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Favorite Games
- Cowboys at Chargers - Over/Under 54.5
- Titans at Seahawks - Over/Under 53.5
- 49ers at Eagles - Over/Under 49
- Vikings at Cardinals - Over/Under 51
- Saints at Panthers - Over/Under 44
Favorite Additional Spots
- Buccaneers at home against the Falcons - Implied Team Total 31.5
- Browns at home against the Texans - Implied Team Total 30.5
- Broncos on the road against the Jaguars - Implied Team Total 25.5
- Steelers at home against the Raiders - Implied Team Total 27
- Patriots on the road against the Jets - Implied Team Total 24.25
- Bengals on the road against the Bears - Implied Team Total 21.5
- Rams on the road against the Colts - Implied Team Total 25.75
- Bills on the road against the Dolphins - Implied Team Total 25.75
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Dak Prescott | at Chargers | $6,800 |
2 | Justin Herbert | vs. Cowboys | $6,700 |
3 | Kyler Murray | vs. Vikings | $8,200 |
4 | Matthew Stafford | at Colts | $6,400 |
5 | Teddy Bridgewater | at Jaguars | $5,400 |
Cowboys at Chargers has the highest Over/Under on the main slate and for good reason as both offenses offer exciting upside in a likely shootout. Our DFS decisions should start on a macro level and the first big-picture decision should be how we're going to handle this game. Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert both appear here in the Cash Game section but by no means does that mean they're not good GPP plays as well. Just understand this will be the most popular game from an ownership percentage so those tournament lineups will require some creativity. Prescott picked up right where he left off prior to injury in 2020, throwing for 403 yards and three touchdowns on opening night against a tough Buccaneers defense and he offers similar upside in this one. Herbert similarly impressed in Week 1, throwing for 337 yards and a touchdown against Washington's stout defense, and now he gets to play at home against an already vulnerable Cowboys defense that will be without their star defensive end, Demarcus Lawrence.
Kyler Murray was my preseason pick to finish as the overall QB1 this year due to his immense dual-threat upside. So far so good after he threw for 289 yards and four touchdowns and added another 20 yards and a touchdown on the ground. In his first game at home this year, the Cardinals will face a Vikings team that Joe Burrow found success against last week throwing for 261 yards and two touchdowns on only 27 attempts. And the Vikings defense is banged up as well: Anthony Barr and Everson Griffen have both been ruled out and Eric Kendricks is Questionable.
I contributed this headline to an offseason contributor's article titled "Value Plays: Quarterbacks": At the end of the year, Matthew Stafford joining the Rams will be one of, if not, the most important storyline of the 2021 season. Stafford being paired with Sean McVay looks great through one week after Stafford threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns against the Bears on Sunday Night Football. Stafford now gets to play in the dome in Indianapolis against a Colts defense that just gave up four touchdown passes to Russell Wilson on only 23 attempts.
Teddy Bridgewater is an exciting salary saver this week against a putrid Jaguars defense that just gave up 291 passing yards and two touchdowns to Tyrod Taylor in Week 1. Bridgewater threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns last Sunday and provides competency to the Quarterback position in Denver, which offers a solid supporting cast of receiving weapons.
Running Backs
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Alvin Kamara | at Panthers | $8,800 |
2 | Nick Chubb | vs. Texans | $7,800 |
3 | Najee Harris | vs. Raiders | $6,300 |
4 | Joe Mixon | at Bears | $7,000 |
5 | Ezekiel Elliott | at Chargers | $6,200 |
6 | Elijah Mitchell | at Eagles | $5,000 |
Alvin Kamara's 24 opportunities (carries + targets) ranked tied for the seventh most in Week 1 and his 19.6 opportunities per game average ranked tenth best in the league in 2020. With Michael Thomas and TreQuan Smith hurt and Latavius Murray no longer on the team, Kamara put up 91 total yards and a touchdown in a game that wasn't even competitive against the Packers. Now he gets to play in what projects to be a closer game against a Panthers defense that ranked 24th in overall DVOA and 20th in run DVOA a season ago. Kamara is the clear-cut top option in a Sean Payton-led offense. He's a lock for our cash game lineups and a great tournament play as well.
