaps also saw his first three targets of the season, where he went 3 - 3 for 24 yards. In a position that can take time to develop, it is very encouraging to see the team push his usage forward. But the main intrigue factor is the team's usage of Zach Ertz. Ertz is fourth in tight end targets league-wide with 31, leading the Cardinals with ten red zone targets, double that of the next closest, Marquise Brown's 5. Relying heavily on the tight end position and the increased involvement for McBride opens the door to position him immediately as a potential top-12 starting option in rosters should Ertz be forced from the lineup. A significant step forward from a player with only six snaps through the first three games.

Dalton Schultz - Dallas

Schultz delivered a top-five tight end season in 2021, and the dynasty community reluctantly accepted him, establishing value playing on a franchise player tag. So, of course, he would disappear. Week 1 was okay with a 7-62 line, but since then, he missed Week 3 due to injury and has two catches for 18 yards spread out between weeks two and four. In Week 4, Michael Gallup returned from injury and scored. Several factors have played in, including the emergence of Noah Brown as a reliable secondary wide receiver and CeeDee Lamb's significant step forward as a primary receiving option. For most of the summer, Schultz was viewed as a player who would end up as the second receiving option by default, but that default expired. He looks to have fallen back into the chaotic crowd of boom-or-bust tight-end options.

Christian Williams

Trey McBride - Arizona

After a trio of weeks acting as the No. 3 tight end, Trey McBride's impressive performance in Week 4 saw him supplant Maxx Williams on the depth chart. McBride, the first tight end selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, will undoubtedly operate behind Zach Ertz throughout the season, but the flashes of what will come are showing themselves. McBride caught all three of his targets against the Panthers - his first three of the season - and will look to build on that performance. With the ambiguity at the position and despite the small sample, viewing McBride as a top-12 option is likely just getting ahead of the market.

Gerald Everett - Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert has finally unlocked Gerald Everett. Everett, a perennial top-30-but-never-top-20 finisher, has emerged as the Chargers' second-best receiving threat in the absence of Keenan Allen. His 6.5 targets per game would easily be the highest of his career if it were to hold, and Allen's return should not entirely relegate Everett to a tertiary role. Everett has worked the seams well, an area of the field where Herbert excels, and his athleticism allows him to gain extra yardage. That has resulted in fantasy points. While Everett's contract in Los Angeles isn't long-term, this on-field output should result in an extension, allowing him to catch passes from one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL for a couple more years, at least. That's enough to boost his dynasty value.

Jordan McNamara

Mark Andrews - Baltimore

Mark Andrews is the TE1 in Dynasty. His TE1 finish in 2022, along with his TE2 status through four weeks at 27 years old, while Kyle Pitts has taken a major step back in his second season. Andrews can win a game over Pitts, a huge edge in a season.

Tyler Higbee - Los Angeles Rams

Tyler Higbee is the second option in the Rams offense after the Allen Robinson era has been a near-complete flop. Higbee has 26 receptions through four weeks, which is tied with Travis Kelce as the highest at the position and ranks as TE5 without a touchdown. If you think Higbee cannot sustain the volume, ask yourself who is taking the volume. For a defending Super Bowl Champion, there is surprisingly not a good answer.