The Top 10: Week 15

Featuring fantasy-oriented insights rooted in film-driven football analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 15 Matt Waldman Published 12/09/2025

© Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images fantasy

MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis.

The goal of this feature is to provide you with actionable recommendations that will help you get results. The fundamental mission is to get the process right.

While it's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls, doing so without a sustainable process makes success ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that have made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what Atlanta Falcons Area Scout and former SEC recruiter Alex Brown has told me over the past 8-10 years.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, available every Monday night during the season, is a viable source of information to kick-start your week as a fantasy GM.

The theme this week...Details aren't nitpicking, but the difference between the players considered the best in the world.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 14'S CLIFF'S NOTES

  1. Michael Wilson has been dominant as the Cardinals' primary receiver. There are two ways Wilson could escape Arizona, and why we should be rooting for the earlier exit plan. 
  2. Shedeur Sanders delivered against the Titans, and the media outrage machine is in full force over the Browns' short history with the rookie QB. My take: Sanders has a future, but he is not the Browns' future, yet...
  3. Harold Fannin Jr. got to show against the Titans what he should become in an offensive scheme exploiting the complete breadth of his game. Expect Fannin to emerge as a top-five fantasy tight end. 
  4. Alec Pierce should be a priority addition for dynasty GMs seeking an emerging force. 
  5. Luther Burden III was a re-draft failure, but you should remain bullish on his dynasty value. 
  6. Keaton Mitchell's speed gives him notoriety, but availability is a talent. So is reliability -- this is where any talk of Mitchell usurping Derrick Henry's playing time is nonsense. 
  7. Ryan Flournoy had an impressive box score on Thursday night. The film had moments, but not enough to believe he can "replace" George Pickens in Dallas next year. 
  8. Jameson Williams is a legitimate primary NFL receiver for his team -- or any team. 
  9. Jahmyr Gibbs isn't the only reason David Montgomery's days as the co-starter in Detroit may be numbered.
  10. My 2026 Dynasty Wishlist of emerging talents heading into next year who could offer good redraft value relative to ADP, but wind up overrated if the rest of the industry gets behind them. 

1. Michael Wilson: Should We Be Rooting for An Exit Plan? 

After Week 11, I posed the question: Is Michael Wilson the best wide receiver on the Cardinals? A month earlier, I made the statement: Michael Wilson is one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL. 

Three years ago, I wrote a pre-NFL Draft scouting report that showed how Michael Wilson compared to primary-possession standouts like Michael Thomas and Michael Crabtree despite little fanfare at Stanford due to injuries and dropped passes. 

The buzz on social media about Wilson is beginning to echo my sentiments about Wilson, thanks to Wilson's production and film. 

Talk all you want about game scripts, Marvin Harrison Jr., and any surrounding factor you wish. The bottom line is that the Cardinals have not maximized Wilson's talents, and that's an indictment on their coaching staff and franchise quarterback. If the Cardinals behave like most NFL organizations, the real indictment is on the front office for leaning too hard on the sunk costs of draft capital ahead of skills. 

All we care about as fantasy GMs is whether we can rely on Wilson to earn the opportunities that maximize his skills. There are three ways this could happen for Wilson in the next two years. 

  1. Marvin Harrison Jr. suffers a catastrophic injury or gets suspended within the next 7-10 months. 
  2. The Cardinals' (likely new) coaching staff invests its energy in Wilson as the primary receiver with the intent of re-signing him to a bigger deal in 2027.
  3. The Cardinals trade Wilson this offseason because there's one year left on his deal, and the organization decides that the capital they can get for Wilson is more valuable than keeping him. 

We're not rooting for outcome No. 1, and I doubt the Cardinals' front office will pivot enough to embrace point No. 2. I'm rooting for the offseason trade. 

It's difficult to imagine there won't be teams inquiring about Wilson this winter. If you're a dynasty GM, acquiring Wilson via trade is a tricky investment at this point. You're paying an elevated cost based on what he can do, but the worst-case scenario is that you may have to wait another year to see if he gets an opportunity to do it elsewhere. 

If you're a Cardinals fan, you want Arizona to keep Wilson, draft a quarterback who works out, and have a juggernaut of a passing game where Wilson, Harrison, and Tre McBride can earn targets worth their respective talents. 

