How To Value Your Dynasty Rookie Draft Picks

Photo: Ron Johnson, USA Today Sports

With the off-season in full swing, Dynasty leagues are becoming increasingly active, which means more trades are undoubtedly occurring. With the NFL Combine over, rookie fever is here, and it’s important to understand market values when it comes to 2023 rookie picks. You can use rookie picks in your Dynasty league differently, but understanding their value should be your priority when trading in Dynasty leagues. The best way to know how they are valued is by placing names and positions with each pick and understanding where tier breaks form. If you can identify the tier breaks now, you can decide what picks you should be looking to move or where the values lie. Let's dive into where those tiers are, what fantasy assets are valued for those picks, and some real-life trades processed in Superflex Dynasty leagues.

1.01 - Tier 1 - RB Bijan Robinson

There is only one player in tier one right now: Texas running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson comes into the draft as one of the most complete backs in recent memory. He also is one of the most valued Dynasty assets in recent memory that hasn’t stepped foot on an NFL field. If you hold the 1.01, you have one of the best assets in Dynasty. Based on market valuations, Robinson is valued as the third-best non-quarterback asset in all of fantasy. If your roster is ready to compete, the easy answer is to hold the pick, but if your team is not ready to compete, you could get a haul as a return. If you own the 1.01 and looking to acquire an elite Dynasty quarterback, this is the time to do so. Here are some recent deals involving the 1.01 that could help you decide how to value the first pick in your Dynasty leagues:

• 1.01/Jahan Dotson for Drake London/Treylon Burks/1.02
• Kenny Pickett/Christian Watson/1.01/3.01 for Josh Allen
• 1.01/Trey Lance for Jalen Hurts
• 1.01 for Chris Godwin/Josh Jacobs/Rachaad White/1.10
• 1.01 for A.J. Brown/2023 3rd

1.02 -1.04 - Tier 2 - QB Bryce Young/QB C.J. Stroud/QB Anthony Richardson

The second tier is the quarterback tier. If you have any picks in this range, you are playing with house money. With all three top quarterbacks still on their board here, you could use these picks to extract value in so many ways. In Superflex leagues, these picks are at a premium, and with Anthony Richardson’s performance at the NFL combine, we are seeing a significant value boost to these picks. With the quarterback position in flux, especially in Dynasty leagues, you must value these picks at a premium. Holding the pick and taking the BPA at the position seems like the move unless you have a set quarterback room. If so, elite assets can be acquired with these picks that could help you leap from being a rebuilding roster to a contender. You can also look to tier down from this tier to collect assets and still keep a first-round pick, preferably before the 1.10. Here are some recent deals involving these picks that could help you decide how to value them:

• Jamaal Williams/Ja’Marr Chase for K.J. Osborn/1.04/1.08/2024 1st
• 1.03/2.03/4.04 for Kyle Pitts/2.06
• 1.02/K.J. Hamler/Sam Howell for Cooper Kupp/Jamaal Williams/2025 5th
• 1.02/D.J. Moore for 1.01/2024 2nd
• 1.04/Desmond Ridder/Skyy Moore for Deshaun Watson/1.09
• 1.04/2024 2nd for George Pickens/1.09

1.05 -1.06 - Tier 3 - RB Jahmyr Gibbs/WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Tier three has two of the best position groups in the class. Some argue that one of these could be in Tier 2, but with Superflex, we are looking at potential values, and with the quarterback position weighted so highly that it bumps the top three into tier two. In this tier, we have the consensus WR1 in the class Smith-Njigba and a potential PPR machine in Gibbs. Their upside gives you plenty of value to look for, and these picks could allow you to get a top-12 Dynasty asset. They also allow you to acquire depth at the position while adding a 2024 first for next season. Here are some recent deals involving these picks that could help you decide how to value them:

• 1.05/Treylon Burks for Ryan Tannehill/1.08/2024 1st
• 1.05 for Mike Evans/David Njoku/Kareem Hunt/2.07
• 1.05/1.06 for Trevor Lawrence/Cade Otton
• 1.05/Treylon Burks for Ryan Tannehill/1.08/2024 1st
• 1.06/1.08/2024 2nd for Jaylen Waddle/2025 1st

1.07 -1.09 - Tier 4 - WR Jordan Addison/WR Quentin Johnston/RB Zach Charbonnet

The fourth tier in the first round is when you start seeing a value drop. These picks can be used to pair with either a proven veteran to tier up in your rankings or straight up to grab a veteran piece that could put you into contention. Some Dynasty managers will have either Jordan Addison or Quentin Johnston as their WR1 overall, and you could use that to your advantage here. Be sure to know your league-mates tendencies, what types of wide receivers they value, or what managers may need running back help. All those strategies come into play with these picks. Here are some recent deals involving these picks that could help you decide how to value them:

• 1.07 for Rhamondre Stevenson
• 1.07/Marquise Brown for Darnell Mooney/Travis Etienne
• 1.09/2024 2nd for Jerry Jeudy/3.04
• 1.08/4.09/Gabe Davis for Christian McCaffrey
• 1.09/2.10 for Stefon Diggs/2024 4th