DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 1

Photo: USA Today Sports

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.

QUARTERBACK

Roster percentages at quarterback are typically flat on the main slate, and Week 1 will be no exception. Pricing is loose overall, however, which will allow plenty of entrants to start their builds with an expensive quarterback. Patrick Mahomes II ($8,100), Kyler Murray ($7,600), Josh Allen ($7,400), and Aaron Rodgers ($6,800) are each in stackable game environments. Those who would rather bargain shop at the position are most likely to spend down to Matt Ryan ($6,000) due to the popularity of his pass-catchers, or Joe Burrow ($5,700), whose wide receivers are mispriced relative to their season-long ADPs. Jameis Winston ($5,200) appears set to pick up steam as the public’s preferred punt play.

Flip the Build: Russell Wilson ($7,000) is a clear price pivot off the chalkier plays in the top tier. Seattle at Indianapolis has a 50-point over/under and is implied to stay close, yet not many seem to be targeting this game. The best part about pivoting to Wilson is that you know exactly where his production is going. If he has a huge game, your leverage will be maximized by stacking him with Tyler Lockett and/or DK Metcalf. Ryan Tannehill is also going overlooked playing opposite Murray in a potential shootout. Tennessee is favored at home, implied to score 27.5 points, and like Wilson, we know Tannehill’s passing production will run through his top two receivers.

RUNNING BACK

Loose pricing usually means the field will spend up to secure a stud RB1. Expect to see one of Christian McCaffrey ($9,500), Dalvin Cook ($9,100), or Alvin Kamara ($8,600) anchoring the majority of lineups. Spending up at RB1 is made easier by DraftKings getting some prices wrong at running back. Joe Mixon ($6,200) and Antonio Gibson ($5,900), in particular, stand out as mispriced RB2s. Season-long players transitioning to DFS are used to drafting these guys in Round 2, but they’re priced for Week 1 as though they were picked in Rounds 4-6.

Flip the Build: Using an inexpensive RB1 is an easy path to a unique lineup, but comes with a steep opportunity cost. Significant exposure to McCaffrey, Cook, and Kamara appears warranted. There are, however, some intriguing RB2s that can be used to pivot off chalkier mid-priced options like Mixon and Gibson. Philadelphia at Atlanta is projected as high-scoring (ATL -3, O/U 48). What if Miles Sanders ($6,500) does most of the offensive damage for the Eagles? Nick Chubb ($7,200) is expensive for PPR formats and is being written off due to his lack of receiving upside. But if Mahomes and co. live up to their expectations, they’ll need to feel some pressure from Cleveland on the scoreboard, and the Chiefs rush defense is the path of least resistance.

WIDE RECEIVER

The slate’s most popular quarterbacks each have expensive WR1s. It’s safe to assume we’ll see lots of builds start with Allen-Stefon Diggs ($7,600), Murray-DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800), Rodgers-Davante Adams ($8,300), and Ryan-Calvin Ridley ($7,900). Spending heavily at quarterback, RB1, and WR1 is made possible by soft pricing on preseason standout Marquez Callaway ($3,700) and presumed Bengals WR1, Tee Higgins ($4,700).

Flip the Build: A balanced approach to wide receiver spending will cut against the grain. One way to pull it off while also adding some secondary correlation to your lineup is to target receivers in NY Jets at Carolina. The 44-point implied total is underwhelming, but the Jets have the league’s worst secondary. D.J. Moore ($6,100) and Robby Anderson ($5,700) are both capable of burning New York’s dismal defensive backs for a long touchdown. And if the Jets are trailing on the road in Zach Wilson’s NFL debut, preseason usage indicates Corey Davis ($4,900) will be heavily targeted against a mostly inexperienced Panthers secondary. Elijah Moore ($3,000) may pick up steam with the public now that Jamison Crowder has been announced out and Keelan Cole is a gametime decision.

TIGHT END

Travis Kelce ($8,300) and Tyreek Hill ($8,200) are close in salary. The greater depth at wide receiver should lead to Kelce out-rostering Hill in Mahomes stacks, and the league’s best tight end will also appear as a one-off play in common builds. More entrants figure to spend heavily at running back and wide receiver in favor of paying up for Kelce, which makes Kyle Pitts ($4,400) the favorite to end up the chalkiest player at the position.

Flip the Build: You won’t sneak George Kittle ($6,300) past your opponents, but he’s priced in tight end No Man’s Land. Rostering Kittle instantly gets you building in a different direction than 85-90% of the field, and his ceiling isn’t far off Kelce’s, especially with pocket-passer Jimmy Garoppolo confirmed as the 49ers starter.

CAN YOU TRUST THE CHALK?

