It's difficult to react without overreacting. It's equally difficult to trust your process when circumstances outside your control prove you wrong. But that's what makes fantasy football so fun and so frustrating. Do the math: over a hundred plays every game, each a tangle of 22 athletes in motion, repeated week after week. And yet we strut into the season brazenly certain that we've got it all figured out.
Biases infiltrate our analysis much more than most are willing to admit. Let's look at Quentin Johnston, for instance.
He entered the league as one of the most polarizing prospects in years: big, fast, raw, and reliant on manufactured touches at TCU. Supporters saw a great athlete who could develop into an unstoppable weapon. His detractors saw a raw project whose game wouldn't translate to the next level.
After a rookie season marred by drops, poor separation, and missed opportunities, the detractors claimed victory. Memes and cruel jokes littered social media at Johnston's expense.
In Year 2, with a similar role and usage, Johnston looked sharper and more dynamic. After just 431 yards and two touchdowns in his rookie season, Johnston posted 711 and eight scores in his sophomore campaign. A breakout.
Rather than accepting that he had taken a step in his development, his critics doubled down, nitpicking every metric and attributing his success to defensive breakdowns.
Despite being a first-rounder who just broke out at age 23, the collective opinion on Johnston was that he had already peaked. His WR70 ADP entering 2024 rose only to WR67 the following year.
Johnston opened this season by scoring two touchdowns in Week 1. "His defender fell on the first touchdown. Busted coverage on the second." He caught a 60-yard touchdown in Week 2. "The safety got caught sleeping. Good play design." In Week 3, Johnston drew coverage from Patrick Surtain II, one of the league's best corners, and consistently beat him. In Week 4, he had his best game of the season. He caught 8-of-13 targets for 98 yards and a touchdown. He ran a savvy stutter-go that forced his defender to bite before getting behind him and grabbing a contested deep shot over a safety for a 36-yard score.
Johnston's detractors have run out of excuses. He leads the Chargers in targets, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and he's emerged as a true primary option. Overlooking the small sample size, he's pacing for over 1,400 receiving yards. And yet, somehow, his breakout will likely be met with quiet indifference.
In hindsight, why did it take so long to get here? Why was his coffin nailed closed after a disappointing rookie season? Why was his Year 2 breakout written off as a fluke? I think it's as simple as people wanting to be right. Or maybe even terrified of being wrong. They were right about Quentin Johnston after his rookie year, so why would they possibly admit to being wrong about things they could simply explain away?
Looking at Quentin Johnston's career, I can't help but think of Marvin Harrison Jr., and especially what we saw this week. Harrison is another big-bodied receiver who dominated college-level talent. His rookie season was filled with highs and lows. That carried into the start of Year 2. But his young career was perfectly encapsulated in Week 4's Thursday Night Football game.
He struggled mightily early in the game. Two passes thrown his way were intercepted, both on him. His pain on the sidelines was apparent to anyone with a smidge of empathy. Wide-eyed, he sat alone on the bench under the stadium roar and primetime lights. And due to the magnification of an island game, social media was ripe with jokes. Photoshops of Harrison working at a fast-food restaurant. Unflattering comparisons to his Hall-of-Fame father. Emphatic claims that he was a bust.
After a rough first half, Harrison turned it on after halftime. He caught a grown-man contested touchdown that pulled the Cardinals within a score. You could feel the relief through the screen as he dropped to a knee after the catch.
The cheers for Harrison's late-game heroics didn't come close to the jeers from his early-game struggles.
Johnston and Harrison have two different stories but similar lessons. We become anchored in our own biases, often to our own detriment. The negativity hurled at struggling players often drowns out the applause they actually deserve.
By re-ranking every fantasy-relevant player every week, I'm forced to confront those biases. Players I liked in the preseason may not be doing well, and I'm forced to move them down in my rankings. Players I didn't have faith in have proven me wrong, and I have no choice but to move them up.
I could cling to my biases, cherry-pick moments, and make memes at players' expense. People on social media love that. But we often forget that these players are more than a number in our fantasy football app or pixels on our screens. These are real people figuring out this thing called life with the rest of us. Some pick it up quickly. Some need some extra time. Some think they've figured it out, only to revert to their old ways. As our Sigmund Bloom likes to say, "You can be right and wrong on the same player in the same season." And as our society becomes more connected and more reactionary, we'll start being right and wrong on the same player in the same game.
Through four weeks, these rest-of-season rankings are starting to stabilize. Still, chaos lurks everywhere. Injuries, usage trends, and depth chart shakeups will be the biggest things to monitor.
As always, please check out Bob Henry's Rest-of-Season projections for a different opinion on these player values.
Now let's dive in, starting with the quarterbacks.
