Before looking ahead to the 2024 season, it's important to take a moment to focus on the fantasy football lessons learned in the 2023 campaign. Let's look at fantasy football wide receivers.
Related: See What We Learned in 2023: Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
Related: See What We Learned in 2023: Fantasy Football Running Backs
A Lamb Shall Lead Them
If you had CeeDee Lamb on your team, you probably won your championship. He finished slightly behind Tyreek Hill for WR1 overall on a points-per-game basis, but he averaged almost 29 PPR points per game from Weeks 15-17, with a title-winning 42.2 in Week 17. After the Cowboys made adjustments during the Week 7 bye to feature Lamb, he averaged 28.2 PPR points per game, 6.8 more than Hill or any other wide receiver. Even though Puka Nacua gave you low WR1 production as a waiver wire pickup, there’s a good argument that Lamb was the best wide receiver pick in the 2023 drafts as a late first-round selection.
What We’ll Do in 2024: If we want Lamb, we’ll have to take him in the top three of fantasy drafts and possibly as WR1 overall.
Kellen Moore was at least good for Keenan Allen.
When the Cowboys allowed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to go to the Chargers in the offseason, it was supposed to be bad for Lamb and company and good for Justin Herbert and Bolts passing game. Maybe things would have turned out differently if Mike Williams hadn’t gone down in Week 3 (his points per game through three weeks put him at WR12 for the season), but things didn’t go as planned for the Chargers, who swept the deck of the coaching staff and front office at the end of the season. Ironically, the biggest beneficiary of the change to Moore in 2023 was Keenan Allen, who basically played the same role Lamb did when Moore ran the Cowboys offense. Lamb broke out without Moore, and Allen put up some of the best numbers of his career in his age-31 season with Moore, finishing as WR3 on a points-per-game basis. Allen did miss the fantasy playoffs with a heel injury, but as a third-round pick, he was a big reason fantasy teams got to the postseason.
What We’ll Do in 2024: It’s unclear if the Chargers will pay him a $5 million roster bonus on March 17 and keep Allen and his $34.7 million cap hit. He said he wants to stay with the team, but the Chargers will have to do some cap gymnastics to deal with having four of the top 14 cap hits in the league for 2024. He’s actually going lower in early drafts than in 2023, probably because of the uncertainty around his future, turning 32 this offseason, and being in a run-first offense if he plays for the Chargers. That sounds like a value.
Pay attention to rookie news in the offseason/preseason.
We’ll go more in-depth on the 2023 rookie receiver class later, but for now, let’s look at the headliners: Puka Nacua and Tank Dell. Dell, one of the smallest receivers in the 2023 draft, was WR13 on a points-per-game basis before his season ended in Week 13 because of an ankle injury. Nacua, an unheralded fifth-round pick, took an injured Cooper Kupp’s place to open the season and then supplanted Kupp as the team’s No. 1 receiver by the end of the season. He finished as WR7 on a points-per-game basis. Both were consistently the subject of positive news out of minicamp, OTAs, and then training camp. Both were free in fantasy drafts and available in almost all Week 2 (in Dell’s case, Week 3) waiver wires. Dell helped get fantasy teams to the playoffs; Nacua helped them bring home the title.
What We’ll Do in 2024: Both are priced correctly in early drafts (Nacua late first, Dell third round), so there’s no discount. The more important lesson is to be ready to believe in rookie receivers who didn’t go early in the NFL draft but still earn praise throughout the spring and summer and then produce in September.
Rookie QBs can improve the value of their receivers.
Tank Dell wasn’t the only receiver to surprisingly benefit from playing with a rookie quarterback (C.J. Stroud did reportedly lobby the Texans to select Dell). Nico Collins finished as WR16 and was one of the biggest values of 2023 fantasy drafts. Even Noah Brown was a short stint as a waiver week winner with Stroud’s help. Michael Pittman Jr got off to a strong start with the help of Anthony Richardson. Even Adam Thielen ended up being one of the best values of 2023 drafts thanks to the limitations of Bryce Young, who otherwise was a disaster when he wasn’t relying on his security blanket veteran receiver.
What We’ll Do in 2024: With three quarterbacks set to go off the board before any other player is selected, we’ll likely have three more wide receiver rooms adjusting to a rookie starter. If fantasy drafters fade them too much, we’ll be sure to pounce.
Only one Moore was ready to be more in 2023.
DJ Moore always had the look of a receiver who should be more productive but couldn’t overcome poor and inconsistent quarterback play. A trade to the Bears and only a modest upgrade to Justin Fields lifted Moore to WR8 on the season, even though Fields only improved incrementally as a passer. Elijah Moore got his wish in the form of a trade to the Browns and generated a lot of off-season buzz as a player Cleveland wanted to feature. Deshaun Watson had been good to his slot receivers in the past, so Moore was moving up during draft season. Elijah Moore ended up being a mediocre fantasy receiver who hurt lineups more than helped them, and he didn’t even come alive when Joe Flacco revived the Browns pass offense and made Amari Cooper a golden ticket to the fantasy championship in Week 16. As for Skyy Moore, even though he was given a big opportunity to be prominent in Patrick Mahomes II progressions, he flopped, which opened the door to rookie Rashee Rice, who was WR7 from Weeks 12-17.
What We’ll Do in 2024: Moore will cost a second-round pick after falling to the fifth in 2023 drafts. It’s hard to say whether taking him there is a good pick until we know who will be the quarterback for the Bears next season. Rashee Rice is also going in the second and after Moore, which is probably a better pick with less uncertainty and more room to grow.
The latest iteration of Bills offense hurt Stefon Diggs' value.
There was a cluster of wide receivers in the late first/early second that was led by Stefon Diggs, who appeared to be the surest thing in the group, which included Lamb, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Garrett Wilson, and Davante Adams. Through Week 9, he was a strong WR1 and WR4 overall, validating anyone who took him in the first round. The Bills became more conservative on offense in the second half of the season, which drug Diggs down to WR55 from Week 10-17, right in between Odell Beckham and Greg Dortch. Following the trend and benching your healthy first-round pick in the fantasy playoffs was actually the right move if you had Diggs.
What We’ll Do in 2024: Diggs is going around WR16 and #25 overall in early drafts. He finished as WR14 last season despite nosediving in the second half of the season. He expressed uncertainty about his future, so this could be a buy-low opportunity if he gets traded somewhere that will feature him like the Bills did until last year.
We still don’t know how good Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Christian Watson, and Chris Olave can be.
2022 gave us a very strong crop of rookie wide receivers who were only scratching the surface of their potential. As we head into the 2024 season, we’re still wondering how much of that potential will be realized in the near future. Aaron Rodgers went down on the first drive of 2023. While Garrett Wilson wasn’t a complete loss, finishing as WR28 and still worth starting as a WR3/Flex, that’s not what you’re looking for in the Top 15 of drafts, which is where he went on the promise of what Rodgers could do for his value. Desmond Ridder didn’t come with a lot of promise, but he couldn’t be worse than Marcus Mariota, right? He wasn’t necessarily worse, but he wasn’t better for Drake London’s value or the fate of the Falcons and head coach Arthur Smith. London was falling to the fifth round (or even later) despite clearly profiling as an ascending No. 1 receiver. He finished as WR44 and was a lineup liability in the fantasy playoffs. Christian Watson also fell to the fifth because of uncertainty about his new quarterback, Jordan Love. Love had broken out and established himself by the end of the season, but Watson missed the first three and last four games of the fantasy season. He was only WR42 in the games he did play in a crowded young passing game on the rise in Green Bay. Chris Olave was expected to be a steady target for the overly safe Derek Carr. He was the least disappointing of this group at WR21 on the season, but he was still a letdown for a player drafted in the top 25 of almost every draft.
What We’ll Do in 2024: Wilson’s ADP hasn’t dropped from 2023 levels, which seems to be a big leap of faith about Rodgers’ health and level of play. Olave’s ADP has only dropped slightly from 2023 levels. London’s ADP is actually up on the hope that comes with a new offense and, hopefully soon, a new quarterback. Watson is the only one whose 2023 performance actually dropped his ADP going into 2024. He’s a relative bargain as a seventh-round pick in early drafts. There are paths for Wilson and Olave to perform up to ADP. London needs the Falcons to add an established passer to pay off at ADP (Does Justin Fields count?). Watson is the best bet at ADP. His two best games of the season came right before his second injury.
Beware of the injury discount.
Perennial top-three pick Cooper Kupp fell out of that perch when he suffered a hamstring injury early in camp and then out of the top 20 when he aggravated the injury in joint practices with the Browns before the season. He ended up missing the first four games of the season. He didn’t miss any other games but ran hot and cold when he was on the field and ended up in the shadow of Puka Nacua. Jaylen Waddle came into the season hurt. But the injury was downplayed, and he didn’t fall in drafts. While he didn’t live up to top-25 overall ADP, he wasn’t any more disappointing than fellow uber-talented second-fiddle DeVonta Smith, who couldn’t blame injuries for underperforming fantasy draft expectations. Terry McLaurin and Treylon Burks also got hurt in camp, dropping their ADPs, but were able to play in Week 1. Neither performed up to their fantasy draft costs for various reasons.
What We’ll Do in 2024: Simplify your draft strategy. Avoid wide receivers who suffer significant injuries and miss significant time in training camp.
Brock Purdy can support two top-15 wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel fell to the late third round and Brandon Aiyuk to the fifth/sixth because of skepticism about Brock Purdy carrying over his late 2022 performance to 2023. Samuel finished as WR11 and Aiyuk as WR13. Now, the only question about Purdy is whether there’s room for his game to get even better going into year three.
What We’ll Do in 2024: Aiyuk and Samuel come with a late second price tag in early drafts, so there’s no skepticism discount to be had. If there’s any quarterback performance carryover skepticism discount to be had, it’s on Jordan Love’s targets.
Calvin Ridley was overdrafted after all.
After the Jaguars acquired Ridley during the 2022 season, fantasy drafters were on board to the tune of a fourth-round cost in early 2023 drafts and a third-round by the time the preseason started. Ridley was a hit in Week 1, and it looked like optimism would be rewarded. Instead, he was maddeningly inconsistent, only putting up two good weeks in a row once, which his WR30 ranking on the season doesn’t completely reflect when measuring what his worth should be for 2024.
What We’ll Do in 2024: Ridley could be back with the Jaguars, but if they wait until free agency, they’ll only have to give the Falcons a third-round pick instead of a second if they sign him to an extension before free agency. Ridley is falling to the fifth round in early drafts, which is reasonable if he returns to the Jaguars. If he doesn’t, that price could be a value, but it could be an overpay, depending on where he lands.
Baker Mayfield is actually good for Mike Evans' value.
We all remember what happened to Odell Beckham Jr and DJ Moore when Baker Mayfield became their quarterback, so Mike Evans predictably fell to the sixth round of drafts coming off of a year that looked like the beginning of a decline even though he had Tom Brady at quarterback. All Evans and Mayfield did together was lead the Bucs to a division title and wild card win over last year’s NFC Super Bowl representative while basically securing Evans' place in Canton and Mayfield another big payday in 2024. Evans finished as WR9 overall and one of the best 3-5 values at wide receiver.
What We’ll Do in 2024: Evans is falling to the third round in early drafts despite showing no signs of decline and appearing to be quarterback-proof. This feels like a layup.
In addition to dominating the waiver-wire/late-round gem lists, rookie receivers were generally good picks.
We’ve already covered Puka Nacua, Tank Dell, and Rashee Rice. One of the season's biggest waiver wire hits - Jayden Reed - was also a rookie. Even some of the one-week wonders who became waiver-wire fugazis - Parker Washington, Dontayvion Wicks, Michael Wilson, and Marvin Mims Jr. - were rookies. Demario Douglas, a rookie, was the only Patriots receiver worth carrying after Kendrick Bourne - one of the only veterans worth picking up on the wire - went down. Demarcus Robinson should be mentioned here as a waiver-wire playoff hero, but you get the point. The rookie wide receivers that were taken in the top half of redraft drafts - Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, and Zay Flowers - had a 50% hit rate, which is better than their veteran peers.
What We’ll Do in 2024: Be open to taking the big three rookies - Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State), Malik Nabers (LSU), and Rome Odunze (Washington) at ADP in redraft leagues, and be eager to use late-round picks on players with early opportunities like Rice and Dell from 2023 or pick them up on the wire if they show signs of emerging.
