Saturday/Sunday Morning Update
Saturday Update:
Mark Andrews looks like he is going to miss this week. This vaults Isaiah Likely into the top overall tight end spot and opens up some nice salary relief. The problem is that there is not much to do with it without a drastic overhaul of the lineup. Currently, I've upgraded James Cook to Aaron Jones while downgrading Mark Andrews to Isaiah Likely. You could build a Christian McCaffrey lineup by dropping Amon-Ra St. Brown down to Chris Godwin and dropping Baltimore down to Green Bay, but forcing him into the lineup is likely giving up too much as the decrease is likely a 10-15 points decrease between St. Brown to Godwin and Baltimore to Green Bay.
- QB Jared Goff, DET, $7,600
- RB Devin Singletary, HOU, $6,400
- RB Rachaad White, TB, $6,700
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, $9,200
- WR Mike Evans, TB, $7,600
- WR Jameson Williams, DET, $5,300
- TE Isaiah Likely, BAL, $5,500
- Flex RB Aaron Jones, GB, $7,400
- TD Baltimore, $4,300
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Mark Andrews looks like he may return this week. He’s logged two consecutive full practices. If he is back this week, he becomes one of the top tight ends on the slate. If not, Isaiah Likely becomes the top tight end on this slate in a favorable matchup against Houston.
- Stefon Diggs was a late add to the injury report as he did not practice on Thursday. This is in addition to Gabe Davis who looks like he will miss this week once again. If Diggs were to miss, it would be a surprise, but Khalil Shakir and Deonte Harty would both see increases as would Dalton Kincaid.
- A.J. Dillon remains questionable with a thumb and neck injury. Even if he returns, it’s likely that this is Aaron Jones’ backfield as the Packers will continue to ride the hot hand.
- Marlon Humphrey is out for Baltimore. While Baltimore is a very deep defense with players such as Rock Ya-Sin or Ronald Darby who can fill in, this will still have a significant impact to the Ravens defense. Nico Collins should receive an upgrade because of this.
Week 20- Be Smart With Bankroll On Short Slates
If you’ve been following this article this season, it has been a very good year. Do not let these small slates give back some of the bankroll that you should have built up. On these shorter slates, the edge that you’ll have over your competition inherently is smaller, as there is going to be more overlap between teams, and making one wrong decision makes it very difficult to make up the point differential. If you want to play for entertainment or play at a low stakes by all means continue to do so, but the last thing you should do is play at a high stakes or high percentage of your bankroll this week.
Take a player like Lamar Jackson this week, he has a 50% probability of reaching value this season, and is in a difficult rushing matchup this week against Houston who he had his worst game of the year against back in Week 1. I’m making the choice to fade him because of the price, but realize that even if there is a 30% chance that Jackson has a big game, there just are not enough value plays or elite plays to make up the points like there are in other weeks.
Cash Game Rankings
Quarterback | ||||
Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
1 | Jared Goff | 18.0 | 7600 | Goff facing off against the Buccaneers is an extremely attractive option this week at home. Tampa Bay is allowing the most passing yards of any team this season, and while they held Jalen Hurts to just 250 passing yards which is below their season average of 278, that seemed to be more on the Eagles not looking right than Tampa Bay finding something that makes them all of a sudden an improved defense. |
2 | Lamar Jackson | 21.3 | 8700 | In terms of upside, Jackson has as much upside as any quarterback on this slate. Most people are going to remember his 36-point outburst against Miami in Week 17 where he was a critical piece for most lineups. However, there are some downsides to Jackson. He's very boom or bust. At $8,700 we really need 22 FanDuel points to feel great about the play, and that's something that he has done only 8 of his 16 starts. The bigger problem is that if he doesn't hit 22 or more, he's been 15 or less 6 of his 16 starts. Houston has a very good run defense, and the way to beat them is through the air. They completely shut down Jackson in Week 1 holding him to just 7.6 FanDuel points. He's going to be the most popular quarterback, so the question you have to ask yourself is whether you're ok with fading. |