The term chalk in sports betting refers to the heavily favored side of a bet. In DFS tournaments, these are the most popular players on the slate. Identifying and taking a stance on the chalk is an important part of tournament strategy. If you fade a chalky player, and he fails to deliver on his scoring projection, your lineups become positioned to pass a large chunk of the field in the standings. But when a player the crowd loves meets his lofty expectations and you choose to avoid him, your lineups can quickly get buried.

If you are entering multiple lineups, deciding whether to play or pass on chalky players is non-binary. The overall roster percentage of your lineup, how the player correlates to the rest of the lineup, and the size of the tournament you are entering all provide needed context.

Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s most popular players:

Christian McCaffrey (vs. NYJ, $9,500, 19% rostered)
McCaffrey is coming off a lost season, but he remains the safest bet for 25 DraftKings points the running back position has to offer. If you’re multi-entering, it’s fine to match the field’s exposure and use McCaffrey liberally as both a one-off option and as part of Carolina stacks. It may be worth noting the softest part of the Jets defense is their secondary, rather than their front seven, but McCaffrey’s all-purpose role and dual-threat ability supersede defensive matchups.

Marquez Callaway (vs. GB, $3,400, 18% rostered)
It didn’t take long for us to arrive at some shaky chalk. Callaway is cheap and he looked great catching passes from Jameis Winston (against Jacksonville’s defense) in the preseason. The sledding won’t be as easy In Week 1, as Winston faces pressure from Green Bay’s defensive front, led by Pro Bowl linebacker ZaDarius Smith. Callaway has problems of his own, namely a face-off against Jaire Alexander, arguably the best cornerback in the game. Is Callaway 20 times more likely to appear in a winning lineup than Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,700) in the same game? It’s doubtful, but that's what the roster projections imply. Avoid Callaway if you’re only making a single lineup and don’t exceed 7-9% if you’re multi-entering.

Kyle Pitts (vs. PHI, $4,400, 17% rostered)
Pitts and Callaway are the most obvious cost-saving options on the slate. Try to keep from playing them together in the same lineup to avoid falling into a similar roster construction as the majority of your opponents. As bright as Pitts’ immediate future looks, tight end scoring is highly volatile from week to week, he is a rookie tight end playing in his first NFL game, AND he’s probably going to appear in more lineups than any other tight end. It’s an easy fade from a game theory perspective, though Pitts is obviously talented enough for the move to backfire.

LEVERAGE PLAYS

You won’t necessarily be sneaking the players in this section past your opponents. But their roster rate and scoring projections are misaligned with the probability they can help you to a first-place finish. Play them at a higher rate than the field when multi-entering and consider them as pivot options off similarly-priced chalk plays if the overall roster percentage of your lineup is too high.

Russell Wilson (@IND, $7,000, 4% rostered)
There isn’t much to add on Wilson and the Seattle passing game that wasn’t already covered above or in this tweet from a few days back. As long as the public is leery of this game, Wilson stacks are an excellent leverage play in both small and large-field tournaments.

SEA @ IND appears slept on based on early % rostered I’ve seen.

OU near 50, projected close

All of Russ’ production goes to two guys. EZ stack

IND secondary is beatable

Run it back with cheap Pittman or Campbell

Chalk out the rest

— Phil (@PhilFBG) September 8, 2021

Chase Edmonds (@TEN, $4,600, 7% rostered)
Edmonds will draw some attention because he’s cheap and in a high-scoring game environment, but most entrants will use him as a one-off salary-saver at RB2 or flex. Don’t underestimate Edmonds’ usefulness on either side of a Cardinals-Titans stack. Edmonds commanded 68 targets while playing only 47% of Arizona’s offensive snaps in 2020. He’s positively correlated with Kyler Murray -- both in a neutral game script and if Tennessee forces the Cardinals into catchup mode. Likewise, he can be used opposite Ryan Tannehill and co. in hopes of a shootout. Edmonds will share with James Conner on base downs, but it feels modest enough to assign him half of Kenyan Drake’s vacated 16 carries per game. Where else are we getting 14-15 carries and three-to-five catches for less than $5K in what could end up the highest-scoring game of the week?

Justin Jefferson (@CIN, $7,700, 9% rostered)
Jefferson is getting lost in the sea of mega-producer WR1s in the $7.5-$8K range, providing us with an exciting leverage opportunity. This is the same player that topped 30 DraftKings points in three games as a rookie and broke Randy Moss’ rookie record for receiving yards. He was never half as likely to hit his Week 1 ceiling as Calvin Ridley ($7,900) as current roster projections indicate, and that was before Bengals cornerback Trey Waynes was ruled out with a hamstring injury. Jefferson will enjoy a mismatch against Chidobe Awuzi, who has struggled mightily in coverage after signing with Cincinnati as a free agent last off-season.

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