Let's talk about numbers. I love them. I am a CPA by practice who creates fantasy football content in my fleeting spare time. My world is numbers.
At its base, fantasy football is a number accumulation game. Points are all that matter. Points come from two primary methods: volume, doing things a lot, over and over, and efficiency, doing things very well when given the opportunity.
Despite my love for numbers in all areas, they are only one part of my analysis methodology.
I have grown up around the game; my uncle was a football coach, and I have watched a lot of football. My hometown could have been central casting for Friday Night Lights. My alma mater is in the Ohio high school semifinals. They lost in the finals last year. The team that beat them was banned from the 2025 playoffs for illegally recruiting. It's a whole thing.
I love digging into scheme fits and watching tape to project future roles.
If you have read my work, you also know I love a good narrative. I firmly believe it matters. Matt Waldman discussed emotion much better than I ever could in another of my favorite pieces. I am fortunate to be in the position I am in. Developing a relationship with Matt is one of the highlights of my journey. Matt is a mentor and the sharpest football mind I have had the opportunity to experience.
Much like Matt's introduction, I have no intention of speaking negatively about statistical analysis. It is important. We play a statistical game.
My particular thought revolves around how often we use numbers to see what we want to see. It will not take long on a journey down the fantasy football rabbit hole to know that we love rookies. Rookies are a mystery box. They could be anything. They could even be the players who are so often on top of the depth chart—the players who are earning fantasy points. The players are winning games.
Whenever I see a number, I like to ask questions about it. Volume is pretty straightforward. Twenty rush attempts are 20 rush attempts. I lean hard on predicting volume. If we can reliably understand who coaches are going to put in position to accumulate stats and thus fantasy points, a significant battle is won.
Efficiency is trickier. Efficiency needs context. It is driven by volume. Yards per rush needs both rushes and yards. Two running backs could rush for 53 yards. One does it in 18 attempts, the other only needs 7. The player who did it on seven is clearly better, right? But what if one player was tasked with chipping away at the heart of the defense on early downs and given the ball to run out the clock and protect a lead? What if the other accumulated their yards on a clear passing down well after the game was decided, or before halftime in a prevent defense situation?
One of the current gold standards for efficiency, particularly in fantasy football, is yards per route run. There has been a lot of great work to show the value of this metric. It makes all the sense in the world. Players who gain yards on the routes they run are essential to their offenses. They are also efficient with their opportunities. It is efficiency stacked on efficiency.
But, like any story, it is only a part of the conversation. I can point out how Jameis Winston is dominating in yards per route run with 33 yards. He ran one route, a trick play, and turned it into a 33-yard touchdown. Removing my tongue from my cheek, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua are two meaningful players who show the value of the metric. Smith-Njigba is at 4.42 YPRR while Nacua is 3.46.
It is not surprising to see that a rookie who performs well in this valuable metric can create quite a hype opportunity. Luther Burden III (18th among wide receivers at 2.32), Brashard Smith (1st among running backs at 2.27), and Terrance Ferguson (6th among tight ends at 2.23) are three of those players with hype trains—rookies with elite metrics.
I get it.
I like to ask questions.
Burden, Smith, and Ferguson are coached by three of the sharpest offensive minds in football: Ben Johnson, Andy Reid, and Sean McVay. Why are they not being asked to run more routes?
Why are we not hyped about Jackson Hawes, George Holani, Devontez Walker, or Nikko Remigio, young players with similar metrics?
Of course, we can point to Burden and Ferguson being second-round picks in the actual NFL draft to show there are reasons to be excited about these players. And Burden, in particular, is getting a larger opportunity.
Unpacking some history of YPRR shows that a particular player will perform well in the metric. I do not mean to pick on Laviska Shenault Jr, but he is the poster child here: a player who can operate with the ball in their hands but lacks the nuance to play the position in an every-down role. Shenault posted a very strong 2.89 YPRR in 2022. Given the situations around Burden, Smith, and Ferguson, they are not far off.
Take Smith, for example. In a backfield with two veterans, Smith is not going to be asked to protect Patrick Mahomes II in complex blitz situations. His job is one thing: run with the ball. When he is in the game, it is a designed pass to him. He catches it, runs for seven yards, then returns to the bench. A YPRR legend is born. But should we not be concerned that he is not getting a meaningful opportunity to learn and improve in the other aspects?