If you're a fantasy GM, you're not counting on rainbows and unicorns to appear in the Great Southwest. Your best bet is hoping for an offseason trade to an organization with an established quarterback in a system that will leverage Wilson's talents.

Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco, and New England come to mind easily. Tampa Bay, if you part ways with the elder statesmen. Denver would be compelling if Sean Payton embraces the idea that Pat Bryant won't become Wilson. I'll even add Washington, Carolina, and Miami to the list, although all three are riskier. 

If you have Wilson, you hold him and hope for the best. If you don't, be prepared for volatility. 

2. Shedeur Sanders: An NFL Future, Yes. In Cleveland? Mmm...  

The media outrage is higher than ever when it comes to Sanders.

How does Kevin Stefanski take Sanders out of the game on a two-point conversion attempt?  A good question and a fair point of outrage.

Sanders played better football this week and led the Browns in a comeback effort that he could have helped punctuate. Instead, Cleveland relied on a trick play where Quinshown Judkins messed up the execution of the plan. 

Let's return to Sanders' play for a moment. The rookie showed better placement and increased anticipation and awareness as a passer this week. 

This is to be expected on two counts: The Tennessee Titans are among the most generous defenses to quarterback production in the league this year. While they've only allowed one 300-yard passer this year -- Sanders -- they've allowed at least 2 touchdown passes to 8 quarterbacks in 13 games this year.

The only starter who didn't throw a touchdown pass against the Titans? Kyler Murray. Riddling the Titans is not a monumental accomplishment. 

Still, Sanders riddled this NFL defense in his third start and only his third week of first-team reps with the organization at any point since he landed in Cleveland. That's noteworthy. 

Back to the media outrage...

Shedeur Sanders should have always been ahead of Dillon Gabriel in the Browns' plans...

On the surface,  I agree with this point if we're only looking at these two quarterbacks through the prism of on-field talent. I graded Gabriel as an aspiring QB3 on an NFL roster who might develop into a backup who does enough to one day deliver journeyman value as a short-term starter. 

Think a lesser Case Keenum. 

I graded Sanders as a player who could deliver as a part-time starter in the capacity of a backup during his first contract and potentially develop into a franchise-caliber starter if the scheme and surrounding talent are a strong fit. 

Think of Kirk Cousins. 

There's a big difference in upside between Keenum and Cousins, as there is between Gabriel and Sanders. The average fan and content creator see this and have plenty of material to generate entertaining outrage. 

Below the surface, Sanders likely screwed up his pre-draft visits. Remember, it wasn't the Browns who lambasted Sanders' preparation and behavior during this phase of the draft process. The Giants-Brian Daboll stories are the most visible, but they weren't the only ones. 

There are two ends of the spectrum from which we can view this situation: 

  • The coaches interviewing Sanders had latent biases against Sanders that were ignorant, and it rightly fuels the media outrage.
  • The coaches interviewing Sanders had accurate assessments of Sanders' behavior, and it rightfully cost Sanders draft capital because he presented as unprofessional, immature, and unreliable in a big moment where even the folks who fake it know this was the time to fake it. 

Credit Cleveland for taking the shot on Sanders, even if their earlier acquisition of Gabriel was a head-scratcher. It's not like the Browns haven't engaged in this foolishness in the recent past. Remember third-round pick Cody Kessler in 2016? 

Still, it's understandable why Cleveland and Kevin Stefanski saw Sanders as a project where maturity was the resource requiring growth more than the on-field component. Stefanski likely wanted to give Sanders a year away from the field. 

That leads us to the next point of media outrage.

It's clear that Kevin Stefanski hates Shedeur Sanders and has actively been a roadblock to Sanders' development...

This is the underlying insight we've been seeing from the media who have been in Sanders' camp before the rookie ever became a Cleveland Brown. It's easy to conflate the organization's draft capital of Gabriel, Sanders' lack of opportunity for legitimate reps and competition, and even the failed two-point conversion attempt as a gigantic conspiracy against Sanders. 

It's possible Stefanski saw Gabriel as a better fit for his offense. It's also possible that Stefanski commented on the fit to be a good team player when their front office made a craptastic decision. 

