Cracking DraftKings Week 12

Photo: Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports

Favorite Games

• Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers - Over/Under 47
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts - Over/Under 53
• Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 49
• Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 44.5
• Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars - Over/Under 46

Favorite Additional Spots

• Chargers on the road against the Broncos - Implied Team Total 25.25
• Patriots at home vs. the Titans - Implied Team Total 25.25
• Texans at home vs. the Jets - Implied Team Total 23.5
• Panthers on the road against the Dolphins - Implied Team Total 22
• Eagles on the road against the Giants - Implied Team Total 24.5

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers is fighting through a toe injury and just lost his starting Center, Elgton Jenkins, for the season so he's not a bulletproof cash play by any means but only ten games on the main slate will create some interesting decisions. Rodgers torched the Vikings last Sunday, throwing for 385 yards and four touchdowns, and now gets to play at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week. He leads a Green Bay offense that ranks fifth in overall DVOA and eighth in pass DVOA.

Jalen Hurts ranks third in DraftKings' points per game out of all Quarterbacks on the main slate this week. He just keeps getting it done week after week and offers the dual-threat floor and ceiling combination we love. Hurts ranks ninth in the entire league in rush yards (618) and fifth in rush touchdowns (8) and currently leads an Eagles offense that ranks seventh in overall DVOA and 11th in pass DVOA.

Cam Newton is arbitrage Jalen Hurts and $1,700 cheaper. In his first start of the season last week, Newton threw for 189 yards and two touchdowns and added 46 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Newton should be able to stay hot out of the gate as he has a favorable matchup this week against a Dolphins defense that ranks 20th in overall DVOA and 21st in pass DVOA.

Justin Herbert ranks fourth in the league in both pass touchdowns per game (2.2) and pass yards (292.7). Last Sunday night, Herbert put on a clinic throwing for 382 yards and three touchdowns while adding 90 yards on the ground. His dual-threat upside while leading a Chargers offense that ranks third in overall DVOA and sixth in pass DVOA is scintillating. The matchup this week is decent as the Broncos defense ranks 26th in overall DVOA and 17th in pass DVOA.

Running Backs

Christian Mccaffrey ranks fifth in the league in opportunities per game (21.5) and in his third game back from injury, played on 90% of the offensive snaps last Sunday. McCaffrey is all the way back and has a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 20th in overall DVOA.

Jonathan Taylor had a fantasy game for the ages last week rushing 32 times for 185 yards and four touchdowns while adding three receptions for 19 yards and a touchdown in the receiving game. Taylor ranks sixth in the league in opportunities per game (21), first in rush yards (1,122), and first in rush touchdowns (13). Taylor has a tough matchup against Tamp Bay's front-seven but he's full-on matchup-proof at this point.

Austin Ekeler ranks 11th in opportunities per game (18.1) and is tied for second in the entire league in total touchdowns (13) thanks to his dual-threat skillset. Ekeler has a favorable matchup on tap this week against a Broncos defense that ranks 26th in overall DVOA and 28th in run DVOA.

Aaron Jones reportedly has a chance to return this week but even so, look for A.J. Dillon to lead Green Bay's backfield in a fun fantasy game against the Rams. Dillon has seen 40 opportunities and caught all eight of his targets over the past two weeks. He's still priced at only $5,900.

Wide Receivers

You know the deal with Cooper Kupp. He leads the league in targets per game (11.6), receptions (85), receiving yards (1141), and is tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns (10) with Mike Evans.

Davante Adams ranks tied for third in targets per game (10.6), fourth in receptions (72), third in receiving yards (979), and has scored five times. He gets to play in one of the best fantasy games of the week.

Deebo Samuel only caught one pass last week and still put up 16.4 DraftKings points thanks to eight rush attempts for 79 yards and a touchdown on the ground. With Elijah Mitchell operating at less than 100% even if he plays and JaMycal Hasty missing another game, look for Samuel to continue seeing opportunities out of the backfield in addition to his massive receiving upside. Samuel ranks tied for 12th in targets per game (8.8) and second in receiving yards (994).

