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Howdy Reader,
Welcome in.
I hope your weekend brought some joy. Whether that was chilling with friends or just catching your breath. However you spent it, we’re glad you’re here with us to kick off the week.
At Footballguys, this isn’t just about content. It’s about community. We show up every day because you do.
And today, we’ve got two big features for you: Jeff Blaylock takes a close look at Kyren Williams. He's been a blue-chip RB, but there are questions about whether his past volume will affect his 2025 numbers. Is he built to handle the load again? Jeff has thoughts.
And Clayton Gray tracks the movement in Underdog ADP, so you’re never drafting yesterday’s hype.
Plus, Cecil Lammey is back with the News and Notes you need to stay sharp.
Let’s go.
J
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What's New At Footballguys
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Kyren Williams: A Workhorse Under a Caution Flag
By Jeff Blaylock - Exclusive to Footballguys
The following feature is a free preview of our content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys Premium Subscriptions, and you'll get all of our content. We're so sure you'll love it that we have an industry-leading 30-day MoneyBack Guarantee, so there's zero risk.
Kyren Williams has posted back-to-back RB7 seasons in point-per-reception (PPR) scoring systems, but the high volume that fueled those fantasy finishes raises caution flags for his 2025 outlook.
A former 5th-round pick out of Notre Dame, Williams emerged from the Rams' 2022 training camp behind Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson Jr. as the team's RB3. He played in 10 games but was lightly used, touching the ball just 44 times. He opened the 2023 season as the RB2 on the depth chart behind Akers, but seized the starting job in Week 2, and Akers was traded to Minnesota. Williams started the next five games before missing the next four because of a high ankle sprain, then played the next six. Despite playing in just 12 games, Williams ranked third in the league in rushing yards (1,144) and tied for the fifth-most rushing touchdowns (12).
When the Rams spent a 2024 third-round pick to take Blake Corum, many expected to see Williams's workload reduced from the 21.7 touches per game he averaged in 2023. It didn't happen. Despite playing in every game, Corum carried the ball just 58 times for 207 yards and added seven receptions for 58 yards. Instead, head coach and offensive play-caller Sean McVay leaned even more heavily into Williams, making him arguably the most-used running back in the league.
Players With at Least 70% of Their Team's RB Touches in 2024
Williams accounted for nearly 80 percent of all touches by Rams running backs, and he was the only player in the league to handle at least 70 percent of his team's total rushing attempts, including those by players other than running backs. His 350 touches were the third-most in the regular season among running backs behind Saquon Barkley (380) and Bijan Robinson (364).
McVay's History of Workhorse Backs
McVay has shown a decade-long tendency to ride his workhorse when he has a healthy one. The running back position is fraught with injuries, so the strategy sometimes forces what appears in the final stat sheet to be a committee approach. However, even when his workhorse back misses significant time, he retains the habit of riding whatever horse he has in the stable. When they're healthy, his RB1s can deliver workhorse seasons – a high volume coupled with a high share of touches – that provide potentially league-winning fantasy points.
Six workhorse seasons have been produced in McVay's system by three running backs: Doug Martin, Todd Gurley, and Kyren Williams.
Regular-Season Stats for McVay's Workhorses
While he was the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay, McVay leaned heavily on Martin when he was healthy. Martin accounted for nearly two-thirds of all running back touches during the 2015 season, during which he played every game. Sandwiched around that campaign were seasons in which he missed five games in one and a half of the other. In his absence, McVay platooned his backs in more of a committee-type pattern.
Gurley was already being utilized heavily by the Rams prior to McVay's arrival, and he continued to operate as a workhorse under his new head coach. His nearly 4,000 yards from scrimmage in 2017 and 2018 combined were nearly 700 more yards than the closest running back, and he posted back-to-back top-three fantasy seasons. However, his efficiency and workload declined considerably in 2019, and he was released the following March.
CONTINUED...
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Jacksonville Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. caught a pass of at least 50 yards five times during the 2024 season, which was tied for the NFL lead in that category.
Our view: Thomas took the league by storm last year as a rookie, and we're all excited about what he can do in year two. With a healthy Trevor Lawrence tossing him the ball in a Liam Coen pass-friendly system, Thomas could be in line to make more big plays in 2025. Having a threat like rookie WR/CB Travis Hunter opposite of him may help open things up as well. Thomas has a current ADP of WR8 and is going off the board in the second round.
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New York Jets TE Mason Taylor said that he has been working on refining his footwork, hand placement, leverage and run-game protection in the team's offseason program.
Our view: Taylor has incredible upside, and we're excited about the rookie in dynasty formats. His blocking ability has drawn the attention of Jets HC Aaron Glenn, as the new coach praised the rookie for his work in that department. You don't get fantasy points for blocking, but that skill will help Taylor earn a larger role in the Jets offense as he's already a dangerous pass-catching weapon. He's currently TE26 in ADP, so keep Taylor on your waiver wire speed dial if the rookie is not drafted in your league.
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3. BUF: Dalton Kincaid remained busy
Source: ESPN.com - Jeremy Fowler
Buffalo Bills TE Dalton Kincaid's 75 targets in 2024 ranked second on the team.