It's possible Stefanski knows that most NFL front offices are going to shove the player with higher draft capital into an agenda that makes them look smart to the public. You know how you don't get another job in the NFL as a coach? Make ownership look stupid in your current gig. 

Politics suck -- no matter the arena. 

So here we are, Sanders had a great box score and good film against a bad team, the coach made a risky call in a pivotal situation that blew up in his face, and there's a complicated history among the coach, the player, the front office, and even other teams in the league. 

Is Sanders the next Joe Burrow? Sanders' output on Sunday may fit neatly with a buzzy snippet of analysis that he could be. 

His film tells a different story. Sanders is improving, and he has starter upside as he learns the NFL game. A reasonable expectation is that Sanders is going to have good weeks, mediocre weeks, and bad weeks during his next 18-30 starts. 

Therein lies the rub: Will those starts happen in Cleveland? Unless Deion Sanders becomes head coach in 2026, there's a strong chance we could see the Browns take a quarterback in the first round. 

I think Sanders can be a starting quarterback in the league one day. I'm not convinced it happens in Cleveland.

3. Harold Fannin Jr.: A Bright Future. Even in Cleveland

I think we're all convinced Fannin is one of the offensive centerpieces for the Browns. One thing we saw Shedeur Sanders do with Fannin against the Titans -- something that Joe Flacco tried to do earlier in the year, Dillon Gabriel could not -- was feature him on vertical routes. 

Ultimately,  this was a coaching/coordinator decision to feature Fannin on more vertical routes and contested targets. Nonetheless, Sanders made good. 

Fannin has been fantastic as a tackle-breaker on shallow targets, but it's a relief to see some effort to use him downfield where there's potentially less punishment and bigger returns. 

Whether Cleveland's starter in 2026 is Sanders or a first-round rookie, look for Fannin's game to grow. If he can develop the rapport he has with Sanders with next year's rookie, he could become a top-five fantasy option. 

4. Alec Pierce: Priority Dynasty Building Block? 

I wrote about Pierce weeks ago as an emerging force who might have a shot to overtake Michael Pittman Jr as the primary receiver on the Colts. 

According to Bob Harris' conversations with James Boyd of the Athletic, Pierce looks like the best receiver on the field in every practice. 

Pierce was my WR7 in the 2022 NFL Draft, earning a score slightly lower than Michael Wilson's in 2023, but still a rotational starter in terms of immediate value. Short-term, I saw a talent who could offer more than Marquez Callaway -- especially as a vertical and boundary threat.

Long-term, I felt Pierce could develop into a player closer in style to Justin Jefferson than many might have thought: 

The RSP Elevator Pitch for Pierce: There’s some Justin Jefferson to Pierce’s game. Both players are better athletes than many who don’t study the tape might have expected. Both are skilled vertical weapons due to their hands, speed, timing, and toughness at the catch point. Pierce is maybe half a step slower in top gear, but he’s quicker, taller, bigger, and he jumps 3.5 inches higher. Jefferson is better after the catch and a better overall route runner from release work to his breaks.

Still, Pierce’s upside should not be taken lightly. He has the skills to develop into an NFL starter with big-play ability—even if he’s considered a 1-A/1-B or even the No.2 option in the offense to an established primary weapon. If Pierce can become as good at the line of scrimmage as he’s shown as a ball winner in the air against tight coverage, Pierce will earn a starting opportunity that could translate to a long and productive career in the NFL.

A few weeks ago, I would have thought Pierce was a lock to stay with the Colts. Daniel Jones was riding high, and the Colts seemed like a team on the rise. 

Now? Jones tore his Achilles, and we don't know if the Colts will give Anthony Richardson Sr. another chance or draft an early-round rookie. 

New England and Drake Maye look like a great fit to me. Like Michael Wilson, Pierce's fantasy value is volatile at this point. Still, if you believe talent wins out more often than not, you're going to embrace the volatility and take the chance. 

5. Luther Burden III: Priority Dynasty Building Block

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Tags:
Week 15 2025 the top 10 Matt Waldman fantasy football NFL Jameson Williams Jahmyr Gibbs David Montgomery Alec Pierce Luther Burden III Keaton Mitchell Ryan Flournoy Harold Fannin shedeur sanders Michael Wilson
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