Justin Jefferson ranks 11th in targets per game (8.9), tied for seventh in receptions (63), fourth in receiving yards (944), and has scored six times. The 5-5 Vikings are fighting for their playoff lives and wisely have funneled Jefferson 21 targets over the past two weeks, which resulted in two victories. Look for Jefferson's increased volume to continue in this one against a 49ers defense that ranks 22nd in pass DVOA.

Keenan Allen ranks tied for third in targets per game (10.6), third in receptions (74), eighth in receiving yards (810), and has scored twice. Allen is quietly producing another incredible fantasy season playing in a Chargers offense that ranks third in overall DVOA and sixth in pass DVOA. And he has a solid matchup this week against a Broncos defense that ranks 26th in overall DVOA and 17th in pass DVOA.

Diontae Johnson ranks tied for third in targets per game (10.6), tied for 11th in receptions (59), 17th in receiving yards (714), and has scored four times. JuJu Smith-Schuster was lost for the season earlier in the year, Eric Ebron will miss extended time, and Chase Claypool is reportedly playing through a "bad" case of turf toe. Johnson will continue to consistently produce and will be needed this week in a competitive Division battle against a Bengals defense that ranks 19th in pass DVOA.

Brandon Aiyuk is completely back. Here are his offensive snap percentages over the past four weeks: 88%, 93%, 90%, and 93%. Aiyuk has seen at least seven targets in three of those four games and now will play at home in a competitive matchup between two 5-5 teams fighting for their playoff lives. Aiyuk will be needed and is priced at only $5,300.

Tight Ends

George Kittle has scored in three straight games since returning from injury and has seen 21 total targets over that span. Look for the 49ers to continue featuring Kittle as they fight for their playoff lives.

Eric Ebron scored a touchdown last week but got injured and will now miss extended time. That's significant since Pat Freiermuth's playing time has slipped upon Ebron's return. Freiermuth now projects to return to around a 75% offensive snap share against a Bengals defense that ranks 19th in pass DVOA.

Team Defenses

Tennessee's offense is decimated with injuries. They'll likely be without A.J. Brown and Jeremy McNichols as neither has practiced all week. They're already without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones, and Marcus Johnson. They recently cut Adrian Peterson and Josh Reynolds. They just barely anything left. And now they have to play on the road against a Patriots defense that ranks second in overall DVOA. The Titans have the lowest Implied Team Total (18.75) of the entire week.

Daniel Jones has only thrown nine touchdown passes all season, which is likely a big reason why the Giants just fired their offensive coordinator, Jason Garrett. The Giants' offense is currently in shambles and they have the sixth-lowest Implied Team Total (21) of the week.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Tyrod Taylor has now been back in the lineup following an early-season injury for two games and he reminded us of his dual-threat upside last Sunday, rushing for 28 yards and two touchdowns. Priced at only $5,300, Taylor is in one of the best spots imaginable playing at home against a Jets defense that ranks dead last in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA.

Joe Mixon has been performing very well and the rhetoric out there now is the Bengals have become a running team. We want to attack these narratives in tournaments since getting to the top of the leaderboard is all that matters. Joe Burrow still has JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd at his disposal and gets to play at home against a Steelers defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA. This isn't the Steel Curtain defense of old. They can be had and Burrow has the talent and weapons around him to make it happen.

Ho-hum. Tom Brady leads the league in both pass yards per game (317.7) and pass touchdowns per game (2.9) and has the Buccaneers offense ranked first in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. And he's now playing in the game with the highest Over/Under of the entire week against a Colts defense that only ranks 20th in pass DVOA.

Matthew Stafford had a few poor performances prior to the Rams' Week 11 bye. Yet, he still ranks third in pass yards per game (301.4) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.4) on the season. Recency bias will cause many to fade Stafford, making him a solid tournament option in one of the best fantasy games of the week. Green Bay's defense has been solid this season but they by no means are impenetrable. Kirk Cousins proved that last week throwing for 341 yards and three touchdowns on the Packers.

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ranks third in opportunities per game (24.1) and fifth in rush yards (734) yet he's only scored four total touchdowns. Cook's significant volume should lead to positive regression in the touchdown department very soon, which makes him a solid tournament play as the masses will continue to overlook him for other studs as well as affordable options.