The Browns have a true identity with trustworthy head coach Kevin Stefanski and one of the best offensive lines in football. They can run the ball at will and it helps that Nick Chubb is arguably the best pure runner in the game. Do not, I repeat do not, let the awful Jacksonville Jaguars franchise getting trounced by Houston distract you from the fact the Texans defense already ranked 30th in overall DVOA and 29th in run DVOA in 2020 before becoming even worse in the offseason with losses such as J.J. Watt. Chubb's overall volume is more capped than other studs at the position but his situation and talent make up for it. And you arguably can't find a better matchup than this one. Chubb is an incredible play in all formats.
Najee Harris didn't produce last week but he did play on 100% of the offensive snaps and received 19 opportunities. Snaps and opportunities are about as predictive as it gets for fantasy points, especially at the Running Back position. Harris was an organizational first-round pick in an attempt to become a more balanced offense so we can logically predict Harris' volume not only isn't going anywhere but is likely to increase in more favorable matchups as well. Enter a home matchup against a Raiders defense that ranked 28th in overall DVOA and 28th in run DVOA a season ago. Looking ahead and toward the bigger picture, this might be the last time Harris costs less than $7,000 all season. Take advantage!
Speaking of Running Back salaries jumping from the low $6,000s to the $7,000 range, this just happened for Joe Mixon after his talent collided with bankable volume. I wrote this in last week's article: With Giovani Bernard now a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, Joe Mixon has 25+ touch upside on Sunday. He ranked fourth in the entire league in opportunities per game (24.17) last season and that was with Bernard on the team. It appears I undersold Mixon drastically. He saw 33 opportunities and 33 touches on Sunday and both of these marks led the league. The Bengals are now road favorites and Mixon gets a Bears defense that just allowed 87 total yards and a touchdown to Darrell Henderson in Week 1.
It's strange to see Ezekiel Elliott priced at only $6,200 but it makes sense after Dallas' incredibly smart plan to avoid Tampa Bay's strong run defense resulted in only 13 Week 1 opportunities for Elliott. But let's zoom out a bit here and remember Elliott ranked seventh in the league in opportunities per game (21.21) a season ago. The smart bet here is to trust the bigger picture data set we have on Elliott as a workhorse and to project a significant workload increase in Week 2 against a Chargers defense that ranked 20th in overall DVOA and 26th in run DVOA last year.
You're taking on risk playing any Kyle Shanahan Running Back and player. Let's be upfront about that because that is not the ideal formula for a cash game Running Back. Yet Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are on Injured Reserve and Trey Sermon was a healthy inactive in Week 1. The odds of getting at least a committee Shanahan Running Back are high here and Elijah Mitchell only costs $5,000 after rushing 19 times for 104 yards and a touchdown a week ago. Mitchell is an athletic Mostert clone and gets to play in an intriguing fantasy game against the Eagles. If you need a Running Back in this price range to finalize your cash game lineup, the process makes sense.
Wide Receivers
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Tyler Lockett | vs. Titans | $7,200 |
2 | Antonio Brown | vs. Falcons | $6,000 |
3 | Amari Cooper | at Chargers | $6,800 |
4 | CeeDee Lamb | at Chargers | $6,400 |
5 | Keenan Allen | vs. Cowboys | $7,000 |
6 | JaMarr Chase | at Bears | $5,000 |
7 | Deebo Samuel | at Eagles | $6,700 |
8 | Emmanuel Sanders | at Dolphins | $4,000 |
9 | Tim Patrick | at Jaguars | $4,600 |
Tyler Lockett just put up 100 yards and two touchdowns on only five targets last week. His blowup performance will increase his ownership percentage in Week 2 but that doesn't necessarily mean he's only a cash game play. Remember, both Lockett and DK Metcalf played in all 16 games last season. Lockett saw more targets (132), more receptions (100), and the same amount of touchdowns (10) when compared to Metcalf. Lockett is an elite talent paired with a first-ballot Hall of Fame Quarterback playing at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week against a Titans defense that will be without Amani Hooker and that already ranked 29th in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA a season ago.
Antonio Brown's 121 receiving yards were the fifth most in Week 1 and he saw a decent amount of targets (7). Brown looks like the Hall of Fame talent we loved over the past decade and gets to play at home against a Falcons defense that ranked 19th in pass DVOA in 2020 and that just gave up 264 yards and three touchdowns to Jalen Hurts in Week 1.