Ferguson is in a similar situation. Surrounded by veteran tight ends who understand how to do all the things that make the tight end position. Ferguson can come in, run a specific play designed for him, then watch the veterans.
I hear your argument already. "Jeff, is it not a good thing the coaches are designing plays to put the ball in these players' hands?" It is a valid point. Rashid Shaheed is a good example there, a player who posted a strong YPRR as a rookie in 2022 who grew into a larger role. There are also myriad examples of players like Shenault who were never asked to grow into larger roles.
The other side of using a metric to say a player is good is the natural progression that it also says players are bad. This fails to account for players who are getting an opportunity to learn all the things that go into a position. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was 146th at 1.32 as a rookie in 2023. George Pickens was 165th in YPRR as a rookie in 2022, with just 1.38. They rank first and second in yards this season. Trey McBride was 330th as a rookie in 2022, with just 0.84 YPRR.
The three most valuable pass catchers in fantasy football were horrible according to this metric as rookies. They became valuable because they learned how to perform in the other aspects of the game, the angles that unlocked volume. Leaning too hard on a metric can introduce bias.
I often think efficiency creates the idea of a false positive. Too often, we look at players in part-time roles with efficiency metrics and declare the coaches are flawed. If only this player were given an opportunity. Many role players who exhibit elite efficiency struggle to maintain when given heavy volume. Especially repeatedly week-to-week. In reality, the sharpest minds in football know how to use their personnel.
Trying to figure out what a team is actually doing can be difficult enough without introducing the idea of what they should be doing.
And now, The Roundup.
Blind Resume
| Player | Rookie YPRR | 2025 YPRR |
|---|---|---|
| A | 1.32 | 4.42 |
| B | 1.38 | 2.6 |
| C | 1.24 | 2.12 |
| D | 1.24 | 2.09 |
| E | 0.84 | 1.76 |
| F | 1.18 | 1.74 |
More fun with YPRR. Can you name these players?
Stats Of The Week
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle - 1,313 Receiving Yards, 80 Receptions
Smith-Njigba broke the Seahawks single-season receiving yard record, previously held by DK Metcalf at 1,303 yards. He has played 11 games. He needs 20 catches to get to his own team record of 100, a mark he set in 2024 and shares with Tyler Lockett.
His 1,313 yards are the third most through the first 11 games of a season, trailing Josh Gordon's 1,400 in 2013 and Tyreek Hill's 1,324 in 2023.
Smith-Njigba is on pace for 2,029 receiving yards. Calvin Johnson holds the NFL record at 1,964.
Dak Prescott, Dallas - 34,378 Passing Yards
Prescott became the Cowboys franchise leader in passing yards, moving past Tony Romo's 34,183. He is 12 touchdown passes behind Romo as the franchise's leader in that category.
Prescott added a rushing touchdown in the Cowboys' 24-21 comeback win over the Eagles. That score moved him into a tie with Robert Newhouse for the seventh most in team history at 31.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore - 12,294 Rushing Yards, 115 Rushing Touchdowns
Henry jumped from 15th to 12th on the career rushing list, passing Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, and Marcus Allen. He is 19 yards from passing Jim Brown for 11th place. Tony Dorsett is in 10th place, with 12,739.
Henry had two rushing touchdowns against the Jets. It is the 30th time in his career that he has had a multiple-touchdown game, which trails only Emmitt Smith (36) and LaDainian Tomlinson (38).
Henry's 115 career rushing touchdowns are the fifth most in NFL history, five behind Adrian Peterson's 120. Marcus Allen has 123. Tomlinson is second at 145. Smith's record is 164.
Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas - 50 Rushing Yards, 8 Receptions, 58 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving Touchdown
Jeanty set a Raiders team record with his fourth receiving touchdown, the most by a Raiders rookie running back. Ray Ramsey has the NFL record for a rookie back, catching eight in 1947. Jeanty's four ties multiple players for the 13th most by a rookie back. The Raiders team record by a rookie, regardless of position, is seven by Raymond Chester in 1970.
Jeanty has 37 receptions on the season, one behind Marcus Allen for the most by a Raiders rookie running back. Jeanty's total is the tenth most by any Raiders rookie, and he could climb as high as third, where Hunter Renfrow had 49. Teammate Brock Bowers has the team record of 112, set in 2024, while Amari Cooper had 72 in 2015. Saquon Barkley holds the NFL record for a rookie running back, posting 91 in his 2018 rookie season.