Joe Mixon ranks seventh in opportunities per game (20.6), has scored in seven straight games, and has scored in eight of ten games on the season. Mixon now gets to play at home against a Steelers defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 16th in run DVOA.

Cordarrelle Patterson's status is still in question so this is a situation worth monitoring. If he's cleared to play, Patterson projects to continue his awesome season against a Jaguars defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA. Patterson ranks 23rd in the entire league in total yards (776) and has scored seven total touchdowns. And Calvin Ridley remains out for the Falcons.

Darrell Henderson averages a solid 17.8 opportunities per game for a Rams offense that ranks second in overall DVOA and ninth in run DVOA. He gets to play at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week against a Packers defense that ranks 26th in run DVOA. This is a great tournament spot since the Rams just had their bye and put up a few poor performances prior to it. Recency bias will push Henderson's ownership percentage way down this week.

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman only ranks tied for 33rd in targets per game (7.4) yet ranks tied for 14th in receptions (57), 11th in receiving yards (752), and he's scored five times. Pittman has been incredible in his sophomore season and projects to be needed in a big way this week with the Colts 3 point underdogs against the 7-3 Buccaneers. The best way to attack Tampa Bay's defense is through their banged-up secondary, so leveraging Pittman as a tournament play off of the chalky Jonathan Taylor makes a ton of sense.

Mike Williams' price tag has tanked all the way down to $5,700 despite his 97 yards and a touchdown performance on Sunday Night Football last week. Williams ranks 18th in receiving yards (705) and tied for seventh in receiving touchdowns (7). He's a big-play threat playing in a Chargers offense that ranks third in overall DVOA and sixth in pass DVOA. And he has a solid matchup this week against a Broncos defense that ranks 26th in overall DVOA and 17th in pass DVOA. Especially at the affordable price tag, Williams is worth getting some exposure to in tournaments.

JaMarr Chase ranks tied for 22nd in targets per game (7.9), sixth in receiving yards (867), and tied for third in receiving touchdowns (8). Chase is a big-play threat who has only posted a two-touchdown day on the Steelers earlier in the year. Playing at home against a Steelers defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA, Chase makes a ton of sense as a tournament stack with Joe Burrow. But why stop there? Tee Higgins averages 7.5 targets per game in his own right and has positive regression coming in the touchdown department after scoring in Weeks 1-2 and then being held scoreless since. The Burrow, Chase, Higgins double stack is one of my favorites of the week.

Antonio Brown will miss another game, leaving Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as the obvious top-two Wide Receiver options for Tom Brady in the game with the highest Over/Under of the entire week against a Colts defense that only ranks 20th in pass DVOA. Evans' status is one to monitor as he did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday this week. But if he's a go, both are top-tier options.

Playing in one of the best spots imaginable at home against a Jets defense that ranks dead last in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA, Brandin Cooks all of a sudden becomes very relevant this week. Cooks ranks 15th in the entire league in targets per game (8.7) and has seen 53 more targets than his next closest teammate.

Odell Beckham was traded to the Rams and Robert Woods was lost for the season in a small timespan just days before their Week 10 game. Naturally, Beckham only played on 15 offensive snaps in his first game after only being with the team for a few days. But things get very interesting now since Sean McVay has had two weeks (Rams had their bye in Week 11) to not only incorporate Beckham into the offensive gameplan, but likely elevate him to a full-time player in the absence of Robert Woods. This is a situation where the masses will want to see it before they believe it with Beckham on the Rams. But I'm putting my money where my mouth is in hopes of striking gold since Beckham clearly wasn't the main problem in Cleveland, Baker Mayfield was. Stack Beckham with Matthew Stafford and let's see what happens.

D.J. Chark was lost for the season earlier in the year, and now Jamal Agnew joins him on the sideline. Whether Urban Meyer wants to or not, he'll likely be forced to increase Laviska Shenault's playing time and opportunities moving forward with Marvin Jones and Dan Arnold being the only other quality pass-catchers left in Jacksonville. Priced at only $4,400 and sure to be low owned, I'm willing to bet on Shenault's talent this week in a home matchup against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA. And per ESPN's Field Yates, this week Meyer is mentioning getting Shenualt some touches out of the backfield.

