The Gut Check No.613: 25 Futures Worth Tracking

Photo: Stan Szeto, USA Today Sports

Fantasy GMs that lean heavily on draft capital and recent production for their roster decisions are playing the odds. This is an important part of managing a fantasy football roster because it gives you a macro-level understanding of the ebb and flow of talent.

It limits avoiding errors rooted in ignorance. When leaned on exclusively, it also limits fantasy GMs from being ahead of the curve on players who can help you win games at a minimal cost.

The more homework you do to understand the factors that can lead to a player's emergence, the better you get at finding players who can help you before your peers recognize their value. The most important lesson that most people know but don't embrace is that every player who has earned consideration from an NFL team is talented.

For example, on The Audible's live podcast of the first round of the NFL Draft a few years ago, I stated that Daniel Jones was a fraud. The implication is that Jones was a fraud as a potential franchise starter worthy of a first-round selection, not that he lacked the talent to be in the league.

However, like most entertainment professions, fans have been conditioned to view talents from an all-or-nothing lens. They are great, or they aren't worthy of the league. Another package of disposable commodities of pop culture. If the corporate machine isn't touting them, they are worthless.

This week, I'm sharing an exercise I undertake at least 2-3 times a year, and that's generating players who may not be in the collective consciousness of the fantasy community but are worth monitoring. When you operate on the presumption that every player who has earned consideration from an NFL team is talented, you are poised to embrace a second important lesson: player fit can have a huge role in elevating or diminishing the viability of talent.

Last year's list included Jake Ferguson, Khalil Shakir, Jerome Ford, Rashid Shaheed, and Ty Chandler. Considering we're looking at the margins of rosters, 5 players who've delivered impactful weeks out of a list of 25 is pretty good.

Here's a list of 25 players near (or below the margins of) the collective fantasy radar heading into 2024. I'm listing them in ascending order of my level of interest over the next 6-12 months.

MONITOR, BUT DON'T ADD

25. TE Josh Whyle, Tennessee: Chig Okonkwo is in the final stages of a dismal sophomore year. Drops, quarterback changes, offensive line woes, and a massive role he expected to have in the offense never materialized. Whyle has the athletic ability and hand-eye coordination of a starting move tight end in the NFL. Okonkwo's dimensions are in the realm of a player without a position — not quite a TE, WR, or FB.

Unless you're in a 1.5 PPR format for tight ends, adding Whyle isn't necessary. That may change if he has a strong stretch run, considering that his snaps and targets have increased in recent weeks.

24. TE/WR Elijah Higgins, Arizona: At this time last year, Higgins was Michael Wilson's running mate at wide receiver for the Stanford Cardinals. Originally signing with Miami after the draft, the Dolphins made him a late cut to keep additional depth at running back and quarterback. The Cardinals were one of eight teams interested in Higgins.

Tre McBride is the hot property at tight end now that he's statistically shown potential to make good on his pre-draft promise, so Higgins isn't a priority addition. However, Zach Ertz will be in the final year of his deal in 2024, and Higgins has the versatility to play inside or outside.

A capable pass catcher with skill as a runner; monitor how the Cardinals intend to use Higgins. If they use him in a hybrid receiver role, he may be worth adding to deep dynasty rosters.

23. Chad Kelly, CFL: I have to fulfill my weekly quota of mentioning Kelly in a feature or on a podcast. There's actual substance behind the running joke.

Several NFL teams made offers to Kelly after the Colts cut him, and he spent a year away from playing football. He decided he wanted to go somewhere he would get playing time and, most importantly, be grounded near family. He chose Montreal.

When he made that choice, the Colts QB coach at that time told the Alouette’s brass that Kelly had legitimate NFL interest. He also said that Kelly had the skills to become the next Warren Moon in the CFL. I know that from the film, but I know most of you would like additional validation from an NFL guy and not the Kelly-Aaron Donald story, which, by the way, I believe.

Kelly just signed a contract extension that earns him a guaranteed bonus if he doesn’t sign with an NFL team between December and February. Although he's the highest-paid player in the CFL, an NFL team probably could get him cheap by starter standards and roll the dice. At 29, he has 5-6 years left, at least.

People make fun of the off-field stuff, but when Kelly said (at the time) the only QB faster than him was Lamar Jackson, that was legit true.