Cowboys at Chargers has the highest Over/Under on the main slate and for good reason as both offenses offer exciting upside in a likely shootout. Our DFS decisions should start on a macro level and the first big-picture decision should be how we're going to handle this game. Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Keenan Allen are all great plays in both cash and tournament lineups. Cooper led the league in targets (17) and Lamb tied for the second-most targets (15) in Week 1 as both posted great fantasy games. Both their projectable floor and upside should be increased a bit due to injuries on offense (Michael Gallup) and defense (Demarcus Lawrence). And Keenan Allen is that dude. Allen posted nine catches on 12 targets for 100 yards last Sunday and now he gets to play at home against a Cowboys defense that ranked 23rd in overall DVOA and 21st in pass DVOA a year ago.
JaMarr Chase was one of the best Wide Receiver prospects to be drafted in the first round over the past decade and he reminded us in Week 1 just how silly some narratives such as small preseason sample sizes and drops concerns can be. Chase put up five catches on only seven targets for 101 receiving yards and a touchdown in a game where Joe Burrow only attempted 27 passes. $5,000 is an incredible value for Chase against a Bears defense that just got shredded by Matthew Stafford a week ago.
With the 49ers' Running Back injuries and Brandon Aiyuk possibly still somewhat relegated to Kyle Shanahan's doghouse in Week 2, look for Deebo Samuel to keep his positive momentum going after catching nine of 12 targets for 189 yards and a touchdown last week. This is a fun fantasy game as well as a decent matchup for Samuel against an Eagles defense that ranked 15th in overall DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA in 2020.
Emmanuel Sanders played on 79 of 85 snaps in Week 1, which was actually more than Stefon Diggs, and he also saw eight targets. Sanders is a full-time player in one of the most pass-happy and successful offenses in the league and he can be rostered for only $4,000. Like last week, the matchup here for Buffalo isn't extremely favorable but my preferred cash game strategy is to lock in expensive studs at Running Back with guaranteed workloads and fill in the Wide Receiver position with affordable volume and bankable playing time. Sanders fits this philosophy perfectly.
Tim Patrick played on 46 off 66 snaps in Week 1 and that was with Jerry Jeudy in the lineup for 31 snaps. Jeudy is now on Injured Reserve and Patrick is the Broncos Wide Receiver that projects to gain the most value. Patrick is a reliable player who caught all four of his targets in Week 1 for 39 yards and a touchdown. Next up is the incompetent Jaguars defense that just made Tyrod Taylor look like a Hall of Famer last week after already being a terrible unit in 2020, ranking 31st in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA.
Tight Ends
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Darren Waller | at Steelers | $7,600 |
2 | Kyle Pitts | at Buccaneers | $5,200 |
3 | Cole Kmet | vs. Bengals | $3,700 |
4 | James OShaughnessy | vs. Broncos | $2,700 |
Darren Waller saw 145 targets in 2020 and followed that up with 10 catches on 19 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against the Ravens. Waller's matchup against the Steelers this week isn't ideal but his volume at the Tight End position is as reliable as they come. John Gruden loves him and Derek Carr's Quarterback play-style meshes with Waller's game perfectly.
Kyle Pitts didn't put up a great stat line in Week 1 but he did play on 49 of 71 snaps and see eight targets. Those are exciting peripheral numbers that point to great games in Pitts' near future. The Falcons are current 12 point home dogs against Tampa Bay, which means there should be plenty of targets coming Pitts' way on Sunday.
Cole Kmet was one of my favorite players to draft all offseason as I loaded up in best ball and the thesis behind that aggressive offseason approach correlates with his favorable Week 2 projection. Kmet is an athletic 6’6” 262-pound beast that was just drafted in the second round last year and his usage breakout already happened as a rookie. Starting in Week 10, Kmet outsnapped Jimmy Graham in each of the final seven games. So it should've been no surprise to anyone when Kmet played on 51 of 69 snaps and saw seven targets in Week 1 of the 2021 season. He's only $3,700 this week and I doubt he'll be an obvious affordable starting Tight End for much longer, especially since he draws a favorable matchup this week against a Bengals defense that ranked 27th in overall DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA in 2020.