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski leads all Tight Ends on this main slate in DraftKings points per game yet is priced at only $4,400. Gronk finally returned to the lineup last week and made it through the entire game healthy. He played on 59% of the offensive snaps and caught six of eight targets for 71 yards. He's back and is too affordable not to play, especially with Antonio Brown missing another game.

The continued absence of Calvin Ridley increases Kyle Pitts' chances of having a blowup game in this favorable matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA. Few Tight Ends offer as much upside as Pitts in general, and this looks like a good matchup for Pitts to take advantage.

Dallas Goedert returned to the lineup last week to play on 96% of the offensive snaps after suffering a concussion in Week 10. Goedert is a full-time player and if we can catch Jalen Hurts at the right time in terms of a solid passing yardage day, Goedert is likely to correlate with Hurts in terms of production.

Arnold's zero target game in Week 10 was awful but prior to that, Arnold had hit double-digit DraftKings points in four of five games with the Jaguars excluding the Thursday Night Game where he had only been with the team for a few days. He had also seen at least seven targets in four of his last five games as well. I'd be interested in playing Arnold in tournaments regardless, but I definitely am now that Jamal Agnew was lost due to injury. We can go right back to the well with Arnold in a home matchup against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA.

Team Defenses

Zach Wilson gets the start for the Jets this week, which is good news for the Texans D/ST. Wilson has thrown nine interceptions and only four touchdowns on the season and hasn't played in weeks. Houston is priced at only $2,300, allowing us flexibility with the rest of our lineups.

The Steelers have the fifth-lowest Implied Team Total (20.25) of the week and are on the road in Cincinnati. The Bengals are seven-point favorites and their D/ST is only priced at $2,700.

Atlanta's offense was completely inept last week against the Patriots. The difference between New England and Jacksonville's defenses is enormous so I expect the Falcons to put on a much better show this week. However, from a tournament standpoint, it's important to realize the Jaguars D/ST is only $2,200, Calvin Ridley is still out for Atlanta, and Qadree Ollison now looks like he'll miss this game as well. If Jacksonville produces at home we'll be in business thanks to their extremely affordable salary.

Key Injuries and Suspensions

• Aaron Jones likely OUT - Upgrade A.J. Dillon if Jones sits
• Calvin Ridley still OUT - Upgrade Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Russell Gage
• Mike Evans DNP Wednesday and Thursday and Antonio Brown OUT - Upgrade Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Johnson, and Scotty Miller
• A.J. Brown DNP Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday and Julio Jones and Marcus Johnson OUT - Upgrade Dez Fitzpatrick, Chester Rogers, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Geoff Swaim
• Elijah Mitchell's status is up in the air and JaMycal Hasty OUT - Upgrade Jeff Wilson and Deebo Samuel
• Eric Ebron OUT - Upgrade Pat Freiermuth
• Michael Carter OUT - Upgrade Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman
• Jamal Agnew OUT - Upgrade Marvin Jones, Dan Arnold, Laviska Shenault, and Laquon Treadwell
• Qadree Ollison likely OUT - Upgrade Cordarrelle Patterson, Mike Davis, and Wayne Gallman
• Robert Tonyan Jr OUT and Allen Lazard likely IN - Upgrade Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, and Randall Cobb
• Adrian Peterson cut and Jeremy McNichols DNP on Thursday and Friday - Upgrade Dontrell Hilliard and D'Onta Foreman
• DeVante Parker and Will Fuller both OUT - Upgrade Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, and Albert Wilson
• Jordan Howard likely OUT - Upgrade Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell
• Sterling Shepard likely OUT and Kadarius Toney DNP Wednesday and Thursday - Upgrade Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, and Evan Engram
• Joe Flacco and Mike White bout OUT - Upgrade Zach Wilson
• Corey Davis DNP Thursday - Upgrade Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder, and Keelan Cole

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase, and Tee Higgins
• Tyrod Taylor and Brandin Cooks
• Matthew Stafford and Odell Beckham
• Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski

Flag Plant Plays

• Tyrod Taylor
• Darrell Henderson
• Michael Pittman
• Odell Beckham
• Rob Gronkowski