Jeanty is the 13th player in NFL history with 600+ rushing yards, 4+ rushing touchdowns, 200+ receiving yards, and 4+ receiving touchdowns as a rookie. Applying a filter of 35 receptions drops that list to ten.
Jeanty's eight touchdowns tie J.D. Smith for the second most by a rookie in Raiders history. Allen had 14 in his 1982 rookie season.
Chase Brown, Cincinnati - 107 Rushing Yards, 130 Scrimmage Yards
Brown recorded his fifth straight game of 100+ scrimmage yards, tying a team record he set first in 2024. A.J. Green, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Cedric Benson are the other Bengals with 100 scrimmage yards in five consecutive games. Brown's 2024 streak started after a 94-yard game against the Ravens and ended with a 91-yard game against the Broncos. The Bengals play Baltimore in Week 13.
George Pickens, Dallas - 146 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving Touchdown
Pickens has 140+ yards and a touchdown in each of the last two weeks. He is the first player since Tyreek Hill in October 2023 to hit those marks in consecutive games. One more game would move him into a tie with five other players. Calvin Johnson is the only player with four straight 140+ yard games with a touchdown.
Pickens has 1,054 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. It is the 39th 1,000-yard season in Cowboys history. Pickens is on pace for 1,629 receiving yards. CeeDee Lamb holds the Cowboys record at 1,749. Eight touchdowns tie multiple players for the 26th most in Cowboys history. Dez Bryant holds the team record at 16.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit - 500 Career Receptions
St. Brown became the youngest player in NFL history to hit 500 career receptions at 26 years, 30 days old. He broke the previous mark set by Justin Jefferson earlier in 2025 at 26 years, 90 days old, a mark Jefferson shared with Larry Fitzgerald. Ja'Marr Chase is in a position to reset this mark yet again. He needs 22 receptions and does not turn 25 until March.
The Running Back Trinity of Awesomeness Section
Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, and Jahmyr Gibbs have separated themselves at the top of the fantasy leaderboard. The Trinity is accomplishing weekly statistical milestones worth their own section. What did they do this week?
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis - 58 Rushing Yards, 2 Receptions, 8 Receiving Yards
Quick, tell your league mates that Taylor has three weeks of fewer than eight fantasy points over the last four. Of course, those games sandwich his season-high point total and include his bye week. It says everything that a 66-yard scrimmage week against a strong defense is a disappointment, considering 66 scrimmage yards project to 1,122 over a 17-game season.
Taylor has 1,197 yards on the season, the 36th most through the first 11 games of a season.
Taylor's "down" weeks over the last four weeks are tongue-in-cheek, but it is worth noting that his schedule projects to get more difficult with two games against the Texans and the Seahawks upcoming.
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco
McCaffrey plays on Monday Night. More below!
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit - 219 Rushing Yards, 2 Rushing Touchdowns, 11 Receptions, 45 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving Touchdown
Gibbs became the first player in NFL history with 200+ rushing yards, 2+ rushing touchdowns, 10+ receptions, and 1+ receiving touchdowns.
When a player does something for the first time, we peel back the layers to find the closest comparable performance. Marshall Faulk had a 220-2 / 7-41-1 line against the Saints in Week 17 of 2000. LaDainian Tomlinson posted a 220-3 / 11-51-0 game against Denver in Week 13 of 2002.
Gibbs averaged 65 rushing yards, .7 touchdowns, 3.8 receptions, and 18.7 receiving yards over the first six games. Over his last five games, he's at 112.2 rushing yards, 1.2 rushing touchdowns, five receptions, and 53.4 receiving yards - a 17-game pace of 1,907 rushing yards, 20.4 rushing touchdowns, 85 receptions, 908 receiving yards, and 6.8 receiving touchdowns.
Jim Brown and Marshall Faulk shared the NFL record of games with 130+ rushing yards, 2+ rushing touchdowns, and 30+ receiving yards in a season, with three. Gibbs has three in his last five games. He has 561 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns, 25 receptions, 267 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns over those five games. The only other players with a five-game stretch of 500-6 / 25-250-2 are Faulk, Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, and Steven Jackson.