Quarterback Rest-of-Season Rankings
No injuries or major depth chart shakeups are a good thing at this point in the season. With bye weeks coming next week, we can focus on that instead of changing quarterback impacts. Slight changes this week reflect the growing consistency (or lack thereof) from certain quarterbacks.
- QB1 - Josh Allen (+1) - Through two weeks, Allen is the top-scoring fantasy quarterback. He's also healthy. The margin between Allen and Lamar Jackson is razor-thin. Expect them to flip back and forth a few times throughout this season.
- QB2 - Lamar Jackson (-1) - Jackson sat out the end of Week 4's game with a hamstring injury. As of now, there's no cause for major concern, as reports said that he would have played through it in a closer matchup. But any potential limitations to Jackson's rushing in the immediate future make Allen the more attractive option in fantasy.
- QB3 - Jalen Hurts
- QB4 - Jayden Daniels
- QB5 - Patrick Mahomes II
- QB6 - Baker Mayfield (+2) - We've yet to see a ceiling game from Mayfield this year, but he's been as steady as they come. He's been a top-12 quarterback in three of four games so far this year, averaging the eighth-most points per game. Despite concerns about regression and injuries to his teammates, he continues to find a way to hang in games and accumulate fantasy points. His rise in the ranks is mostly due to Kyler Murray's struggles and the short-term absence of Joe Alt, which impacts Justin Herbert. He's in a tier with those ranked below him as a back-end QB1.
- QB7 - Justin Herbert (-1)
- QB8 - Caleb Williams (+1)
- QB9 - Daniel Jones (+1)
- QB10 - Jordan Love (+1)
- QB11 - Dak Prescott (+1)
- QB12 - Justin Fields (+1)
- QB13 - Brock Purdy (+4) - Despite being his first game back from a turf toe injury, Purdy looked spry. He was a top-ten fantasy quarterback in Week 4 and is tied with Justin Herbert as the per-game QB11. As his receivers heal up and George Kittle makes his return from IR, Purdy will likely climb these rankings even more.
- QB14 - Kyler Murray (-7) - The allure of Murray's rushing upside is hard to ignore. The 37.0 rushing yards per game he's averaging are the most since his ACL tear. But it simply isn't translating to fantasy production. He's been admittedly unlucky. He's third in rushing attempts among all quarterbacks but has yet to score a single touchdown. But some of the passing metrics are concerning. His 43.4% success rate this year is the lowest of his career. He's averaging just 32.5 pass attempts per game, and his average of 185.5 passing yards is the worst of his career. He ranks among the bottom half of starting quarterbacks in completion percentage above expectation and EPA/dropback. Simply put, this is a low-volume and inefficient passing offense. Murray's rushing gives him a nice weekly ceiling. But sitting at QB19 through four weeks, his struggles are hard to ignore.
- QB15 - Drake Maye (-1)
- QB16 - Jared Goff (-1)
- QB17 - Bo Nix (-1)
- QB18 - Jaxson Dart (+9) - Despite pulling out a huge upset win, Dart only threw for 111 yards and a touchdown. However, his fantasy value will lie in his rushing. Dart quietly had 1,498 yards and 12 touchdowns as a rusher over the last three years at Ole Miss. And in his NFL debut, he amassed 54 and a score. Expect to see Dart's role change weekly as Brian Daboll works to develop him. While his ceiling might be capped slightly with the loss of Malik Nabers, the rushing element to his game puts him in the streamer discussion.
- QB19 - Trevor Lawrence
- QB20 - C.J. Stroud
- QB21 - J.J. McCarthy (+5) - Well, talk of a quarterback change can be put to rest after Carson Wentz sputtered his way to two inceptions, a fumble, and six sacks in an embarrassing international loss to the Steelers. If McCarthy can return for Week 5, it'll be tough sledding against a stout Cleveland pass rush. But he'll start, and that's typically enough to warrant consideration in superflex leagues.
- QB22 - Sam Darnold (+2)
- QB23 - Matthew Stafford
- QB24 - Michael Penix Jr. (-2)
- QB25 - Bryce Young (-4)
- QB26 - Cameron Ward (-8) - Ward has put some nice moments on his resume year, but unfortunately, minimal fantasy production. Hopes for rushing upside have been dashed. His 10.5 rushing yards per game is 25th among quarterbacks. His 153.5 passing yards per game rank 32nd. He is the per-game QB37 through Week 4. His work ethic and accountability are desirable traits to build a franchise around. But the Titans are still a ways away from being a viable fantasy environment for a young quarterback.
- QB27 - Geno Smith (+1)
- QB28 - Aaron Rodgers (-3)
- QB29 - Spencer Rattler
- QB30 - Tua Tagovailoa (+1)
- QB31 - Jake Browning (+3)
- QB32 - Joe Flacco (+3)
- QB33 - Joe Burrow (-3)
- QB34 - Russell Wilson (-1)
- QB35 - Mac Jones (New)