He has the processing confidence and aggression of a star. My biggest disappointment of the past 29 years is that he screwed up that Denver opportunity. The Mahomes-Kelly rivalry would have been the best thing in the NFL. He has the ability to make Herbert look like an undercard attraction.

He was THAT promising coming out of school. With the crazy path his career has taken, I would no longer put him up there with Herbert and Mahomes because the environment to ease his acclimation is no longer there. He will be on a tighter leash in the NFL due to his past behavior if he earns another shot.

Kelly fell in the NFL Draft mostly due to off-field concerns. He also has a learning disability that forced the staff to approach installs a bit differently, and hernia and ACL surgeries prior to his final year at Ole Miss also contributed to his slide.

I was told at the draft by an NFL guy with biomechanics expertise that Kelly needed a year to sit and remake his body. Knowing this and watching the athletic ability Kelly put on display in the SEC in his final season was gutsy and impressive.

So you know, I have added Kelly in every dynasty league with a deep roster, which is about 80 percent of my leagues. I'm not advising you to do the same until he's signed by an NFL team. That could happen in the next three months or not for another three years. It might not happen at all.

Still, the processing potential Mahomes showed at Texas Tech was what got me most excited about him. The same was true with Kelly.

DEEP DYNASTY ROSTERS ONLY

22. WR Jalen Nailor, Vikings: K.J. Osborn's contract expires this year, and Nailor has been a favorite pet project of the Vikings for the past two seasons. He has a game that resembles former teammate Jayden Reed's, which makes him a viable candidate to replace Osborn if Minnesota doesn't re-sign the veteran.

Nailor is currently on the cusp between monitoring and signing to a deep dynasty roster. How the Vikings approach Osborn and its QB situation this offseason will drive how to regard Nailor.

21. TE Tucker Kraft, Packers: He'll likely retain the No.2 role in 2024 for Green Bay, considering the number of tight ends on the Packers' depth chart whose contracts expire at year's end. Kraft has also recently earned more playing time, including a 54-snap, 2-target, 2-catch, 15-yard performance in Week 12 against the Lions that included a touchdown.

Kraft has been averaging 30 snaps per game since Week 7, and he's earned 7 of his 9 targets during the past three weeks. Although not as athletic as Musgrave, he's a more rugged ball carrier with a little more upside as a blocker and play-action receiver in the flats.

He's kind of a middle-class Trey McBride in terms of athletic ability and style of play, which could make him productive if Musgrave gets hurt or falters in Year Two.

20. WR Justin Shorter, Bills: Gabriel Davis and Trent Sherfield's contracts expire at year's end, which likely means the pecking order for Buffalo's passing game will be Stefon Diggs remaining the primary option and Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid battling it out for the No.2 role. Even so, Shorter is a big receiver with contested-catch skills and build-up speed who has the potential to make a case for Davis' role. A preemptive addition during the offseason isn't a bad strategy, even if injuries become the best opportunity for Shorter's fantasy relevance in 2024.

19. WR Ronnie Bell, 49ers: Jauan Jennings, Ray-Ray McCloud, and Chris Conley could all be elsewhere after this year, and that means Bell could earn the third receiver spot and be one play away from filling in for Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel. A skilled special teams player, Bell may have earned roster consideration as a rookie due to his work on returns, but his receiving skills vaulted him up the depth chart and made him a starter early in the year when Aiyuk suffered a shoulder injury.

Bell may not earn significant opportunities next year due to the offense, the 2024 NFL Draft, or free agency. At this point of the season, it doesn't matter. What matters most is that he has skills that could develop into a contributing role, making him worth a speculative offseason addition.

18. WR Xavier Hutchinson, Texans: Noah Brown arrived in Houston with a one-year deal, but I bet it's a cheap enough deal that the Texans reconsidered extending Brown's time in town, especially after how well he filled in for Nico Collins. If they don't, it's because of the team's growing confidence in Hutchinson, who is faster than Brown, equally sure-handed, and better after the catch.

Hutchinson made the roster because, like Brown in Dallas, he embraced the special teams life. Still, the Texans have given Hutchinson a steady diet of 7-12 snaps in most games this year.

There's a legitimate opportunity for Hutchinson to make a quick climb up this Texans depth chart. Robert Woods is in his final years, and John Metchie III has not been impressive. If Brown isn't re-signed and there isn't a significant addition via free agency or the draft, Hutchinson could be the third option to open 2024 training camp.

I'm 50/50 on that prospect happening.