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All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.
KNOW YOUR ENEMIES
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
Roster percentages at quarterback are typically flat on the main slate, and Week 1 will be no exception. Pricing is loose overall, however, which will allow plenty of entrants to start their builds with an expensive quarterback. Patrick Mahomes II ($8,100), Kyler Murray ($7,600), Josh Allen ($7,400), and Aaron Rodgers ($6,800) are each in stackable game environments. Those who would rather bargain shop at the position are most likely to spend down to Matt Ryan ($6,000) due to the popularity of his pass-catchers, or Joe Burrow ($5,700), whose wide receivers are mispriced relative to their season-long ADPs. Jameis Winston ($5,200) appears set to pick up steam as the public’s preferred punt play.
Flip the Build: Russell Wilson ($7,000) is a clear price pivot off the chalkier plays in the top tier. Seattle at Indianapolis has a 50-point over/under and is implied to stay close, yet not many seem to be targeting this game. The best part about pivoting to Wilson is that you know exactly where his production is going. If he has a huge game, your leverage will be maximized by stacking him with Tyler Lockett and/or DK Metcalf. Ryan Tannehill is also going overlooked playing opposite Murray in a potential shootout. Tennessee is favored at home, implied to score 27.5 points, and like Wilson, we know Tannehill’s passing production will run through his top two receivers.
Loose pricing usually means the field will spend up to secure a stud RB1. Expect to see one of Christian McCaffrey ($9,500), Dalvin Cook ($9,100), or Alvin Kamara ($8,600) anchoring the majority of lineups. Spending up at RB1 is made easier by DraftKings getting some prices wrong at running back. Joe Mixon ($6,200) and Antonio Gibson ($5,900), in particular, stand out as mispriced RB2s. Season-long players transitioning to DFS are used to drafting these guys in Round 2, but they’re priced for Week 1 as though they were picked in Rounds 4-6.
Flip the Build: Using an inexpensive RB1 is an easy path to a unique lineup, but comes with a steep opportunity cost. Significant exposure to McCaffrey, Cook, and Kamara appears warranted. There are, however, some intriguing RB2s that can be used to pivot off chalkier mid-priced options like Mixon and Gibson. Philadelphia at Atlanta is projected as high-scoring (ATL -3, O/U 48). What if Miles Sanders ($6,500) does most of the offensive damage for the Eagles? Nick Chubb ($7,200) is expensive for PPR formats and is being written off due to his lack of receiving upside. But if Mahomes and co. live up to their expectations, they’ll need to feel some pressure from Cleveland on the scoreboard, and the Chiefs rush defense is the path of least resistance.
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