- Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over/Under 53.5
- San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 48.5
- Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team - Over/Under 48
Favorite Additional Spots
- Chiefs at home vs. the Raiders - Implied Team Total 29
- Chargers at home vs. the Giants - Implied Team Total 26.25
- Seahawks on the road against the Texans - Implied Team Total 24.5
- Saints on the road against the Jets - Implied Team Total 24.25
- Broncos at home vs. the Lions - Implied Team Total 26.25
- Panthers at home vs. the Falcons - Implied Team Total 22
- Titans at home vs. the Jaguars - Implied Team Total 26.25
|1||Tom Brady||vs. Bills||$7,600|
|2||Patrick Mahomes II||vs. Raiders||$8,000|
|3||Taylor Heinicke||vs. Cowboys||$5,500|
|4||Joe Burrow||vs. 49ers||$6,000|
Tom Brady leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks first in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA and himself ranks first in both pass yards per game (314.3) pass touchdowns per game (2.8). He gets to play at home in the best fantasy game of the week with the highest Over/Under (53.5).
This season, Patrick Mahomes II hasn't lived up to the extremely high standards he has set for himself. Yet a major bright spot back in Week 10 was against this same Raiders defense that ranks 22nd in overall DVOA and 23rd in pass DVOA. Mahomes threw for 406 yards and five touchdowns that night. Mahomes has the talent and playmakers to produce a similar stat line every time he takes the field, and especially with this matchup. Vegas agrees as they have the Chiefs with the highest Implied Team Total (29) of the entire week.
This Cowboys at Washington game has the fourth-highest Over/Under (48) of the entire week. The home Quarterback, Taylor Heinicke, is priced at only $5,500 despite ranking ninth out of all Quarterbacks on the main slate in DraftKings points per game (17.6).
49ers at Bengals has the third-highest Over/Under (48.5) of the entire week and Joe Burrow gets to play at home against a 49ers defense that ranks 17th in pass DVOA and that will be without Corner Back Emmanuel Moseley and possibly Dontae Johnson as well. Burrow threw for 300 yards in a gutty performance last week and should've had, even more, had Ja'Marr Chase not dropped a dime in stride down the field.
|1||Antonio Gibson||vs. Cowboys||$6,000|
|2||Austin Ekeler||vs. Giants||$8,300|
|3||Leonard Fournette||vs. Bills||$7,400|
|4||Javonte Williams||vs. Lions||$5,900|
|5||Ezekiel Elliott||at Washington||$7,300|
J.D. McKissic is Questionable heading into Week 14 after missing last week with a concussion. Antonio Gibson looks set for another huge workload after averaging 27.5 opportunities per game over his past four performances. And thankfully, finally, Gibson has seen 13 targets over his past two games. Gibson is a talented dual-threat priced at only $6,000 playing at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week.
No Keenan Allen should increase Austin Ekeler's workload both on the ground and through the air. That's exciting since Ekeler already ranks 14th in the league in opportunities per game (18.3). The Chargers are nine-point home favorites and the Giants rank 31st in run DVOA.
Leonard Fournette ranks 12th in opportunities per game (18.5) and leads all Running Backs in receptions (58). Fournette is a dual-threat playing in a Buccaneers offense that ranks first in overall DVOA and second in run DVOA and in the best fantasy game of the week with the highest Over/Under (53.5).
Melvin Gordon III is listed as Questionable and Mike Boone is on the COVID list. Javonte Williams appears in line for another large workload after completely and utterly dominating in his first start on Sunday Night Football in Week 13, turning 31 total opportunities into 178 total yards and a touchdown. This performance likely surprised very few as it seems most realize the tantalizing talent Williams possesses. Prior to the season, I compared Williams to a young LeSean McCoy and that's looking pretty good so far. Even if Gordon plays and Williams shares some time, he's more than talented enough to deliver at only $5,900. The Broncos are 10.5 point favorites at home and will be playing with added passion in honor of Demaryius Thomas, who was taken from us far too soon. R.I.P. DT. And the matchup is terrific against a Lions defense that ranks 28th in overall DVOA and 23rd in run DVOA.
