Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares: The Jacoby Brissett Intrigue

The war of attrition rages on.

If you haven't been affected by injuries yet, how? Congrats on your other-worldly luck. The rest of us peasants are trying to keep our ships afloat with nothing more than Elmer's glue and plywood.

It's Week 7. I've reached that point where I'm regularly telling myself that all I need to do is make the tournament. Unless your league throws a little cash your way for a regular-season point total, your goal can be survival. Get enough out of your depth, the waiver wire, or a trade to give yourself enough runway to get hot. This is a game of averages. Anyone can come back to earth, just like anyone can go on a run.

I hope I can help you escape from the reality of the grind, even if it's a brief respite.

Welcome to Dreams and Nightmares. In this weekly exploration, I take you through some of the week's most consequential storylines. I might deem each a dream or a nightmare, but I suppose it's all a matter of perspective. My dream could've been your nightmare. Such is life in this infuriatingly beautiful game we play.

Let's get back on track. Injuries. They're brutal. This might be recency bias rearing its ugly head, but this week's felt especially bad. There were a couple of guys who didn't even make it through pregame warmups. We were already down some difference-making quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray? Can we call Murray a difference-making quarterback? You be the judge. More on him in a second.

On the running back front, Omarion Hampton, Bucky Irving, Trey Benson, and Chuba Hubbard were a few of the guys who sat solemnly in our IR spots.

We lost Emeka Egbuka, Marvin Harrison Jr.., Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, David Njoku, and then had a late Monday afternoon ruling on Dalton Kincaid, just for good measure.

Fantasy football is fun. We willingly do this.

I know I missed a few guys. Feel free to pencil whomever in to make this more personally relevant.

There were still dreams this week. Believe it or not. I care so much, in fact, that I'm going to walk you through some of them.

That's just the type of guy I am.

Fantasy Dream: Just How the Cardinals Drew it Up

Get it? The Cardinals' offensive coordinator is Drew Petzing?

He had a pretty rough week leading up to Arizona's trip to Indianapolis. The loss to Tennessee and the way it happened were inexcusable. He may have been slightly vindicated. By a loss, no less. That should be impossible.

I promised more on Murray, so here we go.

In Week 6, Jacoby Brissett led the Cardinals' offense to a top-10 finish in expected points added per play with +0.07. The passing game did its part, even after losing Harrison Jr. early to a concussion. Brissett's 320 passing yards were the second-most in Week 6 behind Mac Jones. His +0.13 expected points added per dropback was the 12th-best mark among quarterbacks in Week 6, despite attempting 44 passes.

In the spirit of fairness, I'm going to let Murray off the hook for his Week 5 performance against Tennessee. He was banged up. That could've impacted him. Rather, I want to look at his last full game, Week 4 vs. Seattle at home, and compare that to Brissett's effort in Indianapolis.

Murray's Week 4 Start Compared to Brissett in Week 6

You'll never hear me make definitive statements based on a one-game sample. You also might have a different method for evaluating the productivity of these two quarterbacks. That's fine. Here's how I'm interpreting these numbers.

Seattle's secondary is ailing. Entering the game against Arizona in Week 4, though, they were coming off allowing -0.10 EPA/pass against the Saints. They held Murray to -0.12 EPA/dropback, tied for 21st in Week 4. The Colts, meanwhile, held the Raiders to -0.35 EPA/pass. That was tied for the fourth-best total in Week 5. Indianapolis did lose Charvarious Ward in pregame warm-ups. That helped Brissett's case ever-so-slightly. Still, he posted some of the most efficient metrics of the week on 44 attempts.

Murray was generally average to below-average across the board in his last complete game.

The Packers' trip to the desert could end up being one of the more impactful storylines to watch in Week 7. If Brissett puts together another efficient game running Petzing's offense and the Cardinals pull an upset at home, the local Arizona radio hosts will certainly have some bye-week fodder.

Trey McBride posted his highest fantasy total of the season. Harrison Jr. looked like he was on his way to a productive day before his concussion. Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, and even Zay Jones reminded the casual fan they were on the roster.

Many of the Cardinals' offensive frustrations fell by the wayside. I wonder why?

Fantasy Nightmare: Playing Backup Running Back Roulette

I'm not sure I've ever been less convicted in a stance than I was in my Kimani Vidal preference over Hassan Haskins during last week's waiver cycle.

The usage in Week 5 told you next to nothing about a potential lead between Vidal and Haskins. The team complicated things further by signing Nyheim Hines. What would a week of gameplanning look like? I know this Dolphins matchup is a gift, but who's going to exploit it?

These were the questions I was asking myself. You can say I'm many things. You can't say I'm not transparent.

In what would become a running theme, Vidal paid off for those who rolled the dice. He was the RB6 with 21.3 Half-PPR points. He posted 3.6 rushing yards over expected, more than any other qualified back in Week 6.

Everything about these ambiguous backfields felt a little too lottery-adjacent for my liking. The insiders didn't help. It didn't matter if it was the Chargers or Cardinals, or to a lesser extent, the Giants or the Titans. Prognosticating running back usage with multiple pieces has been a nightmare. It's not always a logical process, either. Credit to the Giants. Cam Skattebo's been a catalyst for their offensive turnaround. Brian Daboll didn't get cute with the usage in New York's Thursday night upset of the defending Super Bowl champions, despite Tyrone Tracy Jr.. returning from injury.

For a much less competitive team, the question was how Tyjae Spears' return would affect Tony Pollard's usage in Tennessee. Spears handled 59.3 percent of the snaps in his season debut. Pollard's ineffectiveness on roughly 18 opportunities per game entering Week 6 indicated we might see the split shift. I guess it's back to guessing what it'll look like moving forward, with the news of Brian Callahan's firing.

I now have a few rules when it comes to ambiguous backfields. Unless the team in question employs Rico Dowdle, bank on some degree of a split that could change with each matchup. I'll also approach any sort of starter tag with skepticism and put a ton of stock in the matchup. 

Fantasy Dream: Ja'Marr Chase Has a Pulse