We are two weeks into the season, and we're starting to get some clarity, which is always a good thing, whether it's good news or bad. The unknown and making important decisions involving the unknown make this hobby challenging. The more we know, the better off we are.
So What Do We Know? A Lot, Actually
The first three weeks of the season are my favorite. So much is being learned at this time. The cream is rising to the top. Opportunities are presented to players, and several have answered the bell with a successful first two games. Injuries are starting to mount at all positions. With every injury comes an opportunity for someone else to fill the void, and the cycle continues. Winning your league is about having key performers and knowing who to target before they rise to power. When a team condenses 60%+ of its target tree to just one or two receivers, you get bulletproof volume floors for fantasy, even on low-scoring weeks. Although it's not a must, players on winning teams are generally more successful fantasy options.
- Teams that are 2-0: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Seattle, and San Francisco.
- Teams that are 0-2: Miami, Indianapolis, Houston, Tennessee, LA Chargers, Washington, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta.
What Makes a Successful Running Back?
1. Opportunity - There is more of a chance to have success if the opportunity for carries is high. You want to have running backs on teams that prioritize running plays per game. These are also the backs you should target for proactive waiver claims if available. Additionally, tracking Yards After Contact (YAC) allows us to identify elite backs like Ken Walker III (215 YAC), Derrick Henry (142 YAC), and Jahmyr Gibbs (132 YAC) who manufacture their own fantasy production regardless of offensive line play.
Top 10 Teams (Rushing Attempts Per Game)
- New York Giants: 37.0 - This could change with the Jaxson Dart (knee) injury situation, but this is a positive for Cam Skattebo, Devin Singletary, and don't forget Tyrone Tracy Jr., who is an injury away from being a part of this mix.
- Chicago Bears: 35.0 - D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai lead this team, but Roschon Johnson may be a good pre-emptive handcuff if you have Monangai in a deep league.
- Kansas City Chiefs: 33.5 - Ken Walker III is the top back, but Emmett Johnson is getting some play as well and could easily become a weekly starter if Walker gets injured.
- Las Vegas Raiders: 33.0 - Ashton Jeanty is the obvious top back in Las Vegas, but Mike Washington Jr. is an excellent handcuff to target who showed some flash in this offense in the preseason.
- New York Jets: 33.0 - Breece Hall has more than double the carries of Braelon Allen, but each has one rushing touchdown to date.
- Washington Commanders: 32.0 - Jacory Croskey-Merritt has the lead job for now, but Rachaad White is gaining ground, and he's the pass-catching back that Marcus Mariota has become attached to (4 targets to White after replacing Daniels (elbow) in the second half).
- Atlanta Falcons: 31.5 - Bijan Robinson is the top back with Brian Robinson Jr. in a secondary role. It may be best to stay away from this offense until proven otherwise.
- Seattle Seahawks: 31.0 Jadarian Price and Emanuel Wilson are splitting the backfield 50/50. Both have zero touchdowns. In fact, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the only offensive player with any touchdowns (4) on the team.
- Minnesota Vikings: 31.0 - With Jordan Mason on injured reserve, Aaron Jones Sr. becomes the top back, with only DeeJay Dallas and Demond Claiborne in his way.
- Baltimore Ravens: 29.5 - Derrick Henry is the unquestioned backfield leader, but Justice Hill is lurking with the ability to make plays as a receiver.
- New England Patriots: 29.5 - Rhamondre Stevenson is the leading back for now, but TreVeyon Henderson is coming on strong. It appears both will be sharing backfield duties, with the hot hand being in line to have the better week.
Bottom 10 Teams (Rushing Attempts Per Game)
Teams showing lower numbers for rushing pace through two weeks. Sometimes it's a sign of things to come; other times it's a mirage of data and stats that irons itself out.
- Cincinnati Bengals: 25.0 - Chase Brown leads the team with 71% carry share, with Samaje Perine gaining some ground.
- Houston Texans: 25.0 - Both David Montgomery and Woody Marks are close to 50/50 on snap totals (81 and 78, respectively).
- Miami Dolphins: 23.5 - De'Von Achane has a firm grasp on the snap share: 93 to the next closest, DJ Herman, with 32.
- Cleveland Browns: 22.5 - Quinshon Judkins has 72 snaps to Raheim Sanders' 29.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 22.5 - Bucky Irving is taking over the backfield, leaving Kenny Gainwell as a secondary pass-catcher. Irving's snap count is 86 to Gainwell's 49.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 22.0 - Jaylen Warren is leading the Steelers backfield with 75 snaps to Dowdle's 57, and now Rico Dowdle is dealing with a toe injury that could hamper his ability to stay active.
- Carolina Panthers: 22.0 - New play-caller Brad Idzik is prioritizing the passing game over the ground game because it is working. Chuba Hubbard is leading Jonathon Brooks 91 to 33 in total snaps, and Brooks may miss a few weeks with a re-aggravated groin injury. Hubbard should see an uptick in usage and production in the coming weeks. Worth noting: Hubbard lost about 40-50 yards on gains that were called back due to penalties in Week 2.
- Tennessee Titans: 21.5 - The Snap share is fairly tight between Tony Pollard (55) and Tyjae Spears (44).
- Denver Broncos: 21.5 - The three-headed committee does not have a definitive answer yet. J.K. Dobbins, Jonah Coleman, and RJ Harvey are each getting snaps in the Denver offense with no true takeover back...yet.
- Dallas Cowboys: 19.5 - Only the Packers are running fewer rushing plays, but when Dallas does decide to rush, it's Javonte Williams by a wide margin, with fullback Hunter Luepke the next closest rusher.
- Green Bay Packers: 19.5 - Green Bay desperately misses Josh Jacobs and, like Denver, they have yet to find a back that they can rely on. As a result, the pass offense is taking center stage, for now. Chris Brooks leads the way with 65 snaps, followed by Marshawn Lloyd (46) and Kaleb Johnson (16). Lloyd leads the team with 19 rushes but a mere 3.0 yards per carry.
The more plays a team runs, the greater the chance of having positive fantasy success. Knowing which teams run more plays per game and which run fewer will better indicate which players to target when setting a lineup.