Tony Pollard is Questionable with a torn plantar fascia in his left foot which all of a sudden makes Ezekiel Elliott intriguing again in fantasy if Pollard does not play. Elliott ranks 12th in opportunities per game (18.5) and is playing in one of the best fantasy games of the week against a Washington defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA.
|1||Stefon Diggs||at Buccaneers||$8,100|
|2||Chris Godwin||vs. Bills||$7,100|
|3||Mike Evans||vs. Bills||$6,600|
|4||Hunter Renfrow||at Chiefs||$6,100|
|5||D.J. Moore||vs. Falcons||$6,200|
|6||Josh Palmer||vs. Giants||$3,000|
Stefon Diggs ranks tied for ninth in targets per contest (9) and is playing in a great fantasy game with the highest Over/Under (53.5) of the week. The Bills are 3.5 point road underdogs and their offensive identity revolves around the pass. No matter how you look at it, Josh Allen should throw a lot in this one, which should mean Diggs will be funneled targets.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are also playing in this great fantasy game with the highest Over/Under (53.5) of the week. They benefit from playing in a Buccaneers offense that ranks first in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA and with Tom Brady who ranks first in both pass yards per game (314.3) pass touchdowns per game (2.8). Antonio Brown remains out once again and Bills star Corner Back, TreDavious White, is out for the season. Godwin is my preferred play as he ranks tied for 11th in targets per game (8.8) but Evans averages a respectable 7.8 targets as well.
Henry Ruggs III III is long gone and Darren Waller will miss another week due to injury. Hunter Renfrow has now seen nine or more targets in four of his past five games. The Raiders are ten-point underdogs on the road in Kansas City so Renfrow's volume doesn't project to go anywhere but up in Week 14 against a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 20th in pass DVOA.
D.J. Moore ranks tied for seventh in the league in targets per game (9.3) and has an awesome matchup at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 29th in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA.
Okay, this one is a bit off the wall I will admit but Keenan Allen will miss Week 14 while on the COVID list and Josh Palmer has played on at least 30% of the offensive snaps in five straight games. Palmer profiles as a player more similar to Keenan Allen than Jalen Guyton is and thus, projects for a larger increase in value with Allen out. If rostering Palmer, you should understand scoring a zero is still within your range of outcomes and his ceiling isn't very high. However, priced at only $3,000, Palmer makes sense as a salary saver if needed who should catch a few passes.
|1||Rob Gronkowski||vs. Bills||$6,000|
|2||George Kittle||at Bengals||$6,900|
|3||Donald Parham||vs. Giants||$2,800|
Rob Gronkowski has seen target totals of 8, 9, and 8 over his past three games and has turned in a 100+ yard game and a two-touchdown game over his past two contests. Gronkowski is unstoppable right now and gets to play at home in the best fantasy game of the week.
Deebo Samuel is Questionable so this is important to monitor on Sunday since Kyle Shanahan funneled the offense through George Kittle last week with Samuel on the shelf. Kittle caught nine of 12 targets for 181 yards and two touchdowns in Week 13. Kittle once again offers a solid floor and ceiling combination in a game with the third-highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week.
Donald Parham has been a contributor in this Chargers offense all season and with Keenan Allen out while on the COVID list, his playing time and target volume projects to increase with Brandon Staley likely utilizing his Tight Ends even more than usual on Sunday. Parham is priced at only $2,800, which will free up salary at more important positions.
|1||Los Angeles Chargers||vs. Giants||$4,300|
|2||Seattle Seahawks||at Texans||$3,100|
The Chargers are nine-point home favorites against a Giants offense that will be led by Mike Glennon and that ranks 28th in overall DVOA, 27th in pass DVOA, and 28th in run DVOA. The Giants have the fourth-lowest Implied Team Total (16.75) of the entire week.