3 | Baker Mayfield | 17.6 | 7300 | Detroit's secondary has been abysmal over the last four games. Over their last four games, they've allowed 380 passing yards per game to Nick Mullens twice, Matthew Stafford, and Dak Prescott. Mayfield is the type of quarterback to exploit good matchups and struggle against bad matchups. Mayfield was great last week throwing for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns, and there is a possible outcome this week where Mayfield could repeat that this week. |
Running Back | ||||
Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
1 | Devin Singletary | 11.9 | 6400 | A lot of people are going to be scared off by the matchup here, but the Ravens run defense has been abysmal over the second half of the season. Since Week 10, the Ravens have allowed 5 running backs to top 100-yards, and are allowing a staggering 4.9 yards-per-carry during that stretch. Singletary has 60 yards or more in five of his last six games and with pricing being difficult this week is a player that provides some much needed salary relief. |
2 | James Cook | 13.6 | 6800 | Cook is just underpriced this week and should be strongly looked at. While he didn't score a touchdown last week, he ended the day with 84 yards and 4 catches against Pittsburgh. What you're getting out of Cook is a high-floor because of the number of touches that he has had. Over the last 8 games, he's had 15 or more touches in every game, and while touchdowns have been a problem for Cook, he does have 18 red zone opportunities over the last 5 weeks which leads the team. |
3 | Aaron Jones |
13.7 |
7400 | Volume is the key to this one. Over the last four weeks, Jones has averaged 21 carries per game while adding an additional 3.3 receptions per game. The matchup is a difficult one against San Francisco, but that's largely due to the fact that San Francisco has faced the fewest rushing attempts in the NFL this season as teams are quick to abandon the run against the 49ers once they fall behind. Green Bay needs to look at the teams that have had success against the 49ers which has been to continue to try to run the ball against them. While San Francisco has not allowed a 100-yard rusher this year, they have allowed five running backs to top 16 FanDuel points which at $7,400 is realistically all we need this week. |
4 | Christian McCaffrey | 22.9 | 10,800 | Where to put Christian McCaffrey in rankings this week was almost as impossible as fitting him comfortably in your lineup. The problem here comes down to this, he's clearly the number one option in terms of total expected points at the running back position. His floor is the highest of all running backs, and he is in one of the better matchups of the week (although still not great). However, at $10,800 on a slate where there is not a lot of value, especially at the defense and tight end position, it seems almost impossible to fit him in unless you're taking longshot flyers on multiple guys. |
5 | Rachaad White | 13.7 |
6700 |
The biggest problem for White is the matchup, as the Lions have been the league's best defenses against the run this season. They've allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, and not allowed a running back to top 70 yards rushing this year. The price is very reasonable considering his production over the second-half of the season, and he has shown he can be a capable receiver if the Lions are clogging the running opportunities, but this is a difficult one simply because we would be asking White to do something almost no running back has done which is reach cash game value against the Lions. |
Wide Receiver | ||||
Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
1 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 16.9 | 9200 | St. Brown facing off against Tampa Bay who have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers is a no brainer this week if you can afford him. At $9,200, the price is difficult, but St. Brown has 90 yards or more in each of his last five games, while scoring a touchdown in four of those five games. Like McCaffrey the only question here is whether you can prioritize him, which it is difficult |
2 | Mike Evans | 14.9 | 7600 | Evans has struggled as of late which has brought his price down to a very affordable $7,600. Detroit is allowing 380 passing yards per game over the last four games. For the Buccaneers to have any success this week, it will likely need to be Mike Evans who has a very favorable matchup against Cameron Sutton. |
3 | Jameson Williams | 6.6 | 5,300 | Jameson Williams did not work out last week, but on a week with little value, he still provides the upside that very few wide receivers in that price range have. Williams is in a favorable matchup against the Buccaneers who have struggled allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. |