James OShaughnessy only costs $2,700 after playing on 59 of 73 snaps and seeing eight targets in Week 1. That's an incredible value for a cash game Tight End. I know it's only been one week but after a brutal loss to the Texans of all teams, this seems like a very easy situation to predict. The Jaguars will be losing a lot, which will equate to heavy passing volume from first overall pick, Trevor Lawrence. That's a recipe for fantasy success for all of Lawrence's pass catchers, OShaughnessy included.
Team Defenses
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Cleveland Browns | vs. Texans | $3,500 |
2 | New England Patriots | at Jets | $3,700 |
3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | vs. Falcons | $4,100 |
I don't care about what the Texans offense did to the Jaguars at all. This is still a sad offense in Houston with very few difference-making playmakers. The Browns are 13 point home favorites and the Texans have the lowest Implies Team Total (17.5) of the entire week.
Zach Wilson was pressured repeatedly last week by Carolina of all teams and now the Jets have lost their Left Tackle, Mekhi Becton, due to injury. Bill Belichick has a history of making life very difficult for rookie passers and the result here should be no different, especially since he projects to be able to generate a ton of pressure on Wilson. The Patriots are six-point favorites and the Jets have the second-lowest Implies Team Total (18.5) of the week.
The Falcons should've drafted Justin Fields to become the next face of their franchise. Instead, I fear they're a team stuck in purgatory moving in the wrong direction with an aging and diminishing Quarterback. The Buccaneers have one of the best defenses in football and they're 12 point favorites here. That should allow Tampa Bay's solid pass rush to pin their ears back and get after the statue that is Matt Ryan in the pocket.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Russell Wilson | vs. Titans | $7,500 |
2 | Tom Brady | vs. Falcons | $6,900 |
3 | Joe Burrow | at Bears | $5,800 |
4 | Josh Allen | at Dolphins | $7,200 |
5 | Ryan Tannehill | at Seahawks | $6,300 |
The most popular game is going to be the Cowboys at the Chargers, and rightfully so. But we know building tournament lineups is all about finding strategic and logical leverage over the field. With that in mind, Russell Wilson is my favorite tournament Quarterback of the week. The Titans at Seahawks game offers similar shootout potential and the matchup is phenomenal for Wilson either way. Tennessee's defense ranked 29th in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA a season ago, they just got shredded by Kyler Murray in Week 1, and they'll be without their Safety Amani Hooker due to injury. And Wilson might actually have some help in the playcalling department this year as Shane Waldron's first game as Offensive Coordinator brought increases in play-action passing and pre-snap motion. The #LetRussCook movement is back my friends.
Tom Brady ended the 2020 season on a tear, which ultimately resulted in a Super Bowl championship. He then proceeded to open the 2021 season throwing for 379 yards and four touchdowns in an impressive victory against the Cowboys. The Buccaneers are 12 point favorites this week against the Falcons and Brady is the reason why. Playing at home against an Atlanta defense that ranked 19th in pass DVOA in 2020 and that just gave up 264 yards and three touchdowns to Jalen Hurts in Week 1, Brady offers immense upside. And although I'm not predicting it, Matt Ryan's presence does provide a small chance this game could turn into somewhat of a competitive shootout.
Joe Burrow's $5,800 price tag is intriguing in a matchup with a Bears defense that looked lost without Kyle Fuller and that just got shredded by Matthew Stafford a week ago. Burrow was impressive in Week 1, throwing for 261 yards and two touchdowns on only 27 attempts.
Josh Allen produced a very mediocre game for his standards last week but it's important to remember he was facing a Steelers defense that ranked first in overall DVOA and first in pass DVOA last season. Unfortunately, he has another tough matchup on deck here against the Dolphins. Yet that presents another buying opportunity. Let's remember Allen threw for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns while also adding 421 rushing yards and eight rush touchdowns with his legs last season.