The Seahawks are 8.5 point favorites against a Texans offense that will be led by Davis Mills and that ranks dead last in overall DVOA, pass DVOA, and run DVOA. Houston has the third-lowest Implied Team Total (16) of the entire week.
|1||Taysom Hill||at Jets||$5,600|
|2||Dak Prescott||at Washington||$6,700|
|3||Russell Wilson||at Texans||$6,600|
|4||Cam Newton||vs. Falcons||$5,400|
Taysom Hill is a fantasy football cheat code. He didn't play well, throwing inaccurate passes all over the field and totaling four interceptions, in his first start last week against the Cowboys but for fantasy, it didn't matter. Hill still finished with 27.7 DraftKings points thanks to 101 rush yards and 264 pass yards and 2 pass touchdowns. Hill now gets to attack the worst defense in football. The Jets defense ranks dead last in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA and they rank 30th in run DVOA.
Tony Pollard is Questionable with a torn plantar fascia in his left foot and Ezekiel Elliott is still not 100% as he continues to deal with a bruised knee. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott finally has a fully healthy receiving corps in CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Dalton Schultz. This projects as a Prescott game through the air in a critical division battle against a Washington defense that ranks 30th in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. And Prescott has the goods to deliver as he has the Cowboys offense ranked seventh in overall DVOA and eighth in pass DVOA and himself ranks fifth in pass yards per game (288.2) and tied for fifth in pass touchdowns per game (2.1).
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks have had a rough season but there has been a glimmer of hope recently as Wilson just posted back-to-back games with 2+ touchdown passes for the first time since Weeks 1-2. And with Davis Mills likely squandering opportunity after opportunity for Houston's offense, expect Wilson to receive numerous chances to put up points in this one against a Texans defense that has allowed the third-most points (323) in the league.
Cam Newton had an absolutely dreadful performance his last time out but we're on to Week 14. Carolina had their bye last week, which presumably gave the Panthers a bit more time to get Newton up to speed. But regardless, Newton gets to play at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 29th in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. Newton offers dual-threat ability priced at only $5,400.
|1||Alvin Kamara||at Jets||$7,900|
|2||Josh Jacobs||at Chiefs||$6,200|
|3||Jeff Wilson||at Bengals||$4,400|
|4||Clyde Edwards-Helaire||vs. Raiders||$6,100|
Mark Ingram II and Ty Montgomery are both on the COVID list while simultaneously Alvin Kamara will finally return to the lineup. Kamara ranks third in the league in opportunities per game (23.8) and appears in line for a huge workload against a Jets defense that ranks dead last in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA and they rank 30th in run DVOA.
Kenyan Drake is out for the season and Josh Jacobs played on a season-high 85% of the offensive snaps last week. Jacobs has averaged 5.8 targets per game over his past five contests and despite this being a new trend, we should confidently trust Jacob's passing game usage since Jon Gruden, who incorrectly identified Jacobs as mainly a rusher and less of a pass catcher, is no longer coaching the team. Jacobs should receive plentiful chances to attack a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 26th in run DVOA.
Elijah Mitchell has been ruled out and despite a knee scare for Jeff Wilson earlier in the week, he does not have an injury designation heading into Sunday. Wilson projects as the lead back just as he was in Week 11 when he received 21 total opportunities. Wilson plays for a 49ers offense that ranks third in run DVOA and is priced at only $4,400. Playing in one of the best fantasy games of the week, Wilson will likely be low-owned as well.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has received 14 and 17 opportunities in his two games since returning from injury. Those are respectable totals, especially playing in this Chiefs offense. The Chiefs are ten-point home favorites, they have the highest Implied Team Total (29) of the entire week, and the Raiders defense ranks 22nd in overall DVOA.