Our view: Kincaid is heavily involved even though he's working in a TEBC with Dawson Knox (the better blocker). The Bills don't use Kincaid as a seam-ripper (his natural skill set) but instead, they have Josh Allen dump off shorter passes to Kincaid. Even though he had the second-most amount of targets in 2024, Kincaid finished third on the team in receiving yards (448). Kincaid can get targets, but his misuse impacts his fantasy value. He's got a current ADP of TE14.
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4. WAS: Terry McLaurin made some big plays in 2024
Source: DetroitLions.com
Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin caught a pass of at least 50 yards five times during the 2024 season, which was tied for the NFL lead in that category.
Our view: McLaurin was a great combination with Jayden Daniels last year, and that chemistry should carry over to this season. The veteran receiver should once again be in line to make big plays over 50 yards. His 13 touchdowns from a year ago will be difficult to duplicate because touchdowns are a high-variance stat. That means we're projecting him for around seven touchdowns in 2025.
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5. PIT: George Pickens wasn't going to return to Pittsburgh
Source: FOX Sports Radio - Adam Caplan
The Pittsburgh Steelers had reportedly made the trade to acquire WR DK Metcalf from the Seattle Seahawks in March with the intention of trading WR George Pickens, according to NFL insider Adam Caplan, during a recent appearance on FOX Sports Radio.
Our view: This follows earlier reports that suggested the same thing. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported about a month ago that the Steelers decided that Pickens and Aaron Rodgers probably would not hit it off. We'll see how Rodgers fits with OC Arthur Smith, but we know there should be plenty of targets for Metcalf this season (think play-action shots). Metcalf has a current ADP of WR22.
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6. NYG: Dante Miller could make team
Source: The Athletic - Dan Duggan
New York Giants RB Dante Miller, who spent the bulk of the 2024 season on the practice squad, appears to have a good chance of making the 53-man roster because there will be a greater emphasis on returners due to the NFL's new kickoff rules, in the opinion of The Athletic's Dan Duggan.
Our view: Undrafted out of South Carolina in 2024 (didn't play in 2023 due to eligibility issues), Miller came into the league with 4.2 speed. He is a blur with the ball in his hands, and Miller has been developing with the Giants on their practice squad for a year. In return leagues with super deep rosters, we're keeping an eye on his growth.
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7. PIT: Cordarrelle Patterson on the roster bubble?
Source: The Athletic - Mike DeFabo
Pittsburgh Steelers RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson could be in jeopardy of not making the team's 53-man roster, in the opinion of The Athletic's Mike DeFabo.
Our view: How many running backs are the Steelers going to keep on the roster? By selecting Kaleb Johnson (shades of Demarco Murray to his game) in the third round, the room is packed in Pittsburgh. We should see Johnson team with Jaylen Warren to give the Steelers a 1-2 punch from the backfield. Behind those two, guys like Kenneth Gainwell, Trey Sermon, and Patterson are competing for roster spots. Due to his versatility, a spot on the practice squad could be meant for Patterson if he doesn't make the 53-man roster out of training camp.
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8. NYG: Wan'Dale Robinson wants to be used more downfield
Source: The Athletic - Dan Duggan
New York Giants WR Wan'Dale Robinson, who saw 77.8 percent of his offensive snaps as a slot receiver in 2024, was disappointed by his role despite seeing the 12th most targets (140) in the NFL. Although he would like the opportunity to make more plays downfield in 2025, he still saw a great deal of screens and dump-offs during spring practices and there appeared to be no indication of a change in how Robinson was used, according to The Athletic's Dan Duggan.
Our view: Robinson has suggested that he could move around the formation a lot more this year. Fantasy GMs aren't over the moon about Robinson this year. He's currently going off the board at WR68 after finishing last year as WR44 in PPR leagues.
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9. CAR: Mitchell Evans may see early work
Source: PanthersWire - Anthony Rizzuti
Carolina Panthers TE Mitchell Evans may have a role in the offense early in the season if TE Tommy Tremble (back) is not ready to play, in the opinion of PanthersWire's Anthony Rizzuti.
Our view: We're excited about the Panthers' passing attack in 2025 as Bryce Young continues to develop as a passer, but that does not carry over to the tight ends. The Panthers re-signed Tremble to a two-year contract earlier this year, but he's had offseason back surgery and is likely to begin camp on the PUP list. Evans will be competing with Ja'Tavion Sanders (who split time with Tremble as the TE1 in 2024) in camp for the starting role if Tremble misses time into the regular season.
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10. NYG: Three NYG receivers likely to remain with organization
Source: The Athletic - Dan Duggan
New York Giants WRs Beaux Collins, Da'Quan Felton and Antwane Wells are expected to stick around on the team's practice squad if they do not make the 53-man roster, in the opinion of The Athletic's Dan Duggan. All three receivers will earn $234,000 in guaranteed money this year, which is the full-season salary for a rookie on the practice squad.
Our view: All three are part of the seven (yes, seven) wide receivers the Giants added as priority free agents after the draft this year. Felton, a vertical threat out of Virginia Tech, might be the most intriguing because of his freakish athletic traits. In super deep dynasty formats, we'll keep an eye on all three rookies here.
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That’ll do it for today, Folks.
Thanks for spending part of your day with us. We see you, and we’re proud to be part of your fantasy football journey.
We’ll be back tomorrow with more.
Peace, Love, and Fantasy Football,
J
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Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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