Ryan Tannehill and his offensive line both looked atrocious in Week 1 so it's tough to even mention Tannehill in this article for Week 2 but since everyone else is also wary of playing him, there is leverage to be had here if the Titans can turn it around. The Titans at Seahawks game offers shootout potential since we know Russell Wilson will pick apart a weak and depleted Titans secondary. If Tannehill can step up and keep pace throwing to solid weapons on A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, we'll be in business at a low ownership percentage. Tannehill fits the logical tournament process of getting contrarian but doing so in one of the best fantasy games of the week. And let's not forget Tannehill played lights out in 2020. Out of 52 qualifying Quarterbacks that attempted 40 or more passes from Weeks 1-16 last season, Tannehill ranked seventh in pass TDs per game (2.13), fourth in ANY/A (7.91), sixth in yards per attempt (7.9), fourth in TD% (7%), and ninth in INT% (1.5%).
Running Backs
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Christian McCaffrey | vs. Saints | $9,900 |
2 | David Montgomery | vs. Bengals | $6,100 |
3 | Austin Ekeler | vs. Cowboys | $7,300 |
4 | Damien Harris | at Jets | $5,400 |
5 | Kareem Hunt | vs. Texans | $5,800 |
6 | Javonte Williams | at Jaguars | $4,400 |
7 | Chris Carson | vs. Titans | $6,100 |
Christian McCaffrey dominated the league in 2019 and despite getting injured last season, still ranked second in opportunities per game (26). Naturally, McCaffrey's return to action in Week 1 produced 27.7 DraftKings points despite not finding the endzone thanks to 98 rushing yards and nine receptions for 89 yards. He's, of course, a solid play in all formats yet New Orleans did rank second in overall DVOA and second in run DVOA last season and they did follow that up with a trouncing of Aaron Rodgers in Week 1. This is a rare case where McCaffrey's bloated salary and tough matchup make him more of an option for our lineups and not a lock.
David Montgomery went off down the stretch in 2020, leading many fantasy managers to league titles. It was easy this offseason to push the narrative that Montgomery took advantage of a cupcake schedule to become relevant at the end of last season but it's not as easy as we sit here today. Montgomery looked incredible in Week 1, totaling 118 total yards and a touchdown on 17 touches against a solid Rams defense. And he now gets to play at home against a Bengals defense that ranked 27th in overall DVOA and 21st in run DVOA last year.
Austin Ekeler was on the injury report last week yet still carried 15 times for 57 yards and a touchdown against Washington's tough front seven. No longer on the injury report, Ekeler gets to play at home in the best fantasy game of the week with the highest Over/Under on the main slate. Ekeler didn't see a target in Week 1 yet I see that as an opportunity for leverage rather than a reason to shy away. Ekeler is a proven dual-threat who offers exciting upside on the ground and through the air against a Cowboys defense that ranked 23rd in overall DVOA and 23rd in run DVOA last season and will be playing in this one without Demarcus Lawrence.
Appreciate Damien Harris' late-game fumble last week because it will push his ownership percentage down. Harris' 26 opportunities in Week 1 were the fifth most in the league and he posted a 100-yard rushing game. Cam Newton is no longer on the roster to vulture red zone carries, James White's pass-catching role is locked in, and Rhamondre Stevenson barely played and still fumbled in Week 1. Harris' workload appears locked in once again in Week 2 and he projects to have a favorable game script with Bill Belichick's defense making life miserable for Zach Wilson and the Jets' depleted offensive line.
The Browns have a true identity with trustworthy head coach Kevin Stefanski and one of the best offensive lines in football, allowing them to run the ball at will. Do not, I repeat do not, let the awful Jacksonville Jaguars franchise getting trounced by Houston distract you from the fact the Texans defense already ranked 30th in overall DVOA and 29th in run DVOA in 2020 before becoming even worse in the offseason with losses such as J.J. Watt. Kareem Hunt offers upside in this spot at a low ownership percentage and the Browns have proven both Nick Chubb and Hunt can produce in favorable game scripts. This projects to be one of those games.
Javonte Williams played on 34 snaps compared to Melvin Gordon's 32 snaps and touched the ball 15 times in Week 1. He now gets an incredible matchup against an embarrassing Jaguars' franchise that just got beat down by the expansion-level Houston Texans. Williams only costs $4,400, has immense talent, and gets a Jaguars defense that ranked 31st in overall DVOA and 24th in run DVOA in 2020.