4 | Stefon Diggs | 12.9 | 7500 | This is a week where I'm just taking talented players at underpriced positions. Diggs has seven receptions in each of his last two games, and with Gabe Davis looking like he will miss this week again, Diggs should be having a big volume day once again. Diggs has not scored a touchdown over his last six games, but on a condensed slate, there are just not many wide receivers with the talent of Diggs even though the recent production has not been there. |
5 | Nico Collins | 14.6 |
8700 |
With Marlon Humphrey ruled out, Nico Collins should be in a great opportunity this week to once again have a big game. Baltimore has struggled against number one receivers, as since Week 10, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp, Brandon Aiyuk, Tyreek Hill, and Diontae Johnson all have 75 yards or more against Baltimore. |
Tight End | ||||
Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
1 | Mark Andrews | 11.4 | 6000 | Mark Andrews has logged two full practices in a row. He should be good to go this week which if he plays at $6,000 immediately vaults him to the top spot for this week. Houston is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, and Cleveland exploited the matchup as David Njoku and Harrison Bryant had 11 receptions for 158 yards last week. |
2 | Isaiah Likely (if Andrews is out) | 9.5 | 5500 | Likely at $5,500 becomes a top play if Andrews is out this week simply because of the matchup. Likely is averaging 54 yards per game over his last six games. |
3 | Travis Kelce | 11.1 | 7100 | 10 targets for Kelce last week is just the fourth time this season we have seen the tight end get to the 10 target number. On the road against Buffalo who have very good corners, Kansas City will likely need to turn to Kelce this week to move the ball downfield. |
Team Defense | ||||
Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
1 | Baltimore | 8.8 | 4,300 | Only one team gets to face a rookie quarterback this week. C.J. Stroud going on the road to face a team that is fully rested is a potentially bad spot for the rookie of the year. At $4,300, the price should be higher. |
2 | Tampa Bay | 7.8 | 3500 | While it should be a high-scoring game, the Buccaneers do have 13 interceptions on the year. At $3,500, if you're paying down for a defense, Tampa Bay could be one that you look at this week. |
Lineups
Overview
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based on the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them than the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has in most cases 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 114.0)
- QB Jared Goff, DET, $7,600
- RB Devin Singletary, HOU, $6,400
- RB Rachaad White, TB, $6,700
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, $9,200
- WR Mike Evans, TB, $7,600
- WR Jameson Williams, DET, $5,300
- TE Mark Andrews, BAL, $6,000
- Flex RB James Cook, BUF, $6,800
- TD Baltimore, $4,300
ROSTER 2 ($60K) –Cash Plus - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 114.0)
A cash-plus lineup is designed to be used in something like a 100-player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
No cash plush this week. Honestly, I couldn’t find a lineup that I liked more than the primary cash lineup.
ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 114.4)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher-rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Jared Goff, DET, $7,600
- RB Devin Singletary, HOU, $6,400
- RB Rachaad White, TB, $6,700
- WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $7,500
- WR Mike Evans, TB, $7,600
- WR Jameson Williams, DET, $5,300
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,100
- Flex RB Aaron Jones, GB, $7,400
- TD Baltimore, $4,300
Player Chart
Primary Cash Game Play | |||||
Secondary Cash Game Play | |||||
Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | H-Value | Point/$ |
Josh Allen | QB | 9400 | 21.9 | 44.7 | 2.3 |
Lamar Jackson | QB | 8700 | 23.3 | 53.8 | 2.7 |
Brock Purdy | QB | 7800 | 19.5 | 44.0 | 2.5 |
Patrick Mahomes II II | QB | 7700 | 18.9 | 42.1 | 2.5 |
Jared Goff | QB | 7600 | 18.0 | 39.4 | 2.4 |
Jordan Love | QB | 7400 | 16.4 | 34.3 | 2.2 |
Baker Mayfield | QB | 7300 | 17.5 | 38.8 | 2.4 |
C.J. Stroud | QB | 7200 | 15.9 | 33.5 | 2.2 |
Christian McCaffrey | RB | 10800 | 22.8 | 41.8 | 2.1 |
Isiah Pacheco | RB | 7500 | 13.4 | 23.8 | 1.8 |
Aaron Jones | RB | 7400 | 13.7 | 25.3 | 1.9 |
Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 7300 | 12.5 | 21.7 | 1.7 |
David Montgomery | RB | 7000 | Photos provided by Imagn Images
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