In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some big names -- yes, even ones that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: if any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
I use this spot to review my previous week's results. It can be a painful experience, even on good weeks. It's downright miserable after other weeks.
This past week?
Well, we didn't see the same high-scoring games we did in Week 1. There was also a wave of quarterback injuries. An already slightly thinned group of front-line receiving assets took more hits in Week 2, and, somehow, Deshaun Watson wasn't horrible. Who would've guessed?
Despite the volatility and unexpected circumstances, it wasn't too bad. Here's how it looked:
I was in on Packers QB Jordan Love, who was projected to finish as QB14 with 17.8 points. While I felt a top-10 finish wasn't a stretch, I played it safe and said Love would finish in QB1 territory. I didn't play it safe enough. Love was QB20 with 13.8 fantasy points. A miss. ❌
I was out on Patriots QB Drake Maye, who was projected to finish as QB6 with 19.9 points. I predicted Maye would fall outside the top 10. He obliged with another rough outing in Pittsburgh, finishing as QB25 with 8 points. A hit. ✅
I was in on Jaguars RB Bhayshul Tuten, who appeared to be in a good spot going up against a Denver defense that couldn't stop Kansas City's Ken Walker III the week before. Tuten was projected to finish as RB28 with 11.45 points. I expected Tuten to finish in RB2 territory, and that's exactly what he did. The second-year back was RB13 with 14.2 points. Another hit. ✅
I was out on Cardinals RB Jeremiyah Love, who was projected to finish as RB26 with 12.6 points in a very tough matchup against the Seahawks. I predicted Love would fall short of his projected numbers, and he did. The rookie finished as RB36 with 7.5 points. Better days are ahead for Love, but I'll take this. It was a hit. ✅
I was in on Commanders WR Terry McLaurin, who was projected to finish Sunday's game against the Cowboys as WR30 with 12.1 points. I saw this matchup as a get-right spot after a dismal Week 1 outing. Sunday wasn't as disappointing as his 3.4-point WR85 finish in the opener, but it wasn't great. I said he'd finish as a WR2. Instead, he was WR51 with 7 points. A big miss. ❌
I was out on Steelers WR DK Metcalf, who appeared to be totally out of sync with Aaron Rodgers in Week 1. That didn't change in Week 2. His Footballguys projection called for a WR25 finish with 13.2 points. I said he'd fail to hit either number. Metcalf finished as WR58 with 6.7 points. An easy hit. ✅
I was in on Raiders TE Michael Mayer in what may have been his last game this season, filling the lead role at his position in Brock Bowers' absence. His Footballguys projection called for a TE14 finish with 9.9 points. I said he would finish inside the top 12. Mayer finished as TE25 with 5.3 points. A significant miss. ❌
I was out on Ravens TE Mark Andrews, but not as a starter. Instead, I felt he would fall outside the top five at the position despite being projected to finish as TE3 with 12.5 points. It was more a bet on the field than on Andrews, and the field was great. Andrews finished as TE12 with 10.9 points. Nice score. Still a hit. ✅
As for my Outlier of the Week, Saints WR Devaughn Vele, I expected him to get ample opportunity to outperform his WR45, 10.17-point Footballguys projection. Enough to deliver WR3-level or better production. Vele was WR29 with 11.4 points. A happy hit. ✅
It was a pretty good week, but it could have been better. As always, I have nobody to blame but myself -- and maybe a tougher-than-expected Jets defense, Jayden Daniels' injured elbow, and Tre Tucker for dominating the Raiders' receiving totals -- for falling short of a perfect outcome.
Here's where we stand after Week 2:
Week 2: 6-3
Season: 11-7
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions, so I'm not going to lie; my .611 hit rate feels pretty good.
And with that, let's dive into Week 3.
Week 3 Picks At a Glance
In: Justin Herbert, Chuba Hubbard, Josh Downs, Pat Freiermuth
Out: Trevor Lawrence, Bucky Irving, Jaylen Waddle, Isaiah Likely
Outlier to Watch: Dontayvion Wicks
Quarterback
In: Justin Herbert, LA Chargers @ Buffalo
We had such high hopes. Herbert has finished between 10th and 17th in fantasy points per game in each of the last four seasons.
But he was QB3 in 2021.
So this year, with Mike McDaniel hired as coordinator to inject some life into the Chargers offense, fantasy investors leaned into Herbert in drafts, believing a ceiling season might be incoming.
That hasn't been the case.
Two weeks in, Herbert, who was drafted as QB8 (ahead of Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, and Matthew Stafford, to name just a few), sits at QB28 with a meager 10.6 points per game average.
Herbert seems out of sync with McDaniel's offense thus far.
Last week, he didn't complete a pass of more than 20 air yards, as he was under constant pressure and receivers struggled to get open.
So why should we expect a sudden improvement?
For starters, Herbert will face a Buffalo defense that allowed 29.8 points to Jared Goff last week. In fact, the Bills have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this year. C.J. Stroud scored 20.5, as he and Goff combined for 601 passing yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions.
FantasyPros' Derek Brown notes the Bills have allowed the tenth-most yards per attempt, the fourth-highest passing success rate, and the sixth-most Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback.
In addition, the over/under for this one is 50.5 points -- the second-highest total on the slate this week.
Much of Goff's production last week came after the Bills jumped out to a big lead, forcing the Lions to play catch-up. The odds of the Chargers' offense rebounding have to improve if their hand is forced.
So much so that Footballguys' Devin Knotts wrote in his Week 3 Passing Matchups, "The Chargers aren't as settled offensively as those teams, but this looks like the perfect week to project a breakout."
Bottom line: Herbert's Footballguys projection calls for a QB14 finish with 17.3 points. I say Herbert will outperform both those numbers.
Out: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville vs. New England
As CBSSports.com's Jamey Eisenberg pointed out, Lawrence's nine-game streak of scoring at least 23.1 fantasy points came to an end in Week 2 at Denver when he scored just 6.2 in a loss to the Broncos.
Even if we'd like to expect better this week, the Patriots have allowed only one quarterback to score multiple touchdowns against them in their past nine regular-season games, dating back to last season: Josh Allen in Week 15.
This week, it will be strength on strength.
According to Next Gen Stats, Lawrence has faced man coverage on a career-low 19.6 percent of dropbacks through two weeks. In those dropbacks against man coverage, Lawrence has completed 7-of-10 passes for 108 yards and a touchdown, giving him 10.4 yards per attempt and several explosive plays.
As SI.com notes, the Patriots run man coverage at the highest rate of any defense in the NFL this year, though they have allowed just 3.0 yards per attempt in man coverage, the second-lowest mark in the NFL.
The difference will come in the form of pressure.
The Patriots' 27 QB pressures rank 11th in the league through two games, and their 8.2 sack percentage ranks 8th. Their defense generated 18 pressures and four sacks against Rodgers last week.
Per Next Gen Stats, Lawrence has the fifth-worst completion percentage (6-for-17, 35.3 percent) among qualified quarterbacks when under pressure. His only interception this season happened in Week 2 against the Denver Broncos when under pressure.
Lawrence is a very good quarterback. I don't expect him to come up as small as he did in Denver last week, but I don't expect a ceiling performance, either.
Bottom line: Lawrence's Footballguys projection calls for a QB10 finish with 17.9 points. I believe Lawrence will fall short of both those numbers.