Know Your Opposition
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
Key Injuries for Week 16
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There are still some uncertain situations that could change things, so be sure to check back for the Sunday Morning Update this week.
- C.J. Stroud will miss this week with a concussion. Case Keenum will get the start this week for Houston. Houston may get Nico Collins back this week, which would be a nice return for a Texans team that is not deep at the wide receiver position and would give Keenum a primary receiver as Noah Brown can be a complimentary guy, but likely is not a consistent primary receiver at this point.
- Tyreek Hill looks like he will return this week with his ankle injury, although is still questionable. If he were to miss, Jaylen Waddle could be in play, but Raheem Mostert would also get an upgrade.
- Green Bay’s receivers are a mess. Christian Watson is out, while Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks are both questionable. Of the two, it seems as if Reed is unlikely to play, while Wicks barring a setback should be good to go this week. Both Wicks and tight end Tucker Kraft will see upgrades and are in cash game consideration this week, while Romeo Doubs could be a GPP play, although we really haven’t seen much upside from Doubs in quite some time.
- Also for the Packers A.J. Dillon is questionable this week, and this could be the biggest news to watch in Week 16. If Dillon is out, Aaron Jones becomes a tremendous play for the Packers as he should see growth on the 13 carries he had last week in a premiere matchup against the Panthers. If Dillon plays, which Dillon is saying all the right things about this just being a pain tolerance issue, then Jones becomes a more difficult cash game play as the volume just may not be there for the Packers running back.
- D’Onta Foreman is questionable this week with a personal matter. If he were to miss, Roschon Johnson would elevate into near must-start territory based on the matchup and price.
- Jonathan Taylor will return this week after missing the last several weeks with a thumb injury.
- Marquise Brown will miss this week with a heel injury. This should primarily help Trey McBride continue to be the focal point of this offense.
Slate Overview- Week 16 Thoughts- Ugly Slate
If you thought last week was hard with only 10 games, this week gets more difficult as we have a nine-game slate in Week 16. Not to mention, some of the favorite teams of DFS players are not on this slate, as we are missing Buffalo, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Baltimore, and San Francisco.
This has done the opposite of what was expected, as one could surmise that a small slate would drive roster percentages all towards the top for games such as Dallas and Miami, but because of the lack of value on some of these bad offenses, it has created a flatter distribution of roster percentages across the board at the wide receiver position. As we stand now, there are no wide receivers that are trending to be more than 20% rostered, while at the running back position we are looking at potentially just two running backs that are going to be over 20% rostered.
What this does, is it should create an exciting week. With roster percentages being clustered together, you can largely disregard roster percentages this week outside of a few critical players such as Ty Chandler and Breece Hall.
Stacks
Top Stacks
Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Calvin Ridley
Baker Mayfield is in another tremendous position after last week’s dominant performance. Last week, Mayfield threw for 381 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Packers completing 78% of his passes in that game. For Evans, as great as he has been this season, he was disappointing last week as it was Chris Godwin who did most of the work as he had 10 receptions for 155 yards. For Evans however he is the touchdown threat having caught 11 on the season, and we’ve seen slate-changing performances from him earlier this year as he’s topped 140-yards three times this season.
Both of these teams’ secondaries have struggled this season as the Jaguars are allowing the 9th-most FanDuel points to opposing wide receivers, while the Buccaneers have allowed the 4th-most. This is a potential candidate for the highest-scoring game of this slate and one that you should target if you’re building multiple lineups even if the roster percentage of this game is somewhat high.