Chris Carson turned 19 total opportunities (16 carries and three targets) last week into 117 total yards and now gets to play in one of the best games of the week against a Titans defense that ranked 29th in overall DVOA and 16th in run DVOA last season. Carson offers a smart way to get a connection to Russell Wilson on our tournament teams without actually rostering Wilson stacks, which opens up these specific teams to go after other pass catchers tied to great Quarterbacks in favorable matchups.
Wide Receivers
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | DK Metcalf | vs. Titans | $7,600 |
2 | Chris Godwin | vs. Falcons | $6,600 |
3 | Stefon Diggs | at Dolphins | $7,700 |
4 | Mike Evans | vs. Falcons | $6,100 |
5 | Mike Williams | vs. Cowboys | $6,100 |
6 | A.J. Brown | at Seahawks | $6,900 |
7 | Tee Higgins | at Bears | $5,400 |
8 | Marquez Callaway | at Panthers | $4,200 |
9 | Jarvis Landry | vs. Texans | $6,300 |
10 | Courtland Sutton | at Jaguars | $5,200 |
11 | Jakobi Meyers | at Jets | $5,100 |
12 | K.J. Hamler | at Jaguars | $3,800 |
The Titans at Seahawks game has one of the highest Over/Unders of the week and the matchup is phenomenal as Tennessee's defense ranked 29th in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA a season ago, they just got shredded by Kyler Murray in Week 1, and they'll be without their Safety Amani Hooker due to injury. I wrote up Russell Wilson earlier and DK Metcalf is my favorite player to pair him with in tournaments. Metcalf didn't blow up in Week 1 like Tyler Lockett did but he still caught four of five targets for 60 yards and a touchdown. He's coming off a 1,303 yard-10 touchdown season in 2020 and Seattle once again projects to have a narrow target distribution, which will funnel more targets Metcalf's way, especially with D'Wayne Eskridge likely missing this game due to a concussion.
There can be a tendency for DFS players to overlook solid Wide Receivers with locked-in target volume in tournaments because they're too "safe" and don't offer enough upside. The overall process of this foundational belief is a fallacy because target volume can lead to monster games in PPR formats. And that leads us to Chris Godwin. Godwin isn't the "sexiest" play and doesn't get you extremely excited when locking him into your lineup but he does produce, so we should probably focus on that. Godwin caught nine of 13 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown while playing on 98% of the offensive snaps in Tampa Bay's opener and has a 1,333 yard-nine touchdown season on his resume. He now gets to attack a Falcons defense that ranked 19th in pass DVOA in 2020 and that just gave up 264 yards and three touchdowns to Jalen Hurts in Week 1.
Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs both struggled last week facing a Steelers defense that ranked first in overall DVOA and first in pass DVOA last season. But I wrote up Allen in the Quarterback section stating this presents a buying opportunity and of course, Diggs is the player to stack him with. Diggs saw an insane 166 targets last season and tallied season-long totals of 127 catches for 1,535 yards and eight touchdowns. Through one game here in 2021, absolutely nothing about Diggs' situation has changed. He caught nine of 12 targets for 69 yards last Sunday and remains the centerpiece of the Bills' offense.
The Buccaneers are 12 point home favorites this week against the Falcons and their vulnerable defense that ranked 19th in pass DVOA in 2020 and that just gave up 264 yards and three touchdowns to Jalen Hurts in Week 1. This is a classic "Take advantage of recency bias" spot after Mike Evans only caught three of six targets for 24 yards in the opener. Let's zoom out and look at the bigger picture here: Evans played on 94% of the offensive snaps in Week 1, has posted seven straight seasons of 1,000+ receiving yards, and caught 13 touchdown passes in 2020 from Tom Brady.
The new Chargers' coaching staff talked up Mike Williams all offseason as a player they wanted to involve more in their offense and through one week it appears they were telling the truth. Williams caught eight of 12 targets for 82 yards and a touchdown last Sunday and now gets to play at home in the best fantasy game of the week against a banged-up Cowboys defense that already ranked 23rd in overall DVOA and 21st in pass DVOA a year ago.