|1||Mike Williams||vs. Giants||$6,000|
|2||CeeDee Lamb||at Washington||$7,200|
|3||Tyreek Hill||vs. Raiders||$8,500|
|4||Tyler Lockett||at Texans||$6,700|
|5||DK Metcalf||at Texans||$6,500|
|6||Ja'Marr Chase||vs. 49ers||$6,900|
|7||Amari Cooper||at Washington||$5,900|
|8||Brandon Aiyuk||at Bengals||$5,800|
Mike Williams has been on the COVID list all week but reports on Saturday were favorable in regards to Williams suiting up on Sunday. If he does, Williams projects to be a target hog while Keenan Allen misses the game on the COVID list. Williams is priced at only $6,000, projects to be low owned, and offers extreme upside when his high range of outcomes hits.
Tony Pollard is Questionable with a torn plantar fascia in his left foot and Ezekiel Elliott is still not 100% as he continues to deal with a bruised knee. Things are looking up for the Cowboys passing offense in a great fantasy game against a Washington defense that ranks 30th in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are both phenomenal tournament plays paired with Dak Prescott, who has the Cowboys offense ranked seventh in overall DVOA and eighth in pass DVOA.
Tyreek Hill ranks third in targets per game (10.6) and has an awesome matchup at home against a Raiders defense that ranks 22nd in overall DVOA and 23rd in pass DVOA. Hill just went seven for 83 and two touchdowns on 10 targets against this same defense in Week 10. And the Chiefs have the highest Implied Team Total (29) of the entire week.
With Davis Mills likely squandering opportunity after opportunity for Houston's offense, expect the Seahawks passing offense to receive numerous chances to put up points in this one against a Texans defense that has allowed the third-most points (323) in the league. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf rarely both go off in the same game, and everyone knows this, but could this possibly be the week? If so, very few others will have upside stacks as good as this one on Sunday.
This 49ers at Bengals game has the third-highest Over/Under (48.5) of the entire week and the Bengals get to play at home against a 49ers defense that ranks 17th in pass DVOA and that will be without Corner Back Emmanuel Moseley and possibly Dontae Johnson as well. Ja'Marr Chase projects to receive numerous opportunities to break some big plays on the outside. He's due to convert on at least one of them and if so, you'll have the upside in your lineup at likely low ownership percentages.
Deebo Samuel is Questionable so this is important to monitor on Sunday. But either way, Brandon Aiyuk has now played on 88% or more of the offensive snaps in six straight games and received six or more targets in five of his past six contests. And this is a fun fantasy game with the third-highest Over/Under (48.5) of the entire week.
|1||Travis Kelce||vs. Raiders||$7,400|
|2||Jared Cook||vs. Giants||$3,200|
|3||Foster Moreau||at Chiefs||$4,000|
|4||Austin Hooper||vs. Ravens||$3,400|
Patrick Mahomes II threw for 406 yards and five touchdowns against the Raiders in Week 10 and Travis Kelce put up 22.9 DraftKings points despite not finding the end zone. The favorable matchup at home against a Raiders defense that ranks 22nd in overall DVOA and 23rd in pass DVOA should allow for a Kelce bounce back on Sunday and the Chiefs have the highest Implied Team Total (29) of the entire week.
Keenan Allen is out for Week 14 while on the COVID list which caused me to write up both Josh Palmer and Donald Parham in cash due to their bare minimum salaries despite their upside limitations. Jared Cook on the other hand actually offers upside and is strangely priced at only $3,200 in his own right. Cook ranks fourth on the team in targets behind only Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler.
Darren Waller is out once again, which means Foster Moreau will make another start. In two games this year without Waller, Moreau has played on 100% and 85% of the offensive snaps and seen target totals of six and three, respectively. The Raiders are ten-point underdogs on the road against a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 20th in pass DVOA.
