Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Week 3 was about the Miami Dolphins breaking records and Taylor Swift. Performances by players like Tank Dell and Sam LaPorta caused a shift in the dynasty landscape. Weekly, the Footballguys staff will share their thoughts on the dynasty ranking movement to monitor while answering a question you may face in your league.
What are you doing with Justin Fields in Dynasty?
It feels like Groundhog Day with Justin Fields. It's funny: last season, Justin Fields' value fell off a cliff for the first five or six games; everyone hated him, he was the worst, his coaches couldn't coach, and the team was awful. The Bears made some coaching changes; they schemed up Fields, and he went out and scored many fantasy points, and everyone forgot. Now we are doing it again. Fields has been a pretty bad NFL quarterback this season on every metric you can evaluate quarterback play with. Poor performance is a problem because if you don't become a good NFL quarterback, you are less likely to keep your job, which makes it hard to be a good fantasy quarterback. That said, when Fields played well last year, he was a fantasy differentiator at the quarterback position, primarily because of his rushing abilities. In 2022, Fields put up 20.6 (QB5) fantasy points per game. The upside is apparent, but if he can't keep his job starting in the NFL, then it just doesn't matter.
Fields' fair market value is about a 2024 late 1st. The chart below shows Fields' KeepTradeCut.com value since March of 2021; as you can see, it's been up and down. In the first few weeks of the 2022 season, Fields lost about 26% of his KTC value, gained it all back, and went on a tremendous run. Through the first three weeks of the 2023 season, Fields' KTC value is down 34%, which may be an overreaction. As for what to do, the prudent thing to do would be to hold and wait it out for a change in situation. If you are nervous, I'd look to move off Fields into guys like Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, C.J. Stroud, or Bryce Young.
My answer to these types of questions is always team-dependent. However, I wonder if I could sleep at night if I traded Fields. Especially at this point in the season when his value has entirely depreciated. It would be dynasty malpractice to do so. If you're a Fields manager, you've undoubtedly been doing homework on him this year. I am confident in attributing much of his dysfunction to the front office and coaches. Fields' dilemma feels different from last year when he started slowly and then took off. The Bears this year feel entirely broken. Pondering how Chicago's offensive woes can be resolved feels like banging your head against a brick wall.
If you're 0-3, your chances of making the playoffs are below 20 percent. However, if Fields turns things around soon, he's one of the few quarterbacks who can help you beat those odds. With all that said, the upside is far too high to sell right now. I'm holding and buying Fields where I can.
It may be an unpopular opinion, but the buy window is firmly open for Justin Fields in dynasty leagues. While seemingly everything has gone wrong for the third-year quarterback, and his play hasn't inspired a ton of confidence that he'll turn it around, it's difficult to imagine that a player with that talent level could break to the point he's not afforded a second chance elsewhere. Fields is a record-holding quarterback with arguably the most raw talent of any underperforming signal-caller in the league. Suppose Chicago chooses to move on from him. In that case, he's likely granted a second opportunity (similar to Sam Darnold in Carolina), and the bottom line is that removing Fields from the situation he's currently in could return his fantasy value and vault him into that elite tier of fantasy performers. His acquisition cost may never be lower than now, and I still believe in the talented quarterback.
As someone who has zero shares across all my dynasty leagues, I'm in a unique position by being able to sit back and observe the market across all my leagues. Fields has not been good this season, and if his play continues to be bad, we could be looking at a quarterback heading toward a backup role in the league. However, based on the other quarterbacks we see across the NFL, there is reason to believe Fields could find another opportunity if the Bears decide to move on from him. If you roster Fields, he's a clear hold based on the current market unless you could acquire a quarterback in the QB10-14 range, then I would think about selling. However, if you like to take risks, this could be a fun buy-low opportunity for a Konami quarterback who can win weeks solely with his legs. For context, here are some recent trades involving Fields in 12 Team SF Leagues:
- Justin Fields for Russell Wilson
- Justin Fields for Justyn Ross/2024 1st
- Justin Fields for Tank Dell/Mac Jones
- Justin Fields/Miles Sanders/2025 2nd for Jordan Love
I am buying. Fields has more points through three games than Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and Joe Burrow. It is well known Chicago is not catering to Fields' strengths. This is a subjective thought; he has lost confidence in his game from this new coaching staff. We have seen his potential, and I would like to see him in a system favoring the skillset. Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, and Carson Wentz are a few quarterbacks who have found starting jobs beyond their initial team. Chicago will be drafting a new quarterback in 2024, and we will see Fields starting for a team ready to utilize his potential. The opportunity to buy low on a Konami quarterback outweighs the risk of him being a backup in the league.
Daniel Jones - I'm trading for Daniel Jones. Jones has had a disastrous start to the season. He's only had one QB1 finish and two other outings where he scored under ten fantasy points. Jones' cost has sunk somewhat, but that will likely not last long. Brian Daboll is a savvy coach who can fix an offense. In addition, the Giants are getting Saquon Barkley and Wandale Robinson. Jalin Hyatt is still being developed and is a much-needed explosive element to the offense. The Giants started turbulent, but the season is still young. Most teams need at least the first month to put things in place. Jones is currently third in quarterback rush attempts behind Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, with only one less rushing touchdown than Jackson.
Brock Purdy - Purdy is playing good football, good enough to be a top-12 quarterback through three weeks. Purdy is the model of good decision-making and ideal field vision, albeit with some turnover luck. Betting on talent at the quarterback position is a heavily implemented dynasty strategy, but Purdy's place in a Shanahan offense uplifts his talent and gives him job security. Purdy is a top-15 dynasty QB, and while he doesn't possess much upside, he's the perfect No. 2 to target for rosters right now.
C.J. Stroud - Stroud is currently playing the best football of all the rookie quarterbacks. He has 906 passing yards this season, and according to Adam Schefter, he is the third player in NFL history with at least 900 passing yards in his first three games, joining Cam Newton and Justin Herbert. In dynasty, we talk about situations and talent and which is more important. Stroud seems to find himself in a perfect offense that elevates his strengths, and he has the talent to go with the offense. He seems to be playing more freely in this Texan's offense than he did in college, and his ability to make plays out of structure sets him apart right now from the other rookie quarterbacks in this class. Stroud has slowly made a case to be a top-12 quarterback in dynasty.
C.J. Stroud - Stroud is off to a hot start to his NFL career. I'm going to run through some numbers here, but the main point is that Stroud has surprised to the upside to start this season and is looking a little better, at this moment, than the other two-round draft picks he came in with, Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson. Through three weeks, he is 78 of 121 for 906 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. PFF gives Stroud an adjusted completion percentage of 74.5%, and Next Gen Stats has Stroud a 1.8 completion percentage above expectations. The Edge has Stroud at expected points added per play of 0.04, around QB11 on the season. Stroud is also developing a great relationship with his pass catchers Nico Collins and fellow rookie Tank Dell. Stroud is moving up in the dynasty rankings.
Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.
An ELITE subscription is required to access content for Dynasty leagues. If this league is not a Dynasty league, you can edit your leagues here.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE