In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some big names -- yes, even ones that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
This is where we review my previous week's results. With the NFL's variance battling me every step of the way, my pursuit of the elusive .500 mark has been challenging. But things have been looking up in recent weeks, and Week 12 added to that. Let's review:
- I was in on Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett, who was projected to finish as QB12 against the Jaguars. I predicted he would finish inside the top 10. Brissett was QB 8. A hit. ✅
- I was out on Colts QB Daniel Jones, who was projected to finish as QB8 in a tough matchup against the Chiefs in Kansas City. I predicted he would fall outside the top 10. Jones was QB11. Close, but a hit. ✅
- I was in on Seahawks RB Ken Walker III, who was projected to finish as RB18 in a favorable matchup against the Tennessee Titans. I predicted he would outperform that spot. Walker finished as RB17. Another close call, but still a hit. ✅
- I was out on Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty, who was projected to finish as RB10 against the Browns. I thought inconsistent usage against a tough Cleveland defense would keep him from delivering RB1 numbers. Jeanty had other ideas. He finished as RB4 for the week. A miss. ❌
- I was in on Eagles WR A.J. Brown, who's fallen short of expectations all season. He was projected to finish as WR19 against the Cowboys last week, but I felt all the pieces were in place for him to exceed that spot. Brown finished the day as WR5. A hit. ✅
- I was out on Packers WR Christian Watson, who was projected to finish as WR24 against the Vikings. I questioned whether his target share would support that. Watson got a season-high seven targets, but didn't do much with them. He finished as WR33. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Patriots TE Hunter Henry, who was projected to finish as TE13 against a Bengals defense that's been the most generous to the position all year. I predicted Henry would finish in TE1 territory. He was the TE1 overall. This was a big hit. ✅
- I was out on Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson, who was projected to finish as TE8 against the Eagles, a tough matchup for him and Dak Prescott. I predicted he would fall outside TE1 territory. He finished as TE9. Yes, I should have played it safe and gone with just falling short of his projection, but I didn't. And it was a miss. ❌
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Panthers QB Bryce Young was projected to finish as QB18 against a San Francisco defense that's struggled to slow opposing quarterbacks for more than a month. But they slowed Young, who finished as QB22. A miss. ❌
That's right, I followed up last week's season-high five-hit outing with a new season-high, six-hit week. While I'll take full credit for believing in Brown, I'd like to acknowledge the fantasy gods after some very close calls went my way.
Here's where we stand after 12 weeks:
Week 12: 6 hits; 3 misses.
Season: 53 hits; 55 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. With consecutive winning weeks, I'm batting .490. Let's carry this momentum into Week 13.
One more time: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Jaxson Dart, NY Giants @ New England
Dart cleared concussion protocol, the Giants announced Thursday, and he'll return to the lineup for Monday night's game in Foxboro. He missed the previous two games due to a concussion sustained in a Week 10 loss to the Bears.
An Offensive Rookie of the Year contender, the first-round pick has completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 1,417 yards, 10 scores, and three interceptions.
More importantly, he's also been an elite rusher, carrying the ball 57 times for 317 yards and seven scores.
From the time he took over as the starter in Week 4 until he was hurt in Week 10, Dart was the QB1 overall in fantasy, averaging 23.5 points per game, with his usage as a runner being a driving force behind his success.
And that's an issue.
He returns to a 2-10 team mired in a six-game losing streak. The Giants haven't won since their Week 6 upset of the Philadelphia Eagles, as they recently became the first team to be officially eliminated from playoff contention.
Given the circumstances, The Athletic's Dan Duggan and Charlotte Carroll contend the biggest storyline in New York this week is how the team will manage Dart's aggressiveness as a runner. Dart has been examined for a concussion four times this year, including the preseason, before suffering a confirmed concussion against the Bears.
Under previous head coach Brian Daboll, who was fired after that loss to Chicago, Dart was used on designed runs more than any other QB in the league. Daboll typically encouraged the rookie's bold running style, saying he trusted Dart to make the right decisions on the field.
But it was current interim coach Mike Kafka calling those designed runs. It'll be interesting to see if Kafka tones that down.