The Browns offense heavily utilizes their Tight Ends and with Harrison Bryant and David Njoku both out this week, Austin Hooper projects to see an increase in target volume against a Ravens defense that ranks 24th in overall DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA. Priced at only $3,400, Hooper is one of my favorite "sneaky" tournament plays of the week.
|1||Denver Broncos||vs. Lions||$3,800|
|2||New Orleans Saints||at Jets||$3,600|
|3||Cleveland Browns||vs. Ravens||$2,700|
The Lions will be without D'Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams is on the COVID list, and T.J. Hockenson is listed as Doubtful. Detroit is banged up and now must go play on the road in Denver where the Broncos will be playing with added passion in honor of Demaryius Thomas, who was taken from us far too soon. R.I.P. DT. The Lions have the second-lowest Implied Team Total (15.75) of the entire week.
Zach Wilson has had a horrifying rookie season and now must suit up without Corey Davis, Michael Carter, or Tevin Coleman in this one. Stud rookie Elijah Moore is also legitimately questionable after not practicing all week. The Saints are 5.5 point favorites and the Jets have the sixth-lowest Implied Team Total (18.75) of the entire week.
Looking for a low-owned salary saver? The Browns intercepted Lamar Jackson four times just two weeks ago and Jackson has been struggling as of late, only throwing three total touchdown passes over his past three games. The Browns are three-point home favorites in this one.
Key Injuries and Suspensions
- Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon both OUT - Upgrade Jeff Wilson
- Keenan Allen OUT - Upgrade Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Jared Cook, Donald Parham, Josh Palmer, and Jalen Guyton
- D'Andre Swift OUT and Jamaal Williams on the COVID list - Upgrade Godwin Igwebuike and Jermar Jefferson
- Darren Waller OUT - Upgrade Foster Moreau, Hunter Renfrow, DeSean Jackson, Bryan Edwards, and Zay Jones
- Mark Ingram II and Ty Montgomery both on the COVID list - Upgrade Alvin Kamara
- Kenyan Drake OUT - Upgrade Josh Jacobs
- TreDavious White OUT - Upgrade the Buccaneers passing attack
- Deebo Samuel Questionable - Upgrade George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk if Deebo sits
- Joe Mixon Questionable - Upgrade Samaje Perine
- J.D. McKissic Questionable - Upgrade Antonio Gibson
- Melvin Gordon III Questionable and Mike Boone on COVID list - Upgrade Javonte Williams
- Tony Pollard Questionable - Upgrade Ezekiel Elliott
- Brandin Cooks Questionable and Davis Mills starting at QB - Upgrade Seahawks D/ST
- Corey Davis OUT and Elijah Moore Questionable after not practicing all week - Upgrade Jamison Crowder, Ty Johnson, Denzel Mims, and Keelan Cole
- Antonio Brown OUT - Upgrade Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski
- A.J. Brown OUT - Upgrade Julio Jones and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
- Calvin Ridley OUT - Upgrade Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Russell Gage
- Logan Thomas OUT - Upgrade Ricky Seals-Jones
- T.J. Hockenson Doubtful - Upgrade Josh Reynolds, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Godwin Igwebuike
- Adrian Peterson and Travis Homer both OUT - Upgrade Alex Collins and Rashaad Penny
- David Njoku, Harrison Bryant, and Anthony Schwartz all OUT - Upgrade Austin Hooper, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, and Donovan Peoples-Jones
- Daniel Jones and Kadarius Toney both OUT and Sterling Shepard and Kenny Golladay both Questionable - Upgrade Chargers D/ST
- Michael Carter and Tevin Coleman both OUT - Upgrade Ty Johnson and Austin Walter
- Jamal Agnew and Dan Arnold OUT - Upgrade Marvin Jones Jr, Laviska Shenault Jr, Laquon Treadwell, and James O'Shaughnessy
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Antonio Gibson
- Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, and DK Metcalf
- Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Stefon Diggs
- Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase