Sunday Morning Update
Sunday Morning Update:
Urgent update: 12pm EST
Keon Coleman is a healthy scratch. This greatly upgrades Joshua Palmer into the number two option in Buffalo
Below is the update to the primary cash lineup
The one thing I continue to go back and forth on is Trey McBride. He’s going to be extremely popular, and at this point, it should be a “if you can’t beat them, join them” type mentality, but I’m going a different direction. The long-term data says not to play the expensive tight ends whether it was Kelce, Gronkowski, or even Tony Gonzalez back in 2011/2012. The production is just not going to be the same on a week-to-week basis
The $7,700 price point is in the range of where Kelce was when he had his record-breaking 2020 season. He got up to around mid-8k range that season.
At the end of the day, this all comes down to whether you believe in RJ Harvey or not. If you believe in Harvey, McBride is a much easier fit in the lineup than if Harvey is going to struggle. The reason I’m fading Harvey is for two reasons.
First, there have been reports that this could be a split backfield. Benjamin Allbright put out this earlier this week.
Second, the Chiefs have one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
Primary Cash Lineup- No Change
I went back and forth, looking at downgrading McConkey to Romeo Doubs and upgrading Higgins to Rashee Rice, but I want to fade Doubs in case he gets popular. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Green Bay for an offense that is not powerful enough to support that.
Regarding the decision of Josh Jacobs vs Christian McCaffrey, Jacobs is a strong play, there’s no denying that, and if you aren’t comfortable going up to McCaffrey, it is completely understandable, but Jacobs likely needs multiple touchdowns this week in order to hit value at $9,200, as he has not topped 100 yards this season
- QB J.J. McCarthy, MIN, $6,800
- RB Jaylen Warren, PIT, $7,000
- RB Travis Etienne Jr., JAX, $6,800
- WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $7,200
- WR Ladd McConkey, LAC, $7,500
- WR Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG, $5,800
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $5,600
- Flex RB Christian McCaffrey, SF, $10,000
- TD Tennessee, $3,100
Expected Chalk Lineup
Some small changes to the expected chalk lineup. Jaylen Warren has gotten much more popular than Chase Brown, while those savings have elevated up to Atlanta’s defense.
- QB J.J. McCarthy, MIN, $6,800
- RB R.J. Harvey, DEN, $5,800
- RB Jaylen Warren, PIT, $7,000
- WR Romeo Doubs, GB, $6,300
- WR Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG, $5,800
- WR Rashee Rice, KC, $8,200
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $7,700
- Flex RB Josh Jacobs, GB, $9,200
- TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,300
Check back around 10AM EST for any updates or final thoughts to the cash game lineup
Week 10 Recap- Loss, Season Record 2-8
This is just a rough year. The good news is that most of you have likely shifted off to playing GPPs or even moved over to DraftKings, which has been much fairer this week, given the far better pricing models. Cash games on FanDuel are just rough at the moment.
Where I’m at is accepting that there’s just some unlucky variance. The good news last week was that my number one receiver, Jaylen Waddle, had a massive day. However, when you choose to fade TreVeyon Henderson and he outscores James Cook by 22.3 points at a price point of $3,300 less, it’s going to make for an impossible day to cash. This seems to be a trend this season, where players who are popular but high-variance have been paying off, not just with good games, but must-start games.
This is one of the first weeks where I admit to myself that playing Henderson was likely the right move. Not because of Henderson, but because of the tight end upgrade to Trey McBride, who was dominant against the Seahawks.
However, if this game were played 100 times, James Cook’s 8 points were likely a bottom 5% outcome without injury. This is the second time this season that the Dolphins have derailed a cash lineup, as they did to Bijan Robinson just a few weeks ago. Since Week 5, the Dolphins have allowed 100 yards or multiple touchdowns to every running back except Robinson and Cook last week, which were the only two times that I’ve taken players against this Dolphins defense.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Bucky Irving has been ruled out. There was some optimism that he would return this week, but he’s still recovering from the foot/shoulder injury. Despite practicing earlier this week, he just was not ready to go. Rachaad White will once again get the start. While the matchup is a good one, Irving is not overly intriguing this week, given his lack of explosiveness. He’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, and Sean Tucker continues to have a role in this offense that limits White’s volume.
- Dalton Kincaid will miss this week. Khalil Shakir will likely see some additional volume, but on a non-PPR site, it’s hard to trust the Bills receiver, given he’s a low-yard-per-catch player and has just four touchdowns on the season. While Buffalo could be a good GPP play this week, it’s hard to go back to them with any level of confidence after last week, when they completely imploded offensively.
- Quentin Johnston is questionable this week with a shin injury. It seems as if he’s likely to play, but if he were to miss, Ladd McConkey would become a near must-start this week.
- Jaxson Dart will miss this week with a concussion, while Darius Slayton will also miss with a hamstring injury. Jameis Winston will get the start for the Giants. While it hurts them offensively, given the dynamic ability of Dart, it could end up helping their passing game. Dart has thrown for more than 210 yards just twice this season. Wan’Wan'Dale Robinson and Isaiah Hodgins could be a cheap player who sees some additional time this week.
- C.J. Stroud remains out with a concussion. Davis Mills will get the start this week. Mills looked more than capable last week, leading the Texans back to victory. Mills threw for 292 yards and two touchdowns, while Nico Collins had seven receptions for 136 yards last week.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. will miss this week with Appendicitis. This should only further consolidate targets to Trey McBride this week. You could see some additional volume to players like Michael Wilson, but this seems like McBride will be the top target on nearly every play. The only concern with McBride is the price at $7,700, and volatility for tight ends in general, as they’re touchdown dependent. While McBride has scored four touchdowns over the last three games, whether that is sustainable is the biggest question.
- Davante Adams is questionable with an oblique injury. If he were to miss, Puka Nacua would immediately become the top option on this slate at the receiver position.