Before looking ahead to the 2024 season, it's important to take a moment to focus on the fantasy football lessons learned in the 2023 campaign. Let's look at fantasy football tight ends.
Related: See What We Learned in 2023: Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
Related: See What We Learned in 2023: Fantasy Football Running Backs
Related: See What We Learned in 2023: Fantasy Football Wide Receivers
Rookies matter more than ever.
The best tight end in fantasy drafts this season was rookie Sam LaPorta, who finished third in PPR points per game, less than one behind Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson, and decisively outproduced them in the fantasy playoffs. Dalton Kincaid was drafted ahead of LaPorta by Buffalo, and he was a strong TE1 for the five weeks that Dawson Knox missed. That’s not all. Michael Mayer, the third tight end drafted (Las Vegas), had a handful of TE1 games even though he came into the season hurt and ended the season hurt. Tucker Kraft, who wasn’t even the first tight end selected by the Packers in 2023, was TE9 after the tight end selected ahead of him, Luke Musgrave, went down.
What We’ll Do in 2024: Strongly consider Brock Bowers, who will definitely be the first tight end off of the board and possibly even go in the top 8-10 of the draft, as our plan at tight end in drafts as long as he is still around his early best ball draft ADP of TE7 in the seventh round.
Travis Kelce might be slowing down.
Travis Kelce was every bit worth the mid-first-round pick he cost in 2023 through Week 7, even though he missed Week 1. He was even ahead of his PPR points per game clip from 2022. From Weeks 8-17, he was TE10, averaging fewer points than Taysom Hill, Jake Ferguson, and Cole Kmet. In the fantasy playoffs, he was TE24 behind players like Durham Smythe and Elijah Higgins. Kelce did look like and produce like his old self in the NFL postseason, so maybe he was just pacing himself for another Super Bowl run.
What We’ll Do in 2024: Kelce is going as the TE2 in the fourth round of early best ball drafts. That will be a bargain if we get his average points per game from 2023, only spread out more evenly. Targeting him at ADP is an acceptable plan, although it might not be the best plan.
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The Waiver Wire Will Provide.
Trey McBride gave us strong TE1 production for over half of a season from the waiver wire. Jake Ferguson gave us a low TE1 season. Juwan Johnson was TE2 during the fantasy playoffs. Isaiah Likely was TE4 during the fantasy playoffs. Tucker Kraft was TE8 during the fantasy playoffs. Taysom Hill was TE3 from Weeks 6-13, behind only Kelce and Hockenson. Dalton Schultz was TE4 from Weeks 4-11. What do they all have in common? They were available on your waiver wire - assuming Schultz and Hill were dropped after slow starts.
What We’ll Do in 2024: It is unusual for that much sustained production to come from the waiver wire, so we won’t completely punt the position in drafts, but waiting until the 10th round or later to take your starter doesn’t seem as scary now.
Jordan Addison didn’t hurt T.J. Hockenson, Calvin Ridley didn’t hurt Evan Engram, and Elijah Moore didn’t hurt David Njoku.
T.J. Hockenson finally started to fulfill his fantasy promise after being traded to the Vikings midseason. But when they drafted a wide receiver in the first round last year, the idea that Hockenson was only targeted heavily by necessity - a necessity that Addison would address - loomed over Hockenson’s lofty TE4 fantasy draft status. Evan Engram finally came alive late in 2022, but his team added the outside WR1 they lacked and created a passing game that might be too crowded for Engram to live up to his TE8 draft cost. David Njoku was very good - when healthy - before Deshaun Watson’s terrible finish to the season sunk the offense. The Browns traded for Elijah Moore in the offseason, and he was the subject of a lot of buzz, possibly making Njoku overpriced at TE10. All three finished in the top six fantasy tight ends, and Njoku was the clear TE1 overall during the fantasy playoffs. The improved production from 2022 was a stronger indicator than worry about their slice of the pie getting smaller because of new additions.
What We’ll Do in 2024: Trey McBride was TE3 (behind Hockenson and Njoku) on a PPR points-per-game basis after Zach Ertz went down. He’s TE3 in early drafts, but if/when the Cardinals take a wide receiver early, his ADP could drop. If you’re in on him before Arizona drafts an elite wide receiver prospect, you should be in on him after they do. Cole Kmet’s already depressed TE14 ADP in early drafts will probably fall further if the Bears draft a wide receiver at #9 overall, but it shouldn’t.
…but Kittle and Goedert’s offenses held them back.
George Kittle finished at TE3 in 2022, and Dallas Goedert at TE5 in 2023, which made their TE3 and TE6 (respectively) ADPs in 2023 look very reasonable. Having two strong wide receivers in their passing games made them boom-bust plays from week-to-week, and disappointing picks at (for tight ends) a high draft cost. Kittle actually finished less than half of a point off of his 2022 PPR points per game average and played in every game. His underperformance was more because there were more viable options at tight end in 2023. Goedert dropped almost two points per game, and missed significant time for the second straight season. He was a straight-up fantasy bust, although he finished strong in Weeks 16-17.
What We’ll Do in 2024: Kittle is going off of the board as TE6 in the sixth round and Goedert as TE13 in the 10th. It’s hard to justify taking Kittle over Njoku and Engram, even though fantasy drafters are. Goedert is a better pick and he should be in any TEBC/minimal tight end draft plan. This could give us a little pause about Brock Bowers in redraft if he lands on the Chargers and they still have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
Kyle Pitts isn’t happening… yet.
Kyle Pitts ADP fell to the sixth round from its previous third-round levels. The Falcons were going from Marcus Mariota to Desmond Ridder, and Mariota to just about any quarterback looked like an upgrade, even if it was just a modest one. Jonnu Smith was also reunited with Arthur Smith in the offseason. Surely that couldn’t be the key piece of information in the analysis of Pitts’ fantasy value in 2023? Narrator: It was. Smith was only 1.2 PPR points per game ahead of Smith, finishing as TE15 between Taysom Hill and Logan Thomas.
What We’ll Do in 2024: Pitts has the promise of a new coaching staff, a new quarterback (to be determined), and another draft discount to the eighth round in early best ball drafts. David Njoku is going in the same range and could be a better choice, but no one can be faulted for getting back in on Pitts at this price, especially if Kirk Cousins ends up in Atlanta.
A new team didn't change much for Darren Waller.
The Giants traded a third-round pick for Darren Waller in the offseason, and he grabbed all of the headlines in training camp as the clear #1 target for Daniel Jones in an offense that lacked high-quality wide receivers. He had a chance to be a big hit as the TE5 off of the board. While he was up and down with three good to great games and four duds through seven weeks, he was TE5 after Week 7. Things were even looking up after Waller posted his best game of the season with Tyrod Taylor that week. He and Taylor both got hurt in Week 8. Waller and Taylor both returned for the fantasy playoffs, but Waller’s production was mediocre at best.
What We’ll Do in 2024: Waller isn’t even sure he’s going to play in 2024. He’s available in the 13th round of early best ball drafts, if not later. He only fits in draft plans that need upside later after going light at the position in the early rounds.
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