Dart, meanwhile, has been mostly defiant in response to suggestions that he practice more self-preservation when running the ball.
"I'm going to play the game the way I want to play the game," Dart said days before getting injured.
Dart has seven rushing TDs in his seven starts. He ran for over 50 yards in five of them.
I'm expecting Dart to continue Dart-ing.
The Patriots are in the top 10 in passing yards and touchdowns allowed on the season, and they have surrendered the third-most pass TDs since Week 8. Better still, as CBSSports.com's Jamey Eisenberg notes, they've allowed three of the past four opposing quarterbacks to score at least 21.3 Fantasy points.
Dart is a strong start in a contest in which the Giants could be in catch-up mode.
Bottom line: Dart's Footballguys projection calls for a QB14 finish. Even if they dial back on the designed runs, Dart is still likely to use his legs if scoring opportunities arise. I'll say he outperforms the projection.
Out: C.J. Stroud, Houston @ Indianapolis
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans announced Friday that quarterback C.J. Stroud has cleared the concussion protocol and will start Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts.
Stroud suffered a concussion against the Denver Broncos in Week 9 and has missed three games. The Texans lost only the Broncos game during Stroud's absence while going undefeated in backup quarterback Davis Mills' three starts, which included game-winning drives against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans.
Mills threw for 879 passing yards with five touchdowns and only one interception in his stint. Mills was QB6 while scoring 18.9 points per game over that stretch.
The Texans are 3-5 with Stroud starting this year. He's completed 66.5 percent of his passes for 1,702 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions.
He was QB14 over the first eight games, scoring an average of 16.7 points per game.
The Colts, meanwhile, are middle of the pack when it comes to defending opposing quarterbacks. They've given up an average of 15.6 points per game, the 11th-fewest, to the position.
While Indy's pass rush hasn't been consistent, the Colts still rank sixth in the league in sacks and pressure, and their secondary, with newcomer Sauce Gardner, Charvarius Ward, and Kenny Moore II at cornerback, and starting safeties Nick Cross and Cam Bynum, is now considered one of the best in the league.
Bottom line: Stroud's Footballguys projection calls for a QB13 finish with 18.5 points. I think he'll fall short of that outcome in his first game back against a tough pass defense.
Running Back
In: Kyren Williams, LA Rams @ Carolina
As Footballguy Devin Knotts noted in his Week 13 Rushing Matchups, Williams has not had the volume that he typically has had in prior years, but he has had one of his most productive seasons in 2025.
How productive?
He's up to 796 rushing yards so far this season on 170 carries. Williams, who's scored nine touchdowns (six rushing, three receiving), is also RB9 on the season, averaging 16 points per game.
But he's had 15 or more carries in just one of his last eight games, as the Rams' passing attack continues to be the identity of this offense.
And Williams hasn't been a major contributor there.
According to Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason, Williams hasn't hit a double-digit percentage target share since his 21 percent share in Week 5 against the 49ers. That's six games without a 10 percent target share.
The passing attack is clicking, but the defense -- often overlooked -- has quietly been just as effective.
As Fantrax's Ray Kuhn suggests, it's a script that has worked well all season, and that should repeat itself in Week 13. The defense slows down Bryce Young and the Carolina offense while Matthew Stafford gets Los Angeles out to a big lead. "While Williams will play a role in building that lead," Kuhn added, "the expectation is that he'll also help to maintain and control that lead."
Blake Corum, however, has also been part of that in recent weeks.
Nonetheless, the Panthers are allowing, on average, 4.7 yards per carry -- which also happens to be what Williams is averaging per carry.
Every running back has at least 80 yards in their last five games against Carolina, and the Panthers have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to the position.
Per Knotts, injuries have been an issue for the Panthers. Both starting linebackers -- Christian Rozeboom and Trevin Wallace -- have been out. Wallace will return this week, but he'll likely be less than 100 percent. Adding to the intrigue, safety Tre'von Moehrig is suspended for this game. Knotts wrote: "Moehrig is an excellent run-stopper at safety and a great last line of defense for the Panthers."
Bottom line: Williams's Footballguys projection calls for an RB18 finish with 14.8 points. I expect him to exceed that number.
