The latest knee-jerk reaction revolves around the Steelers making "the worst trade in NFL history" to swap DK Metcalf for George Pickens. Yes, we did see Pickens put on a massive performance on Monday Night Island. However, that came in the same game Pickens sat out the first series after rumors of an all-night casino binge. Yes, the stats will dramatically favor Pickens over Metcalf. The structures are night-and-day different. Dallas is built to play weekly shootouts. Pittsburgh is built to avoid them. The Steelers had Pickens in their building for three seasons. They knew the pending contract situation. They knew the player they would be investing in. Pickens' season high in Pittsburgh was five touchdowns. Metcalf has five touchdowns through ten games. It is disingenuous not to recognize that Metcalf would very likely be posting similar production in Dallas's environment, without the casino binges. It is doubtful that Pittsburgh is losing as much sleep as the recent media cycle suggests it should. Or losing as much sleep as Pickens.
Week 11 saw a massive performance from Tetairoa McMillan, a franchise record from Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a pending suspension for Ja'Marr Chase, a significant injury to Drake London, and a career milestone for Davante Adams. How did the rest of the league shake out?
The Target Report
I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below categorizes these offenses.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share
| Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % | Snaps | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Rams | 27 | Puka Nacua | 8 | 7-75-0 | 29.63% | 34 | 67% |
| Davante Adams | 8 | 1-1-1 | 29.63% | 44 | 86% | ||
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2-14-1 | 7.41% | 35 | 69% | ||
| Miami | 20 | Jaylen Waddle | 7 | 3-52-0 | 35.00% | 47 | 84% |
| De'Von Achane | 5 | 5-45-0 | 25.00% | 45 | 80% | ||
| Greg Dulcich | 4 | 2-18-0 | 20.00% | 30 | 54% | ||
| Philadelphia | 27 | A.J. Brown | 11 | 7-49-0 | 40.74% | 67 | 93% |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 1-8-0 | 18.52% | 70 | 97% | ||
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 2-24-0 | 18.52% | 65 | 90% |
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Nacua and Adams dominated looks, while five other players saw two targets but no more. Adams hit 1,000 career receptions, moving into a tie with Hines Ward for the 16th most receptions in NFL history. Nacua has still been excellent for fantasy, but since returning from injury, he has averaged 6.3 receptions and 78 yards. His numbers were 10.4 receptions and 117.6 yards before the Week 6 injury. Parkinson has touchdowns in consecutive games and has topped 40 yards in two of his last four games. The Rams started utilizing tight ends heavily following Nacua's injury. The four (Parkinson, Terrance Ferguson, Tyler Higbee, and Davis Allen) have averaged 7.75 receptions, 91.5 yards, and 1.25 touchdowns, a 17-game pace of 132 receptions, 1,556 yards, and 21 touchdowns. The Rams have a potential shootout with Tampa Bay in Week 12; both teams' defenses have been strong against the run.
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The Dolphins continued to funnel targets to Waddle and Achane. The two have pulled 48% of the targets since Tyreek Hill was injured in Week 4. Waddle's 3-52 line was his second-lowest since Hill's injury. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was sitting around a 65% snap share immediately following Tyreek Hill's injury. That dropped to 27% in Week 11 in favor of Cedrick Wilson Jr.. Dulcich continues to operate as the third option, though his current volume keeps him out of fantasy relevance. Miami has a bye in Week 12.
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Elite fantasy production is the combination of volume and efficiency. Even in Brown's best years, the Eagles' offense never had the passing volume of the other top-end receivers. Brown was elite in efficiency. To be frank, he no longer looks like the player capable of producing elite efficiency. He should still be in his prime production years; the blame may fall entirely on the offensive scheme. The narrative is that the Eagles are not involving him, and he has two outlier games (one target in Week 1 and three in Week 10) that happened to come in Primetime Island games. However, he is averaging 8.7 targets per game outside of those two, which would be the second-highest of his career for a season. Despite that target volume, he is averaging a career low 62.28 yards per game in those games. The weather, Brown's squeaky wheel game, and game control against a Lions team that struggled badly offensively combined to hold the rest of the passing attack down. The Eagles play the worst pass defense in the NFL, Dallas, in Week 12. It may be the last chance to feel any comfort level about starting Brown in the fantasy playoffs.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share
| Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % | Snaps | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 29 | Drake London | 9 | 7-119-0 | 31.03% | 61 | 92% |
| Darnell Mooney | 7 | 3-34-0 | 24.14% | 61 | 92% | ||
| Bijan Robinson | 5 | 4-39-0 | 17.24% | 56 | 85% | ||
| Dallas | 32 | George Pickens | 11 | 9-144-1 | 34.38% | 45 | 67% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 5-66-1 | 21.88% | 49 | 73% | ||
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 4-16-1 | 15.63% | 42 | 63% | ||
| Detroit | 36 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 12 | 2-42-0 | 33.33% | 57 | 97% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 8 | 5-107-0 | 22.22% | 43 | 73% | ||
| Jameson Williams | 7 | 4-88-1 | 19.44% | 56 | 95% | ||
| Las Vegas | 39 | Brock Bowers | 12 | 7-72-0 | 30.77% | 58 | 97% |
| Tre Tucker | 8 | 4-47-1 | 20.51% | 58 | 97% | ||
| Ashton Jeanty | 8 | 6-27-0 | 20.51% | 44 | 73% | ||
| Pittsburgh | 29 | Kenneth Gainwell | 8 | 7-81-2 | 27.59% | 41 | 63% |
| DK Metcalf | 8 | 5-49-0 | 27.59% | 56 | 86% | ||
| Darnell Washington | 5 | 4-67-0 | 17.24% | 46 | 71% | ||
| Seattle | 42 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 12 | 9-105-0 | 28.57% | 70 | 83% |
| AJ Barner | 11 | 10-70-0 | 26.19% | 73 | 87% | ||
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 3-23-0 | 16.67% | 68 | 81% | ||
| Tampa Bay | 27 | Emeka Egbuka | 9 | 5-40-0 | 33.33% | 66 | 94% |
| Cade Otton | 5 | 2-28-0 | 18.52% | 68 | 97% | ||
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 4-54-0 | 18.52% | 46 | 66% | ||
| Washington | 28 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | 8 | 7-74-1 | 28.57% | 50 | 75% |
| Zach Ertz | 8 | 4-42-0 | 28.57% | 50 | 75% | ||
| Chris Moore | 5 | 2-28-0 | 17.86% | 55 | 82% |
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Week 11 was brutal for the Falcons' rest of the season outlook. Michael Penix Jr.'s season is over, while London injured his knee and has already been ruled out for Week 12's contest against a league-average Saints defense. Kirk Cousins takes over the passing attack. Mooney has been dreadful in 2025, but he was a favored target of Cousins early in 2024, averaging 8.2 targets, five receptions, 74.3 yards, and scoring five touchdowns in nine games from Week 2 to Week 10. He should serve as the top option. Keep an eye on David Sills V, who has served as the WR3 for the last couple of weeks and had a strong rapport with Cousins throughout camp.