The Titans at Seahawks game offers shootout potential but we need the Titans passing offense to hold up their end of the bargain. If they can, game stacks in this one make sense as leverage over the likely more popular Cowboys/Chargers game. A.J. Brown is a superstar in the making currently only being held back by not receiving significant target volume. Brown has posted over 1,000 receiving yards in back-to-back seasons and has only seen 84 and 106 total targets in those years, respectively. Week 1 did not provide promising developments here either as Brown only saw seven targets despite Tennessee playing from behind essentially the entire time against Arizona. Still, looking at the rest of Tennessee's roster, I remain bullish the year three additional target volume bump is coming for Brown. New offensive coordinator, Todd Downing, appears to be the only thing currently standing in our way. But let's remember we're trying to beat out thousands of others and win tournaments here and the process of rostering an alpha at a low ownership percentage in a great game checks out.
The Bengals have a solid matchup this week with a Bears defense that looked lost without Kyle Fuller and that just got shredded by Matthew Stafford a week ago. JaMarr Chase is the beloved Cincinnati pass catcher at the moment after posting five catches on only seven targets for 101 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 1. But Tee Higgins had a solid game in his own right, catching four of five targets for 58 yards and a touchdown. Higgins was a solid collegiate prospect, was drafted in the second round, and put up 908 yards and six touchdowns last season even with Joe Burrow going down due to injury.
Marquez Callaway essentially did nothing in Week 1 and burned a lot of DFS players in the process but they beat down the Packers so bad in such an odd game we must be very careful about the conclusions we draw from that one contest sample size. Callaway still projects as the clear-cut WR1 on the Saints with both Michael Thomas and TreQuan Smith on Injured Reserve and the playing time last Sunday showed that. Callaway played on 52 of 62 total snaps and the next closest Saints' Wide Receiver played on only 27 snaps. And this is a very intriguing fantasy game and favorable matchup for Callaway who gets a Panthers defense that ranked 24th in overall DVOA and 23rd in pass DVOA a season ago.
Odell Beckham will once again not play this week and that increases Jarvis Landry's outlook. Landry played on 51 of 59 snaps in Week 1 and now gets to play at home against an awful Texans defense that ranked 30th in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA a season ago. They project to be even worse this season.
Jerry Jeudy won't play in this one, which increases Courtland Sutton's outlook. Many are likely still nervous about Sutton's health returning from a 2020 ACL injury yet Sutton did play on 53 of 66 snaps in Week 1. We know he'll be out there, the matchup is great against a Jaguars defense that ranked 31st in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA last season and that just got shredded by Tyrod Taylor of all players in Week 1, and Sutton just posted over 1,100 yards in 2019 while dealing with terrible Quarterback play. And then there's K.J. Hamler who has 4.32 40-yard dash speed and projects to be directly replacing Jeudy in the slot. Hamler was one dropped touchdown away from a huge day in Week 1 and he's plenty talented to turn the drops around this week. It also helps he only costs $3,800.
Jakobi Meyers played on 74 of 75 snaps and saw nine targets in Week 1. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels love Meyers and so should we. Like Chris Godwin, Meyers doesn't feel like a very exciting player to roster in DFS but those receptions add up. And the matchup is a favorable one here against a Jets defense that ranked 21st in overall DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA a season ago. New Jets head coach, Robert Saleh, provides an upgrade for New York's defense but he doesn't play the game and the Jets' secondary is still atrocious. The Jets will also be without Safety Lamarcus Joyner in this one.
Tight Ends
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | George Kittle | at Eagles | $6,400 |
2 | Noah Fant | at Jaguars | $4,200 |
3 | Gerald Everett | vs. Titans | $3,600 |
4 | Tyler Higbee | at Colts | $4,100 |
5 | Austin Hooper | vs. Texans | $3,800 |
George Kittle played on 52 of 55 snaps last week, saw five targets, and put up 78 receiving yards. Deebo Samuel was the superstar in Week 1 but with the 49ers' Running Back injuries and Brandon Aiyuk possibly still somewhat relegated to Kyle Shanahan's doghouse, Kittle could be the storyline on Sunday in a favorable fantasy game against vulnerable Eagles linebackers. And with other solid more affordable options available to us, I don't expect Kittle's ownership percentages to get out of hand.
Noah Fant played on 51 of 66 snaps and caught six of eight targets for 62 yards in the season opener. Fant is in his third season and projects as a go-to player for the competent Teddy Bridgewater. He'll benefit from Jerry Jeudy's absence and has a favorable matchup here against a Jaguars defense that ranked 31st in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA last season and that just got shredded by Tyrod Taylor of all players in Week 1. And the $4,200 price tag for Fant is so affordable. He should cost about $1,000 more. Take advantage.
Gerald Everett split snaps with Will Dissly in Week 1, which was not great to see. Yet Dissly only averaged 1.8 targets per game in 2020 so I remain very bullish Everett will be the alpha between these two at the season's end. At only $3,600, Everett makes sense in our Russell Wilson stacks in a favorable fantasy game and matchup.
Tyler Higbee played on 100% of the snaps in Week 1, is now Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay's full-time Tight End, and gets to play in the dome in Indianapolis against a Colts defense that just gave up four touchdown passes to Russell Wilson on only 23 attempts. He's priced at only $4,100.
Austin Hooper shared time with David Njoku in Week 1. We don't love to see that but we do love to see a cupcake opponent on the schedule this week. We know the Browns love to utilize their Tight Ends and that will lead to Hooper producing some big games. This could be one of them against an awful Texans defense. Hooper only costs $3,800 and I expect him to be 5% owned or lower.
Team Defenses
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Pittsburgh Steelers | vs. Raiders | $3,000 |
2 | Denver Broncos | at Jaguars | $3,800 |
3 | Cincinnati Bengals | at Bears | $2,900 |
The Steelers ranked first in overall DVOA, first in pass DVOA, and fifth in run DVOA last season and they just made life miserable for 2020 MVP candidate Josh Allen in Week 1. They now get to face an average Raiders offense that will be without both starting Guards, Denzelle Good and Richie Incognito, as well as Running Back Josh Jacobs. Las Vegas has a low Implied Team Total (20.5) as well.
Denver could be getting Bradley Chubb back this week to pair with Von Miller and a solid defense all around, led by Vic Fangio, one of the best defensive minds in football. They get the Jaguars this week who just got humiliated by Houston a week ago and who has one of the lowest Implied Team Totals (19.5) of the week.
The Bengals play really comes down to betting against Andy Dalton, which typically is a profitable venture. Dalton does not belong on an NFL field in 2021, especially with first-round pick Justin Fields waiting in the wings. But alas, here we are. I'm picking Cincinnati to win this game outright and if that plays out, their defense could make enough plays against Dalton to get home in tournaments.
Key Injuries and Suspensions
- Odell Beckham OUT - Upgrade Jarvis Landry, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Anthony Schwartz, Austin Hooper, and David Njoku
- Raheem Mostert OUT - Upgrade Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon
- Jerry Jeudy OUT - Upgrade Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, K.J. Hamler, and Noah Fant
- Michael Gallup OUT and Chris Harris OUT - Upgrade Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Cedrick Wilson
- Amani Hooker (Titans DB) OUT - Upgrade Seahawks passing game
- Demarcus Lawrence OUT (Cowboys DE) - Upgrade Chargers offense
- Anthony Barr (Vikings LB) and Everson Griffen (Vikings DE) are both OUT and Eric Kendricks (Vikings LB) is Questionable - Upgrade the Cardinals offense
- Will Fuller OUT - Upgrade DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle
- La'el Collins OUT (Cowboys RT) - Upgrade Chargers D/ST
- Mekhi Becton (Jets LT) OUT - Upgrade Patriots D/ST
- Josh Jacobs OUT - Upgrade Kenyan Drake and Darren Waller
- Denzelle Good and Richie Incognito (Raiders Guards) OUT - Upgrade Steelers D/ST
- Bryan Bulaga (Chargers RT) OUT - Upgrade - Cowboys D/ST
- Rashaad Penny OUT - Upgrade Chris Carson
- Marcus Davenport (Saints DE) OUT and Marshon Lattimore Game Time Decision - Upgrade Panthers offense
- Lamarcus Joyner (Jets S) - Upgrade Patriots offense
- D'Wayne Eskridge Doubtful - Upgrade Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, and DK Metcalf
- Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and CeeDee Lamb
- Najee Harris and Steelers D/ST
- Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and Justin Jefferson
Flag Plant Plays
- Alvin Kamara
- DK Metcalf
- Russell Wilson
- George Kittle
- Noah Fant
- Steelers D/ST