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Pickens had been productive since CeeDee Lamb returned in Week 7, but nowhere near his play with Lamb out of the lineup. That changed in Week 11, with a massive game that could have been more if the script had asked. He is on pace for over 1,500 yards. Dallas will likely franchise him and work on a long-term extension following the season. Lamb would have followed in fantasy production, but dropped an open fourth-down pass at the goal line. Dallas sees a Philadelphia defense that has improved rapidly since the trade deadline. The game could shoot out, though the Vegas total of 47.5 anticipates the Eagles' defense playing well.
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Speaking of the excellent Eagles defense. The Lions have had better days than their Week 11 matchup against Philadelphia. St. Brown became the 39th player in NFL history to see 12 targets or more and catch two passes or fewer. No one has done that since Josh Doctson in 2017. Gibbs has three career games over 60 receiving yards, and two of those happened in his last four games. Williams has scored in three straight contests, averaging 91 yards per game. He is the overall WR2 in fantasy during that stretch. Brock Wright took 49 snaps compared to just one for Ross Dwelley, the only other tight end who played, seeing four targets. Wright was already a quiet redzone threat, and the bar for back-end TE1 status has plummeted with the injuries around the league. Detroit should have a better day at home against a Giants defense that ranks in the bottom ten of pass defense EPA.
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If you ignore Week 10 against a stout Denver defense, and because we like to ignore bad games, Bowers has averaged 12.5 targets per game since returning from injury. Tyler Lockett was a buzzy sleeper for Week 11, especially given the Dallas matchup, but he backslid in snaps and targets, as did Jack Bech and Dont'e Thornton Jr.. The Raiders opted to play Bowers a season-high 97% of snaps and go with two tight ends as base personnel, with Michael Mayer at 77%. Jeanty has tied three others for the second-most receptions by a Raiders rookie running back at 29. He needs nine more catches to get to Marcus Allen's 38 for the most by a Raiders rookie runner. The Raiders face a stout Cleveland defense in Week 12 and will likely need to rely on their passing attack.
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Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a fractured left wrist. The Steelers have yet to rule him out of Week 12, and there is some optimism he will be able to start. Mason Rudolph is the next man up. Metcalf has his best game in the last three weeks, at 49 yards, which says a lot. The Steelers have had seven different players lead the team in targets in a 2025 game, while six different players have led the team in yards. Roman Wilson clearly played ahead of Calvin Austin III as the WR2, catching a touchdown. Washington saw his most snaps since Week 6. The Steelers play a league-average Bears defense in Week 12. If Rudolph starts, the team could pivot to a power run offense that emphasizes more vertical passing. Rodgers is averaging 5.9 intended air yards per pass attempt, the lowest in the league.
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Smith-Njigba broke Steve Largent's team record for most 100-yard games in a season with his seventh. He needs 157 yards to break Metcalf's team season record of 1,303. His 1,146 yards are the eighth most in NFL history in the first ten games of a season. Barner has been excellent in spurts. In his six best games, he has averaged 12 points, which would make him TE4 on the season. Unfortunately, in his worst games, he has 5.2 points. Total. Still, he's a good player who has stepped up when called upon for the Seahawks. He is a great under-the-radar buy in Dynasty leagues. Kupp came up just short of scoring in a revenge matchup against the Rams. Seattle plays a Titans defense that has the sixth-worst pass defense EPA.
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Egbuka became one of eight rookies with 700 receiving yards and six touchdowns over the first ten games of their career. Tez Johnson had gone over 42 yards in five straight games before just six yards against Buffalo. He maintained his snap share as the outside receiver opposite Egbuka. Tampa plays an elite Rams defense in Week 12, and there is initial hope that Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin will be available.
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Ertz needs one reception to tie Shannon Sharpe's 815 for the fifth most by a tight end in NFL history. Samuel has touchdowns in consecutive games and topped 41 yards for the first time since Week 5. Washington is on a bye in Week 12.
Offenses with Top 1 Option > 25% and Top 3 < 70% Target Share